FE · Q1 2026 Earnings
BullishFirstEnergy
Reported April 28, 2026
30-second summary
30-second take: FirstEnergy posted Q1 FY2026 Core EPS of $0.72 on revenue of $4.2B (+10.5% YoY), and reaffirmed FY26 Core EPS guidance of $2.62–$2.82. The signal is in the pipeline mechanics: management said ~4 GW of the data-center pipeline is in final contract negotiations and is expected to convert to construction agreements within Q1 itself — "nearly doubling our contracted demand." Paired with a $1.4B Q1 CapEx run-rate against a $6.0B FY26 plan, a $36B 2026–2030 plan, and a ~10% rate-base CAGR, this is execution converting the Q3 forward-plan reset into bookable commercial reality.
Headline numbers
EPS
Q1 FY2026
$0.72
0.0% vs est.
Revenue
Q1 FY2026
$4.20B
+10.5% YoY
+9.4% vs est.
Key financials
Q1 FY2026| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | YoY | Q3 FY2025 | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.20B | +10.5% | $4.10B | +2.4% |
| EPS | $0.72 | — | $0.83 | -13.3% |
Guidance
FirstEnergy raised FY2026 Core EPS guidance by $0.12–$0.26 (5–10%) to $2.62–$2.82, significantly outperforming Q1 revenue expectations while reaffirming longer-term CAGR near the top end of 6–8%.
Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.
Actuals vs prior guidance
| Metric | Period | Prior guide | Actual | Δ | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Q1 FY2026 | — | $4.2 billion | +$0.36B (+9.4%) above consensus estimate of $3.84B | Beat |
| Core EPS | Q1 FY2026 | — | $0.72 | in-line with consensus estimate of $0.72 | Met |
New guidance
| Metric | Period | Guide | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core Earnings CAGR | FY2026–FY2030 | near the top end of 6–8% (2026–2030) | — |
Changes to prior guidance
| Metric | Period | Prior guide | New guide | Δ | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core EPS | FY2026 | $2.50 to $2.56 | $2.62 to $2.82 | +$0.12 to +$0.26 at midpoint (+5.1% to +10.4%) | Raised |
Other KPIs
Q1 FY2026| Segment | Q1 FY2026 |
|---|---|
| Capital Investment (Q1 2026) | $1.4 billion |
| 2026 Planned Capital Investment | $6.0 billion |
| 2026-2030 Capital Investment Plan | $36 billion |
| Trailing Twelve-Month ROE | 9.8% |
| Transmission Rate Base Growth (Integrated segment) | 19% |
| Stand-Alone Transmission Rate Base Growth | 11% |
| 2026-2030 Rate Base CAGR | ~10% |
Management tone
Data center load has moved from "pipeline" to "contracted within the quarter." Prior-quarter disclosure framed the pipeline as a future opportunity. This quarter management said the pipeline is converting in real time: "Approximately four gigawatts of our total pipeline is in final contract negotiations and are expected to become contracted with a construction agreement within this quarter, nearly doubling our contracted demand." This is the inflection from disclosure to bookings — a "doubling of contracted demand" inside one quarter changes the basis for the 2026–2030 plan from forecast to backlog.
West Virginia generation has moved from "we plan to file" to "executing contracts upon approval." The prior quarter disclosed the 1.2 GW gas project with a Q1 2026 filing date. This quarter the CPCN has been filed and management is "simultaneously working through contracts for major equipment, EPC, and gas supply with all of this work on track. Upon regulatory approval, we expect to be in a position to execute these agreements." Three quarters ago WV generation was a speculative integrated-state play; today it is a near-binding commercial sequence waiting only on the regulator.
Affordability has flipped from defensive posture to proactive positioning. Earlier quarters mentioned affordability as a regulatory risk factor. This quarter management opens the affordability discussion as a competitive lever: "we are proactively having constructive conversations with elected officials and regulators in each of our states to look for ways to address questions around affordability for our customers." The Q&A reinforced this with specific reliability proof points (Pennsylvania customer interruption duration down 27 minutes since 2024; New Jersey outage duration improved 16%). This is FE using operational deliverables to neutralize the rate-case political headwind, not just acknowledging the headwind.
CEO conviction language has hardened. Across prior quarters management telegraphed possibility ("up to 18%"). This quarter the CEO said "What I observed during the first three months of this year further strengthens my commitment to our strategic direction" — a notable shift from defending the plan to affirming it based on operational evidence. The "near the top end" CAGR language is the numeric expression of the same posture.
Transmission competitive procurement reframed as a track record, not a pipeline. "Over the last four years, we have been awarded more than $5 billion in competitive projects, and we expect more opportunity in future solicitations." The 80–85% core / 15–20% competitive split disclosed in Q&A puts the competitive piece in proportion — it is the upside lever, not the base case, and management is now using the win history rather than the forward opportunity set to underwrite the next round.
Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:
Risks management surfaced:
Q&A highlights
Char Perez · Wells Fargo
Timing of West Virginia generation investment spend, turbine queue status for incremental generation, and impact on CAGR profile. Also asked about Pennsylvania affordability concerns and rate case timing strategy.
Turbine delivery on track for 2031 online date. CPCN approval expected Q4 2024, which would increase rate-based growth from 10%+ to 11%+. On Pennsylvania, management emphasized engagement with Governor Shapiro, noting reliability improvements (27 minutes reduction in customer interruption duration since 2024) and staying close to regulators on affordability concerns. No surprise rate filings planned.
Nick Campanella · Barclays
Frameworks to facilitate next phase of load growth in West Virginia beyond initial gigawatt, including tariff requirements and replicable sector models. Also asked about funding and financing mix for additional capital.
Management emphasized hyperscaler preference to pay full fair share for all consumption (transmission, generation, land). Referenced Michigan model with potential customer rate reductions. For West Virginia generation investment, expects up to 35% funded with new equity, with AFUDC cash recovery funding portion. Expects similar equity ratios as new investments are layered into plan.
Steve Fleischman · Wolf Research
Pennsylvania political backdrop regarding affordability concerns, recent peer rate case withdrawal, stay-out implications, and timing strategy. Also asked about West Virginia power plant final costing versus initial estimates.
Management stated no negative inferences should be drawn from peer actions; Governor Shapiro is thoughtful on energy issues and saved PJM billions through negotiated caps. Company proceeding with investment plans and confident in Pennsylvania returns while being cognizant of affordability. On West Virginia, maintains confidence in $2.5 billion plant estimate; noted seller's market for turbines with implicit warning to equipment suppliers about political implications of aggressive pricing.
Jeremy Toney · JP Morgan
Transmission investment opportunity set in PGM open window, scope of opportunities, and process status. Also asked about affordability differentiation in New Jersey and how lower bill status resonates with stakeholders.
Management noted $5 billion transmission investment secured over 4 years through evolving competitive business model with partnerships. 80-85% of transmission CapEx is core system work, not competitive projects. On affordability, highlighted that FirstEnergy bills are among lowest in operating states, rates increasing slower than inflation, and emphasized 16% improvement in New Jersey outage duration (49 minutes per customer). Acknowledged customers squeezed by multiple cost categories beyond energy bills.
Andrew Wiseau · Scotiabank
Details on cost-cutting measures and 5% year-over-year O&M expense reduction, including whether savings are structural versus one-time, jurisdiction-specific impacts, AI/automation role, and reliability implications.
Management characterized savings as sustainable, driven by shift from reactive to predictive, data-analytics-driven decision-making since 2022. Company is shrinking service core, increasing business unit presence to move customer management closer to customers. Described cost management program as integral to company's future operational model. Indicated confidence in continued cost reduction opportunities.
Answers to last quarter's watch list
What to watch into next quarter
Whether the ~4 GW of "in final negotiation" data center contracts actually executes by end of Q1 as guided — management committed to "within this quarter." Failure to deliver this in the Q2 print would materially undermine the conviction language; delivery on or above 4 GW is the cleanest evidence of pipeline-to-backlog conversion.
WV CPCN approval timing vs. the implied Q4 2026 schedule — Q&A pointed to early Q4 approval as the trigger for stepping rate-base growth from "10%+ to 11%+." Slippage past year-end would push the rate-base step into 2027.
Whether FY26 EPS guidance gets narrowed or raised at Q2 — H2-weighted earnings cadence was flagged; a Q2 print materially above the implied first-half run-rate would set up a narrow-to-upper-half move on Q3.
Hard transmission-only dollar figure within the $36B plan — the missing denominator from prior framing is still missing; investors need to size the transmission piece to compare against prior allocations.
Reaffirmation (or revision) of the FFO/Debt floor — with 35% equity funding now disclosed for WV generation, the credit-metric anchor has changed in composition. Explicit guidance on the target should land in the next plan-refresh disclosure.
Sources
- FirstEnergy Q1 2026 News Release — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1031296/000103129626000084/ex991-q12026newsrelease.htm
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