tapebrief
F · Q3 2025

F · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Ford Motor Company

Reported February 10, 2026

30-second summary

Ford closed 2025 with $45.9B Q4 revenue (-4.8% YoY) and a GAAP loss of $11.1B (-$2.77/share) driven by ~$7B of EV-related charges flagged for 2026-2027 strategy reset, though adjusted Q4 EPS held at $0.13 and FY adjusted FCF of $3.5B beat the lowered $2.0-3.0B guide. The 2026 setup: adjusted EBIT guided to $8.0-10.0B (vs. $6.8B 2025 actual), with Ford Blue stepping up to $4.0-4.5B EBIT (+33-50% YoY at midpoint), Model e losses narrowing only modestly to $4.0-4.5B, and Pro guided $6.5-7.5B — a midpoint barely above 2025's $6.8B. Management calls 2026 a "back-half weighted" recovery, with Q1 EBIT explicitly flagged as roughly flat sequentially.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$0.13

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$45.90B

-4.8% YoY

Free cash flow

Q4 FY2025

$-2.10B

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

-24.9%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025
MetricQ4 FY2025YoYQ3 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$45.90B-4.8%$50.50B-9.1%
EPS$0.13—$0.45-71.1%
Operating margin-24.9%—3.1%-2800bps
Free cash flow$-2.10B—$4.30B-148.8%

Guidance

Ford raised full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance to $5.0B–$6.0B while improving Ford Blue and Model e EBIT expectations, offset by widened Ford Pro EBIT range; 2025 actuals tracked prior guidance at midpoint.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
Adjusted EBITFY 2025$6.0 billion to $6.5 billion——Met
Adjusted Free Cash FlowFY 2025$2.0 billion to $3.0 billion$3.5 billion+$0.5B above high endMet
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025about $9 billion——Met

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
Adjusted EBITFY 2026$8.0 billion to $10.0 billion—
Adjusted Free Cash FlowFY 2026$5.0 billion to $6.0 billion—
Capital ExpendituresFY 2026$9.5 billion to $10.5 billion—
Ford Pro EBITFY 2026$6.5 billion to $7.5 billion—
Ford Blue EBITFY 2026$4.0 billion to $4.5 billion—
Ford Model e EBIT lossFY 2026$4.0 billion to $4.5 billion loss—
Ford Credit EBTFY 2026about $2.5 billion—

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025YoY
Ford Blue$26.2B-4.0%
Ford Model e$1.3B-9.0%
Ford Pro$14.9B-8.0%
Ford Blue Full-Year EBIT$3.0B—
Ford Pro Full-Year EBIT$6.8B—
Ford Model e Full-Year EBIT Loss($4.8B)—
Ford Credit Full-Year EBT$2.6B—

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025
Ford Pro Software Subscriptions Growth+30%
Wholesale Units Q41,083K

Profitability

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025
Adjusted ROIC8.8%
Operating Cash Flow Full-Year$21.3B

Management tone

Q2 anchor: Tariff regime change, capital pivot to Pro → Q3 anchor: Novelis triage, EV reset → Q4 anchor: EV rationalization made explicit with $7B charges

The EV strategy reset that started in Q3 became an accounting event in Q4. Three quarters ago Ford was celebrating Model e's +105% revenue growth while quietly reallocating capital. This quarter the reset got priced: "In 2026 and 2027, we expect to record about 7 billion in charges related to our updated EV strategy" and "In December, we rationalized the role of pure EVs in our near-term product portfolio based on changing market realities in the US." The strategic content was largely known; what changed is that management has now committed to the write-down magnitude, which constrains future optionality and makes the reset irreversible.

Tariff framing has migrated again — from "regime change" (Q2) to "policy support" (Q3) to "$1B credit annualization" (Q4). In Q4 management disclosed that a tariff credit on auto parts became effective November 1 rather than the expected May 3 — a credit value of ~$1.9B whose timing shift created a ~$1B net unfavorable hit to FY 2025 vs. the prior guide (per Farley: "$1 billion higher tariff impact than we communicated just in October"). Pro forma for that one-timer, FY EBIT would have been $7.7B. The flip side is that 2026 benefits from a full year of credit annualization (~$1B tailwind) — meaning a meaningful piece of the 2026 EBIT step-up is one-time annualization, not underlying earnings power.

Novelis recovery is being framed as messier than Q3 implied. Q3 anchored a "$1B Novelis recovery" in 2026; Q4 added the texture that this $1B net comprises $2.5-3B of non-recurring 2025 losses minus $1.5-2B of temporary supply continuity costs (premium freight, tariff workarounds). The mill restart window (May-September 2026) plus the back-half weighting means H1 2026 EBIT will look weak — Q1 is explicitly guided "roughly flat sequentially" off a soft Q4.

Multi-year targets reintroduced to shift investor attention away from near-term losses. Management reintroduced two long-dated anchors: Model e breakeven by 2029 and 8% adjusted EBIT margin company-wide by 2029. The Q3 brief noted management was deferring 2026 EV color "to Q4"; this quarter they delivered the 2026 number ($4.0-4.5B loss, only modestly improved) but pushed the recovery promise three more years out. The rhetorical move — concede near-term, anchor long-term — is a defensive posture, not a confident one.

Ford Pro tone shifted from "durable profit pillar" to one with explicit competitive caveats. In the European LCV context, Alicia Bowler-Davis described the market as a "very competitive environment" while emphasizing competitive products and services. More importantly, the 2026 guide midpoint implies flat-to-down EBIT against the 2025 base — a material framing change versus the prior two-year narrative, even if the verbal cues are softer than the segment math.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Ford Pro as durable profit pillar with software/services diversification acceleratingDisciplined capital reallocation from broad EV to selective affordable platformsSupply chain and tariff headwinds as structural cost pressures requiring ongoing mitigationQuality and cost improvement as competitive differentiators offsetting market normalizationMulti-energy (gas/hybrid/EV) portfolio strategy replacing EV-dominant roadmapFord Energy and software services as new high-margin growth pillars

Risks management surfaced:

Regulatory environment changes and emission standards uncertaintyTariff policy reversals and unexpected late-year credit changesEuropean regulatory climate deterioration impacting Pro segmentNovellus production disruptions and aluminum supply continuityCommodity price inflation (DRAM, metals) impacting margins

Q&A highlights

Dan Levy · Barclays

Unpacking 2026 guidance on slide 19: breakdown of $1B novellas improvement, magnitude of mixed benefits offsetting volume declines from Escape/Corsair in competitive environment, and tariff assumptions. Follow-up on conceptual approach to EV/AV investment given past inefficiencies and impairments.

Novellas improvement of $1B comprises $2.5-3B non-recurrence of 2025 losses offset by $1.5-2B temporary supply continuity costs (tariffs, premium freight). Market factors include ~$500M from reduced regulatory credits due to changed US environment, offset by higher commodity prices and investments in UEV/Ford Energy. EV strategy now focused on customer demand: UEV for $35K profitable EV segment, hybrids across lineup, E-REV for trucks, partnerships overseas (Renault B-car EV, VW collaboration), opportunistic China/export strategy. Chinese pricing pressure and regulatory environment identified as key wildcards.

$2.5-3B non-recurrence of 2025 losses at Dearborn and Kentucky plants$1.5-2B temporary costs for supply continuity in 2026$500M reduction in US regulatory creditsNovellas hot mill restart expected May-September 2026

Joseph Spack · UBS

Clarification on Novellas impact math: $2B loss in 2025, improving by $1B net but with $1.5-2B temporary costs embedded, implying underlying 2026 EBIT closer to $10.5B excluding temporary costs. Also seeking color on competitive threats in trucks/LCVs and market mix factors driving profitability.

Confirmed $2B 2025 novellas impact with $500M-1B recovery potential now vs. $1B originally, yielding net $1B positive in 2026 but inclusive of $1.5-2B temporary costs. Novellas restart mid-year (May-September range) with contingency plans for supply scenarios. On trucks: no new threat, Ford growing share (2 points revenue, 1.5 points volume in 2025), maintains leadership vs. competitors. Disciplined pricing approach balancing stock and incentives. On mix: increasing hybrids on Maverick, V8s/Lariats/Raptors on F-150 per demand. Pro segment expecting continued competitive environment but solid pricing initially and strong orders.

$2B novellas impact in 2025, recovering $500M-1B in 2026$1.5-2B temporary supply/tariff costs in 2026Novellas restart timeline: May-September 2026Contingency plans for multiple supply scenarios

Emmanuel Rosner · Wolf Research

CapEx increase of $1B to $9.5-10.5B despite offsetting $1B cost savings: how should investors think about CapEx needs over next few years? Is this a new run rate or initial boost for energy storage? Follow-up on Model E path to profitability and timing of improvements vs. 2029 target.

CapEx increase driven primarily by Ford Energy ($2B total investment, $1.5B in 2026). Capital allocation shifted via new process, with ~75% going to higher-return truck and multi-energy portfolio, 25% to Ford Energy and EV models (UEV, E-REV). Blue receiving increased investment in hybrids/new products. Model E investment being decelerated though still at high levels. Expect steady profitability improvement throughout period as UEV ramps 2027 with increased variants in 2028+, B-vehicles launch in Europe, and Gen 1 volumes decline. Target: achieve 8% EBIT margin company-wide.

$9.5-10.5B CapEx guidance (increase of >$1B)$2B Ford Energy investment total, $1.5B in 2026~75% of capital to truck/multi-energy, 25% to Ford Energy and new EV models8% EBIT margin target for company

Ryan Brinkman · JP Morgan

Tariff headwinds: explanation of $2B 2025 tariff cost vs. $1B originally communicated due to late-year regulatory change on auto parts credits; what was the exact regulatory change and why did it reverse; is headwind one-time or continuing into 2026? Also seeking Europe business commentary on passenger vehicles vs. commercial, impacts from December 15 EV portfolio changes and Renault partnership.

Tariff credit became effective November 1 instead of May 3, creating ~$1.9B swing (about $1B of the total difference). This was one-time hit in Q4. Going forward, the credit can be used. Additional $1.2-1.7B better-than-expected performance in Q4 attributable to cost improvements (material, warranty) and some pricing. On Europe: Pro business remains core strength and very profitable; first year realizing VW scale benefits on one-ton van. Passenger car profitability challenged; using Renault B-car EV platform to reduce costs dramatically. Regulatory policy on EU/UK CO2 vs. jobs is key variability driver. Ford not a national champion, can speak for customer interests and pricing power.

~$1.9B tariff credit swing from timing change (November 1 vs. May 3 effective date)$1B of total Q4 outperformance attributable to tariff credit timing$1.2-1.7B additional Q4 outperformance from cost and pricingOriginal 3Q EBIT guidance $6.0-6.5B, pro forma for tariff adjustment would have been $7.7B

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 EBIT delivered against guide midpoint — Q4 GAAP results show $11.1B net loss driven by ~$7B EV-related charges, so the GAAP print is well below the "Q4 ~$0.5B midpoint" anchor. On an adjusted basis, FY EBIT came in at $6.8B — above the $6.0-6.5B range — but ~$1B of Q4 outperformance came from operational cost beats while the tariff credit timing shift was a net headwind absorbed during the year. Status: Resolved mixed (GAAP loss far exceeded prior framing; adjusted EBIT beat the guide range on genuine cost performance)
2026 framework: explicit Model e loss range, Novelis recovery anchoring, tariff continuity — All three were disclosed. Model e 2026 loss of $4.0-4.5B (narrows by $0.3-0.8B vs $4.8B 2025). Novelis $1B improvement disclosed as net (gross $2.5-3B non-recurrence minus $1.5-2B temporary costs). Tariff cost reduction of ~$1B confirmed, reflecting credit expansion annualization. Status: Resolved positively (disclosure delivered as promised; substance is mixed)
Ford Pro margin recovery to 12%+ — Q4 segment revenue down 8% YoY at $14.9B. 2026 EBIT guide of $6.5-7.5B against $6.8B 2025 implies roughly flat — margin recovery is NOT in the guide. Software subscriptions +30% YoY. Status: Resolved negatively (Pro is being guided as flat-to-down, not recovering)
Gen 1 EV pricing actions — Management announced $7B in EV-related charges across 2026-2027 reflecting "updated EV strategy," which is the structural answer: Gen 1 economics are being written down rather than fixed via pricing. UEV platform (2027 ramp) and B-vehicle Europe launches via Renault platform are the path forward. Status: Resolved negatively (the bull case that Gen 1 could be moved toward breakeven is now off the table)
Off-road/Raptor mix realization — Not specifically called out in the disclosed Q4 print or the 2026 bridge. The $1B of material/warranty cost improvements expected in 2026 includes some mix benefit but no specific Raptor/Tremor lift was quantified. Status: Continue monitoring
Warranty run-rate sustainability — Management referenced "$1B of material and warranty cost improvements expected" in 2026 — a forward commitment that implies the Q3 $450M YoY warranty improvement is being sustained and scaled. Q4 standalone warranty figures were not disclosed in the available materials. Status: Continue monitoring (forward commitment is encouraging; Q4 standalone proof point not disclosed)

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 2026 EBIT vs. "roughly flat sequentially" anchor — management explicitly guided Q1 EBIT roughly flat sequentially off a Q4 base. With ~$11.1B Q4 GAAP loss reflecting one-time charges, the operational Q1 anchor will only be readable after backing out the charge magnitude. Watch whether Q1 adjusted EBIT lands above ~$1.5B (consistent with a $9B FY midpoint, back-half weighted) or below, which would put the full $8-10B range at risk.

Novelis hot mill restart timing (May-September 2026 window) — every $1B of the 2026 bridge depends on this. A restart slipping to Q3 2026 means the $1.5-2B of temporary supply continuity costs extend deeper into the year, pulling EBIT toward the low end of the $8B guide.

Ford Pro EBIT cadence and orders — 2026 guide implies flat-to-down vs. 2025's $6.8B. Watch whether Q1/Q2 EBIT runs above $1.75B/quarter (annualizing to $7B+) or below $1.5B/quarter (annualizing toward $6.0B), which would breach the low end. Software subscription growth (+30% YoY this quarter) remains the leading indicator for the annuity.

EV charge magnitude split between 2026 and 2027 — the $7B total has not been split between years, though management indicated cash expenditures of up to $5.5B are "most weighted in 2026." A 2026-heavy weighting compresses near-term GAAP earnings further; a 2027 weighting preserves optionality. Disclosure at Q1 or Q2 will signal the cadence.

Tariff credit run-rate normalization — $1B of the 2026 EBIT step-up is tariff credit annualization. Any policy reversal or limitation on credit eligibility would directly subtract from the 2026 EBIT midpoint by up to $1B. Watch policy commentary and any quarter where the credit benefit is quantified separately.

Underlying 2026 EBIT excluding temporary costs (~$10.5B implied per UBS exchange) — this is the 2027 starting-point question. If Q1-Q2 trends suggest $1.5-2B of temporary costs are tracking high, the underlying 2026 number falls, dragging the 2027 baseline with it.

Sources

  1. Ford Motor Company Q4 FY2025 Earnings Press Release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99), filed February 10, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/37996/000003799626000014/exhibit99tofebruary10202.htm
  2. Ford Motor Company Q4 FY2025 earnings call commentary (prepared remarks and Q&A)
  3. Tapebrief Q3 FY2025 brief (prior-quarter guidance baseline and watch list)
  4. Tapebrief Q2 FY2025 brief (FY2025 guide reinstatement baseline)

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