CHRW · Q2 2026 Earnings

Bullish

C.H. Robinson

Reported July 29, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: Revenue jumped 19.3% YoY to $4.93B, non-GAAP EPS printed $1.61, and consolidated adjusted operating margin ex-restructuring reached 35.7%, with management declaring mid-cycle operating margin targets achieved at the segment level in both NAST (40.9% adjusted operating margin ex-restructuring) and Global Forwarding (33.4%) — in what management still calls the trough of the demand cycle. Global Forwarding revenue inflected positive at +12.4% YoY after four quarters of decline, and NAST revenue grew 23.1%. The subtle counter-signal: management quietly withdrew the entire detailed FY2026 cost architecture — personnel, SG&A, D&A, and the double-digit productivity commitment — and lowered the capex band $10M across the range, leaving investors with less forward visibility precisely as the numbers get better.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$1.61

+6.6% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$4.93B

+19.3% YoY

+14.2% vs est.

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

5.2%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$4.93B	$4.14B	+19.3%	$4.01B	+23.0%
EPS	$1.61	$1.29	+24.8%	$1.35	+19.3%
Operating margin	5.2%	5.2%	+0bps	4.4%	+80bps

Guidance

Strong Q2 FY2026 beat on revenue and EPS with margin targets achieved early; CapEx guidance narrowed lower while detailed FY2026 cost guidance withdrawn.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q2 FY2026	—	$4.934B	+14.2% above consensus estimate ($4.32B); +19.3% YoY growth	Beat
Earnings Per Share (Non-GAAP)	Q2 FY2026	—	$1.61	+6.6% above consensus estimate ($1.51); GAAP EPS $1.56	Beat
Operating Margin (Adjusted, excluding Restructuring)	Q2 FY2026	—	35.7%	Mid-cycle operating margin targets achieved during freight market trough	Beat

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Capital Expenditures	FY 2026	$75 million to $85 million	$65 million to $75 million	-$10M at high end (lowered from $85M to $75M); -$10M at low end (lowered from $75M to $65M)	Lowered
Personnel Expenses	FY 2026	$1.25 billion to $1.35 billion	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn
SG&A Expenses	FY 2026	$540 million to $590 million	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn
Depreciation and Amortization	FY 2026	$95 million to $105 million	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn
Productivity Improvements	FY 2026	Double-digit productivity improvements in both NAST and global forwarding in 2026	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Effective Tax Rate (18% to 20%)

Segment KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
NAST	$3.593B	$2.918B	+23.1%
Global Forwarding	$0.897B	$0.798B	+12.4%

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Adjusted Operating Margin	34.7%	31.1%	—
Adjusted Operating Margin - Excluding Restructuring	35.7%	—	—
NAST Volume Growth YoY	1.5%	—	—
NAST Market Outgrowth vs Cass Index	13th consecutive quarter	—	—
Adjusted Gross Profit	$738.0M	$693.2 million	—
Income from Operations Growth YoY	18.4%	—	—
Global Forwarding Adjusted Operating Margin	32.3%	27.4%	—
Cash Returned to Shareholders	$301.3M	—	—

Management tone

No transcript was available for this brief; the observations below are limited to language that appears directly in the Q2 2026 press release.

Mid-cycle targets declared achieved at the segment level, in the trough. The press release states: "Mid-cycle operating margin targets achieved while the freight market is still in the trough of the demand cycle" and, in the CEO commentary, "we hit our mid-cycle operating margin targets in both NAST and Global Forwarding in the second quarter of 2026." This is a step-change in framing versus prior quarters that relied on innings-based language, and it is the anchor claim of the release.

Confidence language in place of a specific forward productivity number. With the double-digit FY2026 productivity commitment absent from this quarter's disclosure, the release substitutes "We're highly confident in our ability to continue executing on all of our strategic initiatives" and "The strategies that our team is executing are built to be effective in any market environment." The release does quantify productivity delivered: "evergreen productivity improvements of over 60% since the end of 2022 in both NAST and Global Forwarding" and "year-over-year productivity improvements of more than 15%" in Global Forwarding in the quarter.

Volume outgrowth framed as a streak. The release describes NAST volume as "the 13th consecutive quarter of market outgrowth," with NAST volume up ~1.5% against a 3.3% decline in the Cass Freight Shipment Index.

"Secular earnings growth" as the structural claim. The release states the company "continues to deliver secular earnings growth driven by market share gains, disciplined revenue management and evergreen productivity improvements fueled by its Lean AI strategy." This is the strongest structural framing in the document and anchors the story to a compounder frame.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

17% FY truckload spot rate market assumption holding through Q2 — Not disclosed in the press release. What we can infer: Truckload AGP was -1.4% YoY, meaningfully weaker than the rest of the NAST book, though the release also notes truckload linehaul cost per mile increased 29.0% vs. 25.5% for the customer rate — implying a squeeze on the cost side even as pricing moved higher. The absence of a public revision to the market assumption is itself a data point.

Continue monitoring

NAST AGP margin behavior if cost-per-mile inflation extends — NAST AGP was $469.4M on $3.59B revenue, and management disclosed a 3.5-point gap between customer rate (+25.5%) and cost per mile (+29.0%) offset by a 2.0% increase in truckload AGP per mile. The clean AI-pricing-engine test needs additional segment-level cost-per-mile decomposition beyond what the release provides.

Not resolved

Q2 sequential volume against management's flagged 4.5% CAS 10-year seasonal baseline — NAST volume grew 1.5% YoY and outgrew Cass for the 13th consecutive quarter, but the sequential-versus-4.5% comparison is not addressable from press-release data alone. What the print does show is that outgrowth held even as revenue re-accelerated — the volume-discipline strategy did not surrender the share-gain streak.

Continue monitoring

Whether the dropped "H2 over-indexed" productivity qualifier reflects early arrival or a quiet hedge — Resolved, but not in the direction bulls would have hoped. The entire double-digit productivity commitment came off the print this quarter. The 35.7% consolidated margin print suggests productivity is arriving, but management removed the falsifiable target rather than deliver on it or update it.

Resolved negatively

Global Forwarding sequential — needs another step down or flat print — The trajectory continued dramatically better than required. Global Forwarding revenue turned positive at +12.4% YoY, and segment adjusted operating margin ex-restructuring was 33.4% — the number management cited in declaring the segment mid-cycle target achieved. The "first inning Lean AI" thesis in Global Forwarding just got its cleanest single-quarter validation.

Resolved positively

Any quantification of agentic AI output metrics — Partially disclosed. Management cited "evergreen productivity improvements of over 60% since the end of 2022 in both NAST and Global Forwarding" and "year-over-year productivity improvements of more than 15%" in Global Forwarding in the quarter, but automation rate, loads-per-employee, and quote-to-cash cycle time remain absent, and the double-digit forward productivity commitment has been withdrawn.

Resolved negatively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether management restores any of the withdrawn FY2026 cost or productivity guides — a Q3 print with continued margin strength but no return of granular cost visibility would confirm that the de-guidance is structural, not temporary

NAST revenue growth deceleration from the +23.1% base — a print above ~15% YoY would demonstrate the AI-pricing thesis compounds through a normalizing tape

Truckload segment specifically — the -1.4% AGP print is the outlier in a book that inflected across nearly every other service line; another quarter of Truckload AGP decline in a book otherwise accelerating would reopen questions about volume discipline vs. share loss, particularly given the cost-per-mile inflation flagged in the release

Global Forwarding follow-through — a single +12.4% revenue print after four quarters of decline is a shape change; two consecutive quarters of positive growth with the 33.4% segment margin ex-restructuring holding would confirm the thesis rather than mark a base effect

Capex spend against the newly lowered $65M–$75M band — the cut partially reverses the Q4 step-up explicitly framed as funding AI infrastructure; whether spend tracks toward the low or high end is the tell on whether the productivity build-out is being throttled

Whether management introduces a peak-cycle margin anchor — with segment mid-cycle targets now declared achieved, the next quarter's forward-looking construct will define how investors size the peak-cycle margin opportunity

Sources

C.H. Robinson Q2 2026 Earnings Release, SEC Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed July 29, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1043277/000104327726000027/ex991earningsreleaseq20630.htm

Get the next brief, free.

We publish analyst-grade earnings briefs the same day or morning after every call — headline numbers, segment KPIs, Q&A highlights, and tone analysis. Free during beta.

This is not investment advice.