tapebrief
GS · Q2 2025

GS · Q3 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Goldman Sachs

Reported October 14, 2025

30-second summary

Goldman printed $15.18B revenue (+20% YoY) and $12.25 GAAP EPS, with M&A YTD volumes crossing $1 trillion — $220B ahead of the nearest competitor — and alternatives fundraising guidance raised hard to ~$100B for FY25 (vs. prior "in line with recent years"). The headline shift is structural: management launched "Goldman Sachs 3.0," an AI-driven centralized operating model, and reframed the H2 cautionary tone from last quarter ("more muted results") into an offensive posture leaning on a 12–24 month IB upswing. AWM grew 17% YoY, fully resolving last quarter's harvesting concern.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2025

$12.25

Revenue

Q3 FY2025

$15.18B

+20.0% YoY

Operating margin

Q3 FY2025

62.2%

Key financials

Q3 FY2025
MetricQ3 FY2025YoYQ2 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$15.18B+20.0%$14.58B+4.1%
EPS$12.25—$10.91+12.3%
Operating margin62.2%—63.4%-120bps

Guidance

Alternatives fundraising guidance substantially raised to ~$100B for FY2025, significantly exceeding prior 'in-line' expectations; tax rate reaffirmed.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Changes to prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideNew guideΔResult
Alternatives Fundraising
FY2025
in line with recent yearsapproximately $100 billionqualitative upgrade from 'in line with recent years' to $100B (substantially exceeding prior expectations)Raised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Effective Tax Rate (approximately 22%)

Segment performance

Q3 FY2025
SegmentQ3 FY2025YoY
Global Banking & Markets$10.115B+18.0%
Asset & Wealth Management$4.399B+17.0%
Platform Solutions$0.67B+71.0%
Investment Banking Fees$2.66 billion—

Capital & returns

Q3 FY2025
SegmentQ3 FY2025
Return on Equity (Annualized)14.2%
Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio (Advanced)15.2%
Book Value Per Share$353.79
Total Deposits$490 billion

Other KPIs

Q3 FY2025
SegmentQ3 FY2025YoY
Americas$10.02B+24.5%
EMEA$3.163B+2.8%
Asia$2.001B+26.9%
Assets Under Supervision$3.452 trillion—
Efficiency Ratio (YTD)62.1%—
Global Core Liquid Assets$481 billion—

Management tone

Narrative arc: M&A pipeline optimism (Q2) → Quantified market dominance and AI reorg (Q3).

The competitive framing moved from relative to absolute. Last quarter Solomon talked about share gains and a strengthening client franchise; this quarter he put a hard number on the gap: "We hit the milestone of advising on over $1 trillion in announced M&A volumes for 2025 year-to-date. This is $220 billion ahead of our next closest competitor and underscores our dominant position as the advisor of choice." The shift from "leading" to "dominant by $220B" is unusual for Goldman communications and signals management believes the cycle position justifies less hedged language.

AI evolved from rollout to reorganization in one quarter. Q2's framing was tactical — GSAI deployed firmwide, Devin in pilot. Q3 escalated to structural: "earlier this morning, we announced to our people the launch of one Goldman Sachs 3.0. Propelled by AI, this is a new, more centralized operating model that we expect to drive efficiencies and create capacity for future growth. This is a multi-year effort." Centralizing the operating model is a far bigger commitment than deploying tools — it implies headcount, org chart, and incentive changes that will be hard to reverse. The January call is flagged for additional detail.

The H2 caution was quietly withdrawn. Q2 explicitly warned AWM harvesting would be "more muted relative to medium-term run rate expectations." That language is gone, and AWM grew 17%. Management replaced it with: "we are confident in the outlook for our businesses and our ability to continue to deliver for shareholders." The substitution is meaningful because it's the same metric being re-described from caution to confidence within 90 days.

Alternatives went from steady-state to standout. Last quarter management guided alts fundraising "in line with recent years." Three months later: "we now expect to raise approximately 100 billion in alternatives this year, substantially exceeding our prior full-year fundraising expectations." The explicit acknowledgment that prior guidance was conservative is itself the tone shift — Goldman rarely concedes its own forecasting was light.

Risk framing acknowledged exuberance without retreating from positioning. Solomon paired the bullish posture with: "the market operates in cycles, and disciplined risk management is imperative." This is philosophical cover, not a guidance hedge — but worth noting as the only meaningful counter-narrative on the call.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

M&A market inflection and competitive dominanceAlternatives fundraising acceleration exceeding guidanceAI-driven operating model transformationAWM durable revenue growth and market share gainsOne Goldman Sachs integration creating cross-business multiplier effectsDisciplined risk management amid market exuberance

Risks management surfaced:

Investor exuberance in equity markets may not persist; history shows divergence between winners and losers in technology cyclesPolicy uncertainty for corporate clients, though stated as lesseningRegulatory framework outstanding (NPR and CCAR averaging still unresolved)Credit losses in credit card portfolioMarket cyclicality requiring disciplined risk management

Q&A highlights

Glenn Shore · Evercore

Follow-up on SRT (synthetic risk transfer) activity and what loans are moving off balance sheet, and inquiry into the drivers and rationale behind Goldman Sachs 3.0 strategy given strong revenue performance.

Management characterized SRT as ordinary course risk management and prudent portfolio hedging, with no warning signs. On Goldman Sachs 3.0, emphasized that technology evolution is enabling enterprises to reimagine operating processes for automation, efficiency, and scale, with the goal of creating capacity for business growth rather than addressing revenue issues.

SRT described as one of several available risk management toolsNo flashing warning signs on SRT activityGoldman Sachs 3.0 driven by technology enabling automation and efficiencyStrategy maintains investment in growth alongside operational improvements

Ibrahim Poonawalla · Bank of America

Questions about NDFI lending risks, potential shareholder losses from private credit exposures, impact on private credit growth strategy, and expectations around regulatory changes (G-SIB surcharge, Basel endgame).

Management emphasized strong risk management culture and underwriting standards; vast majority of lending is collateralized and investment-grade rated. No direct exposure to named problem cases. Expressed confidence in diversified portfolio and stringent internal standards. On regulation, expects real progress in fall 2025 and H1 2026, with anticipated SLR relief, CCAR transparency, GSIB recalibration, and constructive Basel III endgame.

Vast majority of lending is collateralized and investment-grade ratedNo direct exposure to Firstmark or TriColorPortfolio underwritten on bespoke basis with stringent diversification and concentration limitsReal regulatory progress expected fall 2025 and H1 2026

Erica Najarian · UBS

Question on growth opportunities within Goldman Sachs 3.0 that could stabilize or enhance 15% ROE target and inquiry on potential for larger acquisitions in asset and wealth management given T. Rowe and Industry Ventures announcements.

Reiterated two-pronged strategy: banking and markets as mid-teens return business through the cycle, with asset and wealth management as growth channel with margin upside. Highlighted ultra-high net worth wealth franchise strategy (not broad wealth channels) paired with asset management manufacturing. Signaled bar for large acquisitions is very high; best wealth platforms are sold, not bought.

Banking and markets: mid-teens return business through the cycleAsset and wealth management: growth channel with confidence in return uplifts over next couple yearsStrategy focused on ultra-high net worth franchise, not broad wealth marketT. Rowe and Industry Ventures acquisitions on-strategy for enhancing distribution

Christian Ballou · Autonomous Research

Questions on equities business underperformance vs. peers, cash equity intermediation revenue decline, and collateral risk management processes given FirstMark and TriColor fraud cases.

Attributed equities underperformance to difficult cash equity comps (prior year up ~30%, prior quarter top decile), while highlighting strong derivative and financing components. Noted best year-to-date equities performance ever. On collateral risk, emphasized consistent underwriting standards, upfront due diligence, ongoing monitoring, diversification limits, and selective credit extension.

Best year-to-date equities performance ever despite quarterly softnessPrior year cash equity activity up ~30%; prior quarter was top decileDerivative and financing components continuing to perform extremely wellFinancing piece recorded record results

Mike Mayo · Wells Fargo Securities

Questions on Goldman Sachs 3.0 rationale and platform solutions' fit, Apple Card status, backlog composition, and FIC/equity financing contribution to revenue.

Confirmed backlog at highest level in three years despite high prior quarter accruals. Clarified that FIC and equity financing combined now represent 40% of FIC and equity lines combined (up from 33% QoQ), reflecting steady two-year growth in financing revenue streams. Declined to provide Apple Card timing, stating it is not a go-forward focus and will update when material news available.

Backlog highest in three yearsFIC and equity financing at 40% of combined lines (up from 33%)Steady two-year growth in financing revenue contributionCredit cards not a go-forward focus for Goldman Sachs

Answers to last quarter's watch list

CET1 trajectory toward a 50–100bps buffer over 10.9%. CET1 (Standardized, the binding ratio) printed 14.4% — Goldman is still carrying ~350bps above the 10.9% requirement and showed no signs of working it down ahead of regulatory clarity. Poonawalla's Q&A confirmed management is waiting for the fall 2025 / H1 2026 regulatory milestones before deploying.
Continue monitoring
AWM revenue trend in Q3. AWM grew 17% YoY to $4.40B — a clean reversal of Q2 weakness and a direct contradiction of last quarter's H2 "more muted" warning. The fee-based durability thesis is intact and management dropped the cautionary framing.
Resolved positively
Investment banking backlog conversion. IB fees of $2.66B exceeded Q2's $2.19B by 21% QoQ; Coleman confirmed backlog is at a three-year high and sponsors are tracking +40% YoY activity with >$1T dry powder. The $1T YTD M&A milestone validates the pipeline rhetoric explicitly.
Resolved positively
Efficiency ratio direction. YTD efficiency ratio is 62.1%, essentially flat vs. Q2 YTD 62.0%. No compression yet — but Goldman Sachs 3.0 was framed as a multi-year effort with detail coming in January, so this quarter is too early to read.
Continue monitoring
Equities revenue sustainability. Management characterized YTD equities as "best ever" with quarterly softness blamed on comps (prior year +30%, prior quarter top decile). Financing within equities posted record results ($1.72B, +33% YoY). Run-rate looks sustainable; the quarterly print is noise.
Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Goldman Sachs 3.0 quantification on the January call. Management explicitly promised additional detail. Watch for headcount targets, charge magnitude, efficiency ratio trajectory, and timeline — without these, "multi-year transformational AI reorg" remains slideware.

Alternatives fundraising trajectory beyond $100B. Q3 raised $33B alone; if Q4 maintains pace, the FY26 starting bar resets materially higher. Watch whether management gives an FY26 number on the January call or stays qualitative.

CET1 deployment behavior post-regulatory clarity. SLR relief and CCAR transparency are flagged for fall 2025/H1 2026. Any CET1 (Standardized) step-down below 13.5% in Q4 would signal management is front-running the rules; staying at 14.4% means they're still waiting.

IB fees vs. Q3's $2.66B baseline. Backlog is at a three-year high. A sequential Q4 print below $2.66B with backlog flat would be the first sign the conversion lag is longer than management implies.

Equities revenue level in Q4 against a tougher comp. Q4 will face elevated prior-year comparisons. A clean number above $4B with financing leading would validate the structural shift; anything in the low-$3Bs reopens the cyclical-peak debate.

AWM management-and-other-fee line carrying the 17% growth forward. This was last quarter's worry, fully resolved this quarter. A regression in Q4 — particularly if accompanied by language re-introducing harvesting caution — would reopen the durability question.

Sources

  1. Goldman Sachs Q3 2025 earnings press release (SEC EDGAR, exhibit 99.1, October 14 2025)
  2. Goldman Sachs Q3 2025 earnings call prepared remarks and Q&A (as provided in extraction inputs)

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