tapebrief
AEE · Q3 2025
AEE · Q1 2026

AEE · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Ameren

Reported February 11, 2026

30-second summary

Ameren closed 2025 with non-GAAP EPS of $5.03 (midpoint of the raised $4.90–$5.10 guide) and GAAP EPS of $5.35 (above the high end of the raised $5.08–$5.28 GAAP range), reaffirmed FY2026 GAAP EPS of $5.25–$5.45, and stepped up its five-year capital plan by 21% to $31.8B — anchored by 2.2 GW of newly executed Energy Services Agreements that management explicitly calls upside to the 6–8% EPS CAGR baseline. The substantive shift this quarter is the conversion of the data center pipeline from construction-agreement scale (3 GW signed last quarter) to contracted ESAs (2.2 GW executed), with $46M of non-refundable developer payments now in hand — and the company is positioning the 2.2 GW as incremental to a guidance baseline that already assumes only 1.2 GW.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$0.78

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$1.78B

-8.2% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

20.2%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025
MetricQ4 FY2025YoYQ3 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$1.78B-8.2%$2.70B-34.0%
EPS$0.78—$2.17-64.1%
Operating margin20.2%—30.6%-1036bps

Guidance

FY2025 Non-GAAP EPS in-line with raised guidance; FY2026 guidance reaffirmed at $5.25–$5.45; long-term EPS CAGR (2026–2030) confirmed at 6–8% with $31.8B capex plan supporting 10.6% rate base growth.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
EPS (Non-GAAP)FY2025$4.90 to $5.10$5.03in-line (midpoint of guide)Beat
EPS (GAAP)FY2025$5.08 to $5.28$5.03in-line (within range)Met

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
EPS Compound Annual Growth RateFY2026-FY20306% to 8%—
Rate Base CAGRFY2025-FY203010.6%—
Capital ExpendituresFY2026-FY2030$31.8 billion—

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: EPS ($5.25 to $5.45)

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025YoY
Ameren Missouri$0.793B-16.1%
Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution$0.555B+6.3%
Ameren Transmission$0.204B+4.6%
Ameren Illinois Natural Gas$0.282B+1.4%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025
Electric Sales - Total kWh16,927 million kWh
Natural Gas Sales - Total dekatherms57 million dekatherms
Rate Base Growth (2025-2030 CAGR)10.6%
EPS Growth Guidance (2026-2030 CAGR)6% to 8%
Operating Margin (Q4 2025)20.2%
Operating Income$360 million

Management tone

Q1 (implied) anchor → Q2 "anchored pipeline ($28M)" → Q3 "pipeline expansion + ramp deferral (3 GW signed, $38M)" → Q4 "ESAs executed + capex stepped up (2.2 GW contracted, $46M, $31.8B plan)"

Two quarters ago the data center pipeline was construction agreements with non-refundable payments; one quarter ago it expanded to 3 GW with $38M of payments; this quarter the headline is contracted ESAs for 2.2 GW with $46M of payments — the pipeline has been converted, not just expanded. The anchor quote: "The 2.2 gigawatts of executed ESAs represent upside to our sales and earnings forecasts." Management is explicitly framing ESAs as incremental to a guidance baseline that still embeds only 1.2 GW. The narrowing of headline GW (2.2 contracted vs 3 GW signed last quarter) is not a downgrade — it's the subset that has now passed the harder contracting hurdle. The first ESA signing was the single biggest unresolved item from the Q2 brief; it has now printed at scale.

The capex plan stepped up materially for the first time in the cycle. Last quarter management acknowledged the $68B long-range pipeline but maintained the five-year plan; this quarter the five-year plan itself moved from roughly $26B to $31.8B (+21%), with management citing "robust expected generation investment needed to serve anticipated load growth." The rate-base CAGR climbed from 9.2% (Q2 disclosure) to 10.6%. This is the capex raise the Q3 brief flagged as the cleanest confirmation that the larger pipeline translates to rate base — it printed.

Cost discipline got a hard number for the first time. Two quarters ago O&M control was implicit; this quarter management committed to "limiting consolidated O&M expenses to less than the rate of inflation over the five-year plan," citing 2.8% O&M growth vs 4.6% consumer-price inflation over the prior five years. This matters because it directly attacks the 10.6%-vs-6–8% lag between rate base and EPS growth — every dollar of O&M savings narrows the gap.

Transmission moved from "future opportunity" to "active bidding." Q2 and Q3 framed MISO Tranche 2.1 as a procedural-timing story; this quarter management disclosed bids submitted in January on two Illinois projects with MISO selection expected this summer, and two additional bids due mid-2026. The narrative arc on transmission tightened from "we expect opportunity" to "we are competing now."

Economic development materialized as a quantified contributor. Last quarter the funnel was framed as ~36 GW of opportunities. This quarter management cited 70+ specific projects supported in 2025 representing $3.6B of capital investment and 3,700 jobs — the funnel produced measurable output, which is the first time the company has put trailing-period numbers on what had been forward-pipeline framing.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Large load data center acceleration and ESA execution21% increase in five-year capital plan driven by generation and transmission investmentGeneration fleet development with near-term operational milestones achievedEconomic development materialization: 70+ projects, 3,700 jobs, 3.6 billion capital investmentDisciplined cost management and O&M control below inflationRate base growth of 10.6% CAGR supported by strong earnings growth guidance

Risks management surfaced:

Execution of generation projects and supply chain timingData center project milestones including groundbreaking and construction still to be achievedMISO competitive transmission project selection uncertaintyEquity issuance timing and amounts dependent on data center cash flow timingRegulatory approval requirements for generation CCNs and transmission projects

Q&A highlights

Julian Dumoulin-Spith · Jefferies

Why aren't the 2.2 GW of executed ESAs included in guidance? How do the 2.2 GW ESAs reconcile with guidance of upper end of 6-8% EPS growth and CapEx plans?

The 2.2 GW ESAs signed in February 2026 represent upside to the 1.2 GW baseline baked into existing 6-8% guidance. Management expects to deliver near upper end of range, with ESAs providing potential to exceed that range depending on ramp rates. ESAs not included due to recent signing and multiple milestones ahead (customer announcements, groundbreakings, construction).

2.2 GW of ESAs signed in February 20261.2 GW of new demand by 2030 embedded in current guidanceUp to 1.5 GW potential by 2032Expect to deliver near upper end of 6-8% EPS growth range

Andrew Cadeveon · Wells Fargo

What explains the lag between 10.6% rate-based CAGR and 6-8% EPS CAGR? How much is financing versus structural? Can the lag narrow and support higher EPS guidance?

Primary driver of lag is equity dilution from financing needs. Secondary drivers include potential for earned ROEs to approach allowed ROEs as data center sales come into focus, and regulatory lag between rate reviews. Management indicates these factors can help reduce the differential over time.

Rate-based CAGR: 10.6%EPS growth guidance: 6-8%Primary lag driver: equity dilution from financingSecondary drivers: earned vs. allowed ROE differential, regulatory lag between rate reviews

Andrew Cadeveon · Wells Fargo

Are there concerns about ESA cancellations given precedents in other states? When do take-or-pay provisions become binding for customers?

Management states no concerns with ESAs or projects coming to fruition, but acknowledges significant milestones ahead (announcements, groundbreakings, construction). Cites conservatism in 6-8% guidance (based on 1.2 GW baseline) with ESAs as upside. Cannot disclose specific ESA terms or counterparties due to confidentiality. Notes protective provisions in large load tariff design (termination provisions, minimum monthly payments, security requirements).

Cannot disclose specific ESA terms or counterpartiesMultiple milestones ahead before cash realizationProtective provisions in large load tariff on slide 12Includes termination provisions, minimum monthly payments, security requirements

Diana Niles · JP Morgan

How much of the $70B infrastructure pipeline falls within the 5-year plan versus beyond 2030? How smooth is the investment ramp between 5-year plan and subsequent periods?

Five-year plan: $31.8B in infrastructure investments, primarily driven by generation in Missouri. Investment profile can be lumpy due to large generation projects (simple cycle gas in 2027-2028, combined cycle 2100 MW in 2031). Triennial IRP filing later in 2026 will address potential acceleration of generation investments (batteries, renewables, dispatchable generation). Management emphasizes smoothing benefits for customers but acknowledges lumpiness.

$70B investment opportunity over 10-year period$31.8B five-year infrastructure investmentSimple cycle gas generation coming 2027-2028Combined cycle 2100 MW facility planned for 2031

Bill Apicelli · UBS

How does the updated plan impact customer bills, particularly in Missouri? Would ESA benefits help offset bill impacts?

Management emphasizes disciplined cost control (O&M growth of 2.8% over 5 years vs. 4.6% consumer price inflation) and continuous improvement initiatives. ESA customers required by Senate Bill 4 and tariff design to pay full cost of connection and service, with reasonable assurance of no burden to other customers. Hopeful that incremental sales growth could eventually benefit remaining customers. Affordability remains ongoing focus.

O&M cost growth: 2.8% over past 5 yearsConsumer price inflation: 4.6% over same periodSenate Bill 4 requires ESA customers pay full cost of connection and serviceTariff designed to ensure no burden on existing customers

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Missouri PSC large-load tariff decision — Resolved positively. Management confirmed the Missouri PSC approved the Ameren Missouri large-load rate structure in November 2025, with the tariff now operative (base rate ~6.2 cents/kWh, 12-year service commitment after ramp, 80% minimum demand charge, termination provisions, collateral requirements).
Resolved positively
First ESA signing as a discrete event — Resolved positively, and at scale. 2.2 GW of ESAs executed (signed in February 2026), with $46M of non-refundable developer payments now in hand (up from $38M at Q3 and $28M at Q2). This is the most consequential resolution on the prior watch list.
Resolved positively
Whether 2026 GAAP EPS guidance of $5.25–$5.45 holds through Q4 commentary — Resolved positively. Range reaffirmed unchanged, with management explicitly guiding to the upper end of the 6–8% CAGR through 2027–2030 (vs prior 2027–2029 framing). No widening or qualification.
Resolved positively
Updated capex framework with the 2026 plan refresh — Resolved positively. Five-year capex stepped up 21% to $31.8B (2026–2030), with rate-base CAGR raised to 10.6% (vs 9.2% at Q2). The larger pipeline is translating to incremental rate base, as the Q3 brief flagged it should.
Resolved positively
MISO Tranche 2.1 procedural updates and Tranche 3 scoping — Partially resolved. Ameren submitted joint bids in January on two Illinois Tranche 2.1 projects with selection expected this summer; bids on two additional MISO projects are due mid-2026. The procedural complaint from the five state commissions disclosed at Q2 was not specifically updated.
Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

First guidance raise driven by ESA inclusion — management has now twice characterized the 2.2 GW as "upside" to the 6–8% baseline. Watch whether Q1 or Q2 brings a formal guidance raise as projects clear announcement and groundbreaking milestones, or whether the upside remains permanently parked outside the guide.

Triennial IRP filing later in 2026 — explicitly flagged in Q&A as the venue for potential generation investment acceleration (batteries, renewables, additional dispatchable). The IRP filing could be the next discrete catalyst for another capex step-up.

MISO Tranche 2.1 selection outcome this summer — Ameren has submitted joint bids on two Illinois projects. A win would convert the transmission opportunity from competitive-pending to awarded, and would be the cleanest near-term capex add outside the data center build.

Equity issuance disclosure tied to data center cash flow timing — management identified equity dilution as the primary driver of the rate-base-to-EPS gap. Watch ATM activity, hybrid issuance, and the timing of any block equity raise, particularly as ESA cash flows become visible.

Cadence of GAAP vs non-GAAP reconciliation items into 2026 — FY2025 GAAP benefited from $86M of tax benefits tied to FERC and ICC orders on net operating loss carryforwards, which drove the GAAP beat above the raised range. The FY2026 guide is GAAP basis; watch for any further reconciliation items and whether the underlying non-GAAP trajectory tracks the 8.1% implied growth to the $5.35 midpoint.

Sources

  1. Ameren Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release (SEC 8-K Exhibit 99.1), February 11, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000005/q42025ex991earningsrelease.htm
  2. Ameren Q4 2025 Earnings Call Q&A and management commentary (as supplied)

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