GIS · Q4 2026 Earnings

Bearish

General Mills

Reported July 1, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: Q4 organic sales came in flat, adj. operating margin recovered to 15.3% from Q3's 12.3%, and adj. EPS of $0.95 beat the operational bar the watch list called for. Then management issued an FY27 guide that takes adj. EPS to $3.00-$3.20 from the $3.55 FY26 print (down 9.9% to 15.5% YoY), organic sales down 1.5% to up 0.5%, and adjusted operating profit down 8-13% constant currency — a second consecutive investment-year framing on top of the FY26 reset. The bull case now compounds: two consecutive years of double-digit EPS declines with cost savings ($750M in FY27) explicitly framed as being outpaced by 53rd-week lap, incentive normalization, divestitures, and a "continued challenging consumer backdrop." FY26 was supposed to be the reset year. FY27 is now a second reset year.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2026

$0.95

+18.8% vs est.

Revenue

Q4 FY2026

$4.61B

+1.0% YoY

+0.2% vs est.

Gross margin

Q4 FY2026

34.8%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2026

-45.4%

Key financials

Q4 FY2026

Metric	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$4.61B	$4.56B	+1.2%	$4.40B	+4.8%
EPS	$0.95	$0.74	+28.4%	$0.64	+48.4%
Gross margin	34.8%	32.4%	+240bps	30.8%	+400bps
Operating margin	-45.4%	11.1%	-5650bps	11.8%	-5720bps

Guidance

FY2027 guidance reflects significant earnings and margin headwinds despite continued cost savings; organic sales expected to remain under pressure amid weak consumer environment.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Organic net sales growth	FY2026	down 1.5 to 2 percent	-2%	at low end of guide	Beat
Adjusted operating profit growth	FY2026	down 16 to 20 percent in constant currency	reported adjusted operating profit margin of 15.3% in Q4	within range	Met
Adjusted diluted EPS	FY2026	down 16 to 20 percent in constant currency	$3.55	above guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Adjusted diluted EPS	FY2027	$3.00 to $3.20	-15.5% to -9.9% YoY
Organic net sales growth	FY2027	down 1.5% to up 0.5%	—
Adjusted operating profit growth	FY2027	down 13% to down 8% in constant currency (from $2.8B base)	—
Cost savings	FY2027	at least $750 million	—

Segment performance

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY
North America Retail	$2.47B	$2.56B	-3.5%
International	$0.86B	$0.739B	+16.4%
North America Pet	$0.7B	$0.675B	+3.7%
North America Foodservice	$0.57B	$0.579B	-1.6%

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Organic Net Sales Growth (Q4)	flat	-3%	—
Organic Net Sales Growth (FY)	-2%	—	—
Volume Growth (Q4, organic)	-2 pts	—	—
Price/Mix Growth (Q4, organic)	+2 pts	—	—

Profitability

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Adjusted Gross Margin (Q4)	34.2%	—	—
Adjusted Operating Profit Margin (Q4)	15.3%	—	—
Adjusted Operating Profit Growth (Q4, constant currency)	+13%	—	—
Operating Cash Flow (FY)	$2.2B	—	—

Management tone

Read below is anchored in the press-release language versus prior Tapebrief briefs' framing.

Q4 FY26's outlook language — "category growth to be consistent with recent trends and below its long-term historical growth rate, driven by a continued challenging consumer backdrop" — hardens the category-weakness framing for a second consecutive year. What was described as a discrete FY26 headwind is now the base case for FY27 as well. This is the language of a management team that has stopped forecasting mean-reversion and started underwriting the current environment as the operating condition. The FY26 investment-year thesis was sold on trading a year of EPS for volume recovery; volume returned negative and now FY27 is being sold on a similar trade.

The lever has moved to innovation. Per the release, "the company expects to shift its focus in fiscal 2027 to product innovation and renovation news centered on the benefits that matter most to today's consumers." Harmening's quoted framing is that "with our price investment work behind us, our focus in fiscal 2027 is to improve our topline growth by driving a step change in the remarkability of our brands." The locus of the growth thesis has moved from price investment (FY26) to innovation/renovation (FY27); each pivot in the reset cycle has arrived alongside a fresh guide step-down.

Cost savings scaled up, framed as insufficient. FY27 names $750M in gross savings — inside a new $3B cumulative target through FY2030 (roughly $2B from HMM at ~4% of COGS annually, ~$1B from global transformation) — but the outlook explicitly names offsetting headwinds of "approximately 9 points on operating profit and 11 points on EPS" from 53rd-week lap, incentive normalization, and divestitures. This is a management team pre-writing the "cost saves were real, but reinvestment and lap effects consumed them" narrative for FY27 in advance. When the savings target grows and the guide still moves lower, the credibility of savings as a P&L lever weakens.

Free cash flow conversion softened from "at least 95%" to "approximately 95%" — and FY26 missed at 85%. The one anchor that had held clean through the entire reset cycle both softened in wording and missed the prior FY26 target by 10 points. It converts "reaffirmed cash generation" from a bull-case anchor into an open question, especially as FY27 EPS steps down another 10-16% off a base that just underconverted to cash.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q4 adj. EPS lands inside the implied $0.85-$1.00 band needed to reach the new FY range. Adj. EPS printed $0.95 — near the top of the required band — and FY26 landed at $3.55, at the favorable end of the March cut guide. The FY range that was cut in March was met at the top. Status: Resolved positively

Whether Q4 adj. gross margin recovers above 32%. Adj. gross margin came in at 34.2% (+150bps YoY), cleanly above the 32% breakpoint. The operational anchor held. Status: Resolved positively

The specific FY27 gross margin target flagged by the prior Tapebrief brief. No FY27 gross margin percentage target was disclosed in the press release. FY27 is guided as adj. operating profit -8% to -13% cc off the $2.8B FY26 base. Any commentary on gross-margin percentage bogey appears deferred, potentially to the webcasted Q&A or a subsequent forum. Status: Not resolved

Q4 North America Retail organic sales. Segment organic printed flat in Q4 (volume -2pts, price/mix +2pts). Consolidated Q4 organic was also flat, better than the -2% watch-list bar. Status: Resolved positively

Quantified Q4 mechanical contribution (retailer inventory reset and trade-expense timing). The press release discloses favorable trade expense timing as a 1-point benefit to consolidated organic net sales and a 60bps benefit to adjusted gross margin. Within North America Retail, favorable trade expense timing was a 2-point benefit to segment organic net sales and a 9-point benefit to segment operating profit. Consolidated organic printed flat — roughly one point of mechanical benefit and one point of underlying softness. Directional read: neutral. Status: Resolved (mixed)

Any further Totino's read. The press release did not name Totino's specifically. No clean read. Status: Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q1 FY27 organic net sales prints above -1%. The FY27 range is -1.5% to +0.5%; the Q4 FY26 flat print set a plausible entry point. Q1 below -1% would signal the FY27 guide is already on the same trajectory as FY26's, and a mid-year cut becomes the base case again.

Q1 FY27 adj. EPS as % of the $3.00-$3.20 FY range. If Q1 lands materially below ~24% of the FY27 $3.10 midpoint (~$0.72), the phasing is unfavorable and the range is at risk.

Whether the FY27 $750M cost-save commitment is quantified quarterly. Watch whether Q1 breaks out realized savings against the target — if not, the framing becomes a full-year narrative without quarterly checkpoints.

A specific FY27 adjusted gross margin target. Q4 came and went without one. Continued silence would suggest a Street ~34% bogey is a stretch.

Whether FY27 FCF conversion tracks toward 95%. After FY26 landed at 85% versus an "at least 95%" guide, the softened FY27 wording ("approximately 95%") is the anchor to watch. Continued working-capital underconversion in Q1-Q2 would miss the FY27 target and further undermine the cash-generation anchor.

Whether Blue Buffalo fresh gets quantified for the first time. A fifth quarter of silence with a second consecutive investment-year guide in place would force investors to underwrite the multi-year pet thesis on faith alone — particularly given the $1.5B non-cash goodwill impairment taken on the North America Pet reporting unit in Q4 and the $250M brand intangible impairments on Nudges and True Chews.

International segment underlying growth ex-timing. +16% reported in Q4 is anomalous versus organic +3%. Watch whether Q1 FY27 shows the reciprocal reversal as the 53rd-week and FX tailwinds unwind — if so, Q4 was a timing pull-forward, not a genuine acceleration.

Brazil divestiture close. The $1.0B non-cash valuation loss is booked; the sale to 3corações is anticipated to close in calendar 2026 subject to regulatory approvals. Watch for closing timing and any adjustment to net proceeds.

Sources

General Mills Q4 and full-year fiscal 2026 press release (SEC filing): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40704/000162828026046337/a20260701ex99.htm
Tapebrief Q3 FY2026 brief (March 2026) for prior watch list and FY26 cut guide baselines.
Tapebrief Q2 FY2026 brief (December 2025) and Q1 FY2026 brief (September 2025) for narrative-arc context.
Tapebrief Q4 FY2025 brief (June 2025) for original FY26 guide framing and FY25 adj. EPS base of $4.21.

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