CBOE · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Cboe Global Markets

Reported February 6, 2026

30-second summary

Cboe closed FY2025 with $2.43B of net revenue (+17% YoY), landing at the top of the "low double-digit to mid-teens" organic growth range it raised twice during the year. The headline disappointment is forward: management guided FY2026 organic total net revenue growth to "mid single-digit" — a roughly 10-point step-down from FY2025 — while adjusted opex guided to $864–879M, up ~3–5% from FY2025 actual of $836.5M, compressing the operating leverage story that defined 2025. Q4 itself was strong (revenue +28% YoY to $671M, adjusted operating margin 67.1%), but the 2026 reset is what will drive the stock.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$3.06

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$0.67B

+28.0% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

60.2%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$0.67B	+28.0%	$0.61B	+10.8%
EPS	$3.06	—	$2.67	+14.6%
Operating margin	60.2%	—	61.2%	-100bps

Guidance

Strong FY2025 performance at the high end of guidance masks a significant growth deceleration to 'mid single-digit' for FY2026, with operating expense guidance rising notably.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Organic total net revenue growth	FY 2025	low double-digit to mid-teens	17%	at high end of guide	Beat
Data Vantage organic net revenue growth	FY 2025	high single-digit to low double-digit	9%	at low end of guide	Missed
Adjusted operating expenses	FY 2025	$827 to $842 million	below $827 million	better than low end of guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Organic total net revenue growth	FY 2026	mid single-digit	—
Data Vantage organic net revenue growth	FY 2026	mid to high single-digit	—
Adjusted operating expenses	FY 2026	$864 to $879 million	—
Depreciation and amortization expense (excluding acquired intangible assets)	FY 2026	$56 to $60 million	—
Effective tax rate on adjusted earnings	FY 2026	27.5% to 29.5%	—

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Options	$0.433B	+34.0%
North American Equities	$0.111B	+17.0%
Europe and Asia Pacific	$0.07B	+24.0%
Futures	$0.034B	+12.0%
Global FX	$0.024B	+22.0%
Data Vantage	$0.163B	+9.0%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Total Options ADV	19,419 thousand contracts
Options Market Share	29.2%
Total Options RPC	$0.317
Index Options ADV Growth	+35% YoY
Multi-listed Options ADV Growth	+20% YoY
U.S. Equities Exchange Market Share	9.4%
Global FX ADNV	$53.3 billion
Adjusted Operating Margin	67.1%

Management tone

No earnings call transcript was available for this quarter; tone analysis is deferred until the transcript is processed. The press release language itself shifted noticeably: where Q2 and Q3 releases led with successive guidance raises and opex cuts, the Q4 release pivots to "starting 2026 with a very strong foundation" and "strategic realignment ... allocating more resources toward growth and value creation." This is reset-and-rebuild language replacing momentum-and-leverage language. The explicit reference to "secular trends in our core businesses" alongside a mid-single-digit organic growth outlook implies management expects industry growth to slow from the 2025 pace and views market-share gains as the swing factor.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Options RPC trajectory — whether it stabilizes near $0.281 or bleeds toward $0.27 — RPC rebounded to $0.317 in Q4, well above Q3's $0.281 and Q2's $0.300. The Q3 dip looks like a mix-driven blip rather than the start of a slide; capture is back to the high end of the 2025 range.

Resolved positively

Futures revenue — whether Q4 stays below -15% — Futures revenue grew +12% YoY in Q4 to $33.7M, a sharp reversal from Q3's -22%. Two quarters of double-digit declines did not become three; the segment looks cyclically soft rather than structurally impaired.

Resolved positively

Whether FY organic revenue growth lands in the upper or lower half of "low double-digit to mid-teens" — FY2025 organic revenue growth came in at 17%, at the high end of the range.

Resolved positively

Adjusted operating margin sustaining above 65% — Q4 adjusted operating margin was 67.1%, the highest print of the year and well above the 65% threshold. However, the FY2026 opex guide of $864–879M against mid-single-digit revenue growth implies this is roughly the peak; operating leverage reverses in 2026. Status: Resolved positively (Q4) / Continue monitoring (2026 sustainability)

Data Vantage growth — whether Q4 confirms the acceleration — Data Vantage Q4 revenue grew 9% YoY, putting FY2025 at the low end of the raised "high single-digit to low double-digit" range. The Q3 guide raise looks timing-driven rather than a genuine acceleration, and FY2026 guidance of "mid to high single-digit" confirms management does not expect re-acceleration.

Resolved negatively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether FY2026 organic revenue growth tracks toward the upper or lower end of "mid single-digit" — Q1 print will set the tone; anything below +4% YoY raises questions about whether the guide itself was conservative or whether 2026 is worse than already-reset expectations suggest.

Adjusted operating margin into 2026 — with opex guided ~3–5% higher than FY2025 actual against single-digit revenue growth, watch whether margin compresses below 65% in any 2026 quarter, which would mark the end of the multi-year operating leverage story.

Data Vantage growth trajectory — three consecutive quarters of single-digit growth (~9% FY2025) against a "mid to high single-digit" 2026 guide means anything below 7% reopens the structural-deceleration question on the data franchise.

Options RPC sustainability at $0.317 — Q4's bounce was sharp; whether this holds or reverts toward the $0.28–0.30 range from Q2-Q3 determines whether the Q4 Options revenue acceleration (+34%) is the new run rate or a peak.

Detail on the "strategic realignment" referenced in the press release — watch the Q1 call for specifics on what's being reallocated, whether there are restructuring charges, and whether the opex step-up funds organic investment or absorbs M&A.

Sources

Cboe Global Markets Q4 2025 earnings press release (SEC 8-K exhibit 99.1), February 6, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1374310/000162828026005944/cboe-20260206xex991.htm
Cboe Global Markets Q3 2025 earnings press release (prior-quarter guidance baseline), October 31, 2025.

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