FDX · Q4 2026 Earnings

Cautious

FedEx

Reported June 23, 2026

30-second summary

FedEx closed FY26 with Q4 revenue of $25.0B (+12.5% YoY, beating consensus of $24.0B by 4.2%) and non-GAAP EPS of $6.31 (beating consensus of $5.92 by 6.6%), with Federal Express +13.7% and U.S. Domestic Package +12.7% extending the Network 2.0 thesis decisively. FY26 non-GAAP EPS of $20.24 finished above the $19.30–$20.10 guide, and FY revenue grew 7.7% versus the +6.0–6.5% guide. The forward picture is materially harder to read: alongside the just-completed Freight spin (June 1, 2026) and the previously announced shift of the fiscal year end from May 31 to December 31, FedEx introduced a first-time CY2026 outlook covering only the 7-month Jun–Dec 2026 transition period, from continuing operations (i.e., ex-Freight). That guide is not directly comparable to prior FY26 guides on period length or segment composition, and the press release language softens to "continued revenue and earnings growth momentum in our transition year."

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2026

$6.31

+6.6% vs est.

Revenue

Q4 FY2026

$25.00B

+12.5% YoY

+4.2% vs est.

Operating margin

Q4 FY2026

8.4%

Key financials

Q4 FY2026

Metric	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$25.00B	$22.20B	+12.6%	$24.00B	+4.2%
EPS	$6.31	$6.07	+4.0%	$5.25	+20.2%
Operating margin	8.4%	9.1%	-70bps	5.6%	+280bps

Guidance

FedEx dramatically raised FY2026 revenue growth guidance to ~11% YoY on Q4 outperformance, but slashed non-GAAP EPS guidance by 9.8% to $16.90–$18.10, signaling margin compression and higher pension contributions despite lower capex.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue YoY Growth	Q4 FY2026	6% to 7.5%	12.5%	+5.0–6.5 pts above guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Diluted EPS (GAAP, Continuing Operations)	FY2026	$16.55 to $17.75	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP, Continuing Operations)	FY2026	$19.30 to $20.10	$16.90 to $18.10	−$1.20 to −$2.00 (midpoint down ~9.8%)	Lowered
Revenue YoY Growth	FY2026	6.0% to 6.5%	~11%	+4.5–5.0 pts	Raised
Effective Tax Rate	FY2026	approximately 24%	~23%	−1 pt	Lowered
Pension Contributions	FY2026	$275 million	$475 million	+$200 million (+72.7%)	Raised
Capital Spending	FY2026	no more than $4.1 billion	$3.9 billion	−$0.2 billion (−4.9%)	Lowered

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Federal Express	$21.6B	$19B	+13.7%
FedEx Freight	$2.4B	$2.3B	+4.3%
U.S. Domestic Package	$14.2B	$12.6B	+12.7%
International Export Package	$4.2B	$3.7B	+13.5%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY
U.S. Domestic Average Daily Volume	14,225k packages	—	—
U.S. Domestic Package Yield	$15.58	—	—
International Export Package Yield	$56.17	—	—
FedEx Freight Average Daily Shipments	86.7k shipments	92.1 thousand	—
FedEx Freight Revenue per Shipment	$415.22	—	—
Operating Margin (non-GAAP)	8.4%	—	—
Transformation Cost Savings	>$1.0 billion	—	—
Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue	4.0%	—	—

Management tone

Q4 FY25 (FY26 guidance withheld, demand "volatile") → Q1 FY26 ($1B trade headwind quantified) → Q2 FY26 ($600M H2 headwind, Freight collapsing) → Q3 FY26 (transformation thesis vindicated, "new standard") → Q4 FY26 (revenue and EPS beat decisively; forward outlook resets to a 7-month, ex-Freight CY2026 stub framed as a "transition year").

Note: no earnings call transcript was available for this quarter. The tone read below is drawn entirely from the press-release qualitative statements.

From "Q3 strength becomes a new standard" to "transition year." One quarter ago Smith and Dietrich declared a structural seasonality reset, with Q3 peak profitability as "a new standard" and a +$1.30 midpoint EPS raise to back it up. This quarter's press release language softens to "continued revenue and earnings growth momentum in our transition year." "Transition year" is doing real work in that sentence — the release frames it as the bridge between the May-end fiscal regime and the new December-end calendar regime, post-Freight spin — but the release does not quantify the bridge from FY26 consolidated economics to the CY2026 continuing-ops baseline. Without a transcript or call to interrogate management, that gap is the most important tape signal of the print.

Same levers, broader language. Q3's bridge story was that transformation savings, an ETR cut, and Network 2.0 were driving structural margin expansion. This quarter the same levers reappear — transformation savings still ">$1B" for FY26, ETR forecast at ~23%, capex disciplined — but the qualitative description shifts to "network optimization and efficiency improvement, including fleet and facility modernization and automation," with Network 2.0 not explicitly named as the driver. With the Freight spin executed and the Investor Day having taken place in April, the absence of an updated Network 2.0 contribution against the $2B end-FY27 target is conspicuous.

Capex framing. FY26 actual capex of $3.8B came in below the $4.1B cap, with capex/revenue at 4.0% — the lowest annual level in FedEx history per the release. The CY2026 $3.9B 7-month guide is described as prioritizing "network optimization and efficiency improvement, including fleet and facility modernization and automation." The structural direction — disciplined capex intensity — is consistent with Q3's framing.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q4 consolidated revenue lands in the +6–7.5% YoY guide range — Revenue grew +12.5% YoY to $25.0B, well above the high end of the +6–7.5% guide. Acceleration was driven by Federal Express +13.7% and International Export +15.2% — broad-based.

Resolved positively

FEC Q4 revenue growth holding the ~+8% midpoint guide — Federal Express delivered +13.7%, decisively above the +8% guide and accelerating from Q3's +10.3%. The "Q3 was peak" risk is invalidated for the segment.

Resolved positively

Whether Q4 adjusted EPS lands near the ~$5.80 midpoint — Non-GAAP EPS of $6.31 beat the midpoint by $0.51 (+8.8%). FY26 non-GAAP EPS of $20.24 also cleared the $19.30–$20.10 guide.

Resolved positively

FedEx Freight Q4 adjusted operating margin (final pre-spin print) — Freight revenue +4.8% to $2.4B with ADV of 86.7K (vs. 80.2K in Q3) and revenue per shipment of $415.22 (vs. $380.24 in Q3). Both volume and pricing reversed Q3's deterioration. GAAP segment operating margin of 6.6% is depressed by $205M of separation/other costs in the quarter; the non-GAAP segment operating margin was 15.1%. Status: Resolved positively on top-line and unit economics; segment-level margin compares unfavorably YoY (Q4 FY25 GAAP margin 20.8%) before adjustments.

Form 10 filing for Freight spin — Separation completed June 1, 2026, with FedEx receiving a ~$4.1B cash dividend from FedEx Freight. Status: Resolved (separation completed).

Network 2.0 quantified FY26 contribution against the $2B end-FY27 cumulative target — Transformation cost savings disclosed as "more than $1 billion" for FY26 (in line with prior guidance), but no Network 2.0-specific contribution is quantified in the release. Management's qualitative language broadened from "Network 2.0" to "network optimization and efficiency improvement." Status: Not resolved — disclosure framework appears to be moving away from a Network 2.0-specific tracker.

Whether the capex cut to $4.1B signals lower long-term growth investment — FY26 actual capex came in at $3.8B (below the $4.1B cap), with capex/revenue at 4.0%, the lowest annual level in FedEx history. The CY2026 $3.9B 7-month continuing-ops guide is not directly comparable to a 12-month consolidated FY26 number, so the long-run trajectory remains an open question pending the recasted CY2025 baseline. Status: Partially resolved — FY26 confirmed disciplined; forward trajectory not yet readable on a like-for-like basis.

What to watch into next quarter

The recasted CY2025 continuing-operations baseline — FedEx expects to file an 8-K with recasted and resegmented CY2024 and CY2025 financials (Freight as discontinued operations) by mid-August 2026. Until that lands, the CY2026 ~11% revenue and $16.90–$18.10 non-GAAP EPS guide cannot be benchmarked on a like-for-like basis. This is the single most important upcoming disclosure for re-rating the forward outlook.

Definition and pacing of the "transition year" — the press release uses "transition year" as the qualitative frame but does not quantify the bridge from FY26 consolidated economics to the 7-month CY2026 continuing-ops stub. Watch the next call for an explicit bridge: post-spin earnings removal, pension P&L impact, transformation savings cadence, and any new cost categories.

CY2026 revenue growth against the ~11% YoY guide — the first stub-period print will set the baseline read on whether the post-spin continuing-ops franchise is growing in line with the new framework.

Standalone Federal Express operating margin trajectory post-Freight spin — with Freight separated, the consolidated 8.4% Q4 non-GAAP margin no longer maps cleanly to the new entity. Watch whether the first post-spin print sustains FEC's segment-level margin expansion.

Whether Network 2.0 receives a renewed quantified target — the shift to broader "network optimization" language without a Network 2.0-specific contribution is a meaningful framework change. Continued absence would suggest the program is being de-emphasized as a distinct narrative.

Pension funding cadence under the new calendar year — the $475M CY2026 (7-month) pension contribution figure needs to be evaluated against the recasted CY2025 baseline to determine whether this is a step-up, a normalization, or a timing artifact of the shorter stub period.

Sources

FedEx Q4 FY2026 Earnings Release, filed with SEC, June 23, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048911/000104891126000050/fdx-earningsreleasefy2026q4.htm
FedEx Q3 FY2026 Earnings Release, March 19, 2026 (prior-quarter guidance baseline).
FedEx Q2 and Q1 FY2026 Earnings Releases (multi-quarter pension contribution trajectory and trade headwind framing).

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