tapebrief
GEV · Q3 2025

GEV · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bullish

GE Vernova

Reported January 28, 2026

30-second summary

Q4 revenue grew 4% YoY to $11.0B with orders of $22.2B lifting backlog to $150B and gas power equipment backlog reaching 83 GW — above the 70 GW year-end signpost set in Q3. FY2026 guidance is the real signal: revenue $44–45B, adjusted EBITDA margin 11–13% (from 8.4% in 2025), and FCF $5.0–5.5B (from $3.7B), all anchored by 16–18% Power organic growth and ~20% Electrification growth including ~$3B from Prolec GE closing February 2. Wind gets worse before it stabilizes — guided down low-double digits with ~$400M segment EBITDA losses — but management has reframed it as a managed loss against an electrification-and-gas margin compounder.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$13.39

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$11.00B

+4.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

21.2%

Free cash flow

Q4 FY2025

$1.80B

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

5.5%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025
MetricQ4 FY2025YoYQ3 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$11.00B+4.0%$10.00B+10.0%
EPS$13.39—$1.64+716.5%
Gross margin21.2%———
Operating margin5.5%———
Free cash flow$1.80B—$0.73B+145.9%

Guidance

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
RevenueQ4 FY2025May be slightly lower year over year$11.0 billionIn-line with qualitative guidance (YoY +4% vs. qualitative expectation of slightly lower YoY)Beat
Free cash flowFY2025$3.0-$3.5 billion$3.7 billion+$0.2-0.7 billion above guidance high endBeat
Power organic revenue growthFY20256%-7%9%+2-3 percentage points above guidance high endBeat
Wind organic revenue changeFY2025Down high-single digits-6%Better than high-single digit decline; -6% is at the lower end of high-single digits (7-9%)Beat
Electrification organic revenue growthFY2025Trending towards 25%28%+3 percentage points above guidance midpointBeat

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
Adjusted EBITDA marginFY202611%-13%—
Free cash flowFY2026$5.0-$5.5 billion+35-48% vs FY2025 actual of $3.7B
Power organic revenue growthFY202616%-18%+7-11 percentage points acceleration vs FY2025 9% actual
Power segment EBITDA marginFY202616%-18%—
Wind organic revenue changeFY2026Down low-double digits—
Wind segment EBITDA lossesFY2026——

Changes to prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideNew guideΔResult
Adjusted EBITDA margin
FY2025
8%-9%8.4% (actual)Not a guidance change; this is the reported FY2025 actual. No forward guidance provided for FY2026 margin in comparable form.Raised

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025YoY
Power$5.7B+6.0%
Wind$2.4B-24.0%
Electrification$3B+36.0%
Power FY2025$19.8B+9.0%
Wind FY2025$9.1B-6.0%
Electrification FY2025$9.6B+28.0%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025
Orders Q4$22.2B
Orders FY2025$59.3B
Backlog$150B
Gas Power Equipment Backlog83 GW
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Q410.6%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin FY20258.4%
Cash from Operating Activities FY2025$5.0B
Net Income Margin Q433.5%

Management tone

Q1 2025 customer-optimization caveats → Q2 gas backlog momentum → Q3 "potential has grown faster than performance" → Q4 "returns right in front of us less than 180 days from now."

Gas turbine ramp moved from forecast to imminent execution. Through 2025, management framed the gas capacity build as a multi-quarter project with the 80–100 GW threshold as a future evaluation trigger. This quarter Strazik collapsed the timeline: 200 new machines installed and 1,000 production workers added in 2025, with a "substantial step up in gas turbine output in 3Q26." His framing — "These incremental returns are right in front of us less than 180 days from now" — converts what had been a 2027–2028 margin story into a measurable H2 2026 print. The 83 GW backlog (vs. 62 GW one quarter ago) means the capacity threshold has effectively been crossed.

Equipment backlog margin shifted from aspirational target to repeatable operating model. In Q3, management committed to "quantify the change in equipment-backlog margin on the Q4 call." They did: $8B of equipment margin added in 2025 alone — more than the prior two years combined — with explicit commitment to "add at least as much equipment margin dollars in backlog in 26 as in 25." The cumulative anchor — "$22 billion in equipment margin" added across 2023–2026 — is now management's preferred framing of the long-cycle profit lock. This reframes GEV from a cyclical OEM into a multi-year margin compounder where 2027–2028 earnings are already substantially booked.

Electrification has been promoted from emerging growth driver to lead profit engine. Q2 framed it as "strong segment within gas-led story"; Q3 raised the growth rate from ~20% to ~25%; Q4 delivered +28% organic with EBITDA margin expanding 560bps to 14.9%, and a 2026 target of $13.5–14B revenue at 17–19% EBITDA margin. Scott's anchor — "Electrification generated about $5 billion in revenue in 2022, And we now expect that number to be $13.5 to $14 billion in 26" — embeds a ~170% four-year revenue progression that now exceeds Power on margin trajectory. The segment is no longer "supporting" — it is leading.

Wind reframed from drag-requiring-remediation to managed loss with execution dial. Q3 cut the FY revenue guide and tightened EBITDA losses to the worse end. Q4 absorbed an additional ~$200M loss above guide from the offshore stop-work order, but management pivoted the narrative: "customer-facing events are down over 50% in 25 versus 24" and 2026 wind EBITDA losses are guided to ~$400M despite further revenue decline. The implicit message is that wind has been ring-fenced — it is no longer the swing factor for the consolidated print.

Prolec moved from optional consolidation play to imminent integrated business. Q3 disclosed the buyout structure and $800M incremental 2028 revenue contribution. Q4 collapsed the timeline to a Feb 2 close, ~$3B 2026 revenue contribution, and ~$1B incremental capex — all embedded in FY2026 guidance. The deal is no longer an outside-of-guidance optionality argument; it is in the base case.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Gas turbine capacity step-up and production ramp (200 new machines, 1,000 workers, 20 GW output by mid-2026)Equipment backlog margin expansion as repeatable model ($8B in 2025, expected to repeat in 2026)Electrification as accelerating growth and profit engine (26% revenue growth, 560 bps margin expansion, $13.5-14B revenue target)Data center and grid electrification secular tailwind (>$2B in data center orders in 2025, 'over 2 billion of electrification's orders... for data centers in 25, more than triple the 24 total')Wind stabilization via services shift and execution discipline (customer-facing events down 50%, moving to profitable services model)Long-term innovation bets with near-term optionality (SMR, Solid State Transformer, Direct Air Capture, fuel cells)

Risks management surfaced:

U.S. government offshore wind halt creating $250M potential 2026 revenue impact and project delays (Vineyard Wind 90+ day delay minimum)Tariff implementation impacting wind margins ($70M tariff impact noted in Q1 2026 guidance, first-half wind volume has 'fewer contractual protections for tariffs')Supply chain and production ramp execution risk (aggressive capacity adds tied to cash generation and margin targets)Nuclear SMR and Solid State Transformer development timelines and commercialization risks (returns 'not included in our 28 financial outlook')Wind offshore project execution challenges on remaining two projects (acknowledged: 'we continue to have real opportunity to improve on our execution in areas like offshore wind')

Q&A highlights

Joe Ritchie · Goldman Sachs

Asked about gas power equipment order momentum, specifically on the nature of customer discussions, whether customer types have changed, and confirmation of pricing strength in the backlog versus SRAs.

Confirmed 10-20 points of pricing strength in SRAs versus existing backlog. Explained progression from 60 GW to 83 GW due to intense discussions. Projected 100 GW by end of 2026 with expected shift to 60% orders and 40% SRAs, though framework agreements may drive higher SRA numbers.

SRA pricing 10-20 points higher than existing backlogCurrent backlog: 83 GW (40 GW orders, 43 GW SRAs)Projected 100 GW by end of 2026Expected 2026 split: 60% orders (~60 GW), 40% SRAs (~40 GW)

Nigel Coe · Wolf Research

Asked about the 17-point improvement in power backlog margins since year-end 2022 (from approximately break-even), and whether margin expansion should continue in 2026 based on current turbine pricing.

Confirmed year-end 2022 starting point was approximately break-even. Affirmed expectation of continued healthy margin growth in 2026, with plan to add at least $8 billion of equipment margin to backlog (matching 2025). Also highlighted service contract pricing acceleration alongside equipment margin accretion.

2022 year-end backlog margins approximately break-even17 points of margin improvement achieved through end of 2025Target: at least $8 billion equipment margin addition in 20262025 added $12 billion equipment backlog and $9 billion services backlog

Mark Sress · J.P. Morgan

Asked how much of electrification's record 4Q orders are driven by overall market strength versus GE-specific market share gains, and touched on the opportunity and competitive advantages.

Emphasized GE's unique ability to link power generation and electrical equipment, positioning for outsized growth. Noted $14 billion revenue target for 2026 against a $150 billion addressable market (10% penetration). Highlighted operational improvements (doubling transformers/switchgears output 2024-2028) and innovation (solid-state transformers). Explained strategic value of Prolec acquisition for global transformer optimization and data center distribution transformer supply.

Electrification $14 billion revenue target for 2026$150 billion addressable marketCurrently at ~10% market penetrationPlan to double transformers and switchgears output 2024-2028

Julian Mitchell · Barclays

Asked about competitive threat from smaller turbine makers and whether repurposed aero-engine applications could pressure equipment pricing and market share.

Minimized competitive threat, noting smaller applications are enabling earlier power while GE waits for heavy-duty capacity availability, then smaller units become reliability solutions. Emphasized economics and efficiency matter in 20-year business cases, where heavy-duty turbines have superior value. Noted GE also competes in aero-derivative segment (63 units booked in 2025, up YoY), informing perspective on market dynamics.

SRAs priced 10-20 points higher than backlogAero derivative units: 63 booked in 2025 (up significantly YoY)Smaller applications serve near-term gap before heavy-duty capacityLong-term economics favor heavy-duty turbines on base-load efficiency

David Arcaro · Morgan Stanley

Asked about momentum in nuclear SMR space, whether project opportunities have accelerated, and potential for more SMR deal announcements.

Described nuclear opportunity as significant but with sequential progression differing from gas/grid. Noted discussions progressing with U.S. administration, Sweden, and Poland, but characterized timing as slower to close. Emphasized work with hyperscalers and governments on what SMR deployment could mean for 'first half of the next decade,' with opportunities maturing but timing uncertain.

Active discussions with U.S. administration on nuclear restartProductive conversations in Sweden and PolandHyperscaler engagement underwayDeal closures expected in 'first half of next decade'

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Gas power backlog crossing 70 GW and the 80–100 GW capacity-expansion threshold — Resolved positively. Backlog reached 83 GW at year-end, well above the 70 GW signpost, and management has now committed to a substantial Q3 2026 gas turbine output step-up with 200 new machines installed and 1,000 production workers added in 2025. The capacity threshold has effectively been crossed.
Resolved positively
Q4 EBITDA margin print vs. the 8–9% FY range — Resolved positively. Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin printed 10.6%, well above the FY range, lifting FY to 8.4% — within guide and validating the operating leverage narrative despite the wind miss.
Resolved positively
December 9 investor update / 2028 framework refresh — Continue monitoring. The FY2026 guide (11–13% EBITDA margin, $44–45B revenue) implicitly puts the 20% EBITDA margin target within line-of-sight for 2028, but management has not yet quantified Prolec revenue synergies and long-term Power margins above the prior ~25% peak remain undeclared.
Continue monitoring
Hyperscaler electrification orders quarterly run-rate — Resolved positively. Electrification data center orders exceeded $2B for the full year, more than triple 2024, confirming the sustained run-rate. Q3's $400M cadence has held or improved.
Resolved positively
Wind segment EBITDA loss vs. ~$400M FY guide — Resolved negatively. Wind EBITDA losses came in at ~$600M (~$200M worse than guide) due to the U.S. offshore stop-work order. FY2026 wind is now guided to down low-double digits with ~$400M of EBITDA losses, signaling continued structural drag.
Resolved negatively
Tariff/inflation landing at low end of $300–400M — Continue monitoring. Management flagged a $70M tariff impact in Q1 2026 wind guidance specifically, and noted first-half wind volume has "fewer contractual protections for tariffs." The consolidated tariff outcome was not quantified in the press release.
Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 2026 Power segment EBITDA margin print of ~14–15% as guided — the first proof point that the FY 16–18% Power margin guide is on trajectory.

Whether gas equipment backlog progresses toward the 100 GW year-end 2026 target at the Q1/Q2 cadence implied by 2025's 23 GW annual addition — and whether SRA-to-firm-order conversion ratios hold.

Prolec integration milestones post-Feb 2 close — particularly whether Q1/Q2 results validate the ~$3B 2026 revenue contribution and whether revenue synergies start getting quantified outside of guidance.

Wind EBITDA loss trajectory through H1 2026 vs the ~$400M FY framework, especially Q1 tariff impact and any signal on resumption of the Vineyard Wind installation.

Whether Electrification orders sustain the >$2B annual data center pace and whether the $13.5–14B 2026 revenue guide gets revised upward mid-year — Q4's +36% YoY print suggests the FY ~20% organic guide is conservative.

First disclosure of equipment backlog margin added in 2026 vs the "at least $8B" commitment — the cleanest read on whether the multi-year margin compounder thesis is intact.

Sources

  1. GE Vernova Q4 2025 Press Release (SEC EDGAR, January 28, 2026) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1996810/000199681026000012/gevpressrelease4q25.htm
  2. GE Vernova Q3 2025 Tapebrief (October 22, 2025) — prior quarter context.

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