tapebrief
EXC · Q1 2026

EXC · Q2 2026 Earnings

Neutral

Exelon

Reported July 30, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take. Q2 non-GAAP EPS of $0.43 came in exactly on management's ~15% FY-midpoint phasing target set in Q1, and the press release explicitly frames results as "in line with expectations." YoY, non-GAAP EPS grew from $0.39 to $0.43 (+10%) and revenue grew from $5.43B to $5.97B (+9.9%). YTD non-GAAP EPS of $1.33 (vs. $1.31 prior-year) tracks consistent with the ~15% Q2 phasing plan on the way to the $2.81–$2.91 FY range, which management reaffirmed alongside the 2025–2029 operating EPS CAGR near the top end of 5–7%. With no transcript disclosed, the material questions from Q1 — PECO refiling, the Pennsylvania governor's ROE/equity proposal, PECO's credit review, and any generation-partnership specifics — remain outstanding.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$0.43

-4.4% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$5.97B

+9.9% YoY

+9.9% vs est.

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

16.4%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026
MetricQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoYQ1 FY2026QoQ
Revenue$5.97B$5.43B+10.0%$7.24B-17.6%
EPS$0.43$0.39+10.3%$0.91-52.7%
Operating margin16.4%17.1%-70bps22.2%-580bps

Guidance

Exelon reaffirmed full-year FY2026 operating EPS guidance of $2.81–$2.91 and long-term 5–7% CAGR (targeting top end) following Q2 performance; no quantitative changes to forward guidance.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
Operating EPS (non-GAAP)Q2 FY2026~15% of FY2026 midpoint guidance (implying ~$0.42–$0.44)$0.43in-lineMissed

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Operating EPS (non-GAAP) ($2.81–$2.91), Operating EPS CAGR (near top end of 5–7%)

Segment KPIs

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
ComEd$1.985B$1.836B+8.1%
PECO$1.062B$1B+6.2%
BGE$1.218B$1.029B+18.4%
PHI$1.712B$1.579B+8.4%
ComEd Adjusted Operating Earnings$249 million——
PECO Adjusted Operating Earnings$130 million——
BGE Adjusted Operating Earnings$70 million——
PHI Adjusted Operating Earnings$126 million——

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Adjusted Operating Earnings Guidance FY2026$2.81–$2.91 per share——
Operating EPS CAGR 2025–20295–7% (targeting top end)——
Utility Reliability PerformanceAll utilities top quartile; ComEd and PHI in top decile——
2026 Debt Financing Execution~86% of planned financings executed——

Management tone

No transcript disclosed this quarter; tone analysis unavailable. The press-release framing centered on "The Exelon Promise" (reliability, affordability, long-term value) and flagged storage deployment as a capital-allocation priority alongside traditional utility investment — both continuations of Q1's affordability-and-portfolio-narrowing narrative rather than fresh shifts. The material questions from Q1 (Pennsylvania regulatory posture, PECO credit review, generation-partnership specifics, 2% O&M cap tracking) cannot be evaluated without the call.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q2 FY2026 EPS vs. the ~15% phasing guide (~$0.43) — Q2 non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.43, hitting the phasing target exactly, and the press release explicitly characterized results as "in line with expectations." YTD $1.33 vs. $1.31 PY tracks the FY $2.81–$2.91 range. Status: On track.
PECO refiling timeline or substitute regulatory mechanism — The press release does not disclose a refiling date, a rider mechanism, or any substitute recovery vehicle for PECO. Silence on this front, one full quarter after the withdrawal, keeps the regulatory overhang intact.
Continue monitoring
Any disclosure on the governor's ROE/equity cap proposal — Not addressed in the press-release disclosures. Whether the Pennsylvania PSC can act unilaterally on ROE or requires legislation remains unresolved on the public record.
Not resolved
Initial evidence on the 2% O&M growth cap — The press release does not break out O&M growth against the 2% cap. With Q2 non-GAAP EPS meeting phasing and operating margin at 16.4% (down from Q1's 22.2%, though Q2 is typically a lighter margin quarter), there's no evidence yet the cap is breaking, but no evidence it's holding either.
Continue monitoring
Generation partnership specifics — No signed transmission bid awards, generation MOUs, or partnership disclosures in the press release. The credibility gap from Q1's evasive Q&A on this topic is not closed.
Continue monitoring
PECO credit rating action — The press release does not disclose any rating action or update to PECO's negative outlook / review-for-downgrade status.
Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Q3 FY2026 EPS as the seasonal peak — Q3 is typically the largest earnings quarter for utilities on summer cooling load; the print will be the most important read-through on whether the $2.81–$2.91 range still supports a "midpoint or better" outcome.

PECO refiling or rider disclosure — two consecutive quarters of silence on a replacement recovery mechanism would compound the regulatory drag and elevate the probability of a downgrade action.

Pennsylvania PSC action on ROE / equity cap without legislation — any formal PSC filing, docket, or governor's order that moves the ROE/equity cap proposal forward would materially compress PECO's forward earnings power and force a revision to the 9–10% consolidated ROE assumption.

PECO credit rating decision — the review-for-downgrade cannot sit open indefinitely; a downgrade would raise cost of capital and pressure the $3.4B four-year equity assumption.

First quantified update on the 2% O&M growth cap — a nine-month look at O&M trajectory would confirm whether storm activity, PJM-related costs, or regulatory order absorption is breaking the cap that management explicitly staked out as the funding mechanism for the transmission-heavy capex plan.

Generation partnership or transmission bid award announcements — the credibility gap from Q1 remains; any signed MOU or competitive transmission award would validate management's "exploring contracting and building" framing.

Sources

  1. Exelon Q2 2026 earnings press release (Exhibit 99.1, filed 2026-07-30): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000077/exc-20260730ex991.htm

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