ADM · Q2 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Archer Daniels Midland

Reported August 4, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: ADM raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.60 from $4.15–$4.70 — a $0.95 midpoint lift (+22%) — after Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.84 beat consensus of $1.44 by 27.8% and total segment operating profit of $1.45B nearly doubled the Q1 base of $764M. The Q1 mark-to-market reversal management flagged 90 days ago landed with ~$100M of positive crushing timing impact, Nutrition segment revenue is still down 4.6% YoY at the top but Human Nutrition operating profit is up 51%, and the prior FY high end of $4.70 now sits $0.45 below the new low end of $5.15. Two consecutive quarters of significant guidance raises have converted the biofuel-policy call option into a hardened operating result.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$1.84

+27.8% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$22.68B

+7.1% YoY

-1.6% vs est.

Gross margin

Q2 FY2026

8.5%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$22.68B	$21.17B	+7.2%	$20.49B	+10.7%
EPS	$1.84	$0.93	+97.8%	$0.71	+159.2%
Gross margin	8.5%	6.5%	+205bps	6.0%	+256bps

Guidance

ADM raised full-year FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance by $0.90–$1.00 to $5.15–$5.60 (from $4.15–$4.70), reflecting stronger-than-expected crushing and ethanol margins and improvement in Nutrition, while reaffirming capex guidance.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS	FY 2026	$4.15 to $4.70	$5.15 to $5.60	+$1.00 to +$0.90 (midpoint +$0.95)	Raised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Capital Expenditures ($1.3 to $1.5 billion)

Segment performance

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Ag Services and Oilseeds	$17.916B	$16.269B	+10.1%
Carbohydrate Solutions	$2.757B	$2.792B	-1.3%
Nutrition	$1.902B	$1.993B	-4.6%

Platform metrics

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Oilseeds Processed Volumes	9,477 thousand metric tons	9,051 thousand metric tons	—
Corn Processed Volumes	4,736 thousand metric tons	4,614 thousand metric tons	—
Net Mark-to-Market and Timing Impacts - Crushing	~$100 million positive	—	—

Profitability

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Total Segment Operating Profit	$1,450 million	$830 million	—
Adjusted EBITDA	$1,472 million	$931 million	—
Adjusted ROIC	7.8%	6.9%	—

Management tone

Q3 2025: Recovery deferred → Q4 2025: 2026 guided, policy-hinged → Q1 2026: RVO landed "with violence," raise → Q2 2026: Raise compounds, execution narrative replaces policy narrative

Note: no earnings call transcript is available for Q2 2026; the tone shifts below are read from the guidance narrative shift in the press release itself.

The guidance language has shifted from external-risk-management to affirmative capitalization. In Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 press releases, management framed the environment with phrases like "capturing the value of policy clarity" and "positioning for the constructive environment ahead" — participatory language. This quarter's press release states: "The Company expects to continue capitalizing on the constructive margin environment through disciplined execution." The verb tense has changed from anticipating to executing. This is the first quarter where the company frames itself as the actor rather than the beneficiary.

Nutrition has been upgraded from "monitoring" to "improving." The prior two quarters described Nutrition using recovery language — "Decatur East returning," "specialty ingredients recovering." This quarter management states plainly: "performance continues to improve in Nutrition." Combined with Human Nutrition operating profit +51.1% YoY, this reads as a segment that has cleared the base and is now compounding — the tone shift from process ("returning") to result ("improving") matches what the numbers now show.

External risk factors are still cited but no longer framed as thesis-defining. The press release notes ADM is "continuing to monitor external factors across the macroeconomic, geopolitical, policy, and trade environments." Compared to Q3 2025 when policy uncertainty was the reason for the guide cut, and Q4 2025 when policy was the "call option" underwriting the high end, this quarter external factors are residual — a monitoring caveat, not a thesis load-bearer. Two consecutive raises against this backdrop suggest management has largely disarmed the policy risk that dominated coverage six months ago.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether the $275M Q1 mark-to-market reversal lands in Q2 as forecasted. Yes — the Q2 print discloses ~$100M positive net mark-to-market and timing impact on Crushing, and total segment operating profit of $1.45B is a $686M step-up from Q1's $764M. The M2M framing management gave in Q1 has been validated by the print.

Resolved positively

Whether Q2 adjusted EPS lands above ~$1.10. Yes — decisively. Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.84 exceeded the implied floor by 67%, and consensus of $1.44 by 27.8%. The concern that the Q1 raise was "front-loaded with policy optimism" has been dismissed by the run-rate print.

Resolved positively

Whether crush margins sustain the Q1 step-up or normalize as new biodiesel/RD capacity comes online. Sustained and then some. Oilseeds processed volumes rose to 9,477kt from 9,299kt in Q1, AS&O revenue accelerated to +10.1% YoY, and the ~$100M positive M2M on Crushing indicates cash margins are converting board crush effectively. The feedstock competition concern hasn't materialized in Q2.

Resolved positively

Whether the China soybean buying assumption holds. The company didn't quantify China buying on the print. AS&O top-line acceleration to +10.1% is directionally consistent with normalized export flows, but no explicit China commitment disclosure.

Continue monitoring

Nutrition Q2 operating profit relative to the $135M Q1 base. Human Nutrition operating profit +51.1% YoY and press-release language ("performance continues to improve") signal sequential maintenance or expansion, though total-segment operating profit for Nutrition wasn't disclosed in the extracted numbers. Segment revenue -4.6% understates the operating result.

Resolved positively

Carbohydrate Solutions ethanol margin trajectory. Starches and Sweeteners revenue +7.2% inside the segment is a stronger contribution than the Q4 "structural softness" framing implied. Total segment revenue -1.3% is a shallower decline than Q4's -3.9%. The ethanol export thesis appears intact.

Resolved positively

10-K material weakness sign-off. Not addressed on this print.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q3 adjusted EPS lands above ~$1.28 (rough quarter share of the new $5.15 low end given H1 adjusted EPS of ~$2.55). A material miss would suggest the raise was Q2-loaded rather than a durable rate lift.

Whether AS&O revenue growth sustains above +5% YoY. Q2's +10.1% is the strongest since coverage began. Any deceleration back toward the Q1 +2.1% level would signal the Crushing M2M benefit was more timing than run-rate.

Whether Nutrition segment total revenue turns positive YoY. Human Nutrition's +51.1% operating profit isn't yet showing at the top line (-4.6% total). Q3 is the test of whether Animal Nutrition and other sub-segments stabilize or continue to drag.

Whether management restores a numeric crush margin range on the Q3 call now that two quarters of policy-clarified execution have accumulated. The absence of a numeric anchor since Q3 2025 has been tolerable while EPS beats consensus; it would become an issue on any print that lands soft.

Whether the FY guide holds or is raised a third consecutive time. Two raises of $0.55 and $0.95 midpoint have delivered a +37% cumulative FY midpoint lift. A hold would be a de-facto signal that H2 is expected to run below H1 rate; a further raise would confirm structural re-rating.

10-K material weakness sign-off. Governance gate has been open for four consecutive quarters.

CapEx spend pacing. With H1 done and CapEx reaffirmed at $1.3–$1.5B, Q3 spend rate signals whether management is investing behind the improved margin backdrop or preserving cash for buyback/dividend flexibility.

Sources

ADM Q2 2026 press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), filed 2026-08-04 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000000708426000040/adm-ex991_20260630xq2.htm
ADM Q1 2026 brief (tapebrief, 2026-05-05)
ADM Q4 2025 brief (tapebrief, 2026-02-03)
ADM Q3 2025 brief (tapebrief, 2025-11-04)
ADM Q2 2025 brief (tapebrief, 2025-08-05)

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