CCL · Q2 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Carnival Corporation

Reported June 23, 2026

30-second summary

Carnival beat its Q2 guide on every line — adjusted EPS $0.41 vs $0.34 guided (+20.6%), EBITDA $1.582B vs $1.48B guided, adjusted net income $569M vs $470M guided (+21.1%) — yet revenue missed consensus by 0.4% at $6.66B and the FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guide was cut $80M to $7.11B while FY EPS moved only $0.01 to $2.22. The Q3 setup is the bigger signal: net yields guided to +1.3% YoY (current dollars) and +1.2% constant currency on top of a record prior-year base, while cost growth runs +2.8% — a negative yield/cost spread in the seasonally biggest quarter. The Q2 beat is real; the H2 outlook is softer than the Q1 raise implied.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$0.41

+20.6% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$6.66B

+5.3% YoY

-0.4% vs est.

Free cash flow

Q2 FY2026

$1.75B

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

12.8%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$6.66B	$6.33B	+5.3%	$6.20B	+7.5%
EPS	$0.41	$0.35	+17.1%	$0.20	+105.0%
Operating margin	12.8%	14.8%	-196bps	9.8%	+295bps
Free cash flow	$1.75B	$1.54B	+13.7%	$0.70B	+151.6%

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	Q2 FY2026	$0.34	$0.41	+$0.07 above guide	Beat
Adjusted EBITDA	Q2 FY2026	$1.48 billion	$1.582 billion	+$0.10 billion above guide	Beat
Adjusted net income	Q2 FY2026	$470 million	$537 million	+$67 million above guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Capacity growth	FY 2026	1.0%	—
Fuel expense impact on guidance	FY 2026	Less than $0.01 per share	—
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	Q3 FY2026	$1.35	—
Net yields YoY growth	Q3 FY2026	Approx. 1.3% (current dollars); Approx. 1.2% (constant currency)	—
Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD YoY growth	Q3 FY2026	Approx. 2.8% (current dollars and constant currency)	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2026	$7.19 billion	$7.11 billion	-$0.08 billion	Lowered
Net yields YoY growth	FY 2026	Approx. 2.75% (constant currency)	Approx. 1.75% (constant currency); 2.25% (after adjustments); 3.2% (current dollars)	Lower in constant currency (-1.0pts), higher in current dollars (+0.45pts after adjustments)	Raised
Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD YoY growth	FY 2026	Approx. 3.1% (constant currency)	Approx. 2.4% (constant currency); 1.3% (after adjustments); 3.7% (current dollars)	Lower in constant currency (-0.7pts), lower after adjustments (-1.8pts), higher in current dollars (+0.6pts)	Raised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP) ($2.22), Adjusted net income ($3,070 million)

Segment performance

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Passenger ticket revenue	$4.273B	$4.104B	+4.1%
Onboard and other revenue	$2.39B	$2.224B	+7.5%

Platform metrics

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Available Lower Berth Days (ALBDs)	24.7 million	24.2 million	—
Occupancy percentage	104%	104%	—
Net yields per ALBD	$208.69	—	—
Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD	$119.60	—	—
Customer deposits	$9.0 billion	$8.5 billion (all-time high)	—
Fuel consumption per ALBD improvement	5.6% improvement	—	—
Booked position for remainder of 2026	93% booked	—	—

Profitability

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Adjusted EBITDA	$1.582 billion	$1.508 billion	—

Management tone

No transcript was available for this quarter; tone observations are limited to the press release.

Customer optimization (Q2 FY2025) → SEA Change targets hit early (Q3 FY2025) → Investment grade and dividend reinstated (Q4 FY2025) → Propel + $2.5B buyback (Q1 FY2026) → H2 normalization caveat (Q2 FY2026)

The release introduces a new caveat that did not feature in the Q1 prepared remarks: "Recent booking trends already suggest that we are beginning to see a reversal of these headwinds." That sentence implies there were headwinds in the booking curve in recent months — not previously acknowledged. Combined with the FY net yield cut from +2.75% to +1.75% constant FX and the explicit reference to "summer 2025 close-in decision," this is the first quarter in the streak where management is bridging from a softer-than-expected period rather than from operational outperformance.

The "record net yields in the second half of 2026" language is doing significant work. The headline FY net yield guide was cut, but the H2 framing remains positive because the comparison is against record prior-year yields. This is the first quarter in the coverage cycle where the gap between management's narrative ("record net yields in the second half," "demand for 2027 and beyond remains strong") and the actual guide direction is wide enough to flag — three prior quarters in a row, the narrative and the math pointed the same way.

The expanded guidance presentation — three different bases for both yields and costs (current dollars, constant currency, "after adjustments") — is itself a tonal shift. Previously a single constant-currency figure was the headline. Layering loyalty program accounting and summer 2025 close-in adjustments on top suggests management is anticipating questions about the H2 setup and front-loading the bridges.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q2 FY2026 net yield landing at or above +2.0% guide — Q2 net yields came in at +2.2% constant currency, modestly above the ~+2.0% guide.

Resolved positively

Buyback execution post April 17 — Press release discloses over $450M repurchased to date under the current program, headlined as "Accelerates shareholder returns, surpassing $450 million in stock repurchases." Status: Resolved.

Fuel sensitivity into Q2 — Net impact of fuel and currency on the June guidance versus prior guidance was less than $0.01 per share — effectively neutral. Fuel consumption per ALBD improved 5.6%, slightly better than Q1's 4.7% improvement. The operational lever is intact and the fuel-price headwind appears contained.

Resolved positively

Propel framework first checkpoint — The press release does not provide interim ROIC or EPS markers against the 2029 targets.

Not resolved

DLC unification close and index inclusion — Press release confirms completion of the unification under a single corporate entity with legal incorporation shifted to Bermuda. Index-inclusion read-through not addressed. Status: Partially resolved.

Customer deposit trajectory into peak wave-season exit — Customer deposits hit $9.0B, a new all-time record, up roughly 13% from Q1's $7.92B and ~5% above Q2 FY2025's $8.5B record. The booking strength is durable.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Q3 net yields delivering at or above +1.2% constant FX: the lowest yield growth quarter in the current coverage cycle by guide. A miss here would compound the FY guide cut and undermine the "record H2 net yields" narrative.

H2 EBITDA bridge: with FY EBITDA cut $80M while Q2 beat by $102M, the implied H2 cut is ~$180M. Watch whether Q3 lands at the $2.88B guide or whether further FY revisions are needed.

Buyback pace from here: with >$450M repurchased to date, watch whether the Q3 release provides updated authorization-to-date spend and quarterly pace.

The "reversal of headwinds" claim: management cited recent booking trends suggesting reversal. Watch for a quantified booking-curve datapoint on the Q3 call, or any change in 2026 booked position above the current 93%.

Post-unification index inclusion: with the DLC collapse complete and legal incorporation now in Bermuda, watch for timing of any index-inclusion read-through and any change to share count.

Currency vs. constant-currency presentation: the expanded multi-base guidance suggests pressure to explain the H2 setup. Watch whether the Q3 release simplifies back to a single base or layers additional adjustments.

Sources

Carnival Corporation Q2 FY2026 earnings press release (8-K), filed 2026-06-23. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000081509726000086/a20262qearningsrelease8-k.htm
Carnival Corporation Q1 FY2026 earnings press release (8-K), filed 2026-03-27 — prior-period guidance baseline.

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