FCX · Q2 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Freeport-McMoRan

Reported July 23, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: Q2 FY2026 was a broad operational beat — revenue of $7.03B beat consensus by 4.4%, non-GAAP EPS of $0.74 beat by 23.3%, copper sales of 710M lbs came in 20M lbs above the April sub-period marker, and unit cash cost of $1.97/lb ran $0.27/lb favorable to the $2.24/lb marker. But the forward read is where the caution lives: FY2026 operating cash flow was quietly cut from $8.7B to $8.3B (-4.6%), and the FY copper unit cash cost guide moved to $1.90/lb only because moly sales were raised to 93M lbs (+3.3%) — the underlying cost picture is still absorbing Grasberg ramp inefficiency. Gold sales missed the Q2 marker by 12.1% (123k oz vs 140k), signaling PTFI ramp risk is live, and Q3's implied $2.00/lb unit cash cost guide is $0.10 above the FY average — costs stay front-loaded.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$0.74

+23.3% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$7.03B

-7.3% YoY

+4.4% vs est.

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

28.5%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$7.03B	$7.58B	-7.3%	$6.23B	+12.8%
EPS	$0.74	$0.54	+37.0%	$0.57	+29.8%
Operating margin	28.5%	32.1%	-360bps	34.3%	-580bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Copper sales	Q2 FY2026	690 million pounds	710 million pounds	+20 million pounds above guide	Beat
Gold sales	Q2 FY2026	140 thousand ounces	123 thousand ounces	-17 thousand ounces below guide	Missed
Molybdenum sales	Q2 FY2026	22 million pounds	25 million pounds	+3 million pounds above guide	Met
Unit net cash costs (copper)	Q2 FY2026	$2.24 per pound	$1.97 per pound	-$0.27 per pound below estimate (cost favorable)	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Copper sales	Q3 FY2026	750 million pounds	—
Gold sales	Q3 FY2026	160 thousand ounces	—
Molybdenum sales	Q3 FY2026	22 million pounds	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Molybdenum sales	FY 2026	90 million pounds	93 million pounds	+3 million pounds	Raised
Unit net cash costs (copper)	FY 2026	$1.95 per pound	$1.90 per pound	-$0.05 per pound	Lowered
Operating cash flows	FY 2026	$8.7 billion	$8.3 billion	-$0.4 billion	Lowered

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Copper sales (3.1 billion pounds), Gold sales (650 thousand ounces), Capital expenditures ($4.3 billion)

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Copper Sales Volume	710 million pounds	—	—
Copper Production Volume	786 million pounds	—	—
Gold Sales Volume	123 thousand ounces	—	—
Molybdenum Sales Volume	25 million pounds	—	—
Average Copper Realized Price	$6.17 per pound	—	—
Consolidated Unit Net Cash Costs (Copper)	$1.97 per pound	—	—
Operating Cash Flow	$2.048 billion	$2.2 billion	—
Capital Expenditures	$1.104 billion	$1.3 billion	—

Management tone

Transcript commentary pending — tone analysis will resume with next quarter's brief once earnings-call remarks are available. The press-release narrative held the operational messaging consistent with prior quarters: PTFI ramp tracking to plan, leach program on plan, cost pressure from ramp inefficiency partially offset by by-product credits.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

PB2/PB3 ramp rate against the H2 FY2026 plan — The press release reaffirmed the H2 FY2026 PTFI production rate at ~65% of normal capacity, with 80% by mid-2027 and full capacity by end of 2027. The Q2 gold miss (-12.1% vs guide) is the first quantitative signal that ramp is coming in tight against the plan; specific tpd rates disclosed showed Grasberg Block Cave ore extracted at 53,000 tpd in Q2 vs 114,500 tpd in Q2 2025. Status: Continue monitoring

Q2 FY2026 unit cash cost against the $2.24/lb sub-period marker — Q2 landed at $1.97/lb, $0.27/lb favorable — a 12% beat. But the FY guide was lowered only $0.05/lb (to $1.90), and Q3 is guided at $2.00/lb — meaning management expects H2 cost pressure roughly consumes the Q2 beat. The cost beat is real but not extrapolatable. Status: Resolved positively on the quarter, but the FY cost bridge is not de-risked

PTFI smelter restart in H2 FY2026 — PT Smelting was operating at capacity by end of Q2; shipments to PTFI's smelter expected to recommence in H2 2026 at a reduced rate dependent on Grasberg Block Cave concentrate availability. PMR continues to operate on a limited basis. Status: Partially updated; continue monitoring

Leach program pounds delivered per quarter against the 300M lb FY2026 target — Incremental leach production totaled 47M lbs in Q2 and 101M lbs in H1 FY2026. Annualized run rate tracking below the 300M lb end-of-year target, but management reaffirmed the target. Status: Continue monitoring

Average realized copper price vs the new $6.00/lb FY base case — Q2 realized $6.17/lb, $0.17/lb above the base case. Commodity tailwind holding into H1 FY2026. Status: Resolved positively on Q2

Bagdad expansion midyear FY2026 investment decision — Management indicated a potential investment decision during the second half of 2026. Current capital cost estimates run approximately 30% above the prior $3.5B estimate; project economics remain supported at ~$4.00/lb incentive copper price. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Q3 FY2026 gold sales against the 160k oz sub-period marker — the Q2 gold miss (123k vs 140k guide) is the cleanest early signal that PTFI ramp is running below plan. A Q3 gold print materially below 160k oz would validate that the 65% H2 capacity assumption is itself optimistic and force another PTFI-driven FY guide cut.

Q3 FY2026 unit cash cost against the $2.00/lb sub-period marker — the first quarter where Grasberg ramp costs and idle facility burden fully flow through together. A print above $2.00/lb would signal the $1.90/lb FY average is unreachable.

The unexplained $400M operating cash flow cut — the FY OCF guide dropped $400M despite favorable copper price, favorable copper unit cost, and raised moly volumes. Watch for management to isolate the driver on the Q2 earnings call (once transcript is available) or in Q3 disclosures — the leading candidates are idle facility cost extension ($690M H1 run rate) or PTFI concentrate timing.

Leach program quarterly pace — H1 delivered 101M lbs against the 300M lb FY target, implying H2 must nearly double the H1 pace to hit the year-end run rate. Watch Q3 for evidence of the Morenci additive testing and heat-application programs delivering step-function gains.

PTFI H2 FY2026 concentrate flow to Manyar smelter — smelter restart at reduced rate depends on Grasberg Block Cave concentrate availability. Any delay extends idle facility cost pressure into FY2027.

Bagdad 2X H2 FY2026 investment decision — the window is now. Watch for the updated capex figure (currently ~30% above the 2023 $3.5B baseline), the commodity price scenario embedded, and any autonomous fleet or leaching-technology performance disclosure that would delay the timeline.

Sources

Freeport-McMoRan Q2 2026 Press Release (Exhibit 99.1): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

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