AON · Q2 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Aon plc

Reported July 29, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: Aon delivered 5% organic revenue growth in Q2 FY2026 — the second consecutive quarter at the floor of the "mid-single-digit or greater" FY band — with adjusted operating margin expansion of 70bps YoY and adjusted EPS of $3.81 that squeaked past consensus by $0.01. Revenue of $4.246B missed the $4.27B consensus by 0.6%, the $4.3B FCF dollar target from Q4 FY2025 remains formally retired with no numerical replacement, and the FY2026 FX benefit narrowed by $0.02 per share on currency deterioration. Management reaffirmed every qualitative FY2026 element, but two consecutive 5% prints against a Q3–Q4 FY2025 run of 7% / 5% converts the "or greater" phrasing into a floor rather than an upside band.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$3.81

+0.3% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$4.25B

+2.0% YoY

-0.6% vs est.

Free cash flow

Q2 FY2026

$0.48B

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

21.5%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$4.25B	$4.16B	+2.2%	$5.03B	-15.7%
EPS	$3.81	$3.49	+9.2%	$6.48	-41.2%
Operating margin	21.5%	20.7%	+80bps	34.1%	-1260bps
Free cash flow	$0.48B	$0.73B	-34.0%	$0.36B	+33.1%

Guidance

Company reaffirms full-year 2026 guidance across organic revenue, operating margin expansion, adjusted EPS growth, and free cash flow growth; modestly reduces expected FX benefit from $0.44 to $0.42 per share.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q2 FY2026	—	$4.246 billion	-$0.024 billion below consensus estimate of $4.27 billion	Missed
Adjusted EPS	Q2 FY2026	—	$3.81	+$0.01 above consensus estimate of $3.80	Beat
Adjusted Operating Margin Expansion	Q2 FY2026	—	70 basis points	in-line with FY guidance trajectory	Met
Free Cash Flow	Q2 FY2026	—	$0.483 billion	in-line with strong cash generation profile	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Adjusted Operating Margin Expansion	Q3 FY2026	70-80 basis points	—
Foreign Currency Translation Impact on Adjusted EPS	Q3 FY2026	de minimis impact	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Foreign Currency Translation Impact on Adjusted EPS	FY 2026	approximately $0.44 per share favorable impact	approximately $0.42 per share favorable impact	-$0.02 per share	Lowered

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Organic Revenue Growth (mid-single-digit or greater), Adjusted Operating Margin Expansion (70-80 basis points), Adjusted EPS Growth (strong adjusted EPS growth), Free Cash Flow Growth (double-digit free cash flow growth)

Segment performance

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Risk Capital - Commercial Risk Solutions	$2.295B	—	+5.0%
Risk Capital - Reinsurance Solutions	$0.711B	—	+5.0%
Human Capital - Health Solutions	$0.818B	—	+5.0%
Human Capital - Wealth Solutions	$0.426B	—	+5.0%

Capital & returns

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Share Repurchases	$600 million	$250 million	—
Dividend Payments	$175 million	—	—

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Organic Revenue Growth	5%	6%	—
Adjusted Operating Margin	28.9%	28.2%	—
Adjusted Operating Margin Expansion	70 bps	—	—
Risk Capital Operating Margin	30.5%	30.1%	—
Human Capital Operating Margin	13.4%	9.1%	—
Free Cash Flow	$483 million	—	—

Management tone

Narrative arc: ABS as revenue engine → moderated data center framing → AI as defensive positioning → disclosure framework contraction now normalized

Two quarters ago the FY2026 framework had specific dollar numbers ($4.3B FCF, ≥$1B buybacks) and explicit margin decomposition (50bps restructuring + 40-50bps ABS). Last quarter those numbers quietly disappeared from the press release. This quarter — with a second consecutive press release under the consolidated qualitative framework — the contraction has been institutionalized. Management did not restore any of the retired numbers, did not acknowledge the step-down, and did not walk back the $4.3B target explicitly. The absence has become the framework. From the press release: "We are reaffirming 2026 guidance of mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth, 70-80 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion, strong adjusted EPS growth and double-digit free cash flow growth." Every element is qualitative or a range; the specific dollar accountability that characterized Q4 FY2025 guidance is gone. The shift signals management wants flexibility, and investors should now assume the retired numbers were retired deliberately.

Three quarters ago Commercial Risk was accelerating 5% → 6% → 7% and being framed as evidence the three-by-three plan was working. This quarter Commercial Risk organic printed 5%, the same as the aggregate consolidated organic and 200bps below the Q3 FY2025 peak. Management did not release transcript commentary this quarter, so the framing is press-release-only, but the reaffirmation language — "remain confident in our strategy, our outlook, and our ability to deliver sustainable long-term value" — reads as steady-state rather than the "conviction has never been greater" language of Q4 FY2025. The deceleration in the flagship segment is not addressed in the disclosure available.

The FX narrowing from $0.44 to $0.42 is the only numerical guidance change and it is a small cut rather than a raise. In prior quarters FX moved favorably (Q4 FY2025 disclosed $0.39, Q1 FY2026 raised it to $0.44); this quarter it reversed. Combined with the Q3 FY2026 FX disclosure of de minimis (vs. Q1's $0.36 favorable in Q1 FY2026), the FX tailwind that padded FY2026 adjusted EPS growth is thinning. That places more weight on organic and margin to deliver the "strong adjusted EPS growth" qualitative guide.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether the $4.3B FCF target reappears or is formally retired. Neither. The Q2 FY2026 press release again omits the $4.3B dollar target and does not explicitly walk it back. YTD H1 FCF of $846M ($363M Q1 + $483M Q2) is a data point but not a reaffirmation. Two consecutive omissions with no acknowledgement is a de facto retirement — the qualitative "double-digit FCF growth" is now the operative guide, which off the FY2025 $3.218B base implies materially below the $4.3B path.

Resolved negatively

Q2 FY2026 organic growth vs. Q1's 5%. Q2 organic printed 5%, matching Q1. Two consecutive prints at the floor of "mid-single-digit or greater" converts the phrase into a 5% expectation rather than a band centered higher. Commercial Risk organic specifically decelerated from Q1's 7% to Q2's 5%, undoing part of the Q3 FY2025 → Q1 FY2026 acceleration story.

Resolved negatively

Restructuring savings cadence. The Q2 FY2026 press release does not restore the restructuring vs. ABS margin decomposition or disclose in-quarter restructuring savings dollars. Adjusted operating margin expansion of 70bps YoY is in-line with the FY floor, but investors cannot verify the ~50bps restructuring contribution from $100M of savings is tracking.

Not resolved

Buyback pace against the dropped $1B+ floor. $600M of repurchases in Q2 alone plus $175M of dividends brings YTD capital return to roughly $1.44B — comfortably above the retired ≥$1B FY floor at the half-year mark. The pace accelerated versus Q1's $500M of repurchases.

Resolved positively

Wealth Solutions stabilization. Q2 FY2026 Wealth Solutions revenue of $426M grew 5% YoY headline / 5% organic — a clean read on the residual Wealth business post-NFP-divestiture, with headline now aligned to organic rather than the -19% / +1% divergence of Q1.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Q3 FY2026 organic vs. the Q3 FY2025 7% comp. Q3 FY2025 organic was 7% — the peak of the coverage window. A third consecutive 5% print against that comp would demonstrate mean reversion; a print of 6%+ would suggest the H1 deceleration is temporary. With Q3 FY2026 FX guided to de minimis, organic is the cleaner read on the underlying growth profile.

Commercial Risk organic trajectory. The segment decelerated from Q1's 7% to Q2's 5% — a 200bps step-down in the segment that carries the durability narrative. Watch whether Q3 stabilizes or continues to soften, and whether property rate compression (which Q1 flagged as "materially negative") deepens.

Whether any retired numerical disclosure returns. The $4.3B FCF target, the ≥$1B buyback floor, and the 50/40-50bps margin decomposition have now been absent for two quarters. Watch Q3 for either the return of any specific dollar/basis-point framework or an explicit acknowledgement that the qualitative framework is permanent.

YTD H1 FCF of $846M against the "double-digit FCF growth" guide. Off the FY2025 $3.218B base, double-digit growth implies at least ~$3.54B for FY2026. With $846M in the books at half-year (vs. $1.895B needed at half-year to hit $3.79B on a straight-line basis), H2 will need to deliver ~$2.7B — consistent with historical H2 weighting but a demanding bar. Watch Q3 FCF for confirmation the seasonal ramp is intact.

FX benefit erosion. FY2026 FX benefit narrowed from $0.44 to $0.42 this quarter and Q3 FX is now guided to de minimis (vs. Q1's $0.36 favorable in Q1 FY2026). Any further currency deterioration would put more pressure on organic and margin to deliver "strong adjusted EPS growth."

Sources

Aon plc, Q2 FY2026 Press Release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), filed July 29, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315293/000162828026050367/ex991prq22026.htm

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