Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

BG · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bunge Global

Reported February 4, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: Bunge beat the top of its own FY25 guide with $7.57 adjusted EPS, but the FY26 outlook of $7.50–$8.00 is effectively flat-to-down on a much bigger balance sheet, with net interest expense guided up to $575–$625M from $380–$400M and D&A up to ~$975M from ~$710M as the Viterra integration fully lands on the P&L. Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.99 came in above the ~$1.85 implied midpoint, so the hockey stick held — but the message into 2026 is a 30/70 first-half/second-half split, "limited forward visibility," and an explicit refusal to model RVO upside. Synergies running ahead ($190M realized vs. $175M target) are being almost entirely absorbed by financing and amortization drag.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$1.99

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$23.76B

+75.4% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

4.3%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

1.1%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$23.76B	+75.4%	$22.16B	+7.3%
EPS	$1.99	—	$2.27	-12.3%
Gross margin	4.3%	—	4.8%	-55bps
Operating margin	1.1%	—	1.8%	-71bps

Guidance

FY2025 results slightly beat guidance; FY2026 outlook reflects significant post-acquisition headwinds (interest +44–56%, D&A +37%) partially offset by ahead-of-schedule synergy realization ($190M), with macro uncertainty constraining EPS growth.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS	FY 2025	$7.30 to $7.60	$7.57	in-line (top of prior range)	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Adjusted EPS	FY 2026	$7.50 to $8.00	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted annual effective tax rate	FY 2026	23% to 25% (FY2025)	23% to 27% (FY2026)	+2pts at high end	Raised
Net interest expense	FY 2026	$380 to $400 million (FY2025)	$575 to $625 million (FY2026)	+$175–$225 million	Raised
Capital expenditures	FY 2026	$1.6 to $1.7 billion (FY2025)	$1.5 to $1.7 billion (FY2026)	−$0.1 billion at low end	Lowered
Depreciation and amortization	FY 2026	approximately $710 million (FY2025)	approximately $975 million (FY2026)	+$265 million (37.3%)	Raised

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Soybean Processing and Refining	$11.045B	+32.0%
Softseed Processing and Refining	$4.545B	+151.4%
Other Oilseeds Processing and Refining	$1.191B	+6.6%
Grain Merchandising and Milling	$6.982B	+211.3%

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Soybeans Processed	11,460 thousand metric tons
Soybeans Merchandised	6,912 thousand metric tons
Softseeds Processed	3,481 thousand metric tons
Grain Volumes Handled	26,194 thousand metric tons

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Adjusted Segment EBIT	$756 million
Adjusted Total EBIT	$622 million
Gross Profit	$1,011 million
Adjusted Funds from Operations (FY)	$1,733 million

Management tone

Narrative arc: Viterra waiting game → Viterra closes, EPS held → Viterra dilutive, EPS cut → Synergies on track but absorbed by financing drag

Three quarters ago Viterra was a regulatory waiting game with an $11+ mid-cycle EPS anchor implied; two quarters ago it closed and management held $7.75; last quarter the guide was cut to $7.30–$7.60 with the cycle called "at the bottom"; this quarter the FY26 guide of $7.50–$8.00 confirms that the combined company is structurally a $7–$8 EPS business for now, not a $10+ one. The $190M of realized 2026 synergies — ahead of the $175M target — is being almost entirely absorbed by $175–$225M of incremental net interest expense and $265M of incremental D&A. The integration is working on the cost line; the capital structure is what is capping earnings power.

Management's RVO posture shifted from policy-as-tailwind to policy-as-hedge. Last quarter the half-RIN technical implementation was newly disclosed as a risk; this quarter management went further: "Our outlook, we did not put any assumptions about what the RVO, you know, would do to the curves or the profitability beyond what the curves are already showing," paired with "we believe the curves do not properly reflect what opportunities should develop during the year once the policy is finalized." That construction lets management claim upside optionality without committing earnings to it — a defensible posture, but one that explicitly admits the guide does not embed the catalyst that was supposed to drive the R&SO recovery.

The Q1 setup has deteriorated faster than the full-year framing implies. Q2's "30/70 H1/H2" became Q3's "softer Q4" and is now Q4's "Q1 is a really light quarter… we're a much bigger company, you know, but a lot of, you know, uncertainty in what we found, what we've seen really second half of 25 and especially in the Q1 of 26 is very spot customers on both ends." The 30/70 split is now framed as below seasonal norms, meaning the back-half hockey stick into 2026 is steeper than the one that just barely held in 2025.

The megaproject contribution story has slipped a full year. Last quarter capex was reaffirmed in the $1.6–$1.7B range with multi-year project completion expected in 2026; this quarter management said "We really don't, we have not modeled in really much, if any, contribution from those projects… they'll really be contributing a lot more as we get into 27." The $350M capex drop in 2026 is real cash relief, but the earnings contribution that was supposed to follow has been pushed out — meaning 2026 absorbs the cost of the projects with none of the benefit.

The confidence-versus-evidence gap widened. Management's "We've never been in a better position, we've never been more needed, and we've never been more prepared" sits against a guide that is flat-to-down YoY and an explicit acknowledgment of "limited forward visibility, particularly related to U.S. biofuel policy." When management has to lead with positioning language while the numbers are flat, the read is that they are defending the deal economics rather than describing the operating environment.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

RVO policy uncertainty as binary earnings catalyst (5.2-5.6B gallons unresolved)Spot market, heavy stocks, farmer reluctance to sell limiting near-term monetizationVITERRA synergy realization ahead of schedule ($190M vs. $175M target) but commercial synergies nascentBack-half weighted earnings (30-70 split) reflecting Q1 weakness and deferred policy clarityMegaproject completion in 2026 with value creation pushed to 2027Global merchandising positioning as optionality play dependent on disruption/volatility

Risks management surfaced:

U.S. biofuel policy RVO finalization timing and volume (5.2-5.6B gallon range creates uncertainty)Heavy U.S. soybean oil stocks creating downside pressure until demand materializes post-RVO claritySunflower seed production weakness in Black Sea/Europe for second consecutive year pressuring soft-crush marginsGeopolitical trade disruption and China-U.S. trade dynamics affecting bean flows and crush profitabilityGrain merchandising integration complexity and slower synergy realization versus crush operations

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 EPS vs. the ~$1.85 implied midpoint — Q4 adjusted EPS came in at $1.99, above the implied midpoint, and FY25 landed at $7.57 — the top of the $7.30–$7.60 guide. The hockey stick held and the second consecutive guide cut was avoided.

Resolved positively

March Investor Day mid-cycle EPS recast and Viterra synergy quantification — The Investor Day has not yet occurred, but the FY26 EPS guide of $7.50–$8.00 and the explicit $190M 2026 synergy realization (vs. $175M target, with a $220M run-rate by year-end) effectively pre-empt the recast. The pre-Viterra $11+ mid-cycle anchor is implicitly off the table for at least another year.

Continue monitoring

Net interest expense run-rate into 2026 — Far worse than expected. FY26 net interest expense guided to $575–$625M, up $175–$225M (+44% to +56%) from the FY25 $380–$400M baseline. No refinancing relief signaled. This is the single largest headwind to the FY26 guide.

Resolved negatively

RVO half-RIN technical implementation and the "early 2026" margin recovery thesis — Unresolved. Management explicitly built the FY26 guide on forward curves only, noting "the environment remains complex with limited forward visibility, particularly related to U.S. biofuel policy." The "early 2026" recovery has slipped — management is now framing RVO as upside optionality not embedded in numbers, with the H2 2026 weighting implying any benefit shows up in the second half at earliest.

Continue monitoring

Capital returns cadence after Q3's $545M repurchase — Not disclosed in the press release detail available; with net interest stepping up $175–$225M and capex still $1.5–$1.7B against a flat EPS guide, the cash flexibility for repurchases at the Q3 pace is materially reduced.

Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 2026 adjusted EPS print against management's "really light quarter" framing — the 30/70 H1/H2 split implies Q1 of roughly $0.80–$1.00; a sub-$0.80 print would put the FY26 low end of $7.50 immediately at risk and likely force an early guide cut

March Investor Day disclosures — specifically whether a combined-company mid-cycle EPS anchor is finally issued, whether megaproject 2027 contribution gets quantified, and whether the synergy run-rate ceiling above the $220M end-2026 mark is articulated

RVO finalization (volume and half-RIN treatment) and the magnitude of the curve revision once policy lands — management has explicitly said the curves under-reflect the opportunity, so a finalized RVO at the high end of the 5.2–5.6B gallon range is the binary upside catalyst

Net interest expense trajectory within the $575–$625M range and any signaled refinancing or debt paydown plan — if the run-rate trends to the high end, the FY26 guide midpoint is at risk regardless of operating performance

Buyback pace in Q1 2026 versus Q3 2025's $545M — a materially slower repurchase cadence would confirm that the post-Viterra capital structure is constraining shareholder returns, validating the bear case on the deal economics

Sources

Bunge Global Q4 2025 earnings press release (SEC EDGAR, filed February 4, 2026): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1996862/000162828026005261/epr123120254.htm
Tapebrief Q3 2025 brief for BG (internal reference for prior guidance baseline)
Tapebrief Q2 2025 brief for BG (internal reference for narrative arc)

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