EXC · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Exelon

Reported February 12, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take. Exelon closed 2025 with $2.77 in non-GAAP operating EPS — three cents above the high end of the reaffirmed $2.64–$2.74 range — and used the Q4 print to reset the entire forward setup: a $41.3B four-year capex plan (70% of the $3.3B incremental increase driven by transmission), 7.9% rate base CAGR through 2029, an EPS CAGR now framed as "near the top end" of 5–7% from a 2025 base, and FY2026 EPS guidance of $2.81–$2.91. The Q4 quarter itself was unremarkable — $0.59 non-GAAP EPS on $5.41B revenue — and consistent with management's prior warning that Q3 timing benefits would reverse. The signal is the multi-year reframe, not the quarter.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$0.59

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$5.41B

-1.1% YoY

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$5.41B	-1.1%	$6.71B	-19.3%
EPS	$0.59	—	$0.86	-31.4%

Guidance

FY2025 EPS beat the prior range at $2.77 (vs. $2.64–$2.74 guided); FY2026 guidance raised to $2.81–$2.91 with multi-year capex and rate base growth plans introduced.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Operating EPS (non-GAAP)	FY2025	$2.64–$2.74	$2.77	+$0.03 above high end of guide	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Operating EPS (non-GAAP)	FY2026	$2.81–$2.91	—
Capital Expenditures	FY2026–FY2029	$41.3 billion	—
Rate Base Growth CAGR	FY2025–FY2029	7.9%	—
Equity Issuance	FY2026–FY2029	$3.4 billion total; $850 million annualized	—
2026 Operating EPS as % of FY2026 Guidance Midpoint	Q1 FY2026	approximately 31% of full-year midpoint	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Operating EPS CAGR	FY2025–FY2029	5–7% (2024–2028)	near the top end of 5–7% (2025–2029)	Same range; modestly lifted to 'near top end' and extended forward one year to 2029	Raised

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
ComEd	$1.091B	-39.9%
PECO	$1.172B	+17.4%
BGE	$1.432B	+23.7%
PHI	$1.727B	+14.5%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
ComEd Adjusted Operating Earnings	$252 million
PECO Adjusted Operating Earnings	$162 million
BGE Adjusted Operating Earnings	$181 million
PHI Adjusted Operating Earnings	$171 million
Total Electric Customers	4.18 million
2026 Guidance (Adjusted Operating EPS)	$2.81-$2.91
4-Year Capital Expenditure Plan	$41.3 billion
Rate Base Growth (4-Year)	7.9%

Management tone

Q2 PJM market confrontation → Q3 structural shortfall + 27 GW pipeline operationalized → Q4 transmission-led capex reframe + multi-state legislative push

Capex framing has completed its evolution from rate-base reinvestment to transmission-driven structural build-out. Two quarters ago the story was $38B over 2024–2028, with a $10–15B incremental transmission opportunity sitting outside the plan. This quarter the incremental opportunity has been pulled inside: the new $41.3B 2026–2029 plan is anchored by "approximately 70% or $2.3 billion [of the incremental $3.3B increase] attributable to incremental transmission investments driven by the structural trends that underpin the energy transformation." Rate base CAGR moves from 7.4% (through 2028) to 7.9% (through 2029). This is the formalization investors were watching for in Q3 — and management took it further by also lifting the EPS CAGR signal from "midpoint or better" to "near the top end."

The supply-side advocacy has hardened into a quantified customer-savings case. Q2 framed PJM market failure as "not responding fast enough." Q3 escalated to "significant anticipated shortfall." This quarter management brought third-party validation: "Utility generated power could have saved total PJM customers $9.6 to $20 billion in the 2028-2029 delivery year while reducing the risk of potential future outages from energy shortages by approximately 85%." That's a Charles River Associates number, not an Exelon number — and it reframes utility-owned generation from corporate self-interest to customer advocacy. The political case is now armed with a savings figure regulators can defend in public.

Posture toward independent power producers has softened from protectionist to collaborative. Q2 and Q3 painted IPPs and capacity markets as the problem. This quarter offered a notable concession: "Right now, our customers are paying more for less. And so we've got to get to the right place where there's actual new generation at the right price." Management explicitly opened the door to working with IPPs "at the right price." The shift signals Exelon now believes the regulatory and legislative environment can deliver the supply outcome without requiring it to own every megawatt — a pragmatic moderation, not a retreat.

Transmission-specific CAGR was offered for the first time. Management quantified that transmission rate base will grow >15% CAGR through the guidance period, with a 10-year pipeline of $12–17B. The Q2 "30% transmission growth versus 8–10% historical" comment has been re-expressed as a hard CAGR. This is the most concrete forward operating metric the company has put on the table this cycle.

Confidence language reached a multi-year high. The CEO's "I've never been more confident that Exelon has the people, the discipline, and the platform to continue to lead the energy transformation and meet this unprecedented demand" is unusual phrasing for a regulated utility, where confidence is typically expressed through reiteration rather than superlatives. Read alongside the simultaneous lift of the long-term CAGR signal, this is management telling investors the setup is materially stronger than 90 days ago.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Transmission investment acceleration driven by data center load and grid reliabilitySupply-side affordability crisis as strategic narrative anchor for utility generation advocacyExecution credibility (within 2% capex, 7.4% earnings CAGR since 2021)Multi-state regulatory coordination on resource adequacy and price supportsCost management discipline ($580M annual O&M savings, flat expense growth 24-26)Balance sheet derisking through convertible debt and managed equity needs

Risks management surfaced:

Regulatory timing uncertainty in Pennsylvania and Maryland rate case decisionsSupply cost volatility in PJM (customers paid $32B more since July 2024 on declining supply)Financing cost increases impacting earnings growth trajectoryBGE reconciliation received only half of requested recoveryCAMT (corporate alternative minimum tax) resolution timing and implementation risk

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 EPS landing point within $2.64–$2.74 — Q4 came in at $0.59 non-GAAP, lifting FY2025 to $2.77 — three cents above the high end of the range. The Q4 reversal of Q3 timing items occurred as flagged but did not push EPS negative; the beat was clean enough to land above the range, not just within it. Status: Resolved positively.

Year-end financing plan refresh and CMAT resolution — The financing plan refresh delivered: $3.4B total equity issuance over four years (~$850M annualized) funding the $41.3B capex plan. CAMT remains on the disclosed risk list ("resolution timing and implementation risk"), and the 14% debt-to-cap target was not directly reaffirmed in the materials provided. Status: Continue monitoring (financing plan resolved; CAMT pending).

Q4 plan refresh — incorporation of the $10–15B transmission opportunity and CAGR floor — The transmission opportunity has been folded into the base plan: $41.3B capex (up $3.3B incremental, 70% transmission-driven), rate base CAGR lifted to 7.9% through 2029, and the EPS CAGR floor effectively raised by reframing from "midpoint or better" of 5–7% to "near the top end" of 5–7%. Status: Resolved positively.

Movement in the 27 GW TSA / cluster pipeline — Specific TSA conversion numbers and the status of the >50 MW ComEd tariff were not called out in the press-release-only disclosures available for this brief. Large-load demand is referenced as a structural driver of the transmission capex, but the GW-level pipeline update wasn't quantified in the materials provided. Status: Continue monitoring.

ACE Ray settlement and other open rate cases — The settlement was not called out as resolved in the press-release disclosures; management flagged "regulatory timing uncertainty in Pennsylvania and Maryland rate case decisions" and noted BGE reconciliation received only half of requested recovery. No ROE awards disclosed to test against the 9–10% underwriting assumption. Status: Continue monitoring (with a negative tilt on the BGE reconciliation point).

Maryland resource adequacy next steps — Multi-state legislative engagement is now the active strategy, and management referenced "considering what is the best approach to action in Pennsylvania" alongside the broader supply-side advocacy. Maryland-specific procurement re-opening was not disclosed in this quarter's materials. Status: Continue monitoring.

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 2026 EPS vs. the ~31% phasing guide — implies roughly $0.89. A material miss would pressure the $2.81–$2.91 range early and undermine the "midpoint or better" framing management explicitly committed to on the 2026 guide.

Conversion of the 27 GW large-load pipeline into quantified contributions to the $41.3B capex plan — specifically, whether the 6 GW awaiting TSA signature (per Q3 disclosure) closes, and whether incremental TSAs are announced. The transmission CAGR >15% story needs ongoing GW-level evidence.

Pennsylvania legislative engagement — management was explicit about "considering what is the best approach to action in Pennsylvania." Watch for filings, supportive legislation, or RFP structures that would create a regulated-generation venue in PECO's footprint.

BGE reconciliation and Maryland rate case outcomes — BGE received only half of requested recovery this cycle; watch whether subsequent filings recover the shortfall or whether Maryland regulatory friction becomes a persistent EPS drag.

CAMT resolution and any equity-issuance plan adjustments — the $3.4B four-year equity number is sized off current capex and tax assumptions; CAMT clarity could shift it ~50bps either direction, per prior management commentary.

Whether the FY2026 print tracks toward "midpoint or better" — management explicitly anchored the 2026 guide to "midpoint or better" of $2.81–$2.91. The whole CAGR-to-top-end narrative depends on delivering $2.86+ in year one of the new plan.

Sources

Exelon Q4 2025 earnings press release (Exhibit 99.1, filed 2026-02-12): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000014/exc-20260212ex991.htm
Exelon Q4 2025 earnings call commentary (as captured in extraction inputs)

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