COIN · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Coinbase

Reported February 12, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: Q4 revenue of $1.78B fell 22% YoY and 4.6% QoQ as transaction revenue dropped to $983M (-37% YoY, -6% QoQ) and the company posted a $667M GAAP net loss driven by mark-to-market hits on crypto holdings. The forward signal is the Q1 subscription & services guide of $550–$630M (midpoint $590M) — a ~19% sequential cut from Q4's $727M (a $137M sequential decline at midpoint), the first explicit recurring-revenue step-down management has telegraphed, and one that sits awkwardly against Brian Armstrong's "more bullish than ever" framing. S&S still grew +13% YoY in Q4 and +23% for the full year, so the story is sequential deceleration driven by rate cuts and lower crypto prices — not a YoY break — but the Q1 guide is the first quarter where the recurring line has been guided down hard. Transaction expense guidance also widened from "Mid-Teens" to "Low-to-Mid Teens" of net revenue, giving management downside cover on margin into a softer crypto tape.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$-2.49

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$1.78B

-21.6% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

15.4%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$1.78B	-21.6%	$1.79B	-0.7%
EPS	$-2.49	—	$1.50	-266.0%
Operating margin	15.4%	—	26.8%	-1140bps

Guidance

Q4 subscription revenue narrowly missed guidance at the low end; Q1 FY2026 forward guidance shows modest sequential decline in subscription revenue and broadened transaction expense range, reflecting cautious near-term crypto market outlook.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Subscription and Services Revenue	Q4 FY2025	$710–$790 million	$727 million	-$17 million below the low end of guide	Missed
Technology & Development + General & Administrative Expenses	Q4 FY2025	$925–$975 million	within $925–$975 million range	in-line	Met
Sales and Marketing Expenses	Q4 FY2025	$215–$315 million	within $215–$315 million range	in-line	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Subscription and Services Revenue	Q1 FY2026	$550–$630 million	—
Technology & Development + General & Administrative Expenses	Q1 FY2026	$925–$975 million	—
Sales and Marketing Expenses	Q1 FY2026	$215–$315 million	—
Stock-based Compensation	Q1 FY2026	~$250 million	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Transaction Expenses	Q4 FY2025	Mid-Teens as a percentage of net revenue	Low-to-Mid Teens as a percentage of net revenue	widened range from 'Mid-Teens' to 'Low-to-Mid Teens'	Raised

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Transaction Revenue	$0.983B	-5.8%
Subscription and Services Revenue	$0.727B	-2.6%
Consumer Transaction Revenue	$0.734B	-12.7%
Institutional Transaction Revenue	$0.185B	+37.0%
Stablecoin Revenue	$0.364B	+3.0%
Blockchain Rewards Revenue	$0.152B	-17.9%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Coinbase Total Trading Volume	$5.2 trillion (2025 FY)
Coinbase Crypto Trading Volume Market Share	Doubled YoY (2025)
Consumer Spot Trading Volume (Q4)	$56 billion
Institutional Spot Trading Volume (Q4)	$215 billion
Assets on Platform	3x growth over 3 years; 12% of all crypto globally
Average USDC Held in Coinbase Products (Q4)	$17.8 billion (ATH)
Paid Coinbase One Subscribers	~1 million (ATH)
Products Generating >$100M Annualized Revenue	12 products (2 generating >$1B)

Management tone

Q1 peak euphoria → Q2 revenue-over-volume pivot → Q3 "Everything Exchange as next chapter" → Q4 "more bullish than ever" against a sequential cut

Three quarters ago management was defending against volume normalization; this quarter Brian Armstrong is delivering the most categorically bullish statement of his tenure into a print where revenue fell 22% YoY and the company guided down sequentially on recurring revenue. Anchor: "I'm more bullish than ever." The disconnect between the rhetoric and the Q1 S&S guide ($590M midpoint vs $727M Q4 actual) is the single most important tension in this call. It signals management is anchoring narrative to a multi-year vision because the near-term tape doesn't support it.

The "diversified revenue engine resilient to price cycles" framing has been the through-line for four quarters, and Q4 is where it gets stress-tested in real time. Anchor: "Our revenue is less correlated to crypto price fluctuations... we generated positive adjusted EBITDA in any market condition." Total revenue fell 22% YoY in Q4 alongside crypto prices; S&S still grew +13% YoY (and +23% for the full year), supporting the decoupling claim on a YoY basis. The pressure point is sequential: S&S -3% QoQ in Q4 and guided to a ~19% further sequential cut in Q1. The thesis isn't invalidated, but it now depends on whether S&S re-accelerates off the Q1 trough.

Stablecoin language escalated again, from Q2's "live with Shopify" to Q3's "Citi partnership" to Q4's "default payment method for AI agents." Anchor: "Stablecoins will be the default payment method for AI agents." The ambition is now systemic-infrastructure-level. The tension is that QoQ stablecoin revenue grew only 3% despite USDC balances on platform rising 18% QoQ to a record $17.8B — yield compression following October and December rate cuts is the binding constraint, and management did not address it directly on the call. The YoY growth rate of +61% is still strong, but the sequential gap between balance growth and revenue growth is the leading indicator.

Bitcoin treasury strategy crystallized into doctrine. Anchor: "Coinbase is buying the dip... We've modestly increased the size of our weekly purchase." Two quarters ago BTC accumulation was a balance-sheet footnote; this quarter management doubled holdings in 2025 and is explicitly leaning into weakness. This is a deliberate posture shift toward MicroStrategy-style treasury optionality — a real strategic choice with real concentration risk that didn't exist in the franchise narrative a year ago.

Regulatory framing flipped from headwind to tailwind, and management is now using it as the international growth catalyst. Anchor: "Regulatory clarity is on the horizon... now as regulatory clarity has emerged around the world, we're growing our share internationally." The Genius Act passing in 2025 and the House Clarity Act draft are doing real work in the bull case — global trading volume market share doubled YoY by management's framing.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Everything Exchange as multi-asset platform visionStablecoins and payments as core growth driverRevenue diversification reducing crypto price correlationAI agents adopting stablecoins and BASE ecosystemRegulatory clarity enabling international growthBalance sheet strength enabling opportunistic investment

Risks management surfaced:

Crypto market cyclicality and price volatilityRegulatory and legislative uncertainty (Clarity Act still pending)Competition in Everything Exchange from traditional exchangesExecution risk on new products (tokenized equities, base expansion)Unrealized losses on crypto and strategic investments

Q&A highlights

Andrew Jeffrey · William Blair

Discuss line of sight to everything exchange monetization and thoughts on timing of revenue diversification.

Management highlighted diversification of tradable assets under the everything exchange as key for 2026. Derivatives expected to be a major growth driver with momentum across U.S. and international markets, bolstered by Deribit acquisition. Prediction markets and equities recently rolled out showing early encouraging signals. Company has 12 products generating over $100M annualized revenue, with goal of scaling more to the $250M tier where six products already operate. Strategy focuses on driving assets on platform, growing native units, and creating flywheel effect where customers trade more products and drive monetization.

12 products with over $100M annualized revenue6 products in $250M+ annualized revenue tierPrediction markets and equities rolled out within last few weeksDeribit options integration as significant growth driver

Ken Worthington · J.P. Morgan

Could economic relationship with Circle change based on market structure legislation language, particularly stablecoin reward restrictions?

Management stated no change to Circle economic relationship expected from market structure legislation. Even if rewards were prohibited by law, it would make Coinbase more profitable since they currently pass majority of Circle economics to customers. However, management opposes such restrictions as they believe it's better for customers, U.S. competitiveness, and is already allowed under recently-passed Genius Act. Management will continue advocating for preservation of stablecoin reward programs.

Genius Act passed 5 months ago allows stablecoin rewardsHouse draft received strong bipartisan vote without reward restrictionsCurrent practice passes majority of Circle economics to customers150 companies announced stablecoin integrations in 3 months post-Genius Act

Owen Lau · Clear Street

How does Coinbase think about buyback and M&A opportunities given sector valuation declines?

Management emphasized strong financial position with $11B+ cash and deployment across multiple levers: $1.7B deployed for 8.2M share repurchases (Q4 through Feb 10), 10 acquisitions/acquihires completed in 2025 including Deribit (largest crypto deal of all time), significant Bitcoin portfolio growth (doubled BTC holdings in 2025), and continued opportunistic M&A. Management noted 12 consecutive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA and commitment to dynamically allocating capital to highest ROI opportunities.

$11B+ in cash and cash equivalents$1.7B deployed for share repurchases (Q4-Feb 10)8.2M shares repurchased10 acquisitions/acquihires in 2025

Patrick Moley · Piper Sandler

What prediction market adoption have you seen among customers? Plans to build own venue or continue as retail distributor?

Prediction markets rolled out to 100% of customers a couple weeks ago showing early strong interest. Super Bowl weekend proved pivotal moment for customer discovery. Management rapidly improving UX, adding markets, and creating dedicated sports hub with live scores. Currently partnered with CalSheet but arrangement is non-exclusive. Management stated ability to launch own markets but nothing to announce currently, keeping options open.

Prediction markets rolled out to 100% of customers ~2 weeks agoEarly interest described as greatSuper Bowl weekend highlighted strong discovery momentPartnership with CalSheet is non-exclusive

Ramzi L. Asal · Cantor Fitzgerald

Help us think through M&A strategy for 2026. What parts of business are you looking to bolster and what asset types are you targeting?

2025 was fantastic year for M&A with marquee acquisitions including Deribit and Echo. Made 10 acquisitions/acquihires accelerating product roadmap. In 2026, being selective but aggressive where assets meaningfully pull forward roadmap. Thematic focus areas: advancing everything exchange, owning more on-chain infrastructure, and bundling stablecoins with payments infrastructure.

10 acquisitions/acquihires in 2025Marquee pickups: Deribit, Echo, and othersThree thematic M&A focus areas: everything exchange, on-chain infrastructure, stablecoins/payments bundling2026 strategy: selective but aggressive on roadmap-accelerating assets

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q4 Tech & Dev + G&A actuals land toward the low end ($925M) or high end ($975M) of guide, and whether management quantifies the 2026 opex-growth slowdown. Q4 T&D + G&A landed in-range at $950M; Q1 FY2026 guide is unchanged at $925–$975M and explicitly described as "roughly flat Q/Q." The verbal promise of opex-growth deceleration in early 2026 is being delivered — the line is flat, not stepping up further.

Resolved positively

Whether stablecoin revenue re-accelerates above $355M and whether on-platform USDC balances cross $16.5B. Mixed. Stablecoin revenue ticked to $364M (+3% QoQ) — barely re-accelerated sequentially even as YoY growth remains very strong at +61%. USDC balances hit $17.8B ATH, crossing the $16.5B threshold and growing ~18% QoQ. The payments narrative on volume is intact; the sequential revenue line decoupled from balance growth, and management didn't address yield compression directly. Status: Mixed.

What gets announced at the December 17 product showcase — specifically tokenized equities launch detail. The December 17 showcase event was not referenced in extracted Q&A; equities did roll out (referenced by Jeffrey in Q&A) and prediction markets launched to 100% of customers. No concrete tokenized-equities launch date, named issuer, or pilot timeline was disclosed. The next disclosure window is now end-of-Q1.

Continue monitoring

Q4 institutional transaction revenue vs the $135M Q3 print. Q4 institutional transaction revenue printed $185M, +37% QoQ and +31% YoY — materially above $135M. Deribit's first full quarter validates the Q3 surge as structural, not an integration step-up.

Resolved positively

October transaction revenue of ~$385M as the leading indicator for Q4 transaction revenue. Q4 transaction revenue printed $983M, below the $1.15B annualized read from October — the October pace did not sustain.

Resolved negatively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q1 FY2026 subscription & services prints above the $590M guide midpoint. S&S still grew +13% YoY in Q4 but is guided to a $137M sequential cut at the Q1 midpoint. A print below the midpoint would mean the recurring line is decelerating faster than the rate/price environment alone would dictate, and the diversification thesis loses force as a near-term operating reality.

Whether the ~$420M YTD-Feb-10 transaction revenue pace sustains through quarter-end. At management's "approximately halfway" framing, this implies ~$840M for Q1 vs Q4's $983M — a sharper sequential decline. A January-loaded number that fades through February and March would mean transaction revenue is now in a downtrend, not a trough.

Stablecoin revenue per dollar of USDC balance. On-platform balances grew ~18% QoQ to $17.8B and off-platform balances rose 11% to $58.4B; revenue grew only 3% QoQ. If this gap widens in Q1 — balances flat-to-up, revenue flat-to-down — yield compression becomes the dominant variable and the "Genius Act tailwind" thesis loses force on the P&L even if it holds on volumes.

Whether the "end of Q1" product disclosure event delivers a concrete tokenized-equities launch date with a named issuer. This is now the third deferral; another vague update converts the initiative from "deferred catalyst" to "narrative item with no execution proof."

Q1 institutional transaction revenue vs Q4's $185M. Now that we have a full-Deribit-quarter baseline, the question is whether derivatives can grow off it organically. A flat-to-down print would mean the +37% QoQ in Q4 was the integration ceiling, not the floor.

Operating margin trajectory. Q4 operating margin was 15.4%. The Q1 expense guide is flat Q/Q, so if revenue declines sequentially as the line items imply, margin compresses further.

Sources

Coinbase Q4 FY2025 Shareholder Letter (SEC filing): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000167978826000011/q425shareholderletter.htm
Coinbase Q4 FY2025 earnings call prepared remarks and Q&A

Get the next brief, free.

We publish analyst-grade earnings briefs the same day or morning after every call — headline numbers, segment KPIs, Q&A highlights, and tone analysis. Free during beta.

This is not investment advice.