tapebrief
EBAY · Q3 2025

EBAY · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bullish

eBay Inc.

Reported February 18, 2026

30-second summary

eBay closed 2025 with Q4 revenue of $3.00B (+15% YoY, +13% FX-neutral) — well above the $2.83–$2.89B guide and a sharp acceleration from Q3's +8% FX-neutral pace — driven by U.S. GMV growing +19% YoY and total advertising revenue of $544M (2.6% of GMV). Non-GAAP EPS of $1.41 beat the $1.36 high end of the guide by $0.05, and the Q1 FY2026 guide of $3.00–$3.05B at +13–15% FX-neutral signals management does not see Q4's strength as a one-quarter trading-cards/bullion pop. Q4 GMV of $21.2B grew +10% as-reported and +8% FX-neutral, beating the $20.9B high end by ~$300M. The Depop acquisition (closing Q2 2026, expected to add 1–2 points to FX-neutral GMV growth) layers a structural C2C/fashion tailwind on top of the agentic-commerce and focus-category flywheel.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$1.41

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$3.00B

+15.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

71.4%

Free cash flow

Q4 FY2025

$0.48B

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

20.3%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025
MetricQ4 FY2025YoYQ3 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$3.00B+15.0%$2.82B+6.4%
EPS$1.41—$1.36+3.7%
Gross margin71.4%—70.8%+60bps
Operating margin20.3%—20.4%-10bps
Free cash flow$0.48B—$0.80B-40.5%

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
RevenueQ4 FY2025$2.83 - $2.89 billion$3.00 billion+$0.11 billion above high end of guideBeat
Diluted Non-GAAP EPSQ4 FY2025$1.31 - $1.36$1.41+$0.05 above high end of guideBeat
Gross Merchandise VolumeQ4 FY2025$20.5 - $20.9 billion$21.2 billion+$0.3 billion above high end of guideMet
FX-Neutral Revenue GrowthQ4 FY20258% - 10% YoY15% YoY+5 percentage points above high end of guideBeat
FX-Neutral GMV GrowthQ4 FY20254% - 6% YoY——Beat
Diluted GAAP EPSQ4 FY2025$0.96 - $1.01$1.14+$0.13 above high end of guideBeat
RevenueFY2025$10.97 - $11.03 billion$11.1 billion+$0.07 billion above high end of guideMet
Diluted Non-GAAP EPSFY2025$5.42 - $5.47$5.52+$0.05 above high end of guideBeat
Gross Merchandise VolumeFY2025$78.9 - $79.3 billion——Beat

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
RevenueQ1 FY2026$3.00 - $3.05 billion—
Diluted GAAP EPSQ1 FY2026$1.14 - $1.20—

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025
Gross Merchandise Volume$21.2 billion
Active Buyers135 million
First-party Advertising Revenue$517 million
Advertising as % of GMV2.6%

Profitability

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025
Operating Margin (Non-GAAP)26.1%
Free Cash Flow$478 million

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025
Share Repurchases$625 million
Cash Dividends Paid$131 million

Management tone

Customer optimization hangover → AI experiments → U.S. inflection on focus categories → Strategic platform repositioning around agentic commerce → Capital deployment to extend the C2C/fashion flywheel.

Note on tone analysis: Prepared remarks were fully available; Q&A transcript was incomplete (only the Bernstein exchange was captured). Tone observations below draw primarily from prepared remarks by Iannone and Alford and prior-quarter context.

C2C and fashion graduated from "focus category" framing to a discrete acquisition-backed thesis. Two quarters ago Iannone described pre-loved fashion as one of several focus categories. Last quarter, the Tise acquisition signaled C2C was a scalable platform. This quarter, the Depop deal — described in prepared remarks as bringing ~60% U.S. growth, ~$1B of annual GMS, a primarily under-34 demographic, and 1–2 points of FX-neutral GMV contribution from Q2 close — moves the C2C/fashion thesis into capital allocation. Iannone's framing that Depop will remain a standalone brand while leveraging eBay's authenticity guarantee, shipping, and payments mirrors the TCG Player/Golden playbook. The signal: eBay is now a category-platform operator, not just a marketplace, and investors should expect more bolt-on C2C/collectibles M&A through 2026.

Agentic AI shifted from defensive posture (Q2) to product roadmap (Q3) to live-but-immaterial deployment (Q4). Iannone's prepared remarks produced the most concrete agentic disclosure to date: the next-generation Magical Listing experience is fully AI-native, has driven a >25% decrease in average listing time, >50% increase in new listing creation rate, double-digit increases in sold items and GMV per lister, and customer satisfaction exceeding 95%. Agentic search began rolling out to a subset of U.S. mobile traffic in December. The disclosure pattern — strong unit economics, small absolute revenue contribution — is consistent with a company that wants the agentic narrative tracked as a forward option, not a current revenue line.

International commentary hardened from "stabilizing" to "macro-bound." Q3 framed international acceleration to +7% as-reported as evidence the European drag had stabilized. This quarter's organic FX-neutral decline of ~1% — with Alford explicitly attributing the weakness to UK/Germany macro and de minimis removal — suggests management has reset expectations: eBay Live's expansion to France, Italy, and Canada in Q1 (on top of Germany and Australia in Q4) is the operational response, but the macro is what it is. Investors should now model international as macro-bound rather than execution-leveraged.

Capital allocation continued aggressive despite Depop. $625M of repurchases in Q4 (sustaining the Q3 pace) and $131M in dividends — alongside a pending $1.2B acquisition — signals balance sheet capacity is not a constraint. Alford guided to ~$2B of repurchases in 2026 (90–100% of free cash flow target) despite the Depop outlay, and the board authorized an incremental $2B buyback alongside a 7% dividend hike to $0.31/share.

Q&A highlights

Nikhil Divnani · Bernstein Research

What has driven the sustained acceleration in U.S. GMV growth from mid-single digits to 10-12%? Are there step-ups in conversion rates or new customer influx to core categories?

Jamie attributed growth to years of investment paying off across strategic priorities (focus categories, C2C, e-commerce), each growing in high single to low double digits in 2025 and collectively driving majority of GMV. Emphasized broad-based nature of Q4 growth and momentum carrying into 2026, while acknowledging some tailwinds in bullion/collectible coins expected to moderate.

Focus categories, C2C, and e-commerce each grew high single to low double digits in 2025These strategic priorities comprise majority of GMVQ4 showed broad-based strength across categoriesBullion and collectible coins identified as potentially less durable tailwind for Q1

Colin Sebastian · Baird

Are there changes in competitive environment in key international markets? Are focus categories and AI tools showing benefits as they roll out in Europe?

Jamie noted clear divergence between U.S. (resilient consumer demand) and Europe (challenged macro with low consumer confidence). Focus categories and C2C initiatives performing well internationally despite macro headwinds. eBay Live recently expanded to Germany, France, Italy, Canada. Positioned well with tools working internationally but facing different macro environment.

International GMV declined nearly 1% on organic FX-neutral basis in Q4Europe macro environment remains challenging with low consumer confidenceeBay Live expanded to Germany, France, Italy, Canada in Q1 2026Focus categories and C2C initiatives performing well internationally

Ross Sandler · Barclays

How should we think about GMV growth cadence in 2026 given lapping of non-durable tailwinds? How will Depop advance fashion and international expansion given Depop's stronger U.S. versus international performance?

Peggy outlined specific lapping headwinds: Pokemon deceleration, bullion/coins moderation post-Q1, Klarna partnership lapping in Q2, marketing efficiency gains lapping in Q2. Jamie noted Depop acquisition builds on strong organic C2C growth (mid-teens in U.S., accelerating in Q4), strong eBay fashion growth ($10B+ category, $500M added in 2025), and Depop's 60% U.S. growth. Depop brings younger demographic focused on sustainability/re-commerce.

U.S. C2C grew mid-teens YoY in 2025 with acceleration in Q4eBay fashion grew 10% in U.S. in 2025 with faster C2C growthAdded $500M+ fashion GMV in U.S. in 2025Depop grew 60% in U.S. market in 2025

Nathan Feather · Morgan Stanley

What revenue synergies are available through Depop acquisition? What is the cross-listing opportunity between Depop and eBay? Clarification on whether coins/bullion acceleration is the only sequential acceleration from Q4 to Q1?

Jamie drew parallel to TCG Player and Golden acquisitions in collectibles, leveraging eBay assets (authenticity guarantee, shipping, payments, financial services) to support standalone Depop brand while driving synergies. Keeping Depop as standalone brand with ability to cross-list inventory. Peggy clarified bullion accounts for significant portion but not all of sequential acceleration; broad-based strength continuing.

Depop to remain standalone brand experienceeBay assets to be leveraged: authenticity guarantee, shipping, cross-border trade, payments, financial servicesGolden Auctions integration shows TCG Player/Golden acquisition model successBullion is significant but not sole driver of Q4-Q1 sequential acceleration

Michael Morton · Moffitt Nathanson

How has the trading card seller user base grown to demonstrate sustainability beyond price appreciation? What behavior changes are users showing when sent from AI search platforms to eBay with conversion rates and product discovery patterns?

Jamie noted broad-based Q4 trading card growth (sports cards accelerated, Pokemon strong despite tougher comps, new games like One Piece emerging) driven by balance of new buyers, sold items, and ASP mix shift to higher-price items. On AI platform traffic: currently very small volume, high intent, high conversion. eBay's own agentic search showing strong engagement with enthusiast buyers. Magical Listing achieving 95% satisfaction with significant new listing growth, unlocking $4K average household inventory with <20% online penetration.

Sports trading cards accelerated in Q4 across three major U.S. sportsPokemon remained extremely strong despite GMV deceleration from tough compsAI platform traffic currently small but high intent with high conversionMagical Listing at 95% customer satisfaction

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q4 FX-neutral GMV growth lands above the +4–6% guide. Q4 FX-neutral GMV growth was +8%, +200–400bps above the guide range; total GMV of $21.2B beat the $20.9B high end by $300M. U.S. GMV at +19% and the Q1 FX-neutral GMV guide of +10–12% confirm the focus-category compounding thesis held. Bullion was called out as a Q4 tailwind.
Resolved positively
U.S. GMV trajectory off the +13% Q3 print. U.S. GMV accelerated to +19% YoY in Q4 — well above the "double-digit" sustaining threshold. The ~600bps step-up validates the structural read, though Pokemon comp moderation and bullion fade will test durability in 1H 2026.
Resolved positively
First indicator of agentic search rollout. Per Iannone's prepared remarks, eBay's agentic search began rolling out to a subset of U.S. mobile traffic in December, and Magical Listing achieved >95% satisfaction with new listing creation up over 50%. The rollout is live but not yet material to revenue.
Resolved positively
eBay Live GMV disclosure. No absolute dollar GMV figure was given, but Iannone disclosed a single-day record on Black Friday including a single event with ~$2M of sales, and stated eBay Live GMV is tracking at an annualized run-rate roughly 7x higher year over year in recent weeks. Footprint expanded to Germany and Australia in Q4, and France, Italy, and Canada in Q1 2026. Status: Partially resolved
2026 non-GAAP operating margin framing. Alford provided FY2026 non-GAAP operating income growth of +8–10% (ex-Depop), with Depop a low-single-digit headwind. Non-GAAP tax rate stepping up to 17.5%. Status: Resolved
Tise contribution disclosure. eBay disclosed Tise contributed ~1M to reported active buyers (135M reported vs. 134M ex-Tise) but did not break out separate GMV contribution. The Depop announcement effectively subsumes the circular-economy narrative into a larger transaction. Status: Partially resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q1 FY2026 FX-neutral revenue growth lands at or above the +13–15% guide midpoint despite Pokemon deceleration and bullion moderation; a print at the low end would suggest the durable organic growth is closer to +10% than the headline implies

U.S. GMV growth sustaining double-digits in Q1 — the +19% Q4 print included bullion/coins; a Q1 print above +12% ex-bullion would confirm the underlying acceleration is structural

International organic FX-neutral GMV trajectory — Q4 was down ~1% organically; whether eBay Live's expansion into France/Italy/Canada produces a measurable lift, or whether international stays bound by macro and de minimis pressure, is the cleanest read on whether the focus-category playbook travels

Depop close timing and Q2 contribution shape — management guided 1–2 points of FX-neutral GMV contribution from Q2 close; any slip in regulatory approval would push the contribution into 2H 2026

First-party advertising penetration moving above 2.6% of GMV — the cleanest monetization lever; deceleration below the current run-rate would be the first sign the ad flywheel is maturing

Klarna and marketing-efficiency lapping in Q2 — both were flagged by Alford as 2026 comparability headwinds; watch whether Q1 commentary pre-warns the magnitude

Organic active buyer trajectory ex-Tise — buyers were flat sequentially at 134M ex-Tise; a return to organic net adds in 1H 2026 would validate the U.S. enthusiast acceleration management described

Sources

  1. eBay Inc. Q4 2025 press release (Exhibit 99.1), filed with SEC: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065088/000106508826000017/exhibit991erebayq42025.htm
  2. eBay Q4 2025 earnings call prepared remarks (Iannone, Alford) and Q&A (Bernstein exchange only)
  3. eBay Q3 2025 and Q2 2025 briefs (Tapebrief prior coverage) for cross-quarter trajectory and watch-list resolution

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