Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

APTV · Q4 2025 Earnings

Aptiv

Reported February 2, 2026

30-second summary

Aptiv hit the middle of its Q4 guide across revenue ($5.15B, +5% YoY), adj. EPS ($1.86), and adj. EBITDA ($798M) — no print drama, the embedded Nexperia/customer-disruption conservatism proved adequate. The forward story now belongs to the Versigent separation: FY2026 guidance is issued in three flavors (Total Aptiv $21.12B–$21.82B, New Aptiv $12.8B–$13.2B at 18.6% EBITDA margin, Versigent $9.1B–$9.4B at 10.7% margin), the operating cash flow guide steps down to $1.315B–$1.515B from FY2025's $2.185B actual on separation costs, and management is reaffirming the 200bps long-term margin expansion target despite stranded costs, FX, commodity, and DRAM headwinds it has now quantified. FY2025 bookings landed at $27B vs. the $31B target — a miss attributed to programs shifting into H1 2026 — and management is now committing to $30B+ in 2026 Total Aptiv bookings (including Versigent) to absorb the deferral.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$1.86

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$5.15B

+5.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

18.7%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

8.2%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$5.15B	+5.0%	$5.20B	-0.9%
EPS	$1.86	—	$2.17	-14.3%
Gross margin	18.7%	—	—	—
Operating margin	8.2%	—	-3.4%	+1160bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q4 FY2025	$4,905 - $5,205 billion	$5.153 billion	in-line	Met
Adjusted Net Income Per Share	Q4 FY2025	$1.60 - $1.90	$1.86	in-line	Met
Adjusted EBITDA	Q4 FY2025	$740 - $840 million	$798 million	in-line	Met
Revenue	FY2025	$20,150 - $20,450 million	$20,398 million	in-line	Met
Adjusted Net Income Per Share	FY2025	$7.55 - $7.85	$7.82	in-line	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	Q1 FY2026	$4,950 - $5,150 million	—
Adjusted Net Income Per Share	Q1 FY2026	$1.55 - $1.75	—
Revenue	FY2026	$21,120 - $21,820 million	+3.5% to +6.9%
Adjusted Net Income Per Share	FY2026	$8.15 - $8.75	+4.2% to +11.9%
Adjusted EBITDA	FY2026	$3,385 - $3,585 million	—
Operating Cash Flow	FY2026	$1,315 - $1,515 million	—
Free Cash Flow	FY2026	$650 - $850 million	—

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Advanced Safety and User Experience	$1.419B	+3.0%
Engineered Components Group	$1.644B	+4.0%
Electrical Distribution Systems	$2.302B	+8.0%
Advanced Safety and User Experience Adjusted Operating Income	$161 million	—
Engineered Components Group Adjusted Operating Income	$270 million	—
Electrical Distribution Systems Adjusted Operating Income	$176 million	—

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Adjusted Operating Income Margin	11.8%
Adjusted EBITDA	$798 million
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	15.5%
Operating Cash Flow	$818 million

Management tone

Tariff resilience → consumer demand caution → amplified trade tensions → quantified hedging and execution-led margin story

This quarter the macro vocabulary moves from "we can't size it" to "here is what we've sized." Management is now budgeting roughly 50bps of commodity drag for both RemainCo and Versigent in 2026, and has built semiconductor inventory to roughly 12 weeks with 99% visibility into the semiconductor supply chain down to tier-five levels (and 95% visibility across the broader supply chain to at least tier three) — the same risk surface that was unquantified conservatism three months ago is now embedded in the guide. "We see minimal impact to us from a supply perspective in 2026." This is the largest single tonal shift since Q2: the chip risk that was binary at Q3 has been converted into a managed line item.

A quarter ago bookings timing was slipping with explicit acknowledgement that awards "could shift into 2026." This quarter the deferral was confirmed in the numbers: FY2025 bookings came in at $27B versus the $31B target, with the shortfall explicitly attributed to programs shifting into H1 2026. Management is now committing to "2026 bookings for Total Aptiv, including Versigent, to increase to over $30 billion" — the deferred awards are framed as inbound rather than at risk, but the $4B shortfall is now actual rather than hypothetical and the $30B+ forward number will be tested on H1 actuals.

The margin story has also detached from volume. With management's vehicle-production assumption now at -1% for 2026 (down from +1% in October/November) and Q1 production -4%, management is reaffirming the 200bps long-term margin expansion target via manufacturing, material, and labor economics — RemainCo +30bps ex-stranded costs, Versigent +40bps on 2% top-line growth. This is the third quarter in a row that the margin walk has leaned harder on operational levers rather than market recovery, but now it is explicit: expansion is being underwritten without volume help.

Non-automotive has been repriced upward in disclosure. Where Q3 carried the Wind River impairment and a quieter framing, Q4 puts a number on it: more than $4 billion in non-auto new business bookings in 2025, non-auto revenue growing ~8 points full year, now described as "a quarter of the business" with mid-teens software/services growth. The bull case management was unwilling to defend at Q3 it is now defending with disclosure — a notable rebound in posture on the same business that was impaired four months ago.

Stranded costs are the new visible drag. Management put a $50M figure on FY2026 stranded costs from the separation. That is the cost of the pro forma split being clean: RemainCo's reported margin expansion is +30bps only after absorbing the stranded layer, which is why the operating cash flow guide steps down so sharply from $2.185B actual to $1.315–1.515B.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Non-automotive market penetration (robotics, aerospace, industrial automation)Supply chain resilience through inventory and visibility investmentMargin expansion via operational performance rather than volumeSoftware and services as faster-growing, higher-margin business segmentDisciplined capital allocation funding debt reduction post-spinRegional outperformance in North America and APAC offsetting Europe weakness

Risks management surfaced:

Semiconductor DRAM pricing: low double-digit increases in 2026, potentially 100-120% in 2027 (in negotiation)Foreign exchange volatility, particularly Mexican peso (currently sub-18 vs 21 guidance assumption)Copper commodity pricing exposure for Versagen (indexed, 3-month lag on pass-through)Labor economics headwinds, particularly for Versagen operationsGlobal vehicle production uncertainty: IHS shifted from +1% to -1% for 2026, Q1 down 4%

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 adj. operating margin within the 11.1–12.4% guide — Adj. operating margin landed at 11.8%, the midpoint. EBITDA margin of 15.5% and EBITDA of $798M also middle-of-range. The embedded Nexperia and customer-disruption conservatism proved correctly calibrated — neither generous nor too thin.

Resolved positively

Nexperia/semiconductor trade tension resolution — Management appears to have de-risked rather than waited for resolution. Inventory at ~12 weeks, 99% tier-five semiconductor supply visibility, and the assertion of "minimal impact" in 2026 substitute supply moat for political outcome. DRAM pricing is now the named 2026 watch (low double-digit increases in 2026 per management's Q&A; 2027 expected higher than 2026 but materially below the 100–120% figures circulating in the market) with management asserting pricing pass-through capability.

Resolved positively

2026 bookings recovery and clear bridge to deferred awards — FY2025 bookings of $27B fell $4B short of the $31B target, with shortfall explicitly attributed to programs shifting into H1 2026. Management has now committed to 2026 Total Aptiv bookings "over $30 billion," stating the previously shifted programs are well-positioned and expected to be awarded. The deferral is confirmed; the recovery is now a forward commitment to be tested. Status: Partially resolved — miss confirmed, forward number pending.

ASUX growth re-acceleration — ASUX grew +3% in Q4. However, Asia revenue overall declined -1% in Q4 (with China specifically -5%), so the segment improvement is being driven outside China rather than by the China platform mix actually abating. Management noted on the call that the Q2 China intelligent-systems program issues lap in H2 2026. Status: Resolved positively at the segment line, with a footnote.

EDS separation execution and stranded cost quantification — Pro forma disclosures are now full: New Aptiv $12.8–13.2B at 18.6% EBITDA margin, Versigent $9.1–9.4B at 10.7% margin. Stranded costs disclosed at $50M for FY2026. This is the cleanest separation disclosure to date.

Resolved positively

Wind River growth trajectory post-impairment — Not separately disclosed in the press release, but folded into the non-auto narrative of mid-teens software/services growth contributing to "a quarter of the business." Mid-teens is consistent with the recalibrated guide management set in Q3.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 FY2026 print against the $4.95–5.15B / $1.55–1.75 EPS guide, with IHS Q1 vehicle production forecast down 4% — a print at the low end would mean the consumer-demand caution dating back to Q2 has finally arrived, and would pressure the FY 3.5–6.9% growth guide.

FY2026 operating cash flow conversion — guide of $1.315–1.515B versus $2.185B actual in FY2025 is a sharp step-down attributed to separation charges. Watch whether ex-separation conversion holds at historical levels or whether working capital absorption is deeper than disclosed.

Bookings cadence into the $30B+ FY2026 target — Q1 is the first test of whether the deferred awards management said are "well-positioned" actually land. A weak Q1 bookings disclosure would re-open the Q3 slippage narrative now that the $27B vs $31B miss is confirmed.

DRAM pricing pass-through evidence — management is asserting confidence in pushing low-double-digit 2026 DRAM increases (and higher in 2027, though below the 100–120% market chatter) to OEMs. Watch the gross margin line for evidence of pass-through latency, particularly in Q2–Q3 FY2026.

Asia/China stabilization — Asia turned to -1% in Q4 (China specifically -5%). Management expects H2 2026 China comparisons to benefit from lapping the Q2 intelligent-systems program issues; a second consecutive Asia decline in Q1 would suggest the China platform mix issue is more structural than transitional.

Spin execution timeline and any update to stranded-cost figure — $50M is the current disclosure; separation-related items historically expand as the date nears. Watch for any revision in subsequent disclosures or 8-Ks.

Sources

Aptiv Q4 2025 press release, exhibit 99.1 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1521332/000152133226000004/aptv2025ex991.htm

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