tapebrief
ED · Q3 2025

ED · Q4 2025 Earnings

Neutral

Consolidated Edison

Reported February 19, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: Con Edison delivered FY2025 adjusted EPS of $5.70 — the top of the previously narrowed $5.60–$5.70 band — and issued FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.00–$6.20, implying ~7% midpoint growth. The more consequential disclosures are the new five-year 6–7% adjusted EPS CAGR target and a dollarized capex envelope of $6.6B in 2026, $6.8B in 2027, and $24.3B aggregate across 2028–2030 — the formal answer to the multi-year build-out question we've been tracking since Q2. Q4 revenue of $4.0B grew 8.9% YoY; the story remains a regulated rate-base compounder, now with explicit multi-year guardrails.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$0.89

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$4.00B

+8.9% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

12.2%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025
MetricQ4 FY2025YoYQ3 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$4.00B+8.9%——
EPS$0.89—$1.90-53.2%
Operating margin12.2%———

Guidance

Con Edison met FY2025 guidance and issued FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.00–$6.20 (7% midpoint growth), along with a 6–7% five-year CAGR target and elevated capex plans through 2030.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
Adjusted EPS (Non-GAAP)FY2025$5.60 to $5.70$5.70at high end of guideMet

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
Adjusted EPS (Non-GAAP)FY2026$6.00 to $6.20+5.3% to +8.8%
Five-Year Adjusted EPS CAGR TargetFY20266% to 7%—
Capital InvestmentsFY2026$6,595 million—
Capital InvestmentsFY2027$6,759 million—
Capital InvestmentsFY2028-2030$24,339 million aggregate—

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025YoY
Electric$2.884B+6.1%
Gas$0.923B+16.1%
Steam$0.187B+20.6%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025
Operating Income$487M
Net Interest Expense$313M
Depreciation and Amortization$595M
Purchased Power Costs$670M
2026 Guidance - Adjusted EPS$6.00-$6.20
Five-Year Adjusted EPS CAGR Target6%-7%

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q2 reaffirmation → Q3 low-end raise → Q4 landed at top + dollarized multi-year envelope.

Without a Q4 transcript, the tone read comes from the release framing and what's newly disclosed. Through 2025 the substation build-out was directional language ("eight by the next decade" in 2024, then 14 by 2030 in Q3); this quarter it became a hard number — $6.6B / $6.8B / $24.3B aggregate. That dollarization is the substantive shift: management is no longer talking about capital plans in qualitative terms but committing to an investment slate the market can hold them to. The framing also shifted from prior quarters' resiliency-and-substations emphasis to "managing costs while making the critical investments required for the clean energy transition" — the cost-discipline note is new and signals awareness that a capex acceleration of this size needs an explicit O&M counterbalance to clear regulators and rating agencies.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

FY2025 landing point within the narrowed $5.60–$5.70 band — FY2025 adjusted EPS landed at $5.70, the top of the range. Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.89 was sufficient to lock in the upper bound after nine-month adjusted EPS of $4.82. Status: Resolved positively
First FY2026 EPS guidance with year-end results — FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance issued at $6.00–$6.20, with a midpoint of $6.10 implying ~7% growth off FY2025's $5.70. Anchors expectations cleanly. Status: Resolved positively
Capital plan dollarization for the 14-substation, 2030 build-out — Now formalized: $6,595M in 2026, $6,759M in 2027, and $24,339M aggregate across 2028–2030, for ~$37.7B through 2030. This is the explicit multi-year envelope the prior briefs were waiting on. Status: Resolved positively
CECONY next rate case timing — Not called out on the year-end print. The capex envelope assumes regulatory recovery but no new filing was specified. Status: Continue monitoring
Quantified electrification demand update — The release references customers continuing "to electrify their homes, businesses and vehicles" but doesn't refresh the >25% above-traditional capacity figure. Status: Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 2026 trajectory toward $6.00–$6.20 — first read on whether the 7% midpoint growth path is on track; watch the Q1 adjusted EPS print against the typical seasonal share of FY earnings.

CECONY rate case filing — the $6.6B 2026 capex slate is contingent on continued regulatory recovery; a new filing is the natural next step and the largest unaddressed question on the print.

Financing plan for the $37.7B 2026–2030 capex envelope — watch for equity issuance size, timing, and debt mix commentary; the scale of the build-out makes the financing structure a first-order driver of EPS accretion versus dilution.

Bridge between FY2026 guide ($6.10 midpoint, +7%) and the 6–7% five-year CAGR — confirm whether 7% is meant as the run rate or the high end of the multi-year envelope; the two framings have different implications for FY2027 expectations.

Quantified electrification demand refresh — the >25%-above-traditional capacity datapoint is now two years old; watch the 2025 strategy update or Q1 commentary for a current figure that validates the capex acceleration.

Sources

  1. Consolidated Edison Q4 2025 / FY2025 press release (Exhibit 99.1), filed February 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1047862/000104786226000028/ed-20251231xexx991.htm
  2. Consolidated Edison Q3 2025 press release (Exhibit 99.1), filed November 6, 2025 — prior-guide baseline.
  3. Consolidated Edison 2024 Clean Energy Future strategy presentation — multi-year capex framing context.

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