FSLR · Q2 2026 Earnings

Bullish

First Solar

Reported July 30, 2026

30-second summary

First Solar delivered $1.056B revenue (-3.7% YoY) and $3.92 GAAP EPS in Q2, with adjusted EBITDA of $644M at a 61% margin — $144M above the high end of the $400–500M preview range and the cleanest operational quarter of the FY2026 cycle to date. Every FY2026 line item was reaffirmed unchanged, and Q3 module sales are now guided to 3.9–4.5 GW (3.2–3.7 GW from US manufacturing) with EBITDA of $625–775M. The Q1 arithmetic problem — Q2 midpoint of $450M implying $815–915M/qtr in H2 — has been retired: Q2 already delivered inside the H2 run-rate, and the H2 step function no longer requires belief. Revenue missed consensus by 0.4% ($1.056B vs. $1.06B) but the print is otherwise the strongest evidence yet that the 2026 back-end loading is on track.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$3.92

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$1.06B

-3.7% YoY

-0.4% vs est.

Gross margin

Q2 FY2026

57.3%

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

42.6%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$1.06B	$1.10B	-3.7%	$1.04B	+1.1%
EPS	$3.92	$3.18	+23.3%	$3.22	+21.7%
Gross margin	57.3%	45.6%	+1170bps	46.5%	+1080bps
Operating margin	42.6%	33.0%	+960bps	33.0%	+960bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Module Sales Volume	Q2 FY2026	3.4 GW to 4.0 GW	Record second-quarter sales volume	above guide (midpoint 3.7 GW exceeded)	Beat
Adjusted EBITDA	Q2 FY2026	$400 million to $500 million	$644 million	+$144M above guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Module Sales Volume	Q3 FY2026	3.9 GW to 4.5 GW	+145% to +183% YoY
U.S. Manufacturing Module Sales	Q3 FY2026	3.2 GW to 3.7 GW	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Section 45X Tax Credits	Q2 FY2026	$330 million to $400 million	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Revenue ($4.9B to $5.2B), Volume Sold (17.0 GW to 18.2 GW), Gross Profit ($2.4B to $2.6B), Operating Expenses ($610M to $635M), Adjusted EBITDA ($2.6B to $2.8B), Capital Expenditures ($0.8B to $1.0B), Net Cash Balance ($1.7B to $2.3B)

Capacity & utilization

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Module Sales Volume (Q2)	Record second-quarter sales volume	—	—
Contracted Sales Backlog	45.1 GW	—	—
Cumulative Module Sales (Lifetime)	Over 100 GW	—	—
Net Cash Balance	$1.7 billion	$0.6 billion	—
FY2026 Guidance: Volume Sold	17.0 GW to 18.2 GW	—	—
FY2026 Guidance: Net Sales	$4.9B to $5.2B	—	—

Profitability

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Adjusted EBITDA	$644 million	—	—
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	61%	—	—

Management tone

Q2 "Tariffs override the policy tailwind" → Q3 "BP default and structural underutilization" → Q4 "Idle capacity as deliberate option value" → Q1 "Reaffirmed posture; offensive on IP and India" → Q2 "Operational proof lands; forward math de-risked"

No transcript was available this quarter; tone analysis is limited to press release framing.

The press release language — "continued demand for our differentiated technology platform, domestic manufacturing footprint and delivery certainty" and "Our outlook assumes the current U.S. policy environment persists" — is unchanged from prior quarters in substance. The material shift is not in words but in results: for three quarters management has asked investors to trust the H2-loaded FY shape while SE Asia sits idle and backlog contracts. Q2's $644M EBITDA delivered inside the H2 run-rate a quarter early, converting the guide-reaffirmation from an act of faith into an arithmetic near-fait-accompli. That is a tonal shift by evidence, not by language.

The withdrawal of separate 45X disclosure is worth registering. Q4 FY2025 framed 45X as a distinct line requiring monetization discipline; the Q1 45X guide was $330–400M; this quarter both the Q2 actual and forward Q3 guide were rolled into the EBITDA number. Whether this reflects operational integration or a deliberate obscuring of the 45X-dependence ratio (which sat at 75–90% of EBITDA one quarter ago) is not resolvable from the press release alone.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Section 232 decision timing and substance. No update disclosed in the press release. The qualitative language "Our outlook assumes the current U.S. policy environment persists" implies management is now guiding without 232 relief in the base case — a subtle but material shift from the prior "232 is coming next quarter" posture that has been in place for three consecutive quarters. Status: Not resolved

Q2 EBITDA print vs. $400–500M and the implied H2 acceleration. Q2 EBITDA landed at $644M, $144M above the high end of the guide — the cleanest possible resolution. The implied H2 run-rate of $718–818M/qtr is now bracketed by the Q3 guide of $625–775M, meaningfully de-risking the FY reaffirmation. Status: Resolved positively

Gross bookings cadence. Backlog fell to 45.1 GW from 47.9 GW at Q1 end — a further 2.8 GW decline. With Q2 shipments above the 3.4–4.0 GW midpoint (call it ~3.7 GW) and no explicit bookings disclosure, gross bookings ran ~0.9 GW — again well below the shipment pace. The Q1 concern that Q1 was not a timing anomaly is now confirmed. Status: Resolved negatively

45X monetization rate. No 45X figure separately disclosed this quarter, and no Q3 45X guide issued. Whether the ratio to EBITDA has widened, tightened, or stayed at ~75–90% cannot be determined from the press release. Status: Not resolved

ITC Section 337 procedural milestones. No procedural update disclosed in the press release. Status: Continue monitoring

South Carolina facility production start (H2 2026). No slippage disclosed; the 82% US-manufactured mix in the Q3 guide (3.2–3.7 GW of 3.9–4.5 GW) is consistent with the ramp remaining on track. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Q3 EBITDA print vs. $625–775M guide. With H1 at $1.164B and FY guide of $2.6–2.8B, Q3 needs $625–718M to keep Q4 at the same run-rate; anything above $718M lets Q4 come in below the H2 run-rate without threatening the FY range. A Q3 miss below $625M forces a midyear FY cut for the first time this cycle.

Backlog cadence and gross bookings. Two consecutive quarters of 2.2–2.8 GW backlog erosion against shipments; a Q3 update below 43 GW would confirm the demand-side problem is accelerating, not stabilizing.

45X disclosure restoration. The disappearance of separate 45X figures this quarter is either operational simplification or reduced transparency; a resumption in Q3 or a management statement on why the disclosure changed is the read.

Section 232 or ITC 337 movement. The prepared language "current U.S. policy environment persists" has effectively removed 232 upside from the base case. Any decision — positive or negative — is now a delta to guidance, not an assumed input.

Net cash trajectory. $1.7B at Q2 end sits at the low end of the FY $1.7–2.3B guide with two quarters remaining. A Q3 print below $1.7B would force a cut to the FY net cash range, which has been reaffirmed for three consecutive quarters.

South Carolina production ramp. Q3's 3.2–3.7 GW US-manufactured mix implies the domestic capacity ramp is executing; a Q4 volume mix update showing US >4 GW would confirm South Carolina is contributing on schedule.

Sources

First Solar Q2 2026 press release (SEC EX-99.1): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000169/ex991pressreleaseq2-2026.htm
First Solar Q1 2026 Tapebrief (prior watch list and guide baseline).
First Solar Q4 2025 Tapebrief (FY2026 guidance origin).
First Solar Q3 2025 Tapebrief (BP default and backlog context).
First Solar Q2 2025 Tapebrief (multi-quarter tone arc).

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