CME · Q2 2026 Earnings

Cautious

CME Group

Reported July 22, 2026

30-second summary

Q2 revenue grew just 0.8% YoY to $1.71B — the sharpest deceleration in the cycle — with clearing & transaction fees actually declining 2.6% YoY to $1.35B as RPC slid to $0.678 (from $0.652 in Q1 and $0.690 in the year-ago quarter) despite ADV holding at 29.8M contracts. Adj. diluted EPS came in at $2.99 vs $2.96 prior year (+1.0% YoY); GAAP diluted EPS at $2.88 vs $2.81 (+2.5% YoY). The Q1 "records across all six asset classes" story has flattened into a print where ADV is holding but pricing is still compressing and market data (+20.2% YoY) is doing nearly all the revenue work — the mix-shift concern flagged in the prior watch list is now the dominant read.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$2.99

-2.3% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$1.71B

+0.8% YoY

-0.2% vs est.

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

64.9%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$1.71B	$1.69B	+0.8%	$1.88B	-9.3%
EPS	$2.99	$2.96	+1.0%	$3.36	-11.0%
Operating margin	64.9%	66.7%	-180bps	69.6%	-470bps

Guidance

No numerical guidance provided this quarter; unable to assess changes versus prior quarter.

Segment performance

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Clearing and transaction fees	$1.353B	$1.388B	-2.5%
Market data and information services	$0.238B	$0.198B	+20.2%
Other	$0.116B	$0.106B	+9.4%
Market data revenue	$238 million	—	—

Capital & returns

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Dividend payments	$468 million	—	—
Share repurchases	$695 million	—	—

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Average Daily Volume (ADV)	29.8 million contracts	30.2 million contracts	—
Non-U.S. ADV	9.1 million contracts	—	—
Average Rate Per Contract (RPC)	$0.678	$0.690	—
Daily margin efficiencies provided	$95 billion	—	—
Operating margin	64.9%	66.7%	—

Management tone

No transcript was available for Q2 FY2026; the tone analysis below is limited to what can be inferred from the press release's qualitative statements versus prior-quarter transcripts.

Q3 FY2025 product pivot → Q4 FY2025 new product stack funded → Q1 FY2026 records across all six asset classes → Q2 FY2026 narrative retreat to "tools."

The most striking shift is subtractive. Q1's press release and call led with "for the first time in our history, we achieved simultaneously record volume across every one of our six asset classes" and framed capital efficiency as a co-equal pillar to volume growth. Q2's qualitative posture, per the available disclosures, narrowed to "we continue to innovate a number of new tools to help clients manage risk and pursue opportunities" — a functional, operational framing that pointedly does not re-assert breadth, structural demand, or the international scale narrative. The signal is that management is aware the Q1 print set an unsustainable comparison base and is deliberately resetting expectations without directly conceding deceleration.

The pricing narrative continues to retreat quarter by quarter. In Q4 FY2025 management explicitly quantified a +1–1.5% transaction fee uplift on 2025-equivalent volume; in Q1 FY2026 that number was not re-confirmed; in Q2 FY2026 the qualitative statements make no reference to pricing power at all. Clearing & transaction fees down 2.6% YoY with RPC at $0.678 confirms the +1–1.5% uplift is not visible in the P&L — either delayed, absorbed into mix, or de-prioritized as a 2026 lever.

Capital efficiency continues to be positioned as the forward pillar. Daily margin efficiencies of $95B (+$10B vs Q1's $85B) is the one metric that has grown consistently every quarter through the cycle, and its prominence in the press release suggests management wants investors to underwrite this as the durable structural story now that the volume-record framing has hit a comp wall.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

RPC trajectory below $0.652 — RPC actually recovered to $0.678, up 2.6¢ from Q1's $0.652 but still down 1.2¢ vs Q2 FY2025's $0.690. The recovery vs Q1 suggests the extreme Q1 mix shift was itself somewhat anomalous — however, clearing & transaction fees still declined 2.6% YoY, so the pricing recovery was insufficient to offset volume/mix effects. The fee uplift management telegraphed in Q4 FY2025 is not visibly present in the print. Status: Resolved negatively

24/7 crypto and event-contract revenue disclosure — the press release does not break out a discrete revenue line for either initiative. Three consecutive quarters now without disclosure. The market should read this as management not yet confident enough in the unit economics to highlight them separately. Status: Not resolved

International ADV mix sustainability — Non-U.S. ADV came in at 9.1M contracts, down 20% from Q1's 11.4M record. The synchronized Q1 international peak did not sustain, confirming the Venezuela/Iran/crude-supply-disruption tailwind was at least partly cyclical. International is still ~31% of ADV but the "growing faster than domestic" narrative from Q1 has broken. Status: Resolved negatively

Tokenized cash with Bank of Montreal — clearing member integration progress — no update in the available disclosures. Continue monitoring for the year-end 2026 go-live target. Status: Continue monitoring

Q2 FY2026 ADV against the 36.2M record — ADV came in at 29.8M, down 17.7% sequentially and essentially flat vs Q2 FY2025's 30.2M. Above the 32M "structural breadth" floor was the bull case; 29.8M is below it. The Q1 print was the peak, not a new floor. Status: Resolved negatively

Stablecoin license progress — no update in the available disclosures. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Clearing & transaction fee YoY trajectory — Q2 FY2026 at -2.6% YoY is the second negative print in the last four quarters (Q3 FY2025 was -5.3%). A third negative print in Q3 FY2026 against a $1.23B Q3 FY2025 base would confirm the volatility cycle has fully unwound and the pricing pass-through is structurally absent.

RPC direction into Q3 FY2026 — the Q1 $0.652 low may have been the trough, but a slide back below $0.660 alongside softer ADV would remove the pricing leg of the thesis entirely.

FY2026 opex reaffirmation — the $1.695B ex-license fees guide was reaffirmed unchanged in Q1 but not addressed in the Q2 press release. Watch whether the Q3 print confirms the guide holds or signals slippage as new-product spend accelerates.

Market data growth durability — +20.2% YoY at $238M is a genuine acceleration from Q1's +15.2% and is doing nearly all the revenue work. Watch whether this holds against the +14.5% Q3 FY2025 comp or reverts to the historical low-double-digit range.

Non-U.S. ADV floor — 9.1M is the reversion; watch whether Q3 FY2026 stabilizes here or slides toward the Q4 FY2025 8.3M level. Below 9M and the international structural-scale narrative needs to be reunderwritten.

Buyback pace — $695M in Q2 FY2026 repurchases is elevated relative to the historical variable-dividend + opportunistic-buyback framework. Continued elevated pace signals management is defensively supporting EPS as revenue growth stalls.

Sources

CME Group Q2 FY2026 Press Release (Exhibit 99.1), SEC filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000042/exhibit9916302026.htm
CME Group Q1 FY2026, Q4 FY2025, Q3 FY2025, Q2 FY2025 briefs (Tapebrief) for multi-quarter trend comparison

Get the next brief, free.

We publish analyst-grade earnings briefs the same day or morning after every call — headline numbers, segment KPIs, Q&A highlights, and tone analysis. Free during beta.

This is not investment advice.