FIX · Q2 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Comfort Systems USA

Reported July 23, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: Revenue grew 50.3% YoY to $3.27B, beating consensus of $2.99B by 9.4%, with GAAP EPS of $12.53 up 92% YoY and beating the $10.46 estimate by 19.8%. Backlog stepped from $12.45B to $14.06B and same-store backlog moved to $13.70B vs $8.12B a year ago (+69% YoY on a much stiffer comp). Forward commentary remains qualitative: management is "optimistic about the remainder of 2026 and well into 2027" but declined to attach any number to that view — consistent with the qualitative-only posture ("optimistic about our prospects for the next several quarters") on record entering the quarter. The read: a nearly 10% revenue beat and record cash flow, delivered without any tightening of the forward frame.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$12.53

+19.8% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$3.27B

+50.3% YoY

+9.4% vs est.

Gross margin

Q2 FY2026

25.9%

Free cash flow

Q2 FY2026

$1.00B

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

17.1%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$3.27B	$2.17B	+50.5%	$2.87B	+14.1%
EPS	$12.53	$6.53	+91.9%	$10.51	+19.2%
Gross margin	25.9%	23.5%	+240bps	26.3%	-40bps
Operating margin	17.1%	13.8%	+330bps	17.0%	+10bps
Free cash flow	$1.00B	$0.22B	+350.1%	$0.24B	+312.9%

Guidance

Company delivered strong Q2 beats on both revenue and EPS with robust backlog growth, while offering only qualitative guidance for Q3 FY2026 with no quantitative next-quarter targets.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q2 FY2026	—	$3.27 billion	+9.4% above consensus estimate	Beat
EPS (GAAP)	Q2 FY2026	—	$12.53	+19.8% above consensus estimate	Beat
Backlog	Q2 FY2026	—	$14.06 billion	in-line	Met
Operating Margin	Q2 FY2026	—	17.1%	in-line	Met
Free Cash Flow	Q2 FY2026	—	$999.3 million	in-line	Met

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Backlog	$14.06 billion	—	—
Same-store backlog growth	$13.70 billion vs $8.12 billion YoY	—	—
Operating margin	17.1%	—	—
Adjusted EBITDA	$600.5 million	$334.1 million	—
Adjusted EBITDA margin	18.4%	—	—
Operating cash flow	$1.14 billion	—	—
Free cash flow	$999.3 million	—	—
YoY EPS growth	92%	—	—

Management tone

The forward window extended to "well into 2027." Prior qualitative posture was "optimistic about our prospects for the next several quarters." This quarter's release commits to "the remainder of 2026 and well into 2027." For a company whose prior-quarter forward language was explicitly multi-quarter but unspecified, naming 2027 is a modest lengthening of the articulated visibility window. Combined with backlog of $14.06B — now ~1.4x trailing revenue — the pipeline commentary is doing more work than the numeric guide (which does not exist).

Backlog framing emphasizes persistence. The release language — "strong ongoing demand," "solid sequential and year over year backlog growth" — is measured rather than emphatic. The +69% same-store YoY reading is on an $8.12B prior-year base; absolute levels keep stepping up while the growth rate naturally moderates on comp math.

Cash flow is the standout descriptor. Lane's own language — "remarkable and completely unprecedented quarterly cash flow of more than $1 billion" — is the strongest superlative in the release. Q2 OCF of $1.14B vs $252.5M a year ago is a >4x jump, and H1 OCF of $1.53B vs $164.5M is a ~9x jump. Working capital is releasing at a scale not previously seen in the sequence.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Revenue trajectory. Q2 printed $3.27B; H1 revenue is $6.13B vs $4.00B in H1 2025 (+53% YoY). Growth pace has not decelerated from Q1.

Resolved positively

Same-store backlog YoY rate vs. absolute level. Absolute backlog cleared $13B ($13.70B same-store, $14.06B total). The YoY rate is +69% on the toughest comp yet. Absolute levels keep stepping up.

Resolved positively

Acquisition margin contribution. Consolidated operating margin printed 17.1% (H1: 17.0%) and Adjusted EBITDA margin 18.4% (H1: 18.3%) — no visible compression from recent acquisition mix.

Resolved positively

Underlying gross margin trajectory. Q2 gross margin printed 25.9% vs 23.5% Q2 2025 (+240bps YoY). Pricing power is confirmed.

Resolved positively

Labor as the binding constraint. The company didn't disclose an updated headcount figure in the release, and no transcript Q&A was available.

Continue monitoring

Modular revenue mix. No modular revenue share was disclosed in the release.

Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Whether management attaches any number to the forward view. Prior quarter and this quarter are qualitative-only. Watch whether Q3 introduces any quantitative anchor (FY revenue framing, H2 pace, or a segment-level number) or maintains the qualitative-only posture.

H2 revenue cadence vs. the H1 pace. H1 delivered $6.13B (+53% YoY). Watch whether Q3 prints above $2.9B (H2 running with H1's pace) or steps down materially as comps stiffen.

Backlog absolute level vs. burn. Backlog stepped from $12.45B to $14.06B despite $3.27B of revenue burn — implying gross bookings of ~$4.9B in the quarter, the largest single-quarter booking print in the sequence. Watch whether Q3 backlog holds above $14B (bookings still matching burn) or steps down (peak signal).

Gross margin durability. 25.9% Q2 vs 23.5% Q2 2025 (+240bps YoY). Watch whether Q3 gross margin holds above 25% (structural pricing power) or reverts toward the mid-24s.

Modular revenue share disclosure. Absent from the release. Watch for an updated H1 or Q3 figure.

Capital allocation cadence. Q2 FCF of $999.3M and H1 FCF of $1.24B against cash of $1.85B on the balance sheet. Watch whether Q3 capital deployment (buybacks, dividends, M&A) accelerates or whether net cash continues to build.

Sources

Comfort Systems USA Q2 2026 press release, filed via SEC EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926086255/fix-20260723xex99d1.htm

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