Erie Indemnity

A practical framework for reading ISM Manufacturing PMI as an equity signal — which sectors front-run the cycle, which lag, and how to use the 50 line.

Pulled guidance isn't always a panic signal. Here's how to read withdrawn forecasts, separate prudence from distress, and position before the next print.

Goodwill writedowns aren't just accounting noise. They're a delayed confession that an acquisition failed — and they often signal more pain ahead.

How to use single-name CDS and sector credit spreads to anticipate equity drawdowns — a practical framework prosumer investors can apply each week.

A framework for separating guidance cuts that mark capitulation lows from those that signal the first cut of many. Five tests, with historical patterns to anchor each.

Real yields move equity multiples, but with a lag and unevenly across sectors. Here's a framework for tracking the linkage and spotting which names get hit first.