BLK · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bullish

BlackRock

Reported January 15, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: BlackRock closed 2025 with Q4 revenue of $7.01B (+23% YoY, +7.7% QoQ), non-GAAP EPS of $13.16, and a record $14.04T AUM, with Q4 organic base fee growth annualizing at 12% — the second consecutive double-digit print and a step up from Q3's 10%. Management exited the year with base fees approaching $21B, 13% above 2025 and ~35% above 2024, and committed to broadly flat headcount in 2026 with mid-single-digit G&A growth post HPS/Prequin annualization — the clearest operating leverage signal this management team has issued. The narrative has fully transitioned from "integrating three acquisitions" to "running a public-private-digital convergence platform," and the numbers are now backing the rhetoric.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$13.16

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$7.01B

+23.4% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

23.7%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$7.01B	+23.4%	$6.51B	+7.7%
EPS	$13.16	—	$11.55	+13.9%
Operating margin	23.7%	—	30.0%	-630bps

Guidance

BlackRock enters FY2026 with accelerating momentum: base fees approaching $21B (13% YoY growth), organic base fee growth on track for 12% annualized in Q4, while maintaining disciplined cost growth (mid-single-digit G&A) and flat headcount, supporting margin expansion and shareholder returns.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q4 FY2025	Not numerically specified	$7.008 billion	in-line with qualitative guidance ('seasonally strongest quarter')	Met
EPS (Non-GAAP)	Q4 FY2025	Not numerically specified	$13.16	in-line	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Operating Margin	FY 2025	29.1% (GAAP); 45.0% (As Adjusted)	—
Base Fees Entry Run Rate (vs FY2024)	FY 2026	Approximately 35% higher than FY2024	—
Base Fees Entry Run Rate (vs FY2023)	FY 2026	Approximately 50% higher than FY2023	—
Base Fees Expected Entry Level	FY 2026	Approaching $21 billion, 13% higher than FY2025	+13% YoY vs FY2025
G&A Expense Growth	FY 2026	Mid-single-digit percentage increase (after annualizing for HPS and Prequin impact)	—
Headcount	FY 2026	Broadly flat	—
Share Repurchase Target	FY 2026	$1.8 billion	—

Capital & returns

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Shares Repurchased	$1.6 billion
Dividend per Share	$5.73 (10% increase approved)

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
AUM	$14.04 trillion
Total Net Flows	$342 billion
Long-term Net Flows	$268 billion
ETF Net Flows	$181 billion
Organic Base Fee Growth (Q4 annualized)	12%
As Adjusted Operating Margin	45.0%

Management tone

Q1-25 private markets pipeline → Q2-25 HPS as P&L inflection → Q3-25 convergence as operating model → Q4-25 platform leverage with explicit dollar targets.

Private markets framing has compressed an entire planning cycle into one quarter. Three quarters ago, the 30%-by-2030 target was an aspirational mix shift; last quarter it was a near-term P&L event with $450M of HPS revenue in the base; this quarter Fink quantified the cumulative ask and the revenue prize in a single breath: "We're targeting $400 billion in gross private markets fundraising through 2030... that shift represents new private markets AUM and potentially over $1 billion in new base fees." The pivot from "we will integrate" to "we will deliver $1B+ in incremental fees" is the clearest commercial commitment Fink has made in his recent tenure.

The organic base fee growth ceiling has now been raised twice in two quarters. In Q2 management framed 5% as a floor; in Q3 the 10% print was framed as breadth-driven; this quarter management entered 2026 with 12% Q4 annualized and a 13% entry-rate uplift baked into next year's guide. Martin's framing on the call: "We ended the year with 12% organic base seed growth, record flows, and a new AUM high at $14 trillion. This already lifts our base seed entry level rate by 13%." The math is no longer aspirational — it's mechanically loaded into FY26.

Operating leverage is being articulated as the dominant 2026 story for the first time. Last quarter margin recovery was attributed to "HPS performance-related comp normalizing"; this quarter management is explicit that headcount is broadly flat against 13% base fee growth and G&A decelerates from low-teens to mid-single-digit growth post-acquisition annualization. CFO Small's framing in Q&A: targets margin on fee-related earnings "moving toward 50%+ (like best-in-class private market names)", with GIP and HPS both already at 50%+ FRE margins. That is a meaningfully different conversation than "recover to 45%."

Competitive positioning has been reframed from scale to performance. Fink's most pointed line this quarter: "It's not that the big are getting bigger, it's that the best are getting bigger. Size and scale are outputs of performance." That language — explicitly contesting the indexing-incumbent narrative that has dogged BlackRock for years — is the most aggressive posture on share gains in recent memory and signals a willingness to compete on alpha, not just distribution.

Digital assets language has moved from "infrastructure ambition" to "asset management model of the future." Q3's framing anchored a $4.5T digital wallet TAM; Q4 went further: "We're pioneering what we believe is the asset management model of the future. It's one that seamlessly brings together public and private markets. It interoperates between traditional and decentralized financial ecosystems." The deliberate co-positioning of legacy and Web3 in one sentence is unusual for an incumbent of BlackRock's size and signals Fink will not cede the tokenization narrative to insurgents.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Private markets integration unlocking wealth, insurance, and retirement channelsActive ETF momentum and systematic equity as bright spots in active industry declinePlatform consolidation (BlackRock + GIP + HPS + Prequin) enabling end-to-end public/private markets solutionsTechnology and data (Aladdin, eFront, Prequin) as strategic differentiation and revenue driverGeographic expansion momentum in Asia, Europe, and emerging markets driving double-digit organic growthRecord capital returns and dividend growth reflecting durable earnings trajectory

Risks management surfaced:

Market redemptions from low-fee index equity strategies (institutional index net outflows of $119B)Performance fee volatility and related compensation expense impact on marginsExecution risks on $400B private markets fundraising target through 2030Regulatory and tax legislation changes affecting effective tax rate assumptionsIntegration complexity of four major acquisitions across operational and cultural dimensions

Q&A highlights

Craig Siegenthaler · Bank of America

Asked about NetFlow pipeline outlook for 2026 and whether Fed rate cuts would reverse flows in money market business, and where that liquidity would go.

Management highlighted organic base fee growth momentum (12% Q4, 9% full year), expecting 6-7%+ consistently powered by private markets, systematic strategies, and digital assets. On money markets, acknowledged that rate cuts will cause yields to fall but emphasized bond returns will be driven by income rather than rate moves, seeing generational opportunity in intermediate-term bonds. Fixed income flows exceeded $80 billion in Q4. Management also noted that as global capital markets grow, cash holdings will grow alongside, and tokenization could drive above-trend cash holdings.

12% organic base fee growth in Q4, 9% for full year 2024Expecting 6-7% or higher consistent organic base fee growth going forward$80 billion fixed income flows in Q4$52 billion iShares bond flows in Q4, $175 billion for the year (18% organic growth)

Michael Cypress · Morgan Stanley

Asked about BlackRock's priorities and growth acceleration strategy across Asia, from India partnerships to Japan initiatives, and expected contribution to overall firm growth.

Management emphasized that Asian capital markets are growing faster than U.S., with specific tailwinds: Japan's NISA accounts driving wealth out of banking into capital markets, Hong Kong IPO activity and wealth management opportunities, Southeast Asia wealth generation, and India's capital markets at early stages with self-directed retirement platform opportunities. Highlighted that these markets are transitioning from capital exporters to importers and developing their own capital markets. Referenced double-digit base fee growth in LATAM as another example.

Asian capital markets growing faster than U.S. capital marketsMore IPOs in Asia, especially Hong KongHistorical changes in Japan with NISA accounts and retirement accountsGeo BlackRock partnership in India with large growth potential

Mike Brown · UBS

Asked about differentiation in the insurance channel (5% of AUM today) given rising competition, how full-spectrum offerings differentiate BlackRock, and demand outlook for 2026.

Management highlighted being the largest insurance company general account manager with $700 billion in assets and 450+ relationships. Emphasized differentiation through full-service capabilities (public fixed income, private credit, Aladdin platform, middle office services). Outlined strategy to migrate ~10% of existing public fixed income assets into private high-grade (from $700B base to ~$70B), with 20+ high-grade SMA conversations underway, expecting deployments in H2 2026. Stressed insurance companies want integrated solutions, not just benchmark-beating mandates.

$700 billion in assets managed for insurance companies450+ insurance relationshipsOver $60 billion of credit assets managed for 125+ insurance companies via HPS20+ conversations on high-grade SMAs with leading insurers

Alex Blaspheme · Goldman Sachs

Asked about operating margin progression in 2026 assuming normal markets given 45% excluding performance fees in 2025, and specifics on G&A growth expectations.

Management reaffirmed targeting 45% or greater adjusted operating margin profile with margin expansion on recurring fee-related earnings. Noted Q4 margin was 45%, up 30 bps on recurring fee basis. Expects margins on fee-related earnings to move toward 50%+ (like best-in-class private market names) driven by FRE growth in private markets and high-fee strategies. On G&A, after annualizing HPS and Prequin impact, expects mid-single-digit percentage increase in 2026, with controllable expenses continuing to be aligned with organic base fee growth.

45% adjusted operating margin target (45.5% excluding performance fees in Q4)30 basis points margin expansion on recurring fee-related earnings in Q4Target for margin on fee-related earnings moving toward 50%+GIP and HPS both have 50%+ FRE margins

Dan Sannon · Jefferies

Asked for HPS private credit flows in Q4 and outlook for 2026 given recent asset class headlines and news flow.

Management disclosed $7 billion in private credit net inflows in Q4, primarily from deployment activity. Noted $25 billion deployment across private markets in 2025 led by private credit and infrastructure. Stated credit conditions remain stable across main HPS strategies despite isolated headlines. Contextualized that current defaults are rising but remain in historical ranges, with direct lending defaults below long-term averages. Stressed the promise of private credit is not zero defaults but that detailed credit work drives returns. HLEND posted strong subscriptions of $1.1 billion in Q4 with 4.1% redemptions (higher than recent quarters but in line with industry). Survey data shows 80%+ of investors plan to maintain or increase private credit allocations.

$7 billion private credit net inflows in Q4$25 billion total private markets deployment in 2025Default rates in leveraged loan market averaging slightly below 3% long-term averageNon-IG direct lending corporates default rates abnormally low historically

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 organic base fee growth above 8% LTM — Q4 annualized at 12%, full-year LTM came in at 9%, and the entry rate for 2026 is 13%. Two consecutive double-digit quarterly prints with 9% LTM full-year settles the question of whether 10% in Q3 was a peak — it was not.

Resolved positively

Q4 adjusted operating margin clearing 45% — As-adjusted operating margin hit 45.0% in Q4 (45.5% ex-performance fees, +30bps YoY on that basis), marking the first quarter at the through-cycle target since HPS closed. Management is now framing 50%+ on fee-related earnings as the next destination.

Resolved positively

Concrete tokenization announcements — Fink reiterated the "asset management model of the future" framing and the interoperability vision, but did not announce a specific tokenized ETF wrapper launch or named digital-wallet platform deal on this print. The strategic commitment hardened; the deliverables did not.

Continue monitoring

HPS private credit deployment and credit quality — Management disclosed $7B Q4 private credit inflows, $25B FY private markets deployment, characterized HPS credit conditions as stable, and cited leveraged-loan defaults below the 3% long-term average. HLEND redemptions of 4.1% were called out as elevated vs recent quarters but in-line with industry. No specific loss disclosure, but the differentiation message landed cleanly.

Resolved positively

Cash management flows sustaining acceleration — Q4 cash management revenue of $330M and total net flows of $342B (vs Q3's $204.6B) imply cash continued contributing meaningfully, but the company did not break out a clean cash flow figure on the print. Management reiterated cash as a strategic gateway and flagged tokenization as a structural cash-holding tailwind.

Continue monitoring

2026 Lifepath-with-private-allocations launch and DC regulatory progress — Management confirmed it expects to launch its first Lifepath target date fund with private markets "later this year" (2026), framing it as core retirement design rather than incremental private markets addition. No specific DOL/SEC/Congressional milestone was cited.

Continue monitoring

GIP 5 equity raise and Hutchinson ports closing — No discrete update on GIP 5 fundraising pacing or the Hutchinson transaction was disclosed on this print. The $400B 2025–2030 cumulative target was reaffirmed but without sub-target progress.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q1 organic base fee growth holds in double-digits without Q4 seasonal tailwind — three consecutive double-digit quarters would establish 10%+ as the new normal rather than a Q4 phenomenon

Q1 as-adjusted operating margin sustaining at or above 45% — Q4's 45.0% print could reflect performance-fee mix; watch the recurring fee margin specifically, with 30bps+ YoY expansion the cleanest tell

Concrete tokenization deliverables Fink has now flagged for two consecutive quarters — a named digital wallet partnership, tokenized ETF wrapper launch, or stablecoin infrastructure announcement would convert rhetoric into revenue

Insurance private-credit SMA pipeline conversion: management cited 20+ active conversations targeting ~$70B of migration with deployments in H2 2026 — watch for first named conversions or mandate sizes

HPS HLEND redemption rate trajectory — 4.1% in Q4 was elevated vs recent quarters; if Q1 prints above 5% it materially undercuts the "credit conditions stable" framing

Specific Lifepath-with-private-allocations launch timing and any initial mandate wins from DC plan sponsors — the binary readout on the 2026 retirement convergence thesis

Progress on the $400B cumulative private markets fundraising target — watch for FY25 actuals vs the implied ~$60B/year pace required to hit the 2030 number

Sources

BlackRock Q4 2025 press release (Exhibit 99.1, Form 8-K), filed 2026-01-15 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2012383/000119312526013503/blk-ex99_1.htm
BlackRock Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (management prepared remarks and Q&A)

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