GILD · Q2 2025 Earnings
BullishGilead Sciences
Reported August 7, 2025
30-second summary
30-second take: Gilead raised full-year product sales and EPS guidance on the back of a faster-than-expected Yeztugo (lenacapavir for PrEP) launch and accelerating Biktarvy/Descovy demand, with HIV growth assumptions lifted from flat to ~3%. Q2 FY2025 revenue of $7.08B grew 2% YoY despite a $1.1B Medicare Part D redesign headwind and a 44% collapse in Veklury; ex-Veklury product sales grew at a much healthier underlying rate. The stock's setup hinges on whether Yeztugo access expands on the cadence management implied (75% at 6 months, 90% at 12) and whether MFN/Medicaid pricing risk stays in the 2026-2027 legislative window.
Headline numbers
EPS
Q2 FY2025
$2.01
Revenue
Q2 FY2025
$7.08B
+2.0% YoY
Gross margin
Q2 FY2025
78.7%
Free cash flow
Q2 FY2025
$0.72B
Operating margin
Q2 FY2025
34.9%
Key financials
Q2 FY2025| Metric | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.08B | +2.0% |
| EPS | $2.01 | — |
| Gross margin | 78.7% | — |
| Operating margin | 34.9% | — |
| Free cash flow | $0.72B | — |
Guidance
Prior quarter data unavailable — comparison not possible.
Segment KPIs
Q2 FY2025| Segment | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| HIV | $5.088B | +7.0% |
| Biktarvy | $3.53B | +9.0% |
| Descovy | $0.653B | +35.0% |
| Liver Disease | $0.795B | -4.0% |
| Oncology | $0.849B | +1.0% |
| Trodelvy | $0.364B | +14.0% |
| Yescarta | $0.393B | -5.0% |
| Veklury | $0.121B | -44.0% |
| Product Sales Excluding Veklury | $6.934 billion | — |
Other KPIs
Q2 FY2025| Segment | Q2 FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Non-GAAP Product Gross Margin | 86.9% |
| Non-GAAP Operating Margin | 46.5% |
| R&D Expenses as % of Revenues | 21.1% |
| Operating Cash Flow | $827 million |
| Cash and Equivalents | $7.1 billion |
Management tone
The bullish posture is a clear step-up from Gilead's typically measured communication style. Three shifts stand out.
HIV growth assumption raised mid-year from flat to ~3%. Management explicitly walked back the prior cautious framing: "We're increasing our full year sales guidance and now expect HIV sales to grow approximately 3% in 2025, up from our prior assumption of flat revenue year over year." The unstated subtext — "Excluding this headwind, HIV growth this year would be more than 7%" — signals management views the Part D redesign as a one-time reset rather than a structural step-down.
Yeztugo (lenacapavir for PrEP) reframed from "launch" to "milestone." Management deployed language they rarely use: "This is truly a milestone moment in the history of HIV, with the launch of a groundbreaking innovation that could bend the arc of the epidemic." Early metrics back the rhetoric — 72% unaided awareness at launch vs. an industry norm in the 30s, J-code approval pulled forward 2-3 quarters to October 1, and first scripts written within hours. Despite this, management did NOT raise Yeztugo-specific assumptions in guidance, calling the raise a function of base HIV demand rather than the new launch. That conservatism is either disciplined or telegraphing further upside.
Lenacapavir pipeline scope expanded materially. What was previously a single-product story is now framed as a platform: "up to eight additional HIV product launches before the end of 2033, including five that would come to market by the end of 2030," with Purpose 365 (once-yearly intramuscular) just initiated. The strategic framing has shifted from defending HIV revenue to extending the franchise into the 2030s.
Cell therapy reframed from headwind to recovering category. FDA removal of the CAR-T REMS requirement plus real-world outpatient Yescarta data are positioned as removing adoption barriers — a more constructive framing than prior commentary acknowledging competitive pressure, even though cell therapy revenue is still declining.
Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:
Risks management surfaced:
Q&A highlights
Terrence Flynn · Morgan Stanley
How durable is Discovy's robust growth trajectory (tracking well above the 8% long-term guidance) given market dynamics and the Yes to Go launch? Also, any visibility on Yes to Go IQ via data accuracy?
PrEP market growing double-digit at ~15% year-over-year. Discovy at 35% share due to favorable access (copays $0 in many cases), now at 88% unrestricted access and 98% total covered lives. Expected mix shift as Yes to Go ramps. IQVIA data is directionally aligned but still early; need a couple more quarters to normalize. Internal tracking of scripts and actual injections is closer to reality than IQVIA channel gaps.
Tyler Van Buren · TD Cowan
Can you elaborate on early Yes to Go uptake and whether early prescriptions will trend linearly or follow an exponential launch curve?
Six weeks in, very pleased with launch momentum. Over 25,000 customer calls executed against ~15,000 target customer base (many contacted multiple times). 72% unaided awareness at launch (vs. industry norm of ~30s), 95%+ aided awareness. First script within hours, injection within couple days. Expect ~75% access at 6 months, ~90% at 12 months. J code confirmed for October 1st (ahead of typical 2-3 quarter timeline). Early commercial and state Medicaid wins; California and Florida (two of four largest prevention states) live as of August 1st. 200+ payer accounts engaged.
Umar Rafat · PEPR-Corps
In a scenario where the industry converges on an MFN (Most Favored Nation) proposal focused on Medicaid, how would Gilead's revenue and business be impacted, including mandatory and CPI rates?
Management acknowledged MFN discussions with administration but emphasized strong patent protection until end of 2033 with robust pipeline. HIV Medicaid business is mid-to-lower 20% of business. Patient out-of-pocket costs already very low ($0 or couple dollars). Most MFN legislation has implications late 2026 into 2027, no immediate impact. HIV is differentiated due to public health externalities; multiple safety net programs (state, ADAP, foundations, Gilead access programs) ensure patient access. No specific revenue quantification provided.
Chris Schott · JPMorgan
What is confidence level on the 4182-1720 weekly treatment combo (WONDERS program) following the clinical hold announced earlier this year? What are next updates to watch and how does it stack against other treatment combos in development?
High confidence in treatment pipeline overall. Portfolio includes weekly, daily, monthly, quarterly, and semi-annual approaches across multiple molecule classes. Currently analyzing the clinical hold observation through preclinical and clinical analysis to isolate which molecule caused the issue, then will move expeditiously with another molecule in portfolio in new combination. Phase III Island Program (Latravia + Lena Capovia) ongoing, next update 2026, estimated launch 2027. WONDER program succession will be updated in due course.
Courtney Breen · Bernstein
Given positive early Yes to Go launch results (access, script-to-injection conversion), why didn't guidance get raised for the remainder of 2024? What remain as key question marks before raising expectations?
Only six weeks into launch (very early stage). Access remains critical; working through medical exception one-offs with field reimbursement and payers. Need to see covered lives increase over next quarter or two before pulling through scripts and injections at scale. Asked to revisit question in couple of quarters.
What to watch into next quarter
Yeztugo access ramp: management telegraphed ~75% covered lives at 6 months. Q3 FY2025 print should show meaningful progress toward that bar; anything below 60% by Q3 would suggest the launch curve is flatter than implied.
Descovy growth sustainability: 35% YoY is well above the historical 8% long-term assumption. Watch whether share gain into the 44-45% range continues or whether Yeztugo begins to cannibalize the script base materially.
HIV ex-Part D growth disclosure: management hinted underlying HIV growth would be >7% ex-headwind. Watch whether Q3 FY2025 commentary continues to bridge reported vs. underlying — the gap is the bull case.
MFN/Medicaid policy clarity: management dodged quantifying downside. Any disclosed framework or scenario analysis at Q3 FY2025 — even directional — would materially de-risk the pipeline story.
4182-1720 clinical hold resolution: management committed to moving "expeditiously" with an alternative molecule. A specific replacement compound or restart timeline by Q3 FY2025 would confirm the WONDER program is recoverable; silence is a red flag.
Trodelvy first-line TNBC regulatory path: with 11.2-month PFS data in hand, watch for sBLA filing timing — the addressable patient population doubles in first-line.
Sources
- Gilead Sciences Q2 FY2025 press release and financial tables (SEC EDGAR exhibit 99.1), 2025-08-07: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209525000030/exhibit991earningspressrel.htm
- Gilead Sciences Q2 FY2025 earnings call commentary and Q&A (as captured in extraction inputs)
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