CCL · Q4 2025 Earnings

Neutral

Carnival Corporation

Reported December 19, 2025

30-second summary

SENTIMENT: Constructive Carnival closed FY2025 at $26.6B revenue (+6.4%) and $2.25 adjusted EPS — both records — and reinstated its quarterly dividend at $0.15/share (record date Feb 13, 2026; payment Feb 27, 2026), the first since the pandemic. Net debt / adjusted EBITDA fell to 3.4x and Fitch moved CCL to investment grade. Q4 itself was a clean beat against the September guide management set at Q3: adjusted EPS $0.34, adjusted net income $454M (beat by >$150M), adjusted EBITDA a record $1.5B with margins up nearly 300bps YoY, net yields +5.4% constant FX (1.1pts above guide), and adjusted cruise costs ex-fuel/ALBD +0.5% constant FX (2.7pts better than guide). Forward, management guides FY2026 adjusted net income to ~$3.45B (+~12%) on less than 1% capacity growth and ROIC >13.5%; Q1 is the softest point of the year (yields +1.6%, costs +5.9%) with the yield/cost spread improving through the year. The Boards also proposed unifying the DLC structure into a single NYSE-listed Carnival Corporation, redomiciled to Bermuda, with shareholder votes in April 2026 and close targeted for Q2 2026.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$0.34

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$6.33B

+6.6% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

26.8%

Free cash flow

Q4 FY2025

$0.01B

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

11.6%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$6.33B	+6.6%	$8.15B	-22.4%
EPS	$0.34	—	$1.43	-76.2%
Gross margin	26.8%	—	—	—
Operating margin	11.6%	—	27.8%	-1619bps
Free cash flow	$0.01B	—	$0.73B	-98.4%

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted earnings per share (non-GAAP)	Q4 FY2025	$1.30	$0.34	-$0.96 below guide	Beat
Adjusted net income	Q4 FY2025	$1,800 million	$422 million	-$1,378 million below guide	Missed
Adjusted EBITDA	Q4 FY2025	$2.87 billion	$1.62 billion	-$1.25 billion below guide	Missed
Net yields YoY growth (constant currency)	Q4 FY2025	up approximately 3.5% vs prior year	up approximately 3.5% vs prior year	in-line	Met
Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD YoY growth (constant currency)	Q4 FY2025	up approximately 7.0% vs prior year	up approximately 7.0% vs prior year	in-line	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Adjusted earnings per share (non-GAAP)	Q1 FY2026	$0.17	—
Net yields YoY growth (constant currency)	Q1 FY2026	up approximately 1.6% vs prior year	approximately +1.6%
Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD YoY growth (constant currency)	Q1 FY2026	up approximately 5.9% vs prior year	approximately +5.9%
Adjusted EBITDA	Q1 FY2026	$1.24 billion	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted earnings per share (non-GAAP)	FY 2025	$1.97	$2.25	+$0.28 (+14.2%)	Raised
Adjusted net income	FY 2025	$2,690 million (up over 40% vs prior year)	$3,100+ million (record levels)	+$410+ million	Raised
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	$6.9 billion (up over 10% vs prior year)	$7.5+ billion (record levels)	+$0.6 billion	Raised

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Passenger ticket revenue	$4.053B	+5.2%
Onboard and other revenue	$2.277B	+9.3%

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Net yields (constant currency)	$203.52 per ALBD
Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD (constant currency)	$121.83 per ALBD
Available Lower Berth Days (ALBDs)	24.1 million
Occupancy percentage	102%
Customer deposits	$7.2 billion

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Adjusted EBITDA margin	23.3%
Adjusted ROIC	13.0%+

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Net debt to adjusted EBITDA	3.4x

Management tone

No transcript was available for this quarter; tone analysis is limited to the press release.

The release language is the most confident of the year. Weinstein frames 2025 as "truly phenomenal," cites the investment-grade milestone and dividend reinstatement as evidence of "confidence in our long-term future," and describes 2026 as "shaping up to surpass even these remarkable results" with ROIC "closing in on our 20-year high." Booking commentary is unambiguously positive: highest booked occupancy for the upcoming year, ~two-thirds booked at higher constant-currency prices, historical high prices in both North America and Europe, record booking volumes over the past three months for 2026/2027 sailings, and Black Friday/Cyber Monday volumes outpacing prior year's robust levels.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q3 cost guide delivery and FY cost revision risk — Resolved positively. Q4 actual adjusted cruise costs ex-fuel/ALBD came in at +0.5% constant FX, 2.7pts better than the September guide. Forward, Q1 FY2026 cost growth steps up to +5.9% YoY on expense timing, but the FY2026 guide of +3.25% (or +2.5% normalized) keeps cost discipline intact.

2026 booked position commentary — Confirmed positive. Two-thirds booked for 2026 at historical high constant-currency prices in both North America and Europe; record booking volumes over the past three months; Black Friday/Cyber Monday outpaced prior year. FY2026 net yield guide of +2.5% (+3.0% normalized) quantifies this.

Resolved positively

Net yield trajectory into 2H — Q4 delivered +5.4% constant FX, beating the September guide. FY2025 net yields set a record. Forward, Q1 FY2026 decelerates to +1.6% (+2.4% normalized) and FY2026 to +2.5% (+3.0% normalized). Status: Resolved positively for 2H 2025; deceleration into 2026 is real but management is normalizing for one-time items.

Customer deposit balance — $7.2B at Q4, a new Q4 record.

Resolved positively

Capital return signal — Resolved. Quarterly dividend reinstated at $0.15/share (annualized run-rate ~$840M), the first since the pandemic.

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 FY2026 net yield landing at or above +1.6% guide: with yields guided to decelerate from +5.4% in Q4 to +1.6% in Q1, watch for normalized print (+2.4% ex-Arabian Gulf redeployment) and any read-through on 2026 wave season conversion.

Q1 cost growth at +5.9% per ALBD: the highest cost-growth quarter of FY2026 by guide; an in-line or better print supports the +3.25% FY cost guide.

DLC unification milestones: February shareholder materials, April shareholder votes, Q2 2026 close. Watch for index-inclusion estimates and any UK court conditions.

Customer deposit balance into wave season: Q1 is the seasonal deposit-build peak; a step-up above the Q4 record of $7.2B would corroborate the "outpacing prior year" booking narrative.

Capital allocation cadence: with the dividend reinstated and leverage at investment-grade 3.4x, watch for any signal on buyback authorization or dividend trajectory once the unification closes.

Sources

Carnival Corporation Q4 FY2025 earnings press release (8-K), filed 2025-12-19. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000162828025058106/a20254qearningsrelease8-k.htm

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