AMCR · Q2 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Amcor

Reported February 3, 2026

30-second summary

Amcor reported Q2 FY2026 adjusted EPS of $0.86, in line with management's expectations and within the upper half of the prior $0.16–0.18 guide once adjusted for the 1-for-5 reverse stock split effected Jan 14, 2026 ($0.16–0.18 × 5 = $0.80–0.90). Management reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EPS ($4.00–4.15) and FCF ($1.8–1.9B), but quietly dropped three previously-guided FY26 line items — CapEx ($850–900M), net interest ($570–600M), and effective tax rate (19–21%) — without explanation. The synergy floor language ("at least $260M") was held rather than raised, and Q&A revealed second-half EBIT depends on a ~$250M sequential bridge that is back-end weighted.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$0.86

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$5.45B

+68.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q2 FY2026

19.1%

Free cash flow

Q2 FY2026

$0.29B

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

6.1%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$5.45B	+68.0%	$5.75B	-5.2%
EPS	$0.86	—	$0.19	+345.6%
Gross margin	19.1%	—	19.6%	-48bps
Operating margin	6.1%	—	8.0%	-193bps
Free cash flow	$0.29B	—	$-0.34B	+184.3%

Guidance

Company reaffirms full-year FY2026 EPS and FCF guidance on back of strong Q2 beat, but quietly withdraws supplementary CapEx, interest, and tax rate disclosures.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS	Q2 FY2026	$0.16 to $0.18	$0.86	+$0.68 to $0.70 above guide	Beat

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Capital expenditure	FY2026	$850 to $900 million	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn
Net interest expense	FY2026	$570 to $600 million	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn
Effective tax rate	FY2026	19% to 21%	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Adjusted EPS ($4.00 to $4.15), Free Cash Flow ($1.8 billion to $1.9 billion), Berry acquisition synergy benefits (at least $260 million)

Segment KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	YoY
Global Flexible Packaging Solutions	$3.188B	+23.0%
Global Rigid Packaging Solutions	$2.264B	+200.0%

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026
Adjusted EBITDA	$826 million
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	15.2%
Adjusted EBIT	$603 million
Adjusted EBIT Margin	11.1%
Acquisition Synergies	$55 million
Volume Performance vs Combined Legacy	~1.5% lower
Free Cash Flow Margin	5.3%
Net Debt	$14,081 million

Management tone

Q4-25 stabilization-and-pruning → Q1-26 forward-leaning execution → Q2 FY2026 quiet retrenchment.

The synergy posture stopped moving up. Last quarter management upgraded the FY26 synergy framing from "$260M" to "at least $260M" and explicitly signaled upside. This quarter, despite Q2 landing at the top of the synergy guide, the FY26 floor was held flat rather than raised. The omission matters because Q1's tone reversal was built on synergy upside; holding the floor while Q2 prints at the top of range signals management sees H2 capture as tighter than Q1's framing implied.

The macro de-risking language was withdrawn. Last quarter management asserted FY26 EPS growth was "not dependent on improvements in the macroeconomic environment or in customer or consumer demand." That sentence does not appear in this quarter's framing — replaced by PK telling Punjabi that management is "hoping for the best and planning for something very much consistent with the first half" on volumes. The shift from "not dependent on macro" to "planning for continued 1.5% volume decline" is a softer posture even if the FY guide is unchanged.

Three FY26 line-item guides disappeared. CapEx, net interest, and effective tax rate were all reaffirmed by name in Q1; all three are simply absent in Q2. Investors should read silent withdrawal as a deliberate choice to reduce forward commitments — possibly because refinancing, tax planning, or capex flexibility is being recalibrated against an H2 that depends heavily on synergy timing.

Portfolio optimization moved from "review" to "strategic priority." PK in Q1 described non-core assets including North American beverage as in an evaluation pool; this quarter framed portfolio optimization as actively "progressing well, positioning us to be the global leader in consumer packaging." That language pivots from defensive pruning to active divestiture — implying transaction activity may be closer than the Q1 framing implied.

Q&A highlights

Gunsham Punjabi · Baird

What volume expectations are embedded in fiscal 2026 Q3-Q4 guidance? Have you seen improvement in production backlogs or forward indicators suggesting volume recovery, especially given CPG commentary on favorable volume velocity?

Management expects back-half volumes to be similar to first half (down ~1.5%), not assuming material near-term improvement. They are 'hoping for the best and planning for something very much consistent with the first half,' though revenue synergies could provide upside. Guidance assumes bottom-half scenario similar to experienced market environments.

Core portfolio volumes down 1.5% in Q2, approximately 100 bps better than total combined portfolioFlexible segment volumes down low single digits; rigid segment volumes flatGuidance assumes market environment similar to 1.5% volume decline experienced in quarterRevenue synergies and growth initiatives noted as potential upside but not assumed in base plan

Jacob Kakarnas · Jardin Australia

Outside of volumes and market performance, what specific initiatives are being enacted through Q4 to support the historically-shaped (30% of full-year) EPS guidance?

Management outlined three drivers of first-half to second-half EBIT improvement: ~$100M from seasonality, ~$100M from synergy acceleration (at least $260M annual target), and ~$50M from non-core business improvement (particularly North American beverage through better contracts and pricing). Q3-Q4 improvement driven by continued synergy capture acceleration, non-core improvement, and favorable year-over-year comps in Q4 beverage.

Expected ~$100M EBIT improvement from seasonality (first half to second half)Expected ~$100M EBIT improvement from synergy capture (first half to second half)Expected ~$50M EBIT improvement in non-core businesses (first half to second half), returning to 7-9% EBIT margins from ~5% first-half averageQ3 adjusted EPS guidance: $0.90-$1.00 per share with $70-80M synergy realization

Anthony Petinari · Citi

Is Amcor's volume performance in major categories in line with broader industry, gaining share, or letting go of less-profitable business?

Core portfolio (1.5% down) outperforming overall business by ~100 bps; focus categories outperforming core by 50-100 bps. Pet care showing strong performance with likely share gains (high single-digit growth). Meat protein up low single digits. Healthcare slightly down (flu season impact). Volume performance suggests Amcor performing in line with or marginally better than industry, with targeted share gains in premium categories.

Overall company Q2 volumes: down 2.5%; core portfolio: down 1.5% (100 bps better)Focus categories outperforming core by 50-100 basis pointsPet care: high single-digit growth, likely share gainsMeat protein: low single-digit growth

George Staplos · Bank of America

What is the exit rate on volume for fiscal Q2 into Q3, particularly in focus categories within flexible? Why is there minimal operating leverage in flexible segment EBIT growth despite synergies?

Focus categories outperformed core by 50-100 bps in Q2. Flexible segment EBIT synergies were ~$10M of total $55M (only 18%), with core business performing nearly flat despite 2% volume decline. Rigid segment captured ~$35-40M of synergies due to higher Berry integration benefits (G&A and procurement), explaining why earnings growth appears muted excluding synergies.

Focus categories 50-100 bps better than 1.5% core declineFlexible segment volumes down 2%; EBIT up 1%; comparable EBIT (ex-synergies) down modestlyFlexible synergy capture Q2: ~$10M of $55M totalRigid segment synergy capture Q2: ~$35-40M of $55M total (including ~$30M from non-core headwind)

Neeraj Shah · Goldman Sachs

What is the split between G&A and procurement synergies in Q2? How will that split evolve in second half, and what is the status of supplier negotiations?

Q2 synergies split evenly between G&A and procurement (~$22.5M each), with $5M from financial synergies (tax/interest). G&A synergies front-loaded; procurement ramps as inventory washes through; operational synergies primarily Years 2-3. Supplier negotiations progressing well on track for $325M in procurement synergies by end of FY2028. Management has high confidence given procurement represents ~50% of total $650M target.

Q2 synergy split: even between G&A and procurement (~$22.5M each) plus ~$5M financial synergiesHeadcount reduction: 600+ achieved (consistent with integration roadmap)Procurement synergies: expected $325M by end FY2028Supplier negotiations: on track, major vendor agreements progressing

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q2 EPS landing within or above $0.16–0.18 — Reported $0.86, in line with management's expectations and within the upper half of the split-adjusted $0.80–0.90 range. Synergies hit $55M at the top of the $50–55M guide.

Resolved positively

Whether the FY26 synergy floor moves from "at least $260M" to an explicit raised range — No. Despite Q2 landing at the top of the synergy guide, management held the FY26 floor flat. The setup created in Q1 for a formal raise did not materialize this quarter.

Resolved negatively

North American beverage strategic action — No process announcement, no write-down, no carve-out timeline. Management framed portfolio optimization more actively this quarter ("progressing well, positioning us to be the global leader"), but Q2 non-core beverage EBIT margin deteriorated to ~3% (vs. ~5% H1 average) before an expected H2 recovery to 7–9%.

Continue monitoring

Organic volume signal in Flexibles — Flexibles down low-single-digits on volume, with Flex segment comparable EBIT (ex-synergies) down modestly per Staphos exchange. Focus categories within Flex outperforming core by 50–100bps but the underlying organic trend is softer than Q1's framing implied.

Resolved negatively

Revenue synergy pipeline conversion — Annualized run-rate now exceeds $100M against three-year target of $280M.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Whether the withdrawn FY26 disclosures (CapEx $850–900M, interest $570–600M, tax 19–21%) are reissued or further suppressed in Q3. Silent withdrawal of three reaffirmed line items in a single quarter is the strongest signal in this print; treat reissuance as a positive credibility marker.

Q3 adjusted EPS landing at or above the $0.90–1.00 range disclosed in prepared remarks, with $70–80M synergies. Missing the synergy figure would put the FY26 floor of $260M at material risk given $93M H1 plus $70–80M Q3 leaves $87–97M required in Q4 alone.

Non-core EBIT margin trajectory in North American beverage. Management's H2 bridge requires return from ~3% Q2 (~5% H1 average) to 7–9%; any further deterioration breaks the FY26 EPS bridge regardless of synergy capture.

Explicit divestiture announcement. Portfolio optimization language hardened materially this quarter; a process announcement, asset sale, or write-down on the $2.5B non-core pool is the most likely next strategic event.

Flex segment operating leverage ex-synergies. Flex captured only $10M of $55M Q2 synergies and core EBIT was down on -2% volumes. Without organic margin recovery in Flex, the FY27 setup post-synergy-tailwind becomes structurally weaker.

Sources

Amcor Q2 FY2026 press release (SEC filing): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1748790/000174879026000004/exhibit991q22026.htm
Amcor Q2 FY2026 earnings call Q&A (analyst exchanges with Punjabi, Cakarnis, Crawford, Pettinari, Staphos, Shah).

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