AMCR · Q2 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Amcor

Reported February 3, 2026

30-second summary

Amcor delivered Q2 FY26 adjusted EPS of $0.86, well above the $0.16–0.18 guide once accounting for the post-split share base, with $55M of Berry synergies at the upper end of the $50–55M frame. FY26 adjusted EPS ($4.00–4.15, +12–17% constant currency) and free cash flow ($1.8–1.9B) were explicitly reaffirmed, and management quantified an H1→H2 EBIT bridge of ~$250M ($100M seasonality + $100M synergies + $50M non-core recovery). Three FY26 line-item guides — capex ($850–900M), net interest ($570–600M), and tax rate (19–21%) — were dropped from the print without explanation, and core volumes ran -1.5% with no sign of the back-half positive volume scenario floated last quarter.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$0.86

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$5.45B

+68.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q2 FY2026

19.1%

Free cash flow

Q2 FY2026

$0.29B

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

6.1%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$5.45B	+68.0%	$5.75B	-5.2%
EPS	$0.86	—	$0.19	+345.6%
Gross margin	19.1%	—	19.6%	-50bps
Operating margin	6.1%	—	8.0%	-190bps
Free cash flow	$0.29B	—	$-0.34B	+184.3%

Guidance

Company reaffirmed full-year FY2026 Adjusted EPS ($4.00–$4.15, 12–17% constant currency growth) and Free Cash Flow ($1.8–$1.9B) guidance, supported by strong Q2 beat on Adjusted EPS ($0.86 vs. guided $0.16–$0.18); however, guidance on capital expenditure, net interest expense, and tax rate was quietly withdrawn.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS	Q2 FY2026	$0.16–$0.18	$0.86	+$0.68–$0.70 above guide	Beat

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Capital expenditure	FY2026	$850–$900 million	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn
Net interest expense	FY2026	$570–$600 million	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn
Effective tax rate	FY2026	19–21%	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Adjusted EPS ($4.00–$4.15), Free Cash Flow ($1.8–$1.9 billion), Berry acquisition synergy benefits (at least $260 million pre-tax)

Segment KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	YoY
Global Flexible Packaging Solutions	$3.188B	+23.0%
Global Rigid Packaging Solutions	$2.264B	+200.0%
Flexible Packaging Volume Change	-2%	—
Rigid Packaging Volume Change	flat (excluding non-core)	—

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026
Adjusted EBITDA	$826 million
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	15.2%
Adjusted EBIT Margin	11.1%
Acquisition Synergies Realized	$55 million
Volume Performance (Constant Currency)	-1.5%
FY2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance	$4.00-$4.15

Management tone

Q4 stabilization-and-pruning → Q1 synergy overdelivery and macro decoupling → Q2 quantified back-half bridge with quiet line-item withdrawals.

The back-half EBIT bridge moved from hand-wave to specific numbers, which is the right direction but raises the bar for Q3 delivery. Last quarter management framed FY26 confidence around "at least $260M" synergies and floated potential back-half positive volumes. This quarter Jacob Kakarnas (Jardin Australia) pressed on the H1→H2 ramp and got a precise answer: "$100 million of seasonality, $100 million of synergy capture improvement, and approximately $50 million from non-core business improvement" — with Q3 EPS guided to $0.90–1.00 and Q3 synergies at $70–80M. That is more useful disclosure than last quarter offered, but it also means a Q3 print below $0.90 or synergies below $70M becomes a clear miss against a now-explicit bar.

The "positive back-half volumes" hedge floated last quarter has quietly retreated. Last quarter's Q1 brief noted management's introduction of "there is actually an opportunity for the volumes to be positive in the back half of the fiscal year." On this print, the answer to Baird's Gunsham Punjabi was the opposite: guidance assumes "~1.5% volume decline consistent with Q2 performance" through the back half, with upside framed as coming from revenue synergies and customer wins rather than market recovery. The volume thesis got walked back without it being called out.

Synergy execution narrative is now load-bearing because organic volume is not contributing. George Staplos (Bank of America) extracted the cleanest version of this: Flexible segment EBIT +1% on -2% volumes with only ~$10M of synergies; Rigid segment EBIT +15% on flat volumes driven by ~$35–40M of synergies. Management's response was straightforward — synergies are doing the work. That is appropriately transparent, but it means the FY26 +12–17% EPS growth narrative is now entirely a Berry integration story, with no organic earnings contribution underneath.

Quiet withdrawal of capex, interest, and tax guides on the same print where the bottom line is reaffirmed is an unforced disclosure regression. The Q1 brief explicitly listed capex ($850–900M), net interest ($570–600M), and tax rate (19–21%) as reaffirmed. This quarter they are absent from the press release with no commentary. The most charitable reads — refinancing optionality, capex flexibility — are bullish on FCF; the less charitable read is that one or more of the underlying assumptions has shifted and management would rather not commit. Either way, removing line-item visibility while keeping headline visibility is a step backward from the disclosure cadence Amcor had established.

Q&A highlights

Gunsham Punjabi · Baird

What volume expectations are embedded in guidance for remaining two quarters of fiscal 2026? Have you seen improvement in production backlogs or forward indicators, particularly given favorable commentary from CPGs on volume velocity?

Management expects back half volume trends similar to first half (down low single digits), with no material improvement assumed. However, upside could come from revenue synergy capture and growth initiatives. Guidance assumes bottom half reflects ~1.5% volume decline consistent with Q2 performance, while upper half could capture more positive customer activity.

Core portfolio volume down 1.5% in Q2, ~100 bps better than total companyGuidance assumes ~1.5% down volume environment for back halfRevenue synergies and customer wins provide potential upside to guidance

Jacob Kakarnas · Jardin Australia

What initiatives is management enacting through Q4 to support guidance, given historical seasonality patterns show Q4 typically represents ~30% of full-year EPS?

Management outlined three primary drivers of first-half to second-half EBIT improvement: ~$100M from seasonality, ~$100M from synergy capture (at least $260M for full year), and ~$50M from non-core business improvement (particularly North American beverage). Q3-Q4 improvement driven by continued synergy acceleration, non-core business improvement, and year-over-year comparisons.

$100 million of seasonal EBIT improvement first half to second half$100 million of synergy benefit improvement first half to second half~$50 million non-core EBIT improvement first half to second halfQ3 adjusted EPS guidance: $0.90 to $1.00 per share

Anthony Petinari · Citi

Is volume performance in line with broader industry? Are you gaining share or divesting less profitable business? Specifically seeking color on competitive positioning.

Overall company down 2.5% in Q2 vs 1.5% for core $20B portfolio. Focus categories (50%+ of core) outperformed core by 50-100 bps. Pet care showing high single-digit growth with likely share gains; meat protein low single-digit growth. Healthcare and some food service categories softer. North America and emerging markets performing better than Europe.

Total company volume down 2.5% vs core portfolio down 1.5%Focus categories outperformed core by 50-100 bpsPet care: high single-digit growth (likely share gains)Meat protein: low single-digit growth

Brooke Crawford · Baron Joey

Can you provide specific EBIT numbers for non-core portfolio improvement expected in second half versus first half?

Non-core Q2 EBIT margins were ~3% (difficult quarter), first-half margins approximately 5% on $1.2B revenue. Management expects second-half return to normalized 7-8% EBIT margins through improved contractual terms, better pricing, and improved operating performance. This represents ~$50M improvement first half to second half.

Non-core first-half EBIT margin: ~5% on $1.2B revenueNon-core Q2 EBIT margin: ~3% (below normal)Expected second-half EBIT margin: 7-8% rangeExpected improvement first half to second half: ~$50 million

George Staplos · Bank of America

What were exit rates on volumes in focus categories within flexible packaging from Q2 to Q3? Why limited operating leverage in flexibles given synergy capture? What mix effect did declining volumes have?

Focus categories collectively outperformed core by 50-100 bps. Pet care strong (likely share gains), meat protein low single digits up. Dairy softer; healthcare down (weak flu season). Flexible segment saw only $10M of $55M synergy capture, with core business roughly flat excluding synergies. Rigid segment captured ~$35-40M synergies given greater Berry integration benefit.

Focus categories outperformed core by 50-100 bpsFlexible segment volumes down 2%, EBIT up 1%Flexible synergies Q2: ~$10 million (20% of total)Rigid synergies Q2: ~$35-40 million (70% of total)

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q2 synergy delivery against $50–55M guide — Q2 synergies came in at $55M, the upper end of the guide. Combined with Q1's $38M (upper end of $35–40M), H1 synergy capture is $93M, or 36% of the $260M FY target with H2 guided at $70–80M for Q3 alone. The "at least $260M" framing is on track to be conservative.

Resolved positively

H2 volume trajectory — Management walked back last quarter's "positive back-half volumes" hedge. Guidance now explicitly assumes ~1.5% volume decline consistent with Q2 through the back half, with upside framed as synergy and customer-win driven rather than market recovery.

Resolved negatively

North American beverage status — Still no formal divestiture process, write-down, or strategic update. Management did disclose that non-core (which contains the $1.5B North American beverage unit) generated only ~3% EBIT margin in Q2 with H2 recovery expected to 7–8% via contractual renegotiations. Six quarters into the Berry combination, the strategic question of whether the unit is being prepared for sale or transformed in place remains unaddressed.

Continue monitoring

FCF cadence into H2 — Q2 FCF was +$0.289B vs Q1's -$0.343B, so H1 FCF is approximately -$54M. To hit the FY $1.8–1.9B guide, H2 must generate $1.85–1.95B — a steep ramp but consistent with the reaffirmed frame. The Q2 inflection from cash burn to modest positive is on-plan but leaves the FY conversion target heavily back-end loaded.

Continue monitoring

Revenue synergy build vs. the $70M annualized base — The press release and Q&A did not provide an updated revenue synergy run-rate beyond Q1's $70M annualized disclosure. Management referenced revenue synergies as a potential source of upside to volume guidance but did not quantify incremental wins.

Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Q3 EPS against the explicit $0.90–1.00 guide and synergies against $70–80M: Management has now committed to specific Q3 numbers. A print below $0.90 or synergies below $70M is the first true execution miss since deal close and would re-open the back-end-loading risk on the FY $4.00–4.15 frame.

Reinstatement (or continued absence) of capex, interest expense, and tax rate guides: Watch whether the Q3 release restores these line items or leaves them out. Continued silence on three FY assumptions while reaffirming the bottom line is a disclosure regression worth pricing.

Non-core EBIT margin recovery from ~3% in Q2 toward the 7–8% H2 frame: This is now an explicit ~$50M H2 contributor. A Q3 non-core margin still in the 3–5% range puts $30–50M of FY EPS at risk and forces synergies to overdeliver to plug the gap.

North American beverage strategic update: Six quarters of silence on the formal process is itself the signal. Watch for either a process announcement, write-down, or first explicit "retain and transform" framing — any of which would resolve the lingering structural question.

H2 FCF inflection magnitude: Q3 FCF needs to be materially positive to make the $1.85–1.95B H2 target achievable. A Q3 print below $700–800M raises real risk of an FY FCF miss against the reaffirmed guide.

Sources

Amcor Q2 FY2026 press release (SEC filing): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1748790/000174879026000004/exhibit991q22026.htm
Amcor Q2 FY2026 earnings call Q&A (analyst exchanges with Baird, Jardin Australia, Citi, Baron Joey, Bank of America).
Amcor Q1 FY2026 brief (tapebrief prior coverage, for trend context).
Amcor Q4 FY2025 brief (tapebrief prior coverage, for trend context).

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