DTE · Q1 2026 Earnings

Q: How much of the $5 billion Google investment would fall into the current five-year capital spending plan, and when would DTE update its capital spending plan to include Google?

Some renewables and storage would fall within the five-year plan, with base load generation ramping toward the back end and beyond. The 700 MW gas plant would mostly or completely fall beyond the forecast period, though site preparation and purchases would straddle the five-year window. DTE expects regulatory approval in early September and plans to provide detailed timing at EEI conference.

Q: Interest in Vantage pursuing similar bring-your-own-generation opportunities with other hyperscalers in PGM or other regions, and what infrastructure DTE needs to build to support Google's full 1 GW ramp by end of 2028?

DTE sees potential for Vantage to serve other hyperscalers in different jurisdictions; the current counterparty (Google) has expressed interest beyond the first location. To support Google's full ramp, DTE will build renewables, battery storage, and leverage demand response incorporated in the contract. Assets will fold into five-year plan before base load generation buildout.

Q: Update on Michigan governor's race and candidates' positions on affordability and data centers?

Four candidates identified: Republicans John James and Perry Johnson (neck and neck), Democrat Jocelyn Benson, and independent Mike Duggan. All candidates support data centers. DTE has shared messaging on affordability (5% bill growth vs. 26% national average, 1.8% share of wallet vs. 2% national), reliability performance, and economic development benefits. Conversations described as constructive with all candidates.

Bullish

DTE Energy

Reported April 30, 2026

30-second summary

DTE posted Q1 FY2026 operating EPS of $1.95 vs. $2.10 in Q1 2025, with the YoY variance explained by Q1 2025 tax timing ($67M favorable from renewable project in-service timing) and expected energy trading timing reversals that management has signaled will reverse over the balance of the year. FY2026 guidance was reaffirmed at $7.59–$7.73 and management explicitly stated they remain "well positioned to achieve the high end." The Google contract was sized at ~$5B of incremental generation and storage investment through 2032, with another 2 GW in advanced discussions and 3–4 GW behind that. Management is targeting a September 10 regulatory order on Google, has returned the high-end-of-guidance confidence anchor to RNG tax credits, and is now publicly framing the Oracle ramp as the mechanism to defer the next rate case to at least 2028.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$1.95

-3.9% vs est.

Key financials

Q1 FY2026

Metric	Q1 FY2026	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
EPS	$1.95	—	$2.25	-13.3%

Guidance

DTE Energy reaffirmed full-year 2026 operating EPS guidance of $7.59–$7.73 with confident tone on upside from tax credits and data center opportunities.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Operating EPS ($7.59 - $7.73)

Other KPIs

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Operating Earnings Per Share	$1.95
DTE Electric Customers	2.3 million
DTE Gas Customers	1.4 million
Capital Investment (Q1)	$1.2 billion
2026 Full-Year Capital Investment Guidance	$6.0 billion
Power Restoration Time (99% of customers)	<48 hours
Outages vs Historical Similar Events	60% fewer
2026 Operating EPS Guidance	$7.59 - $7.73

Management tone

Q4 FY2024 (incremental utility growth) → Q2 FY2025 (data center pipeline late-stage, "all upside") → Q3 FY2025 (first 1.4 GW deal signed, capex stepped up, portfolio re-shaped around utility earnings) → Q1 FY2026 (Google sized at $5B, rate case deferral mechanism articulated, RNG credits re-emphasized as high-end anchor).

The data center thesis has progressed from optionality (Q2 FY2025) to executed deal (Q3 FY2025) to structural rate-case deferral mechanism (Q1 FY2026). This quarter, management said "If the Oracle load ramp comes online by the end of 2027, and we receive other required regulatory approvals, we will refrain from filing another rate request until at least 2028…the mechanism that we're proposing covers it…that could very well give us the opportunity to push out cases even further." The data centers were a growth story two quarters ago; they are now also the affordability-and-rate-case story. This is a meaningful structural reframing because it converts hyperscaler load from a controversial capex event into the customer-protection mechanism, and it explains why DTE is so confident on the regulatory pathway.

The tax credit confidence anchor has rotated back to RNG. In Q2 FY2025 it was RNG credit extension through 2029; in Q3 FY2025 it was 45Z credits, repeated three times on the call; this quarter it has returned to RNG — "We are confident we will reach the high end of our guidance range in each year driven by RNG tax credits and the flexibility they provide." The high-end-of-range posture is durable across three quarters; the underlying mechanism cited has cycled back to its earlier anchor. Investors should read this as continued reliance on the RNG credit lever, with the 45Z emphasis last quarter looking more like a temporary supplement than a permanent rotation.

Regulatory tone shifted from "pending and uncertain" to operationally tracked. A quarter ago the Google deal was signed but the approval pathway was largely outside the disclosure. This quarter management gave the specific date: "We're expecting to get an order in the September timeframe, September 10th, to be issued by September 10th…The commission indicated that they're going to read the order, so there won't be a PSD." The political validation — all four leading Michigan gubernatorial candidates supportive of data centers per the Q&A — is the second leg. This is the most assertive regulatory posture DTE has taken on a major contract approval in recent memory.

Grid reliability narrative graduated from steady progress to quantified transformation. "From 2023 to 2025, we achieved a 90% improvement in outage duration, reflecting both stronger system performance and faster restoration." Combined with the 2025 full-year 99.9% 48-hour restoration stat and "best all-weather SADI performance in nearly 20 years," the reliability story is no longer aspirational. This matters because it is the operational defense of the IRM ($800M target by 2030) and continued rate base growth in front of a politically attentive commission.

Management was notably evasive on contract economics at scale. The Bank of America exchange on the 5–6 GW hyperscaler pipeline produced "all agreements are bespoke and function of hyperscaler size, specific asset interests, and location" with "all options open" on demand response and pricing — no quantification. This is the cleanest tell that pricing at scale is still being figured out, and the bull case implicitly assumes Google-like economics extend to the next 4–8 GW.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Data center acceleration as primary growth driver and rate case extension mechanismGrid modernization delivering quantifiable reliability gains (90% outage duration reduction)Affordability protection via data center margin capture and multi-year rate case deferralDisciplined capital execution with high equity of investment focus on customer benefitRegulatory tailwinds from clean energy transition and infrastructure audit alignmentBalance sheet discipline maintaining investment-grade ratings while funding 5-year capex expansion

Risks management surfaced:

Data center ramp timing and execution risk (Oracle delay option and Google construction schedule)Regulatory approval risk (NPSC approval of Google contract, though framed as low-risk)Customer concentration risk (40% of load from data centers once fully ramped)Hyperscaler credit and collateral requirements (protections in place but acknowledged as material counterparty risk)RNG tax credit rule changes pending DOE/Treasury guidance

Q&A highlights

Paul Freeman · Redenberg

How much of the $5 billion Google investment would fall into the current five-year capital spending plan, and when would DTE update its capital spending plan to include Google?

Some renewables and storage would fall within the five-year plan, with base load generation ramping toward the back end and beyond. The 700 MW gas plant would mostly or completely fall beyond the forecast period, though site preparation and purchases would straddle the five-year window. DTE expects regulatory approval in early September and plans to provide detailed timing at EEI conference.

$5 billion Google investment700 MW gas plantRegulatory order expected early SeptemberUpdates planned for EEI conference

Anthony Croteau · Mizuho

Interest in Vantage pursuing similar bring-your-own-generation opportunities with other hyperscalers in PGM or other regions, and what infrastructure DTE needs to build to support Google's full 1 GW ramp by end of 2028?

DTE sees potential for Vantage to serve other hyperscalers in different jurisdictions; the current counterparty (Google) has expressed interest beyond the first location. To support Google's full ramp, DTE will build renewables, battery storage, and leverage demand response incorporated in the contract. Assets will fold into five-year plan before base load generation buildout.

1 gigawatt Google capacity target by end of 2028Renewables, battery storage, and demand response componentsAssets folding into five-year plan updateBase load generation to be built after IRP solidification

Paul Freeman · Redenberg

Update on Michigan governor's race and candidates' positions on affordability and data centers?

Four candidates identified: Republicans John James and Perry Johnson (neck and neck), Democrat Jocelyn Benson, and independent Mike Duggan. All candidates support data centers. DTE has shared messaging on affordability (5% bill growth vs. 26% national average, 1.8% share of wallet vs. 2% national), reliability performance, and economic development benefits. Conversations described as constructive with all candidates.

5% bill growth vs. 26% national average1.8% share of wallet vs. 2% nationalBest reliability performance in 20 years (2020)All four candidates support data centers

Answers to last quarter's watch list

3 GW advanced-stage deal closure — Management updated the pipeline to "roughly two gigawatts of incremental load with additional projects in our pipeline that could add another three to four gigawatts over time," and indicated interest in "solidifying deals before year-end." No new deals signed this quarter, but the pipeline framing was reiterated and the Google ramp ($5B through 2032) was sized for the first time. Status: Continue monitoring.

FY2026 operating EPS landing within $7.59–$7.73 vs. signaled bias to the high end — Q1 operating EPS of $1.95 came in below Q1 2025's $2.10, with timing items (tax timing and energy trading shaping) explaining the variance. Management reaffirmed the range and continues to point to the high end, now anchored on RNG tax credits rather than 45Z. Status: Continue monitoring.

DTE Vantage 2030 trajectory disclosure — No new quantification of the 45V offset or Vantage trajectory was disclosed on the print, though management discussed a ~350 MW behind-the-meter project in late-stage negotiations. The Q3 FY2025 framing of Vantage flat-to-2025 by 2030 with pipeline offsetting 45V roll-off was not revisited. Status: Continue monitoring.

MPSC electric rate case order — Substantially addressed this quarter. February MPSC rate order is now supporting $400M of Q1 distribution investment. Current pending electric case parameters disclosed: 10.25% ROE ask, 51% equity layer, IRM target growing to $800M by 2030 (with 2026 and 2027 already approved). Forward focus also includes the September 10 Google contract order and the prospective deferral of the next rate case to at least 2028 via the Oracle margin capture mechanism. Status: Resolved — case is in flight with parameters disclosed.

FFO-to-debt at 15% — Management reiterated the ~15% FFO-to-debt target and $500–$600M annual equity issuance plan for 2026–2028 (with similar levels through 2030), and noted over $350M priced via forward sale agreements to settle later this year. Status: On track.

CCGT timing for the 3 GW pipeline — Management acknowledged a 700 MW gas plant tied to Google straddles the five-year plan with site prep and some purchases in-period, but did not directly quantify CCGT procurement lead time or whether additional turbine capacity is secured. The Mizuho exchange suggested base load generation buildout follows IRP solidification. Status: Continue monitoring.

What to watch into next quarter

September 10 MPSC order on the Google contract — management set this date publicly. An on-time, clean order de-risks the entire data center thesis and unlocks the rate-case-deferral mechanism. Slippage past September or a conditioned order would dent the bullish posture management has built around this date.

2 GW advanced-stage deal "solidified before year-end" — management said they're "interested in solidifying deals before year-end." A signed second hyperscaler agreement before year-end would validate the 5–9 GW pipeline framing; absence of any signing through Q3 would suggest the pipeline is slower to convert than messaged.

FY2026 operating EPS trajectory after Q1 — Q1 came in below the prior-year quarter on identified timing items. Watch whether the expected Q2–Q4 reversals materialize and whether the high-end-of-range posture begins to erode in tone, particularly given the return to RNG tax credits as the high-end anchor.

Capital plan refresh at EEI conference — management explicitly said detailed Google capital timing would be provided at EEI. Watch whether the five-year plan steps up and whether the 2 GW in advanced discussions gets incorporated, formalizing the "upside" language into committed capex.

Hyperscaler contract economics at scale — the Bank of America exchange exposed forward-pricing ambiguity. Any concrete disclosure on demand response economics, contract pricing, or asset cost allocation for non-Google hyperscalers would calibrate whether 5–9 GW carries Google-like returns or compresses.

Customer load concentration risk — management acknowledged data centers as a major share of load at full ramp. Watch for any disclosure on collateral arrangements, take-or-pay terms, or counterparty credit safeguards beyond the high-level "protections in place" framing.

Sources

DTE Energy Q1 FY2026 Press Release, Exhibit 99.1 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/936340/000093634026000079/exhibit991-33126.htm
DTE Energy Q1 FY2026 earnings call commentary and Q&A (analyst exchanges with Ladenburg Thalmann, Mizuho, Bank of America)

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