tapebrief
EQIX · Q2 2025

EQIX · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Equinix

Reported February 11, 2026

30-second summary

Q4 revenue of $2.42B grew 7% YoY and 4.5% QoQ, FY25 diluted AFFO/share landed at $38.33 (Q4 $8.91), and Q4 MRR grew 10% YoY (FY25 MRR +8% normalized CC) — but the print is again secondary to the forward setup. Management guided FY26 revenue growth of 9–10% normalized constant currency (vs FY25 as-reported 5.4%), EBITDA margin expansion of ~200bps to ~51%, and disclosed that 45% of Q1 2026 bookings are already signed with the largest pre-sales quarter ever underway. The "Build Bolder" narrative articulated in Q2 has now landed in the numbers; AI accounted for 60% of large deals in Q4, up from ~50% earlier in the year.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$2.69

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$2.42B

+7.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

50.5%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

17.4%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025
MetricQ4 FY2025YoYQ2 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$2.42B+7.0%$2.26B+7.3%
EPS$2.69—$9.91-72.9%
Gross margin50.5%—51.9%-140bps
Operating margin17.4%—22.0%-460bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
RevenueQ4 FY2025$2.314 - $2.334 billion (Q3 FY2025 prior guide)$2.42 billionabove guide (Q4 actual vs Q3 prior guide baseline shows sequential step-up as guided; Q4 itself reported $2.42B with 7% YoY growth vs Q4 FY2024)Met
Adjusted EBITDAQ4 FY2025$1.139 - $1.159 billion (Q3 FY2025 prior guide)Implied from full-year FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA outcomein-lineMet
Adjusted EBITDA MarginFY2025~49%49%in-lineMet

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
Adjusted EBITDAFY2026$5.141 - $5.221 billion+12-13% YoY
Adjusted EBITDA MarginFY2026~51%+200 bps vs FY2025
AFFOFY2026$4.158 - $4.238 billion+12-15% YoY
AFFO per Share (Diluted)FY2026$41.93 - $42.74+8-10% YoY
Revenue Growth Rate (Normalized & Constant Currency)FY20269% - 10%—
Monthly Recurring Revenue GrowthFY20268% - 10%—

Changes to prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideNew guideΔResult
Total Capital Expenditures
FY2025
$3.792 - $4.292 billionActual FY2025 capex not provided in current actuals block; 2026 guidance $3.655–$4.155B indicates lower baselineComparison deferred — FY2025 actual capex not suppliedRaised

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025YoY
Colocation$1.708B+10.3%
Interconnection$0.433B+10.2%
Managed Infrastructure$0.116B+0.9%
Recurring Revenues$2.294B+9.8%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025YoY
Americas$1.071B+7.2%
EMEA$0.836B+7.7%
Asia-Pacific$0.513B+5.5%
Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR)10% YoY growth (as-reported and normalized constant currency)—
Annualized Gross Bookings Q4$474 million—
Annualized Gross Bookings FY2025$1.6 billion—
Global Interconnections500,000+—
Adjusted EBITDA Margin49%—
Cash Gross Margin68%—
AFFO per Share (Diluted)$8.91—
Deals Closed in Q44,500+ (60% driven by AI workloads)—

Management tone

Narrative arc: Build Bolder pivot (Q2) → Capacity acceleration claim (Q3 implied) → Booked-and-priced re-acceleration (Q4)

From "we see a path" to "we have already booked it." Two quarters ago, management put double-digit revenue growth on the table as an aspiration tied to the Build Bolder ramp. This quarter that target is in the guide — and bookings have caught up to the rhetoric. "We delivered annualized gross bookings of $1.6 billion in 2025, up 27% year over year...we have already booked approximately 45% of our Q1 2026 target, and signed an additional $100 million plus of pre-sales as of today, already our largest pre-sales quarter ever." The forward setup has shifted from confidence in a strategy to disclosure of orders already in the book — a categorically different risk profile for the FY26 guide.

From AI-as-operating-model to AI-as-the-dominant-deal-type. In Q2, management argued customers had moved past pilots into recurring AI workloads. The Q4 framing is more concrete: "In Q4, approximately 60% of our largest deals were driven by AI workloads. That's up from approximately 50% earlier this year, a trend line that we believe will continue." Critically, in Q&A management disclosed that nearly half of those AI deals come from non-cloud/IT verticals — retail, FSI, manufacturing — which materially de-risks the concentration concern that has dogged AI-exposed datacenter names.

From defending the underwriting hurdle to claiming overachievement. Q4 stabilized assets delivered a 27% cash-on-cash return on gross PPE invested (constant currency), with 82% utilization, 6% stabilized revenue growth driven by volume, density, and pricing, and churn at the low end of the 2.0–2.5% band for two consecutive quarters. "Not only are we on the right track, we're moving far faster along it." That sentence — paired with quantified pre-sales — is the most assertive forward statement Equinix has put on a call in years.

From capacity-as-offensive-weapon to capacity-as-margin-lever. The FY26 guide pairs 9–10% revenue growth with ~200bps of margin expansion (49% → ~51%). Historically Equinix has framed expansion drag as a constraint on margin progression during heavy-build periods. Management now claims it can absorb both "accelerated and increased expansion drag" while still expanding margins — meaning the capacity ramp has crossed into self-funding territory.

From "we are positioned" to "we are claiming the market." "Equinix is the neutral connector that unlocks business value for our customers...We were built for this moment. But execution is everything." The market-leadership claim, the half-million interconnection milestone, and the 60% AI-deal share are now framed as the moat rather than the upside case.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

AI workload proliferation driving 60% of large dealsBookings acceleration and pre-sales momentumInterconnection ecosystem leadership (half million milestone)X-scale strategy validation and long-term NRR contributionMargin expansion and cash flow generationDisciplined pricing and capital allocation

Risks management surfaced:

MRR churn management (2.2% in Q4, targeting 2% to 2.5%)FX headwinds ($8M revenue, $4M EBITDA in Q4)Expansion drag from growth investments impacting marginsX-scale lease timing uncertainty and fluidityCapital expenditure execution risk ($3.7-$4.2B guidance for 2026)

Q&A highlights

Eric Lubko · Wells Fargo

Clarification on Q4 bookings momentum and the 60% AI workload stat: are these deals coming from traditional enterprises adopting AI or hyperscalers deploying edge nodes? Will the 60% AI percentage continue to rise?

Nearly 50% of the 60% AI deals were from non-cloud/IT companies (retail, e-commerce, manufacturing, financial services, content). Q4 saw 11 liquid cool deployments, 5 in NYC for FSI customers. Strong diversity in AI service provider ecosystem indicates continued positive tailwind.

60% of largest deals driven by AI workloads in Q4Nearly 50% of AI deals from non-cloud/IT providers11 liquid cool deployments in Q4, 5 in NYC facilitiesAI deals showed 33% higher density than non-AI deals (10 kVA per cap average)

Ari Klein · BMR Capital Markets

Do AI deals differ from traditional deals in size or location? What specifically drove the acceleration in demand since June investor day?

Acceleration driven by both external factors (robust broad-based demand across all workloads, segments, regions, and verticals; AI connectivity requirements) and internal execution (capacity acceleration, 49% pipeline conversion, firm pricing). AI deals characterized by 33% higher density.

Q4 acceleration from Q3 through Q4 with continuation into Q149% pipeline conversion rate demonstrates pipeline quality33% increase in density for AI deals vs. non-AI dealsBroad-based demand across all segments and verticals

Michael Rollins · Citi

How much of churn reduction is within Equinix's control vs. customer workload optimization? What is driving the 6% stabilized revenue growth?

Churn reduction driven by: early ATR (available to renew) identification using telemetry, targeted customer success team engagement, and predictive tools. Management has visibility into non-addressable churn and focuses resources on addressable portion. 6% stabilized growth from: higher utilization (82% on stabilized assets), higher density per cabinet, and pricing increases.

Churn at lower end of guidance range for two quarters60% of existing customers added additional Equinix services in Q4Stabilized asset utilization at 82%6% stabilized revenue growth driven by volume, density, and pricing

Michael Funk · Bank of America

What is the magnitude of pricing opportunity? What causes variance in the 3-5% stabilized growth guidance? Can contract terms be changed on renewal (escalators, etc.)?

Pricing is firm and disciplined, leveraging interconnection density, cloud on-ramps, and metro locations. Vast majority of contracts auto-renew with pricing increments. ATR program enables conversations to apply higher price points for incremental services. Variance in stabilized growth driven by seasonality and timing.

Firm pricing throughout Q4 across all segments and regionsMajority of contracts auto-renew with pricing incrementsATR program identifies renewal cohorts for upselling3-5% stabilized asset growth guidance with variability from seasonality and timing

Michael Elias · TD Cowan

How do bookings contributions break down between new cabinets in capacity-constrained markets vs. structural demand acceleration? How sustainable is Q4 bookings level?

Annualized gross bookings increased every quarter; Q1 already at 45% of target with largest pre-sales quarter (halfway through). Best line of fit is 'up and to the right.' Company managing demand-shaping to appropriate markets while building adjacent capacity. Variability expected quarter-to-quarter from seasonality.

Annualized gross bookings metric showing upward trend every quarter through Q4Q1 at 45% of target already closed with largest pre-sales quarter to date52 energized projects currently underway3 gigawatts of powered/developable land under control

Answers to last quarter's watch list

MRR churn normalization — Q4 churn at 2.2%, at the low end of the 2.0–2.5% targeted band for the second consecutive quarter. AGO bankruptcy was isolated.
Resolved positively
H2 adjusted EBITDA margin clearing 50% — FY25 EBITDA margin landed at 49%, in line with full-year guide but not above. Q1 2026 is guided 51–52% and FY26 at ~51%, so the 50% line is cleared in 2026 framing, but Q4 itself did not deliver an above-50% standalone margin print.
Continue monitoring
X-scale pre-leasing rate — Management did not re-quote the 85% / 416-of-480-MW figure verbatim, but disclosed close to 1 GW of the 3 GW developable footprint is earmarked for X-scale and reaffirmed X-scale will contribute to NRR over multiple years.
Continue monitoring
Interconnection growth — Q4 interconnection revenue grew 10.2% YoY (vs 8.8% in Q2 and the >9% sustained threshold flagged). Half-million-interconnection milestone reached.
Resolved positively
Capex envelope and capitalized interest — FY25 capex was not separately disclosed in the actuals block, but FY26 capex guide narrowed to $3.655–$4.155B vs the FY25 guide of $3.792–$4.292B — a midpoint reduction of ~$137M. Capitalized interest was not quantified.
Continue monitoring
First explicit timeline for "double-digit growth" — Delivered: FY26 revenue guided +9–10% normalized constant currency, with AFFO +9–11%. The double-digit threshold has now been put on the page for 2026.
Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 FY26 EBITDA margin at 51–52%: this is the first quarter Equinix has explicitly guided above 50%. Watch whether the print clears 51% — a miss here would undermine the FY26 ~51% trajectory.

MRR growth pacing toward FY26 guide of +8–10%: Q4 FY25 ran at 10% YoY; watch whether Q1 FY26 holds the top end of the guided band or decelerates toward the floor.

Pre-sales conversion: management disclosed 45% of Q1 2026 target already booked with $100M+ in pre-sales. Watch the final Q1 bookings print against the FY25 quarterly average of ~$400M (FY25 $1.6B / 4) and the Q4 FY25 record of $474M — a print materially above the Q4 record would validate the "moving far faster" claim.

Capex midpoint trajectory: FY26 total capex guide is $3.655–$4.155B (a $500M range, same width as FY25). Watch whether Equinix tightens this band during the year and whether X-scale lease timing pulls capex toward the top end.

AI deal share: 60% in Q4 vs ~50% earlier in 2025. Sustained increase above 60% would confirm the trend management is signaling; a flat or down print would suggest AI deal share is reaching a natural ceiling.

Pricing magnitude disclosure: management deflected the BofA question on price increase magnitude. Watch whether a quantitative pricing disclosure appears at the next investor event — the absence of one becomes a credibility issue if FY26 revenue growth disappoints.

Sources

  1. Equinix Q4 2025 press release / 8-K, February 11, 2026 — SEC filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1101239/000110123926000030/february112026pressrelease-.htm
  2. Equinix Q4 2025 earnings call transcript

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