tapebrief
ABNB · Q3 2025
ABNB · Q1 2026

ABNB · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Airbnb

Reported February 12, 2026

30-second summary

Q4 revenue grew 12% YoY to $2.778B, beating the top of the $2.66–2.72B guide by ~$60M, with nights & seats booked at 10% YoY (above the mid-single-digit guide) and Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin of 28%. More importantly, management guided Q1 2026 to 14–16% YoY revenue growth (~3pts of FX tailwind) and committed to FY2026 revenue acceleration to "at least low double digits" with stable EBITDA margin — the first concrete FY2026 framing, and a clear handoff from H2 2025's investment-heavy posture to an acceleration narrative built on hotels, expansion markets, and AI-native experience.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$0.56

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$2.78B

+12.0% YoY

Free cash flow

Q4 FY2025

$0.52B

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

9.7%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025
MetricQ4 FY2025YoYQ3 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$2.78B+12.0%$4.09B-32.2%
EPS$0.56—$2.21-74.7%
Operating margin9.7%—39.7%-2998bps
Free cash flow$0.52B—$1.35B-61.4%

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
RevenueQ4 FY2025$2.66B to $2.72B$2.778B+$0.06B above high end of guideBeat
Revenue YoY GrowthQ4 FY20257% to 10%12%+2–5pts above guideBeat
GBV GrowthQ4 FY2025low double-digits year-over-year16%+4–6pts above low double-digit rangeBeat
Nights and Seats Booked GrowthQ4 FY2025mid-single-digit range10%+3–5pts above mid-single-digit rangeBeat
Implied Take RateQ4 FY2025relatively flat year-over-year13.6%slight increase above flat guidanceBeat
Adjusted EBITDA MarginQ4 FY2025flat-to-down slightly year-over-year28%notably above flat guidanceBeat

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
Revenue YoY GrowthFY 2026at least low double digits—
Adjusted EBITDA MarginFY 2026stable year-over-year—
RevenueQ1 FY2026$2.59B to $2.63B14% to 16%
Revenue YoY GrowthQ1 FY202614% to 16%—
GBV GrowthQ1 FY2026low teens year-over-year—
Nights and Seats Booked GrowthQ1 FY2026high single-digit growth—

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025
Gross Booking Value (GBV)$20.4B
Nights and Seats Booked121.9M
GBV Y/Y Growth16%
Nights and Seats Booked Y/Y Growth10%
Average Daily Rate (ADR)$168
Implied Take Rate13.6%
Active Listings9M+

Profitability

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025
Adjusted EBITDA Margin28%

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q1 demand uncertainty → Q2 services investment commitment → Q3 multi-business expansion thesis → Q4 integrated "Airbnb trip" ecosystem with AI moat

The expansion thesis consolidated from "multiple sizable businesses" into a single integrated product vision. In Q2 services and experiences were framed as separate sizable businesses backed by $200M; in Q3 each became potentially "multi-billion dollar"; this quarter Chesky binds them: "The big idea here isn't just building a bunch of standalone businesses. These are all part of a much larger vision, the Airbnb trip. We are one app and one brand, where every part of the trip makes the other part stronger." This is a sharper articulation than prior calls — the strategic narrative has moved from a portfolio of bets to a flywheel argument, which is harder for investors to discount as scattered capital allocation.

AI shifted from operational lever (Q2: 15% contact reduction) to philosophical positioning (Q3: offline antidote) to competitive moat (Q4: native experience). The progression is now complete. Chesky's quote — "A chatbot can give you a list of homes. But it can't give you the unique points you find on Airbnb...By relaying AI over the entire Airbnb experience, we believe we're building something that's impossible to replicate" — marks a posture shift from defending against AI commoditization to claiming AI as proprietary infrastructure. The hire of Amit Aldali (former Llama lead) referenced in Q&A grounds the rhetoric.

The capital-allocation frame inverted relative to AI-spending peers. In Q3 Airbnb's investment posture was a margin headwind versus its own history. This quarter, against a backdrop of AI hyperscaler capex narratives, Chesky reframed Airbnb's model as the contrarian advantage: "What we're doing is finding small wins and scaling them profitably...we're able to generate free cash flow at nearly 40% of revenue." The 37.7% FY FCF margin is no longer a defense — it's offense against capex-heavy competitors.

Geographic expansion sharpened from "2x core growth" abstraction to country-level playbook. Brazil is now the proof point management is willing to name: top-5 market, #2 contributor to first-time bookers, validating the "go deep in a small number of priority countries" methodology. The framing has moved from share-shift statistics (Q2's 200bps LatAm-vs-NA) to country-specific case studies that imply repeatability.

Forward demand commentary turned outright confident. Q2 acknowledged demand uncertainty; Q3 noted "more difficult year-over-year comparisons"; this quarter guides 14–16% Q1 YoY growth and commits to FY2026 acceleration. The framing language ("encouraged by healthy demand and execution") is the most assertive in coverage.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Project Hawaii innovation model—small wins at scalePricing transparency and reserve-now-pay-later as growth driverGeographic expansion and localized executionAI-native experience as defensibility mechanismIntegrated 'Airbnb trip' ecosystem (homes, hotels, experiences, services)High-margin, capital-light business model with 38% FCF conversion

Risks management surfaced:

Currency fluctuations affecting FX tailwindsMacroeconomic conditions influencing travel demandGlobal events and geopolitical uncertaintyPrecision quarterly forecasting challengesDisintermediation risk from chatbot competitors

Q&A highlights

Richard Clark · Bernstein

Given rapid AI innovation, why couldn't AI platforms launch a competing short-term rental platform over time, and does Airbnb risk having to share economics with AI platforms or lose direct traffic in an AI-driven world?

Management argues Airbnb's 18-year-built infrastructure (host app, $100B+ payment processing, customer service, 200M verified IDs, unique inventory) cannot be easily replicated. AI models are non-proprietary and available to all companies; competitive advantage lies in specialization and post-training on Airbnb's proprietary data. Management expects AI/chatbots to function as positive top-of-funnel traffic sources similar to Google, converting at higher rates. Hired AI expert Amit Aldali to build AI-native capabilities.

Handles $100B+ in payments annually200M verified IDs (more than US task force in circulation)90% of Airbnb bookers send a message requiring verified IDChatbot traffic converts at higher rate than Google traffic

Brian Noack · Morgan Stanley

What are the main areas for AI improvement over the next year, and what is the P&L impact of increased AI investment versus last year?

Management expects four major AI wins: (1) customer service scaling to 30%+ of tickets across all languages with voice capability in addition to chat; (2) 100% of engineers using AI tools for productivity gains; (3) AI search rolling out (currently live to small traffic percentage) with eventual voice/conversational interface; (4) improved guest and host experiences via AI. Critically, management states AI investment will have no material P&L impact because Airbnb uses existing foundational models rather than building proprietary ones.

Currently 30% of North America English-language customer service tickets handled by AI agentsTarget: AI handling customer service in all languages with voice capability added80%+ of engineers currently using AI tools; target 100%AI search live to small percentage of traffic now

Mark Mahaney · Evercore ISI

When will hotels become large enough to meaningfully move revenue growth acceleration, and what is driving take-rate dynamics in Q1 given revenue acceleration outpacing room night and bookings growth?

Hotels currently represent single-digit percent of total nice bookings but growing nearly 2x platform growth rate. Will take time to reach material contribution but momentum is strong; expansion underway with intention to exit 2026 as meaningfully larger percent of business. Q1 revenue acceleration driven by: (1) FX tailwind of 3 percentage points; (2) earlier lead times from Q4 bookings realizing in Q1; (3) Easter timing benefits (~50bps incremental revenue); (4) modest take-rate uplift versus Q1 prior year mostly from timing considerations.

Hotels currently single-digit percent of total room nightsHotels growing nearly 2x overall platform rateQ1 FX tailwind: 3 percentage pointsEaster timing benefit: approximately 50 basis points of incremental Q1 revenue; 50 basis points less revenue in Q2

Doug Anluth · JP Morgan

What are the revenue acceleration drivers across core, expansion, and services categories in 2026, and what top-line benefits are expected from AI innovations? Also, what is the impact from major events like World Cup and Olympics?

2026 revenue acceleration driven by momentum from Q4 launches continuing into early 2026, plus incremental supply investment, expansion market growth, and additional unnamed growth levers throughout the year. Major events (Milan Olympics now, FIFA World Cup summer) are noted as small portions of overall business but provide brand halo, supply recruitment benefits, and awareness uplift; benefits extend beyond event booking periods. Management has banked zero AI search benefit into 2026 guidance despite piloting.

Milan Olympics ongoing; FIFA World Cup in summer 2026Major events drive supply recruitment and brand awareness more than direct booking impact40,000 Paris Olympic hosts continued listing post-eventZero AI search revenue contribution banked into 2026 outlook

Lee Horowitz · Deutsche Bank

How are Reserve Now Pay Later cancellations tracking versus expectations, especially amid weather disruptions, and how is this baked into 2026 EBITDA guidance? Also, how does AI search enable sponsored ads deployment?

Reserve Now Pay Later (launched summer 2025) tested pre-launch to ensure net benefit (booking growth exceeds incremental cancellations). Cancellation curves tracking close to test expectations; approximately 1% net nominal increase in cancellation rates across product cohort, not material to platform. Lengthened lead times and modest ADR uplift also observed. AI search currently live to small traffic percent with rapid iteration approach; sponsored ads testing underway; management wants to nail AI search first before major sponsored ads rollout, but expects this to eventually be a revenue opportunity.

Reserve Now Pay Later tested before launch to ensure net benefit~1% net nominal increase in cancellation rate among RNPL usersElevated cancellations already absorbed into 2026 guidanceRNPL lengthened lead times and modestly positive ADR impact

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 nights & seats lands above 5% YoY — Nights & seats booked grew 10% YoY in Q4, materially above the 5% threshold and well above the mid-single-digit guide. The Q2/Q3 volume acceleration was durable.
Resolved positively
Q4 EBITDA margin gap to Q4 2024 — Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 28% vs Q4 2024's ~31%, a ~300bps YoY decline — wider than the ~200bps "similar to Q3" framing had implied, and below the absolute Q4 2024 bar that would have re-rated the investment narrative. The narrative does not get re-rated; revenue outperformance funded the investment rather than offsetting it.
Resolved negatively
First numeric attach rate, revenue, or unit disclosure for services or experiences — Management again declined to provide attach rates or dollar revenue for services or experiences. The category is now framed as part of the integrated "Airbnb trip" ecosystem rather than as standalone businesses requiring discrete disclosure — a framing change that reduces the likelihood of future numeric disclosure.
Not resolved
Hotels supply added in LA / NYC / Madrid pilots and hotel GBV mix — Chesky disclosed hotels are single-digit % of total nights but growing at nearly 2x platform rate, with intent to "exit 2026 as a meaningfully larger percent of business." No specific inventory count or GBV mix figure, but the first quantitative framing of hotels' growth profile.
Continue monitoring
Reserve Now, Pay Later international rollout and cancellation disclosure — Mertz disclosed ~1% net nominal cancellation rate increase among RNPL users, characterized as not material to the platform, with lengthened lead times and modestly positive ADR effects. No specific international rollout milestones disclosed. Status: Resolved positively on cancellation transparency; geographic rollout still vague.
FY2026 framing on investment intensity — Management committed to FY2026 revenue growth "at least low double digits" with adjusted EBITDA margin "stable year-over-year" — the first explicit forward-year margin floor (~35%) Chesky has put on the record. Stable margin paired with acceleration to ≥10% revenue is a tighter commitment than the prior "maintaining strong margins while investing" qualitative posture.
Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 organic revenue growth (ex-FX) lands at or above 12% — the 14–16% headline includes ~3pts FX; the underlying 11–13% organic range is what tests whether momentum is real. Below 11% means the headline was FX-flattered; at or above 12% validates the FY2026 acceleration thesis.

Q1 nights & seats growth above 8% — high single-digit guide allows 7–9%. Below 8% with FX-flattered revenue would suggest volume growth is decelerating beneath the headline; at or above 9% confirms the Q4 +10% wasn't a one-quarter spike.

Hotels disclosed as a specific % of nights or GBV — Chesky committed to "exit 2026 meaningfully larger" — that creates a credibility burden to begin quantifying the base. First numeric hotel disclosure (room nights, GBV mix, or inventory) is the cleanest forward signal.

AI customer service scope expansion — currently 30% of North American English tickets. Watch for a global/multi-language percentage and any cost-savings dollar quantification — Mertz called this a major 2026 lever but provided no dollar impact.

FY2026 EBITDA margin remains anchored at ~35% — the "stable YoY" commitment is the firmest forward-margin floor in coverage. Any softening of that language in Q1 or H1 prints (e.g. shift to "approximately stable" or "stable to slightly down") would mark a re-investment escalation.

Brazil/Asia-Pacific country-level disclosure cadence — Brazil is now the named playbook country. Watch whether management names a second (India, Korea, and Japan have been referenced in past calls) or whether Brazil remains a one-country case study, which would weaken the repeatability argument.

Sources

  1. Airbnb Q4 2025 Shareholder Letter / Press Release (Exhibit 99.1), filed with the SEC on 2026-02-12 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1559720/000119312526048670/d58192dex991.htm
  2. Airbnb Q4 2025 earnings call commentary and Q&A (Chesky, Mertz).
  3. Tapebrief ABNB Q3 FY2025 brief (prior-quarter guide baselines and watch list).

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