Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

CF · Q4 2025 Earnings

CF Industries

Reported February 18, 2026

30-second summary

Q4 revenue rose 23% YoY to $1.87B with adjusted EBITDA of $821M, capping a FY2025 of $7.08B revenue (+19%), $2.89B EBITDA, $1.79B FCF, and 97% capacity utilization. The print is fine — the guide is the story: FY2026 gross ammonia production drops to ~9.5M tons from the ~10M baseline because Yazoo City stays offline until Q4 2026 at the earliest, CF-funded capex jumps to ~$950M from $725M, and management explicitly flagged a "challenging" H1 2026 on the supply side. The 2030 ~$3B EBITDA / ~$2B FCF anchors are reaffirmed, but the path now has a visible 2026 air pocket the prior bull narrative didn't carry.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$2.59

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$1.87B

+22.8% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

40.9%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$1.87B	+22.8%	$1.66B	+12.8%
EPS	$2.59	—	$2.19	+18.3%
Gross margin	40.9%	—	38.1%	+280bps

Guidance

Guidance reaffirmed on 2030 mid-cycle targets; FY2026 capex raised ~31% to $950M (CF-funded) amid elevated investment cycle, offset by FY2026 ammonia production guidance lowered ~5% to 9.5M tons due to Yazoo City Complex outage.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	—	$2,893M	in-line	Met
Free Cash Flow	FY 2025	—	$1,789M	in-line	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Gross Ammonia Production	FY 2026	~9.5 million tons (FY2026 guidance)	—
CF Capital Expenditures	FY 2026	~$950M (FY2026 guidance, excluding JV partner funding)	—
Total Capital Expenditures	FY 2026	~$1.3 billion (FY2026)	—

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Mid-Cycle Adjusted EBITDA (2030 target) (~$3,000 million), Mid-Cycle Free Cash Flow (2030 target) (~$2,000 million)

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Adjusted EBITDA	$821M
FY 2025 Adjusted EBITDA	$2,893M
FY 2025 Free Cash Flow	$1,789M
FY 2025 Capacity Utilization	97%
FY 2025 FCF to Adjusted EBITDA Conversion	62%
Capital Returned to Shareholders	$1,700M
FY 2025 Recordable Incident Rate	0.26
2026E Gross Ammonia Production	9.5 million tons

Management tone

Q1-2025 → Q2-2025 → Q3-2025 → Q4-2025: CCS startup → CCS operating + structural tightening → 2030 horizon + buyback aggression → 2026 air pocket emerges, low-carbon premium hardens.

The structural-tightness thesis went from forecast to confirmed-against-management's-own-prior-expectations. For 12-18 months CF had expected the global nitrogen market to be more balanced by now. Anchor from prepared remarks: "the global nitrogen market remains tighter than expected. New capacity has been delayed, global production has not maintained historical levels, and demand continues to grow." This is management explicitly conceding that even their internal supply outlook proved too optimistic on the supply side — which is bullish for pricing but tonally more cautious than the Q3 "completely inelastic" demand framing. The narrative has shifted from "demand is unbreakable" to "supply is structurally broken."

Low-carbon ammonia migrated from speculative future revenue (Q1-Q2) to a separate disclosed premium pricing event with contracted 2026 volumes (Q4). The anchor management gave on the call: "we did not model in any type of premium from Bluepoint or even in our Donaldsonville production with related to low carbon product. So all that is upside to our internal rate of returns on that... We have contracts in place for 2026 in demand for more." This is a sharper claim than Q3's withdrawn ">$100M annual" CCS figure — management is now saying the original 2030 anchors excluded the premium entirely, and the 2026 contracted book is the first proof point. If credible, it partially repairs the Q3 disclosure gap on CCS unit economics.

CBAM and carbon pricing escalated from "policy-dependent uncertainty" to "the train that has left the station." Anchor: "carbon pricing is the train that has left the station, I believe... we're even seeing that now across the globe with industrial customers and agricultural customers desiring low-carbon products." The shift signals management treats regulatory carbon pricing as effectively irreversible globally — which de-risks Blue Point's blue-ammonia economics independent of any single jurisdiction's policy path.

The electrolyzer impairment is a quiet but real strategic concession. Anchor: "We recorded a $51 million impairment charge related to the electrolyzer pilot project at the Donaldsonville complex... We made the decision not to continue to invest in this pilot project given its return profile." Through 2024 green hydrogen via electrolysis was framed as part of the decarbonization optionality stack; this quarter it's gone. The path to low-carbon ammonia is now exclusively CCS+SMR (Donaldsonville) and ATR+CCS (Blue Point). Narrower technology set, lower R&D burn, but less optionality if blue-ammonia premiums compress.

Blue Point capex profile shifted from "evenly distributed" to "back-loaded with updated cash visibility." Management's framing on the call: "as you get closer and get into it... you get a better idea of not only what the costs are, which haven't changed here, but also the timing of when that cost is going to occur." The "costs haven't changed" line is the important one — the 2026 capex jump is timing, not budget creep, per management. Worth verifying as 2027-2028 guidance arrives.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Structural nitrogen market tightness persisting longer than anticipatedLow-carbon ammonia monetization already underway with premium pricing locked inYazoo City incident creating near-term EBITDA headwind but manageable via insuranceBluepoint progressing on schedule toward 2029 startup with organic expansion optionalityStrong free cash flow conversion enabling growth investment and shareholder returns simultaneouslyGlobal supply constraints (Iran, Trinidad, Europe) supporting price floor above cost curve

Risks management surfaced:

Yazoo City ammonium nitrate plant offline until Q4 2026 at earliest, reducing gross ammonia production to 9.5M tonsGeopolitical concerns over Middle East looming over market despite current strengthPotential China urea export surge if new capacity brought online at higher rates than forecastedFarmer affordability constraints if nitrogen prices remain elevated through planting seasonBrazil plant recommissioning timeline and efficiency uncertain due to age and logistics challenges

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Withdrawn Donaldsonville CCS >$100M annual figure resurfacing with realized 2025 economics — The specific 2025 CCS contribution figure was not restored in the Q4 release. Instead management explicitly stated low-carbon premiums were never modeled in base-case Bluepoint or Donaldsonville returns, and that 2026 contracted volumes are locked in at premiums. This reframes the Q3 disclosure withdrawal as a deliberate accounting choice (premiums are upside, not base case) rather than an underperformance signal — but the actual 2025 dollar contribution is still not separately disclosed.

Continue monitoring

Q4 buyback dollars vs $2.4B authorization — FY2025 total capital returned to shareholders was $1.7B; the Q4-specific buyback figure isn't broken out in the press release excerpt. The full-year number is large enough to support the prior "aggressive" rhetoric but cannot be verified at quarterly granularity from the release alone.

Continue monitoring

FY2025 capex landing at $725M or creeping further — The release doesn't restate the FY2025 actual capex figure; the FY2026 guide of ~$950M CF-funded sits ~31% above the Q3-revised FY2025 ~$725M baseline. The capex step-up is now explicit, with management attributing it to Blue Point timing and ongoing base-business spend. Whether 2025 actual capex landed at $725M or drifted higher is not disclosed in the release.

Continue monitoring

Q4 gross margin recovery from Q3's 180bps compression — Resolved cleanly. Q4 gross margin was 40.9% versus Q3's 38.1%, a +280bps sequential recovery, consistent with the ag-weighted Q4 order book and supportive of management's pricing thesis.

Resolved positively

2030 mid-cycle target sensitivities — Both ~$3B EBITDA and ~$2B FCF 2030 anchors were reaffirmed verbatim. No qualitative softening on Blue Point timing (still 2029 startup), CCS contribution mix, or 45Q assumptions. The targets continue to do the heavy lifting in the long-term bull case.

Resolved positively

Yazoo City operational follow-up — Resolved, negatively. Yazoo City complex not expected to resume production until Q4 2026 "at the earliest," driving FY2026 ammonia production guide down to ~9.5M tons from a ~10M baseline. Management expects to receive business-interruption insurance proceeds during 2026. The timing is materially worse than the vague Q3 framing implied.

Resolved negatively

What to watch into next quarter

Realized FY2026 ammonia production tracking versus the 9.5M ton guide — any further slippage on Yazoo City restart from Q4 2026 would compress 2026 EBITDA meaningfully; watch Q1 commentary on insurance proceed timing and recovery economics.

Whether the 2026 low-carbon ammonia premium gets quantified per ton — management claims contracts are signed for 2026 at premium pricing with demand for more. The next print should disclose either a $/ton premium, contracted volume, or aggregate EBITDA contribution. Continued silence on units would suggest the premium is smaller than the tone implies.

H1 2026 pricing realization versus the "challenging on supply" framing — management characterized first-half 2026 as challenging on the supply side despite high demand. Watch whether Q1 gross margin holds above the 38.5% FY2025 average or compresses on logistics/operational friction.

Capex cadence within the $1.3B/$950M FY2026 envelope — second consecutive raise to base-business capex would invalidate the "timing, not scope" framing management gave on Blue Point.

Buyback pace given the elevated 2026 capex year — with FY2026 CF capex stepping up ~$225M and Yazoo City pressuring near-term EBITDA, the question is whether management throttles buybacks below the FY2025 deployment rate or holds the line on the "non-believers" stance.

Electrolyzer impairment as a leading indicator — watch whether any other early-stage decarbonization investments get written down, which would further narrow the technology stack to CCS-only and tighten the dependence on 45Q credit persistence.

Sources

CF Industries Q4-2025 press release (SEC EX-99.1): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000110465926017110/tm266764d1_ex99-1.htm
CF Industries Q3-2025 prior-quarter brief (Tapebrief)
CF Industries Q2-2025 prior-quarter brief (Tapebrief)

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