DLTR · Q4 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Dollar Tree

Reported March 16, 2026

30-second summary

Dollar Tree closed FY2025 with Q4 comp +5.0% (midpoint of the 4–6% guide), adjusted EPS of $2.56 (above the $2.50 midpoint), and a clean beat on the $5.40–$5.50B revenue range at $5.451B. The FY2026 setup is the structural story: revenue guide steps up to $20.5–$20.7B and EPS to $6.50–$6.90 (+13–20% YoY off $5.75 adjusted actual), but the comp guide reset to +3–4% from FY2025's +5.3% actual — a 130–230bps deceleration that management is anchoring as the new base case even after a five-quarter run of 4%+ comps. Traffic went negative (-1.2%) in Q4 with ticket carrying the whole +5.0% comp, which is the cleanest tell that the multi-price tailwind is now lapping itself.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2026

$2.56

Revenue

Q4 FY2026

$5.45B

+9.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2026

39.1%

Free cash flow

Q4 FY2026

$0.97B

Operating margin

Q4 FY2026

12.7%

Key financials

Q4 FY2026

Metric	Q4 FY2026	YoY	Q3 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$5.45B	+9.0%	$4.75B	+14.7%
EPS	$2.56	—	$1.21	+111.6%
Gross margin	39.1%	—	35.8%	+330bps
Operating margin	12.7%	—	7.2%	+550bps
Free cash flow	$0.97B	—	$-0.06B	+1797.0%

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q4 FY2026	$5.4B to $5.5B	$5.451B	in-line	Met
Comparable Store Net Sales Growth	Q4 FY2026	4.0% to 6.0%	5.0%	in-line (midpoint of range)	Beat
Adjusted Diluted EPS	Q4 FY2026	$2.40 to $2.60	$2.56	-$0.04 below high end; +$0.16 above low end	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	Q1 FY2027	$4.9B to $5.0B	—
Comparable Store Net Sales Growth	Q1 FY2027	3% to 4%	—
Adjusted Diluted EPS	Q1 FY2027	$1.45 to $1.60	—
New Store Openings	FY 2026	Approximately 400	—
Store Closings	FY 2026	75	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Revenue	FY 2026	$19.35B to $19.45B	$20.5B to $20.7B	+$1.10B to +$1.25B (upper end +6.4%)	Raised
Comparable Store Net Sales Growth	FY 2026	5.0% to 5.5%	3% to 4%	-1.0 to -2.5 percentage points	Raised
Adjusted Diluted EPS	FY 2026	$5.60 to $5.80	$6.50 to $6.90	+$0.90 to +$1.10 (upper end +18.9%)	Raised

Segment performance

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	YoY
Dollar Tree	$5.446B	+9.0%

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026
Comparable Store Sales Growth	5.0%
Average Ticket Growth	6.3%
Traffic Growth	-1.2%
New Store Openings (Q4)	42 stores
Multi-Price Format Stores	~5,300 stores
Total Store Count	9,282 stores

Profitability

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026
SGA as % of Revenue	26.9%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026
Share Repurchases (Q4)	$232 million

Management tone

No transcript was available for this quarter; tone analysis is drawn from the press release and prior quarters' calls.

Q1 "Q2 is going to hurt, back half has to fix it" → Q2 "Q2 beat, but Q3 resets to flat" → Q3 "FY locked in, Q4 floor reopened to 4%" → Q4 "FY2025 delivered, FY2026 comp resets to 3–4%."

The dominant multi-quarter shift is on comp ambition normalization. Through FY2025, management ratcheted the comp guide upward every quarter (3–5% → 4–6% → 5.0–5.5%) and delivered +5.3% on the full year. The FY2026 guide of +3–4% takes the comp framework back below the FY2025 starting point. The press release frames this as the "20th consecutive year of positive same store sales" — a streak-preservation narrative rather than a momentum-extension narrative. That word choice matters: management is no longer selling re-acceleration, they are selling continuity. Translation: the multi-price flywheel has done its first lap and the next chapter is volume, not velocity.

The second shift is on EPS over comp. Comp guide came down 130–230bps vs FY2025 actual; EPS guide midpoint went up $0.95 versus FY2025 actual ($5.75 → $6.70). The implication is that management believes margin expansion (lever execution, occupancy leverage at slower comp) can carry EPS growth of +13% to +20% YoY on +3–4% comps. That is a confidence step-up on the five-lever framework's durability, paired with a confidence step-down on top-line acceleration. The Q3 framing of "agility is now steady-state" hardens here into "steady-state delivers EPS even when comp slows."

The third shift is on traffic disclosure. Q1 and Q2 press releases proudly cited +2.5% and +3.0% traffic as evidence the multi-price engine was bringing customers in. Q4 traffic is -1.2% and ticket is +6.3% — and there is no narrative framing around it. The traffic-led growth story that anchored the FY2025 bull case is now a ticket-led growth story, and the silence on the inflection is the tell. The FY2026 +3–4% comp guide is implicitly betting that ticket can keep delivering most of the comp.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 comp landing inside +4–6% and where within it. +5.0%, dead at the midpoint. Neither the bear case (<4%) nor the bull case (>5.5%) printed. FY adjusted EPS landed at $5.75, $0.05 above the $5.70 midpoint — exactly the "execute the plan" outcome.

Resolved positively

Q4 gross margin print vs +50–75bps FY GM guide. Q4 GM +150bps to 39.1%; FY GM +60bps to 36.4%, landing inside the prior +50–75bps guide range (below midpoint, but in range). Status: Resolved — in line with prior guide

December 3 tariff assumption holding through Q4 close. Q4 EPS of $2.56 cleared the midpoint, consistent with no escalation having materially hit the print. The press release explicitly notes higher tariff costs as a partial offset to gross margin gains but the guide held.

Resolved positively

Q4 TSA income disclosure. Q4 TSA income, net was $23.1M; FY $54.9M. This is below the prior $85–$90M annualized framing, which appears to have stepped down post-separation. Status: Resolved — new run-rate established lower than prior framing

3.0 conversion pace exiting the year. Press release: ~2,400 stores converted or added to Dollar Tree 3.0 in FY2025, ending the year with ~5,300 multi-price stores. The Q3 "646 stores on 3.0" denominator has been superseded by the broader multi-price disclosure. Status: Resolved — FY conversion volume disclosed; framework now multi-price-wide

FY2026 initial framing — does "agility is now steady-state" hold at scale. The FY2026 guide is the bull case on EPS ($6.50–$6.90, +13–20% YoY off $5.75) and the bear case on comp (+3–4% vs FY2025's +5.3%). Management is betting that the five-lever framework delivers EPS growth even as the top-line tailwind slows — the cleanest possible statement that they consider the playbook steady-state. The directional message is "lower comp, higher margin" — structurally bullish on execution, bearish on top-line momentum. Status: Resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 FY2026 traffic split. Q4 printed -1.2% traffic / +6.3% ticket — the structural watch is whether Q1 traffic re-inflects positive or stays negative. A second consecutive negative traffic quarter would invalidate the multi-price-as-traffic-driver thesis and reframe Dollar Tree as a pricing story, not a foot-traffic story.

Q1 comp landing inside +3–4%. Anything at or below 3% confirms that the FY2026 guide is trajectory, not conservatism. Anything above 4% reopens the question of why management ratcheted the FY guide down at all.

TSA income run-rate trajectory. Q4 printed $23.1M and FY came in at $54.9M — below the $85–$90M annualized framing from early FY2025. Watch whether Q1 sustains the ~$20M+ quarterly pace or steps down further as separation services wind off.

Gross margin trajectory into Q1. Q1 historically runs ~35–36%; with the FY2026 EPS guide implying continued GM expansion, watch for at least +20–40bps YoY in Q1 to validate the lever framework durability.

Whether management quantifies a multi-price store count target on the Q1 call. The disclosure shift from "646 stores on 3.0" to "~5,300 multi-price stores" is the most consequential framework change of the quarter; the Q1 call is the venue to see whether a multi-year target anchors this or whether it stays a soft denominator.

Tariff narrative in the FY2026 guide framing. The Q3 press release added an explicit December 3 tariff assumption; whether the Q4/FY2026 framing carries an equivalent date-stamped hedge tells you whether management is still operating in scenario mode or has rebased to current policy as steady-state.

Sources

Dollar Tree Q4 FY2025 earnings press release, March 16, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935703/000093570326000024/ex991q4-25earningspressrel.htm
Dollar Tree Q3 FY2025 Tapebrief (prior quarter context)
Dollar Tree Q2 FY2025 Tapebrief (prior quarter context)
Dollar Tree Q1 FY2025 Tapebrief (prior quarter context)

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