Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

APTV · Q4 2025 Earnings

Aptiv

Reported February 2, 2026

30-second summary

Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $798M landed above the midpoint of the $740-840M guide, adjusted operating margin of 11.8% was at the midpoint of 11.1-12.4%, and adjusted EPS of $1.86 came in near the top of the $1.60-1.90 range. But the 2026 framework is the real story: management cut the embedded vehicle production assumption from +1% to -1%, guided Q1 FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin to 14.7% (vs. 15.5% just printed), flagged DRAM/semiconductor inflation passing through to customers, and disclosed 2025 bookings of $27B vs. the $31B target — confirming the sales-cycle friction that has now persisted three quarters.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$1.86

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$5.15B

+5.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

18.7%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

8.2%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$5.15B	+5.0%	$5.21B	-1.1%
EPS	$1.86	—	$2.17	-14.3%
Gross margin	18.7%	—	19.5%	-80bps
Operating margin	8.2%	—	-3.4%	+1160bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q4 FY2025	$4,905 - $5,205 million	$5,153 million	in-line (midpoint $5,055M vs actual $5,153M, +$98M above midpoint)	Beat
Adjusted net income per share	Q4 FY2025	$1.60 - $1.90	$1.86	in-line (within range, near midpoint of $1.75)	Beat
Adjusted EBITDA	Q4 FY2025	$740 - $840 million	$798 million	in-line (within range, between midpoint $790M and high $840M)	Beat
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	Q4 FY2025	11.1% - 12.4%	15.5%	+3.1-4.4pts above guide	Beat
Adjusted Operating Income Margin	Q4 FY2025	11.1% - 12.4%	11.8%	in-line (within range)	Beat
Adjusted net income per share	FY2025	$7.55 - $7.85	$7.82	in-line (within range, near high end)	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	Q1 FY2026	$4,950 - $5,150 million	—
Adjusted net income per share	Q1 FY2026	$1.55 - $1.75	—
Adjusted EBITDA	Q1 FY2026	$715 - $765 million	—
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	Q1 FY2026	14.7%	—
Revenue	FY2026	$21,120 - $21,820 million	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Revenue	FY2025	$20,150 - $20,450 million	$20,398 million	N/A — this is reported actual, not forward guidance	Raised

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Advanced Safety and User Experience	$1.419B	+3.0%
Engineered Components Group	$1.644B	+4.0%
Electrical Distribution Systems	$2.302B	+8.0%
Advanced Safety Adjusted Operating Income	$161 million	—
Engineered Components Adjusted Operating Income	$270 million	—
Electrical Distribution Systems Adjusted Operating Income	$176 million	—

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Adjusted Operating Income Margin	11.8%
Adjusted EBITDA	$798 million
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	15.5%
Operating Cash Flow	$818 million

Management tone

Management's framing has hardened from cyclical caution to a multi-year framework of persistent macro and input-cost drag requiring contractual offsets.

Vehicle production is the cleanest tone reversal. Earlier in the year management was guiding to +1% global production in 2026 as the basis for the "accelerated growth" narrative. This quarter the framing was that "the schedules report a relatively weak year-over-year market in the first quarter…vehicle production being down, you know, roughly 4%," with full-year now at -1%. That's a 2-point swing in the embedded macro and explains why the Q1 EBITDA margin of 14.7% sits below the Q4 print despite the 2026 16.2% FY target. The acceleration is no longer back-loaded by a quarter — it's back-loaded by three.

Semiconductor strategy has shifted from supply-risk management to cost-inflation pass-through. The framing this quarter is explicit: management expects "higher input costs related to semiconductors, which we will pass on to our customers," noting market chatter of 100-120% memory price increases in 2027 that Aptiv expects to come in below. That's a different problem — supply resilience converts to a contract-negotiation risk where customer pushback is the new variable. Management's own hedge — "highly confident we'll be able to push those cost increases through to our OEM customers" — is itself a hedge.

EV program cancellation recoveries are now baked into baseline guidance, not framed as upside. Management was candid that these recoveries should not be considered "upside to our overall operating performance" because "they still need to be negotiated and finalized." That is a concession that the 2026 framework assumes negotiations that aren't yet finalized will close at favorable terms, with recoveries effectively a load-bearing component of margin math rather than upside optionality.

Bookings missed for 2025. The $31B FY2025 target landed at $27B with shortfall attributed to "customer awards shifting to the first half of 2026." Management now guides 2026 bookings "to over $30 billion" including Versigent — meaning the standalone RemainCo bookings number has effectively been reset lower. The "extending sales cycles" theme has now persisted multiple quarters and shows in the numbers.

The margin-walk story has fundamentally changed. Earlier in 2025 the bridge was "organic growth offsets input cost inflation." Now the 2026 margin walk is framed in two distinct bridges: for RemainCo (New Aptiv), commodities are a ~50bps EBITDA margin headwind with net price-downs of 1-1.5 points, offset by manufacturing/material and labor economics performance; for Versigent, ~50bps commodity headwind and ~60bps price-down headwind are offset by roughly 130bps of manufacturing/material performance recovery. Operational efficiency is now the primary lever, not growth — a meaningful shift in the lever the company is pulling to defend margin.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Semiconductor inflation and DRAM shortage risk managed via inventory build but cost pass-through uncertainRegional divergence: North America strong (non-auto, software), China improved mix but volumes weak, Europe flatNon-automotive revenue growth (8% in 2025) as margin offset but remains ~25% of Aptiv mixStranded costs ($50M for RemainCo, $15M for Versagen) and separation costs ($250M+ in 2026) as 2026-only headwindsCommercial recovery negotiations ongoing with OEMs for EV program cancellations; embedded in guidance but not upsideResilient operating model and supply chain resilience (95% visibility to tier 3) as differentiator vs. peers

Risks management surfaced:

DRAM and semiconductor price inflation in 2026 (low double digits) and 2027 (potentially 50-120%); customer pass-through not guaranteedFX volatility, particularly Mexican peso (currently sub-18 vs. 21 year-ago); 95% hedged below 18 for 2026 but structural weaknessGlobal vehicle production declining 1% in 2026 vs. prior guidance for +1%; China weakness and North America EV headwindsNet price-downs (1-1.5 points annually) and labor economics headwinds, particularly for Versagen EDS businessGeopolitical uncertainty, tariffs, and customer procurement delays shifting bookings timing; 2025 bookings $27B vs. $31B target

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 adj. operating margin vs. 11.8% midpoint — Landed at 11.8% exactly, the midpoint of the 11.1-12.4% guide. Adjusted EBITDA at $798M cleared the midpoint with EPS at the high end.

Resolved positively

2026 revenue growth quantification — FY2026 consolidated revenue guide of $21.12-21.82B implies +3.5-7% growth. Pro forma splits disclosed: New Aptiv (RemainCo) $12.80-13.20B, Versigent (EDS spin) $9.10-9.40B. The acceleration claim is real but modest — midpoint +5.3% vs. 2025's +3.5%.

Resolved positively

Wind River 2025 revenue vs. "mid-teens growth" — Not separately disclosed on the print. Management did not call out Wind River performance against the prior "mid-teens" target, which itself is a tell given the $648M impairment two quarters back.

Continue monitoring

ASUX recovery durability — Segment grew +3% YoY in Q4. Asia regional revenue is now -1% YoY, suggesting Chinese program cancellations continue to weigh. Not an inflection.

Continue monitoring

EDS spin closing milestones and cost framework — Versigent pro forma 2026 revenue $9.10-9.40B and RemainCo pro forma EBITDA margin 18.6% disclosed. Stranded costs sized at $50M (RemainCo) + $15M (Versigent) = $65M, with separation costs of $250M+ in 2026. The cost framework is now quantified.

Resolved positively

FY2025 bookings vs. ~$31B target — Landed at $27B, a $4B shortfall. Management attributes to timing shift into 1H 2026; 2026 target restated as ">$30B including Versigent," which is a softer benchmark than the prior $31B RemainCo-only target.

Resolved negatively

Discrete disclosure of Nexperia/ASML semiconductor exposure — Not quantified discretely. Management instead framed 2026 semiconductor pricing as "low double digits" inflation passed to customers, with 2027 potentially seeing market-chatter price increases of 100-120% that Aptiv expects to come in below. The exposure remains buried in "we'll pass it through" language.

Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin vs. 14.7% guide — at 80bps below the Q4 print, a miss to the downside would imply the 16.2% FY2026 target requires H2 margin in the 17%+ range, which would be a heavy ask given the -1% vehicle production backdrop.

Customer semiconductor pass-through evidence: any disclosure of contractual mechanisms successfully invoked for 2026 DRAM/memory inflation, vs. management's stated "high confidence" that remains qualitative.

1H 2026 bookings landing — management has flagged that a meaningful share of the >$30B annual target rides on deferred 2025 awards closing in the first half. Failure to deliver would validate that customer procurement delays are structural, not timing.

ASUX trajectory under Versigent separation: with EDS carved out, RemainCo margin attention shifts to ASUX as the software-defined-vehicle lever. Does the segment widen toward +5%+ growth or remain stuck in low single digits?

EV program cancellation recoveries — management embedded these in baseline guide. Any 1H 2026 disclosure that negotiations stalled would create direct margin downside; current framing is "ongoing."

Vehicle production assumption durability: 1Q schedules indicate -4% YoY. If the -1% full-year assumption deteriorates further, the revenue guide low end ($21.12B, +3.5%) becomes the working case rather than the midpoint.

Sources

Aptiv Q4 2025 press release, exhibit 99.1 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1521332/000152133226000004/aptv2025ex991.htm
Aptiv Q4 2025 earnings call commentary (prepared remarks and Q&A from Kevin and Varun)

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