CNP · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

CenterPoint Energy

Reported February 19, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: CenterPoint closed FY2025 with non-GAAP EPS of $1.76 (Q4 non-GAAP $0.45, GAAP $0.40), landing in the upper half of the revised $1.75–$1.77 range. FY2026 guidance was reaffirmed at $1.89–$1.91 and the 10-year capital plan was modestly bumped to ~$65.5B (from $65B) with the period clarified to 2026–2035; the long-term EPS growth algorithm of 7–9% through 2035 with 2026–2028 at the mid-to-high end was held unchanged. The genuinely new disclosure is operational: data center committed load now represents 50% of expected load growth at ~7.5 GW, roughly double what was implied last quarter, with management asserting no incremental equity needs through 2027.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$0.45

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
EPS	$0.45	—	$0.50	-10.0%

Guidance

Full-year 2026 EPS guidance reaffirmed at $1.89–$1.91 with long-term growth targets and capital plan unchanged; capital investment plan modestly increased by $0.5B to ~$65.5B through 2035.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Non-GAAP EPS	FY 2025	—	$1.76	in-line	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Non-GAAP EPS	Q1 FY2026	$1.89 - $1.91	—

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Non-GAAP EPS ($1.89 - $1.91), Non-GAAP EPS annual growth target (7–9% through 2035, expecting mid-to-high end 2026-28), Rate base growth (11%+ expected through 2030), O&M reductions (1–2% annual on average through 2035), Dividend per share growth (6% annually), Capital investment plan (~$65.5B 2026-2035 with at least $10B incremental opportunities)

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
FFO/Debt (Moody's TTM Q4 2025)	13.8%
Electric Total Throughput Q4 2025	25,557 GWh
Electric Total Metered Customers	3,013,715
Natural Gas Total Throughput Q4 2025	174 Bcf
Natural Gas Total Metered Customers	4,029,085
Non-GAAP EPS FY 2025	$1.76
Dividend Per Share Growth	9% annual
Data Center Load Committed	7.5 GW (50% expected load growth)

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q2 funding mix reset preview → Q3 plan extension to 2035 and EPS growth raised → Q4 load growth doubles, capex held, equity ceiling pushed out two more years.

The arc across three quarters has compressed from "can we fund the plan?" to "the plan is funded and the load case is accelerating." Q2's pitch was that the 50/50 equity-debt mix might improve. Q3 delivered a $65B / 7–9% EPS package with the Ohio sale doing the heavy lifting on the funding side. Q4's incremental signal is that the load-growth thesis is materializing faster than the queue suggested — 7.5 GW now committed vs. ~4 GW of data center in the Q2 queue — while management explicitly states no incremental equity needs through 2027.

Management's posture in Q&A is notably more specific on execution constraints than in prior quarters. Wells's answers on the 765 KV line ($500M, already ERCOT-filed, separate from the new transmission work load growth will require) and the timing split (intra-regional transmission needs in years one through five, import lines toward decade-end and beyond) signal that the company has done the engineering work to translate the load forecast into a capex schedule rather than just a number. The "no material or labor constraints" answer to Campanella, anchored in pre-positioned purchasing and long-standing supplier relationships, reads as a direct response to investor pushback on whether utilities can actually execute on these capex agendas.

The dividend moderation that was the surprise of Q3 has now been digested. Q4 simply reaffirms the 6% rate without recharacterizing it. The FFO/Debt print at 13.8% — at the low end of the cushion framing — is the one number that bears watching. Wells gave a forward 15% target by 2026–2027 in Q&A; if Beryl securitization and Ohio close as planned, that math works.

Q&A highlights

David Arcaro · Morgan Stanley

Clarification on transmission planning study timing, whether the 765 KV line was already included, and potential upside from incremental transmission projects. Also asked about repairs adjustment impact on equity needs in the plan.

Jason separated the $500M 765 KV line (already confirmed need, filed at ERCOT) from separate incremental transmission work needed due to load acceleration. Updated transmission planning expected in H2 2025 with incremental import capacity and intra-regional projects. Chris confirmed repairs adjustment unlocks ~$1B additional CapEx without incremental equity and provides 60-70 bps balance sheet benefit.

$500 million capital increase for 765 KV lineIncremental transmission projects update expected in H2 2025Existing capacity of ~10 GW availableRepairs adjustment unlocks ~$1B additional CapEx without equity

Shar Perez · Wells Fargo Securities

Requested more specificity on the two-year acceleration of 50% load growth in terms of timing and scale of capex impacts, particularly for years 7-9 of guidance. Also asked about ERCOT batching process and potential approval delays.

Jason explained that acceleration is achievable due to existing system capacity; incremental large load projects don't require significant capital. Import capacity and intra-regional transmission needs will impact CapEx toward decade-end (2027-2028 onward). Confirmed no anticipated delays from ERCOT batching; large load interconnections have historically been processed within 70 days, and firmly committed projects remain on 2027-2028 timeline.

2.5 GW of projects in construction phase5 GW of firmly committed projects expected energized by 20283 GW of ordinary course growth expectedLarge load interconnections processed within 70 days historically

Steve Fleischman · Wolf Research

Asked about remaining excess transmission capacity, customer bill impacts, update on Indiana data center opportunity, and FFO to debt trajectory by 2026-27 with all benefits held constant.

Jason indicated ~10 GW of existing capacity remaining (not fully exhausted), with transmission projects underway to unlock more. Confirmed growth helps keep customer bills flat through 2028 by spreading fixed costs over wider base. Remains optimistic on Indiana data center opportunity but notes Texas capacity attraction is primary focus. Chris estimated FFO to debt would be roughly 15% by end of 2026-27 if everything held constant.

~10 GW of remaining excess transmission capacity200+ transmission projects in 10-year planCustomer rates projected flat through 2028Data center growth helping reduce residential delivery charges by over 2%

Jeremy Toney · JPMorgan Securities

Requested detail on smart meters and undergrounding timelines and size of opportunity. Also asked about depth of O&M reduction opportunities given historical accomplishments.

Jason outlined SMART meter program filing expected in Q4 at PUCT with CapEx upside clarity. Downtown revitalization undergrounding update expected H2 2025 after location decisions. System resiliency plan filing expected 2028 with strategic undergrounding work starting 2025, creating upside for 2029-2031. On O&M, emphasized early innings of efficiency; 100M outage minutes saved in 2025 through resiliency work will drive further O&M benefits as automation increases.

SMART meter program filing Q4 2025 at PUCTDowntown revitalization update expected H2 2025System resiliency plan filing expected 2028100 million outage minutes saved in 2025

Nicholas Campanella · Barclays

Asked about the track record of quarterly CapEx increases, ability to bring more capital into the five-year plan versus ten-year plan, and constraints from supply chain and labor.

Jason explained that intra-regional transmission capacity will be needed in first five years, while import lines will mostly hit toward decade-end. Confirmed no material or labor constraints; company has pre-positioned purchasing and supplier relationships due to long history of large load connections. Power flow studies and project details remain the limiting factor.

Intra-regional transmission needs in first five yearsImport lines/765 KV projects likely decade-end to next decadePre-existing purchasing spots for critical equipment securedLong-term supplier relationships in place

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether the "cushion above downgrade threshold" framing translates to a tighter explicit target. Not resolved this quarter. The framing was held at "100–150bps cushion above 13%" with FFO/Debt printing at 13.8% (Moody's TTM) — ~80bps above threshold, at the low end of the cushion. Wells gave a forward ~15% by 2026–2027 in Q&A but the company did not re-quantify the cushion explicitly.

Continue monitoring

Ohio sale closing mechanics and rate-base replacement pace. Not addressed directly on this print. The Q4 materials did not provide an explicit update on the $500M 2025 redeployment / $1B 2026 commitment or the $1B+ seller's note at 6.5% beyond the implicit "no incremental equity through 2027" statement, which depends on Ohio proceeds landing as planned.

Continue monitoring

FY2026 EPS bridge to the $1.89–$1.91 reaffirmed range. Not resolved on the print itself — guidance was reaffirmed without a detailed bridge disclosure. Q&A surfaced supporting elements (repairs tax adjustment unlocking $1B capex, 60–70bps FFO/Debt benefit, ~10 GW data center load drivers) but no explicit load-growth / rate-case / cost-reduction decomposition was provided.

Continue monitoring

Data center contracted GW added vs. the 0.5+ GW already in service. Resolved positively. Committed load is now 7.5 GW (50% of expected load growth), with 2.5 GW in construction and 5 GW firmly committed for 2028 energization — a material step up from the Q3 ~0.5 GW in-service figure and the Q2 six-gigawatt queue framing.

Resolved positively

AMI PUCT filing timing. Resolved positively. Wells disclosed a Q4 2025 SMART meter filing date at PUCT — earlier than the 2026 filing implied by the Q3 commentary. This pulls AMI capex from optionality toward base case sooner.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

FFO/Debt recovery trajectory toward the 15% Q&A target. With Q4 printing at 13.8% (Moody's TTM) and the cushion-above-13% framing intact, watch whether Beryl securitization closes in Q1 2026 and lifts the metric meaningfully toward Wells's stated ~15% by 2026–2027 endpoint.

Conversion of the 7.5 GW committed data center load into in-service GW. With 2.5 GW in construction and 5 GW firmly committed for 2028, Q1 should produce concrete energization milestones or signed interconnection agreement progress.

H2 2025 transmission plan update. Wells previewed an updated transmission plan addressing import capacity and intra-regional projects; the incremental capex disclosure here is the next material catalyst beyond the $65.5B base.

Ohio LDC sale closing progress and seller's-note coupon confirmation. The "no incremental equity through 2027" statement depends on Ohio proceeds. Watch for closing announcement and confirmation that the $1B+ seller's note settles at the 6.5% described in Q3.

SMART meter Q4 2025 PUCT filing outcome. Earlier-than-expected filing means a 2026 procedural schedule that could move AMI from the $10B+ incremental tranche into the base plan within the next refresh.

Sources

CenterPoint Energy Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation, filed via SEC EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1130310/000113031026000010/q42025earningspresentati.htm
CenterPoint Energy Q4 2025 earnings conference call Q&A excerpts (prepared remarks unavailable in source feed).

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