CME · Q4 2025 Earnings
BullishCME Group
Reported February 4, 2026
30-second summary
Q4 revenue grew 8.1% YoY to $1.65B with clearing & transaction fees up +7.8% YoY ($1.33B) and ADV recovering to 27.4M (+7% YoY). Commodities ADV grew +12%, GAAP operating margin came in at 61.9% / adjusted operating margin at 67.0%, and management pre-announced January 2026 set "new volume records" alongside a 2026 opex guide of ~$1.695B (~+4.3% vs FY2025 actual adjusted opex ex-license fees of ~$1.625B). The story is no longer "is the volatility cycle over" — it's "how much of the new product stack (24/7 crypto, prediction markets, securities clearing) actually monetizes in 2026."
Headline numbers
EPS
Q4 FY2025
$2.77
Revenue
Q4 FY2025
$1.65B
+8.1% YoY
Operating margin
Q4 FY2025
61.9%
Key financials
Q4 FY2025| Metric | Q4 FY2025 | YoY | Q3 FY2025 | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.65B | +8.1% | $1.54B | +7.3% |
| EPS | $2.77 | — | $2.68 | +3.4% |
| Operating margin | 61.9% | — | 63.3% | -140bps |
Guidance
Company provides initial FY2026 guidance on operating expenses, capex, and tax rate with no prior quarter baseline to compare; qualitatively optimistic on 2026 activity.
Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.
New guidance
| Metric | Period | Guide | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted operating expenses excluding license fees | FY 2026 | approximately $1.695 billion | — |
| Total capital expenditures | FY 2026 | approximately $85 million | — |
| Adjusted effective tax rate | FY 2026 | 23.5% to 24.5% | — |
Segment performance
Q4 FY2025| Segment | Q4 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Clearing and transaction fees | $1.328B | +7.8% |
| Market data and information services | $0.208B | +14.5% |
| Other | $0.113B | +1.3% |
Other KPIs
Q4 FY2025| Segment | Q4 FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Average Daily Volume (ADV) | 27.4 million contracts |
| ADV Growth YoY | 7% |
| Non-U.S. ADV | 8.3 million contracts |
| Non-U.S. ADV Growth YoY | 9% |
| Average Rate Per Contract (RPC) | $0.707 |
| Commodities Trading Growth YoY | 12% |
| Financials Growth YoY | 5% |
| Operating Margin | 61.9% |
Management tone
The defining shift this quarter is that the new-product narrative — retail micros, prediction markets, 24/7 crypto, securities clearing — has moved from "we're building these" to "we're spending real money on these in 2026 and you can see it in the opex guide." Management's framing: "This includes our typical core expense growth as well as reinvestment related to the new initiatives ramping up this year, including 24-7 crypto trading, securities clearing, and event contracts." The opex guide is the proof — $1.695B ex-license fees is +4.3% vs FY2025 actual, with the increment explicitly earmarked for the new platforms. Adjusted operating margin for the quarter held at 67.0% (GAAP 61.9%), so the spend is being absorbed without margin damage in the run-up.
Pricing posture shifted from passive to active. Prior calls referenced annual December fee adjustments as a calendar event; this quarter Lynn Martin said "We will be evaluating transaction fees on a regular basis going forward and may make changes as conditions warrant versus aggregating in December as in past years." That cadence change is unusual and signals two things — first, that management believes it has enough pricing power to move outside the predictable annual reset window without triggering customer pushback; second, that 2026 revenue modeling now has materially less guidance transparency because the ~1–1.5% fee uplift on 2025-like volume is the only quantified anchor. Sell-side modelers lose visibility; CME gains optionality.
The retail-as-distribution thesis hardened into operational scale. Per Terry Duffy's prepared remarks, "micro-products [were] up 59% in Q4 to a record 4.4 million contracts per day" and "Over 68 million of these event contracts have traded in the six weeks since launch." The prediction-market launch in December has already produced enough volume to be quoted as a headline metric within six weeks — a faster ramp than the FanDuel-launch language earlier in the year telegraphed.
Crypto went from launch ambition to firm forward commitment: "we'll begin offering 24-7 trading for our entire crypto suite next quarter to enable our customers to hedge exposure to the underlying cash markets." Q4 crypto ADV grew 92% YoY across the complex. That is the firmest forward statement on the call and removes timing uncertainty around the rollout.
The post-quarter pre-announcement — January 2026 carrying "new volume records" — is the most confident forward sentence CME has offered in recent memory. The posture is "the momentum is already showing up in the next-quarter print," a meaningful elevation in tone.
Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:
Risks management surfaced:
Q&A highlights
Dan Fannin · Jefferies
Customer health and activity in the current environment, particularly around margin requirement changes in the metals complex (silver) and volatility impacts.
Management indicated customer base is very healthy. Silver margin changes to notional regime did not negatively impact the market; silver made new historic highs. Open positions around 125 million. Retail and institutional segments both growing, with institutional base growing double digits. Open interest steady to increasing, volume increases across all regions and products.
Patrick Molley · Piper Sandler
Engagement with market makers and institutions in prediction markets; regulatory and legal landscape around prediction markets and CFTC jurisdiction.
New market makers and institutional participants reaching out, attracted by product design and existing liquidity. CME launched prediction markets in December with strong early response. On regulatory side, CFTC Chairman Selig committed to overseeing prediction markets as swaps under CFTC regulation, which management views as legal. CME will not pursue litigation over classification; focus is distribution through FanDuel and other platforms to attract new traders to traditional benchmark products.
Benjamin Budish · Barplace
Pricing changes announced, particularly market data pricing increases and transaction fee changes by asset class.
3.5% RAC rate increase on market data products effective January 1st. Market data revenue reached record $800 million annually with 31 consecutive quarters of growth. Q4 data revenue up 15% to $208 million. Growth driven by: 50% new user expansion (retail and institutional), 25% product innovation (cloud-based delivery), 25% pricing integrity. Transaction fee changes impacted metals (precious metals, micro), crude oil, and grains most significantly. Rates complex saw incentive program changes rather than fee schedule changes. Moving away from consolidated December pricing changes to staggered implementation throughout the year.
Craig Siegenthaler · Bank of America
Strategy shift away from consolidated December pricing announcements; impact on transparency and future pricing increase magnitude.
Management stated they are moving to real-time pricing decisions based on business needs rather than following a December announcement pattern. Some increases may be smaller, some larger, some may not occur. They will continue pricing changes as they deliver value but don't need to follow an annual pattern.
Bill Katz · TD Cowen
Capital allocation strategy with OSTRA proceeds and buyback approach; durability of market data revenue growth amid AI disintermediation risk.
OSTRA offshore proceeds will be deployed toward share repurchases, with buyback activity already underway. On market data, 31 consecutive quarters of growth driven by recurring subscription revenue and uptick in retail and institutional demand. AI is not creating disintermediation risk for CME's data business as proprietary data remains critical input for customers' trading strategies, backtesting, and risk management. Customers need core source data from CME even as they enhance algorithms with AI. Management believes AI could enhance rather than disrupt the business.
Answers to last quarter's watch list
What to watch into next quarter
Q1 FY2026 ADV against the implied "record January" baseline — management pre-announced January records, so the bar is set above the 27.4M Q4 FY2025 run-rate. Anything below that would suggest the post-quarter commentary was the peak rather than a continuation.
24/7 crypto trading launch metrics — first full quarter of round-the-clock crypto trading on Globex. Watch for explicit disclosure of overnight/weekend share of crypto ADV, RPC on the new sessions, and whether the 92% YoY crypto growth holds as the comp gets harder.
Event contract revenue contribution — 68M trades in six weeks is a volume metric, not a revenue one. Watch whether CME breaks out event-contract RPC and revenue, or continues to bundle them into the broader clearing line. If management is willing to disclose, it signals confidence in the economics.
Transaction fee uplift realization — the ~1–1.5% revenue uplift on 2025-equivalent volumes is the only quantified 2026 revenue anchor management has provided. Track Q1 FY2026 clearing & transaction fee growth ex-volume to validate the pricing pass-through.
Opex run-rate vs the $1.695B FY2026 guide — first-quarter spending will indicate whether the 4.3% growth target absorbs the 24/7 crypto, securities clearing, and event-contracts ramp or requires upward revision mid-year.
Prediction market regulatory durability — CFTC swap-classification posture is administrative, not codified. Any change in CFTC leadership or formal rulemaking that revisits the framework would re-open the binary risk that appeared closed this quarter.
Sources
- CME Group Q4 FY2025 Press Release (Exhibit 99.1), SEC filing, February 4, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000006/exhibit991123125.htm
- CME Group Q4 FY2025 earnings call prepared remarks and Q&A (Terry Duffy, Lynn Martin, Julie Winkler, Tim McCourt)
- CME Group Q3 FY2025 and Q2 FY2025 briefs (Tapebrief) for trend comparison
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