CCL · Q2 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Carnival Corporation

Reported September 29, 2025

30-second summary

Carnival beat its own Q3 guide on every line that matters — net yields +4.6% vs. +3.5% guided, adjusted EBITDA $2.99B vs. $2.87B guided, adjusted EPS $1.43 vs. ~$1.30 guided (adjusted net income outperformed June guidance by $182M) — and raised FY2025 adjusted net income to "up nearly 55%" from "over 40%", the third consecutive quarterly raise worth $235M above the June guide. The forward signal is stronger than the in-quarter print: nearly half of 2026 is booked at historical-high constant-currency prices, and 2027 set record Q3 booking volumes. The +7.0% Q3 cost-growth fear from last quarter's watch list was answered cleanly — Q3 adjusted cruise costs ex-fuel/ALBD (cc) came in at +5.5% YoY, 150bps better than the +7.0% June guide, and FY cost-ex-fuel guidance was lowered to +3.3% from +3.6%.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2025

$1.43

Revenue

Q2 FY2025

$8.15B

+3.3% YoY

Free cash flow

Q2 FY2025

$0.73B

Operating margin

Q2 FY2025

27.8%

Key financials

Q2 FY2025

Metric	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$8.15B	+3.3%	$6.33B	+28.8%
EPS	$1.43	—	$0.35	+308.6%
Operating margin	27.8%	—	14.8%	+1308bps
Free cash flow	$0.73B	—	$1.54B	-52.3%

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	Q2 FY2025	Approx. $1.30	$1.43	+$0.13 above guide	Beat
Adjusted EBITDA	Q2 FY2025	Approx. $2.87 billion	$2.993 billion	+$0.123 billion above guide	Beat
Net yields YoY growth (constant currency)	Q2 FY2025	Approx. 3.5%	4.6%	+1.1pts above guide	Beat
Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD YoY growth (constant currency)	Q2 FY2025	Approx. 7.0%	Data not disclosed in actuals	Unable to quantify	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Adjusted EBITDA YoY growth	FY 2025	Up 15%	—
ALBDs	FY 2025	96.5 million	—
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	Q4 FY2025	Approx. $0.23	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	FY 2025	Approx. $1.97	Approx. $2.14	+$0.17	Raised
Net yields YoY growth (constant currency)	FY 2025	Approx. 5.0%	Approx. 5.3%	+0.3pts	Raised
Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD YoY growth (constant currency)	FY 2025	Approx. 3.6%	Approx. 3.3%	-0.3pts	Lowered
Adjusted net income YoY growth	FY 2025	Up over 40%	Up nearly 55%	+~15pts (from >40% to ~55%)	Raised
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	Approx. $6.9 billion	Approx. $7.05 billion	+$0.15 billion	Raised

Segment performance

Q2 FY2025

Segment	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Passenger ticket revenue	$5.43B	+3.6%
Onboard and other revenue	$2.723B	+2.5%

Platform metrics

Q2 FY2025

Segment	Q2 FY2025
Net yields (constant currency)	$249.11 per ALBD
Net yields YoY growth (constant currency)	4.6%
Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD (constant currency)	$109.65 per ALBD
Customer deposits	$7.1 billion
Occupancy percentage	112%

Profitability

Q2 FY2025

Segment	Q2 FY2025
Adjusted EBITDA	$2.993 billion
Adjusted ROIC (trailing 12-months)	13%
Net debt to adjusted EBITDA	3.6x

Management tone

No transcript was available for this filing; tone analysis is constrained to the press release. The release language is meaningfully more forward-leaning than Q2's. Last quarter management led with 2026 being "in line with 2025 record at historical high prices." This quarter they extend the disclosure two ways: nearly half of 2026 is now booked, and 2027 already set Q3 record booking volumes — pulling 2027 into the conversation 15+ months before most operators would. Pairing that with the third consecutive guide raise and a $235M improvement vs. June, the press release reads as a company comfortable signaling that demand visibility extends well beyond the SEA Change framework they just outgrew.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q3 net yield landing vs. the +3.5% YoY guide — Net yields landed at +4.6% YoY (constant currency), 110bps above guide. The implied H2 +4% trajectory was conservative; Q4 is guided at +4.3%, so the beat-and-raise pattern is intact. Status: Resolved positively

Q3 cost ex-fuel growth vs. +7.0% guide — Q3 adjusted cruise costs ex-fuel/ALBD came in at +5.5% YoY (constant currency), 150bps better than the +7.0% June guide. The FY guide reinforces the signal: cost-ex-fuel growth lowered to ~3.3% from ~3.6%, and Q4 guided at +3.2%. Cost discipline beat plan. Status: Resolved positively

What replaces the SEA Change framework — No successor framework was disclosed in this release. ROIC ticked to 13% TTM from 12.5%+, but management has not introduced new long-term ROIC, leverage, or capital-return targets. Status: Continue monitoring

2026 booking curve commentary — Strengthened materially. Last quarter: "in line with 2025 record at historical high prices." This quarter: "nearly half of 2026 booked, in line with 2025 record at the same time last year, but now at historical high prices (in constant currency)." Pricing posture explicitly held while booked share extended. 2027 added with record Q3 booking volumes. Status: Resolved positively

Customer deposits trajectory — $7.1B vs. $8.5B in Q2 — a $1.4B sequential decline. Q3 is structurally a cash-out quarter as summer sailings are recognized, so the level alone is not a negative signal, but the release did not pair the number with explicit forward-booking color the way Q2 did. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Q4 adjusted EPS vs. ~$0.23 guide and FY landing vs. ~$2.14 — three straight raises sets the bar that Q4 either beats or the FY closes meaningfully above the implied $0.23 to clear $2.14. Anything that lands the FY exactly at $2.14 with no beat would break the cadence.

FY2026 first guide on the Q4 call — with nearly half of 2026 booked at record prices, the Q4 call will produce the first formal 2026 guide. Watch the EBITDA growth rate vs. the FY2025 +15% run-rate; sub-10% would signal pricing power moderating.

Successor to SEA Change framework — 13% ROIC and FY2025 guide raises mean the absence of a new long-term framework on the Q4 call becomes a louder negative signal each quarter. This is the single most likely investor-day-style disclosure into year-end.

Net debt / adjusted EBITDA progression from 3.6x — deleveraging pace into year-end determines whether 2026 sets up for capital return resumption (buyback or dividend). Watch whether the Q4 release pairs leverage commentary with capital-return language for the first time since 2019.

2027 booking-curve language stickiness — introducing 2027 record bookings in a Q3 release is unusual; whether Q4 sustains or expands that disclosure will signal how durable management thinks the demand environment is.

Sources

Carnival Corporation Q3 FY2025 earnings release (8-K), filed 2025-09-29 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000081509725000082/a20253qearningsrelease8-k.htm
Carnival Corporation Q2 FY2025 earnings release (8-K), filed 2025-06-24 — used for prior-guide reference points.

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