tapebrief

CME · Q2 2025 Earnings

Bullish

CME Group

Reported July 23, 2025

30-second summary

Volume hit an all-time high of 30.2M average daily contracts (+16% YoY) across all six asset classes, pushing revenue to $1.69B (+10.4% YoY) and adjusted EPS to a record $2.96 (+16%). Management is framing tariffs, geopolitical risk, and record sovereign debt not as cyclical noise but as a structural demand engine — and the numbers, particularly +57% new retail traders and record international ADV, back the narrative. The NASDAQ index license extension through 2039 removes the single largest overhang on the equity-index franchise.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2025

$2.96

Revenue

Q2 FY2025

$1.69B

+10.4% YoY

Operating margin

Q2 FY2025

66.7%

Key financials

Q2 FY2025
MetricQ2 FY2025YoY
Revenue$1.69B+10.4%
EPS$2.96—
Operating margin66.7%—

Guidance

Prior quarter data unavailable — comparison not possible.

Segment performance

Q2 FY2025
SegmentQ2 FY2025YoY
Clearing and transaction fees$1.388B+11.1%
Market data and information services$0.198B+13.3%
Other$0.106B-1.6%

Capital & returns

Q2 FY2025
SegmentQ2 FY2025
Total debt$3.4 billion

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2025
SegmentQ2 FY2025
Average Daily Volume (ADV)30.2 million contracts
ADV growth year-over-year16%
Average Rate Per Contract (RPC)$0.690
CME Globex ADV28.1 million contracts
Micros ADV4.1 million contracts
New retail traders growth+57% year-over-year
Operating margin66.7%

Management tone

The call's defining shift is that volatility is no longer something CME benefits from — it is something clients now structurally need CME to absorb. The hedging quote: "In an environment of heightened headline risk and macro uncertainties, clients are increasingly choosing the transparency and capital efficiency of our essentially cleared benchmark products." That reframing turns a cyclical story into a secular one and explains why management is willing to anchor growth to retail expansion and international penetration rather than rate volatility.

Retail moved from a tertiary theme to a headline metric. Management led with "over 90,000 new retail traders participated in our markets for the first time, a 56% increase versus the same period last year" and produced supporting cross-sell data (micro Bitcoin +94%, micro Ether +212%, retail RPC up 7% to $0.349). The level of granularity — broker-channel partnerships, 100+ client events, five consecutive quarters of double-digit acquisition — signals that retail has graduated from experiment to operating priority.

The NASDAQ license extension is the most quietly important disclosure on the call. "We were able to announce a 10-year extension a CME Group's exclusive license to offer futures and options on futures based on the NASDAQ 100 and other NASDAQ indexes. This license will go through 2039." Equity-index ADV grew 13% in Q2 FY2025 and is the highest-RPC complex; removing renewal risk through 2039 at existing economics resolves what was the largest single contract-risk overhang in the franchise.

International went from "growing segment" to record-setting. EMEA and APAC each hit all-time highs (+15% and +30% respectively) and combined now represent 9.2M ADV — nearly a third of total volume. The tariff cycle that began in April was explicitly cited as driving sustained, not transient, EMEA/APAC activity.

Confidence in Q&A was notably higher than typical CME calls except on one topic: 24/7 trading. Terry Duffy's hedge that the timeline "could be 10 years, 20 years, or 2 years — I don't know" stood out against the precise metrics offered everywhere else, suggesting management has no near-term plan and wants to avoid being pinned to one.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Record-breaking volume across all six asset classesRetail trader expansion driving new customer acquisitionGlobal risk management demand in macro uncertaintyInternational business acceleration (EMEA and APAC records)Margin expansion and earnings growthCapital efficiency and transparency of cleared products

Risks management surfaced:

Forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties that may affect performanceDifficult-to-predict outcomes and actual results may differ materially

Q&A highlights

Owen Lau · Oppenheimer

What macro backdrop and key drivers (interest rates, commodities, crypto) can sustain strong hedging activities in H2?

Management acknowledged difficulty predicting volumes but highlighted global risks: record debt levels in US and Europe, geopolitical tensions (Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Palestine), and policy uncertainty (tariffs). These create risk management needs across asset classes. No specific driver identified as dominant; multiple factors could drive hedging demand.

Record debt levels globally creating risk management needsGeopolitical tensions ongoing in multiple regionsDifficulty predicting volume translation from macro risks

Brian Bedell · Deutsche Bank

Retail growth metrics: how are 90,000 new traders measured, new broker sources, cross-asset participation? Crypto strategy: perpetuals, tokenization, acquisitions?

90,000 new traders represent 56% YoY growth, 5th consecutive quarter of double-digit retail acquisition. Growth driven by partnerships with new futures brokers, diverse products, education. Retail shows cross-asset migration (crypto 94% micro Bitcoin, 212% micro Ether growth). On crypto: CME is 'fast follower' not first mover. Perpetuals face US legal barriers; cash-settled products more conducive. No perpetual plans announced.

90,000 new retail traders, up 56% YoY5 consecutive quarters of double-digit retail acquisitionMicro Bitcoin contracts up 94%, micro Ether up 212%Total retail participation up 16% this quarter

Chris Allen · Citi

Capital deployment priorities: buybacks vs dividends given cash balance and closing loss rate in H2? Inorganic growth opportunities?

Capital deployment strategy unchanged: opportunistic share repurchase program combined with variable dividend structure, dependent on market activity. Inorganic M&A remains challenging in exchange space; more selective approach. Pursuing growth through joint ventures and commercial agreements (NASDAQ extension announced) rather than pure M&A.

Opportunistic buyback program maintainedVariable dividend structure in placeNASDAQ licensing agreement extended to 2039 at existing economicsMore selective M&A approach; exploring JVs and commercial agreements

Eli Abuhudan · Bank of America

Impact of tariffs on physical commodities business? Have basis differentials with European alternatives affected commercial channel trading?

Tariffs creating short/long-term dislocations and cost basis differentials requiring risk management. Results in increased volume and record activity across APAC (up 40%) and EMEA (up 22%). Basis shifts reflected in record EFP (exchange of physical) activity. Options saw particular strength. Record volumes in metals and energy sustained through June. Tariff-driven basis risk is opportunity for both commercial hedgers and speculators.

APAC volume up almost 40%, EMEA up over 22%Record activity in April (tariff announcement) sustained through JuneIncreased EFP (exchange of physical) activity due to basis shiftsOptions seeing record activity

Ken Worthington · JPMorgan

Impact of new cash collateral requirements (April 1 implementation, 30% soft minimum, 10 bps charge)? Average collateral balances?

Total collateral Q2 averaged $316B (up from $290B Q1): $133B cash, $145B non-cash. Cash posted at ~48% vs 30% soft minimum, elevated due to Q2 volatility spike. Expected to normalize toward 30% target as year progresses. July showing steady cash (~$132B) but higher non-cash ($153B), suggesting gradual normalization. Charge impact not quantified separately.

Q2 total collateral: $316B average ($133B cash, $145B non-cash)Cash at 48% vs 30% soft minimum targetQ1 total collateral: $290BJuly cash: $132B (steady), non-cash: $153B (up), total: $321B

What to watch into next quarter

Cash collateral normalization — Q2 FY2025 cash share at 48% vs 30% target inflated near-term clearing revenue. Watch whether the mix migrates toward 30% in Q3 FY2025 and what the dollar impact on non-trading revenue is.

Retail trader cohort retention — five straight quarters of double-digit acquisition is a vintage problem in disguise. Watch whether trailing-cohort active counts and rate-per-contract hold up, not just new-trader gross adds.

ADV in H2 FY2025 against the 30.2M Q2 FY2025 baseline — Q2 FY2025 was the first quarter ever above 30M, partly tariff-driven. A reversion to 27-28M would still be growth but would dent the "structural demand" narrative.

Crypto complex monetization — $26B notional and 232K July contracts are headline-grabbing but RPC and revenue contribution remain unstated. Look for explicit revenue disclosure if growth continues.

FY2025 adjusted opex tracking against the $1.635B guide — first-half spending pace will tell whether the 3% growth target absorbs continued international and retail investment or requires upward revision.

International ADV mix — EMEA +15% and APAC +30% are now meaningful enough that any reversal would be visible at the consolidated level. Watch for sustainment versus tariff-cycle dependence.

Sources

  1. CME Group Q2 FY2025 Press Release (Exhibit 99.1), SEC filing, July 23, 2025: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637525000176/exhibit9916302025.htm
  2. CME Group Q2 FY2025 earnings call commentary and Q&A (as provided in extraction inputs)

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