DPZ · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Domino's

Reported February 23, 2026

30-second summary

Q4 U.S. same-store sales of +3.7% cleared the 3% bar but decelerated sharply from Q3's +5.2%, while international comps collapsed to +0.7% ex-FX — below the 1–2% framework and the weakest print of the year. Management answered the "2026 lap" question with a 3% U.S. comp guide weighted to the first half, a long-term ambition to double U.S. retail sales to ~$10B with the 8,500-store target intact through 2028, and explicit acknowledgment of January weather disruption. The setup into 2026 is now: lap risk validated, macro fragility on display in the international number, and the bull case riding on DoorDash/Uber not-yet-at-fair-share plus carryout's $4.4B base compounding.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$5.35

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$1.54B

+6.4% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

39.7%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

19.3%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$1.54B	+6.4%	$1.15B	+33.9%
EPS	$5.35	—	$4.08	+31.1%
Gross margin	39.7%	—	40.1%	-40bps
Operating margin	19.3%	—	19.5%	-20bps

Guidance

No quantitative guidance provided for FY2026 or Q1 FY2026; comparison to prior quarter guidance not possible.

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
U.S. Company-owned stores	$0.108B	-9.6%
U.S. franchise royalties and fees	$0.213B	+8.5%
Supply chain	$0.936B	+6.8%
International franchise royalties and fees	$0.107B	+9.1%
U.S. franchise advertising	$0.172B	+11.7%

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Global retail sales growth (ex-FX)	4.9%
U.S. same store sales growth	3.7%
International same store sales growth (ex-FX)	0.7%
Global net store growth (Q4)	392 stores
Total store count	22,142 stores
Global retail sales (Q4)	$6,296.5M

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Operating margin	19.3%
Leverage ratio	4.4x

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
U.S. stores	$3.056B	+5.5%
International stores	$3.24B	+4.5%

Management tone

Q2 2025 (Cautious — "accumulated not peak") → Q3 2025 (Macro caveat introduced) → Q4 2025 (Lap-defense formalized, long-term ambition reframed)

The 2026 lap question, which dominated three consecutive Q&A sessions, finally got a quantitative answer this quarter: 3% U.S. comp, weighted to the first half. Through 2025 management had refused to formalize a 2026 framework, deflecting to "permanent, not LTOs" framing and the decade-long ~1pt/year share-gain pattern. The willingness to put a number on it — even informally in Q&A rather than in the press release — signals confidence that the DoorDash, loyalty, and stuffed crust contributions compound rather than fade. The H1-weighted commentary, however, concedes that the back half will face the toughest lap math.

The long-term ambition was reframed from units to retail sales. Two quarters ago the conversation was anchored on the 8,500-store U.S. target. This quarter, responding to David Tarantino, Russell introduced "double U.S. retail sales to ~$10B" as the explicit goal, with Sandeep clarifying it implies roughly 1pt of share gain per year through 2028. The unit target is still in place but it is now the means, not the end — a meaningful narrative shift that addresses bear concerns about whether unit growth alone can sustain the multiple.

January weather disruption was disclosed proactively. Sandeep noted in Q&A that January caused store closures and "disruption" already included in the 3% guide. The fact that management volunteered the weather caveat alongside the guide — rather than holding it as a Q1 excuse — suggests caution about the H1 print.

The international story got worse without a defense. The +0.7% ex-FX intl comp print decelerated below the 1–2% framework, but the press release offered no Q4-specific commentary on DPE/Japan or international momentum — and Q&A did not feature a substantive intl exchange among the top five questions captured. The silence is itself a signal: when the number is good, management talks about it.

Q&A highlights

Brian Bittner · Oppenheimer

What are the biggest share drivers in 2025 and is there opportunity to accelerate share gains given competitor closures? What is driving stable industry growth?

Russell emphasized Domino's is not a 'one and done' company - initiatives like carryout (launched 2010) and loyalty (launched 2015) continue growing years after launch. For 2026, expect 2+ product innovations, operational excellence, and value promotions. Sandeep noted the industry has grown 1-2% since 2019 and expects this to continue. Domino's gains share through consistency in same-store sales growth and superior franchisee economics versus competitors.

Carryout business grew 5.6% in Q4 and 6.5% for full year, now at $4.4 billionLoyalty program at 37.3 million active users, up 20% since 2023 relaunchIndustry growing 1-2% annually since 2019, consistent with 2025Domino's gained 1 point of market share in 2025, 11 points over 11 years

Dennis Geiger · UBS

How much of the 3% U.S. comp guidance comes from existing initiatives versus new initiatives? What is the contribution breakdown?

Sandeep explained that existing initiatives (Parmesan Stuffed Crust, DoorDash, Best Deal Ever, carryout, loyalty) form the baseline and are expected to compound. New 2+ product innovations will layer on top. Weather disruption in January was acknowledged but expected to normalize over the year. Emphasized that previous year's headline events continue into 2026 and will drive incremental growth.

3% U.S. comp expected with higher growth in first half versus second halfJanuary weather caused store closures and disruption, included in guidance but expected to normalizeCarryout baseline at $4.4 billion with continued growth expectedLoyalty program at 20% growth year-over-year, catered to carryout and light users

David Palmer · Evercore ISI

How sustainable is delivery same-store sales growth? Q4 delivery comp of 1.6% seemed to require significant promotional intensity and new platform rollout. What is the outlook for delivery?

Russell and Sandeep emphasized Domino's is not at fair share on DoorDash (only fully rolled out mid-2025) or Uber (not fully present), creating upside. Delivery represents one opportunity; carryout (bigger than delivery at 55% of transactions) only accounts for 1 of 5 carryouts in market. Managed for incrementality and profitability rather than short-term growth. Full delivery retail sales grew ~3% with store growth, gaining 1 point of share.

Delivery comp +1.6% in Q4, +1% for full yearDelivery represents 45% of transactions, 56% of salesCarryout represents 55% of transactions, 44% of salesAbout 1 of 3 deliveries nationally; gaining share in both Uber and DoorDash

David Tarantino · Bayard

Russell mentioned 'doubling US retail sales' - is this a new goal? Over what timeframe? Does this imply different unit opportunity than the 8,500 stores mentioned at investor day?

Russell framed doubling retail sales ($10 billion long-term opportunity) as natural extension of historical trajectory and comparison to other QSR leaders who have 40-50% share versus Domino's ~25%. Sandeep clarified guidance extends through 2028 implying 1 point share gain through 2028. Not committing to timeframe past 2028. Goals have historically increased (6,000 to 7,000 to 8,500 stores) as company outperformed assumptions. Competitive closures create additional store opportunity.

Current US retail sales: ~$5 billion; long-term goal: double to ~$10 billionDomino's at ~25% market share; competitors at 40-50% in their categories8,500 store goal remains in place, building towards double retail salesGuidance through 2028 implies 1 point share gain annually through 2028

Peter Saleh · BTIG

What is the performance across income cohorts - specifically younger, lower-income guests? Have delivery-carryout switching patterns changed?

Russell stated Domino's grew all income cohorts in Q4 and full year, contrary to industry narrative of lower-income customer decline. Delivery-carryout overlap remains consistent in mid-teens percentage, indicating these remain separate occasions with distinct customer bases and growth opportunities.

All income cohorts grew in Q4 and full year 2025Delivery-carryout overlap: mid-teens percentage, unchangedDelivery and carryout represent different occasions and customer groups

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q4 U.S. same-store sales hold above 3% given macro slowing — Yes, at +3.7%, but decelerating from Q3's +5.2%. The bar was cleared but the trajectory is down, and management's 2026 guide of 3% (H1-weighted) implicitly concedes the back half will be tougher.

Resolved positively

Stuffed crust mix disclosure — Still no specific mix percentage disclosed in the press release or captured Q&A. Parmesan Stuffed Crust was named as part of the baseline that compounds into 2026, but the actual mix number remains undisclosed three quarters after launch.

Continue monitoring

International comp trajectory — Resolved negatively. Q4 international comps came in at +0.7% ex-FX, below the 1–2% framework and decelerating from Q3's +1.7%. The full-year framework was missed at the international line, and the press release offered no substantive defense.

Resolved negatively

U.S. Company-owned store revenue decline reversal — Worsened. Q4 print of -9.6% YoY accelerated from Q3's -7.2%. Management still has not explained whether this is refranchising-driven or operational deterioration; the divergence from franchise royalty growth (+8.5%) is now wider, not narrower.

Resolved negatively

Initial 2026 framework commentary — Resolved positively in direction, qualitatively. Management formalized a 3% U.S. comp expectation for 2026, articulated the H1/H2 weighting, named 2+ product innovations, and reframed the long-term ambition as doubling retail sales to ~$10B with the 8,500-store goal intact through 2028. No quantitative FY revenue or EPS range, however.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q1 FY2026 U.S. comp lands above 3% despite January weather disruption — Sandeep flagged weather as included in the guide and expected to normalize. A Q1 print below 3% would put the H1-weighted framework at immediate risk and signal that the lap math is harder than management modeled.

International comp recovery from +0.7% — needs to return to the 1–2% range to validate the FY2026 framework. Two consecutive quarters of sub-1% intl comps would force a framework revision and revive the DPE/Japan bear case.

U.S. Company-owned store revenue line item — three consecutive quarters of accelerating decline (-7.2% → -9.6%). Either Q1 brings a refranchising disclosure that explains the trend, or this becomes an operational red flag deserving its own narrative.

Delivery comp trajectory above the +1.0% FY base — Q4 at +1.6% suggests stabilization. Sustained delivery comps in the +2–3% range would validate the "not yet at fair share on aggregators" thesis; flat-to-down delivery comps would undermine it.

First quantitative FY2026 framework disclosure in the press release — the Q4 print used Q&A to communicate the 3% guide. A formalized press-release framework on the Q1 call (revenue range, EPS range, or operating income growth target) would be a discipline upgrade; continued reliance on Q&A-only disclosure is a notable governance posture worth tracking.

Sources

Domino's Pizza, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release (SEC 8-K Exhibit 99.1), filed February 23, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1286681/000119312526062313/dpz-ex99_1.htm
Q4 2025 earnings call Q&A excerpts (extracted; full transcript not available for prepared-remarks analysis)

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