tapebrief
HBAN · Q2 2025
Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

HBAN · Q3 2025 Earnings

Huntington Bancshares

Reported October 17, 2025

30-second summary

Huntington delivered $2.15B of revenue (+14% YoY; +10% QoQ on a reported basis, boosted by a Q3 gain on sale of a portion of the corporate trust/custody business and an FDIC assessment benefit, as well as the absence of a $58M Q2 securities loss), NIM of 3.13%, and ROTCE of 17.8% — then raised standalone FY25 NII growth to 10–11% from 8–9%, the second consecutive 200bps midpoint raise in as many quarters. Management committed to ≥10bps of further NIM expansion in 2026 "in Fed Funds scenarios ranging from zero to as many as seven cuts" and flagged that ROTCE has already cleared the high end of its 16–17% medium-term range, leaving the target itself up for revision. The Q4 print will carry $125–150M of Veritex one-time costs at close, but underlying operating leverage guidance of >250bps is now triple the 100bps starting-of-year baseline.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2025

$0.41

Revenue

Q3 FY2025

$2.15B

+14.0% YoY

Key financials

Q3 FY2025
MetricQ3 FY2025YoYQ2 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$2.15B+14.0%$1.50B+43.4%
EPS$0.41—$0.34+20.6%

Guidance

Hunt

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
Operating leverageFY 2025Over 250 basis points expected—
Tax rateFY 2025Between 17.5% and 18%—
Standalone Huntington NIMQ4 FY2025Expected to rise between 1 and 2 basis points from Q3 level—
Veritex NIM contributionQ4 FY2025Expected to lift Q4 reported NIM by 2 to 3 basis points—
Core PPNR benefit from VeritexQ4 FY2025Approximately $20 million, equating to about a penny of earnings per share—
Acquisition-related one-time expensesQ4 FY2025Approximately $125 to $150 million—

Changes to prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideNew guideΔResult
Loan growth - standalone basis
FY 2025
6% to 8%Approximately 8%+0 to +2 percentage points (midpoint raised from 7% to 8%)Raised
Deposit growth - standalone basis
FY 2025
4% to 6%Approximately 5.5%+0.5 percentage points at midpoint (5.5% vs prior 5%)Raised
Net interest income growth - standalone basis
FY 2025
8% to 9%10% to 11%+2 percentage points (range raised from 8-9% to 10-11%)Raised
Fee income growth - standalone basis
FY 2025
4% to 6%Approximately 7%+1 percentage point at low end (7% vs prior 6% high end)Raised
Non-interest expense growth
FY 2025
5% to 6%6.5%+0.5 to +1.5 percentage points (6.5% vs prior 5-6% range)Raised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Net charge-offs (At or below the midpoint of the range)

Segment performance

Q3 FY2025
SegmentQ3 FY2025YoY
Consumer & Regional Banking - Loans$75.027B+5.9%
Commercial Banking - Loans$62.755B+13.2%
Commercial Loans - C&I$62.978B+17.4%
Consumer Loans - Auto$15.996B+14.3%
Consumer Loans - Residential Mortgage$24.502B+1.7%

Capital & returns

Q3 FY2025
SegmentQ3 FY2025
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) Ratio10.6%
Tangible Common Equity to Tangible Assets6.8%
Total Deposits$165.212 billion

Other KPIs

Q3 FY2025
SegmentQ3 FY2025
Net Interest Margin (FTE basis)3.13%
Return on Average Assets (ROAA)1.19%
Return on Average Common Shareholders' Equity (ROACE)12.4%
Return on Average Tangible Common Shareholders' Equity (ROTCE)17.8%
Nonaccrual Loan Ratio0.59%
Net Charge-Off Ratio0.22%
Efficiency Ratio57.4%

Management tone

Q2 raise-of-everything → Q3 raise-again-and-extend-to-2026.

From raising FY25 to pre-guiding 2026 NIM with a rate-path-independent floor. Last quarter Huntington raised its FY NII guide to 8–9% and characterized Q3 NII as "relatively stable sequentially." This quarter Zach extended the runway out a full year with explicit modeling: "we anticipate standalone NIM to rise again in 2026 by at least 10 basis points, driven primarily by continued benefits from fixed asset repricing. Given our neutral asset sensitivity, our modeling would indicate we could achieve this level of NIM expansion in Fed Funds scenarios ranging from zero to as many as seven cuts." The 2026 anchoring removes Fed dependency from the bull case and inverts the typical regional-bank posture, where forward NIM commentary is the most-hedged part of the call.

From "optionality from strength" framing of Veritex to operationalized growth springboard. In Q2, management framed Veritex as optionality the bank had earned: "this position of strength opens up strategic options like the Veritex acquisition." This quarter the language is execution-oriented: "Our greater opportunity is in the revenue growth synergies that we will generate as we accelerate the rollout of the full Huntington franchise into these markets," alongside concrete plans for "a couple dozen" branch builds next year and the same the year after. The shift from "we have the option" to "here is the build cadence" is the inflection.

From raising for-the-year to unprompted 2026 forward guidance. Last quarter the multi-metric raise was bounded to FY25. This quarter Zach offered 2026 loan growth without being asked: "our working assumption is somewhere in the mid to high single digits year of your loan growth in 2026 as well." Regional banks rarely give forward-year loan growth eight quarters out before the November update; doing so signals visibility management believes is non-trivial.

From holding the 16–17% ROTCE medium-term range to flagging it for upward revision. Q3 ROTCE printed at 17.8%, above the published high end. Management's response was striking: "we were able to drive ROTCE up over a percentage point this year and already get above the high end of that medium term range, which…clearly you can imagine would have us take a step back and see whether we would want to adjust that range going forward." Banks rarely telegraph target-range revisions in advance; this is a confidence tell.

From operating leverage as tactical to operating leverage as structural output. Q2 framed expense discipline as calibrated to revenue. This quarter operating leverage became its own headline: "our outlook for positive operating leverage has continued to expand, from approximately 100 basis points at the beginning of the year to now over 250 basis points expected as of today." The 2.5x expansion within a single fiscal year, coupled with the "1% baseline cost takeout every year" cadence, reframes operating leverage from a result to a manufacturing process.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Organic market expansion as primary value driver (Carolinas, Texas, specialty verticals)Operating leverage structural; baseline cost discipline + growth investment yields 250bps improvementNIM expansion runway via fixed asset repricing (10bps 2026, 7bps 2027) regardless of Fed pathVeritex as scale inflection, not one-time M&A; 'springboard' for franchisee rollout and synergyDeposit franchise superiority; primary bank relationships + sophisticated pricing yield outperformanceCredit quality resilience; moderate-to-low risk appetite embedded 15 years, isolated industry issues not contagion

Risks management surfaced:

Economic and policy uncertainty persisting (acknowledged but discounted)Industry-wide credit events (referenced Comerica, fraud/collateral pledging); management dismisses as 'episodic' and 'isolated'Tariffs impacting equipment finance component availability, delaying 4Q orders into 2026Competitive deposit environment (acknowledged as 'battle of 100 different levers')Forward-looking guidance assumption risk: mid-to-high single-digit loan growth 2026 dependent on economy holding up

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q3 NII against the "relatively stable sequentially" guide — NII rose ~2.7% QoQ, well above the flat-ish guide. The FY NII range was raised another 200bps to 10–11% as a direct consequence.
Resolved positively
Deposit growth in Q4 specifically — Total deposits already reached $165.2B in Q3, and management raised the standalone FY deposit guide to ~5.5% (high end of prior range). Q4 commentary points to continued sequential growth with Veritex layering on.
Resolved positively
Net charge-offs holding inside 20–30bps — Q3 NCO ratio came in at 22bps, near the low end of the range. FY guide reaffirmed at "at or below midpoint.".
Resolved positively
Veritex deal close progress and any change in framing — Deal closes Monday (per the call). Framing shifted from "optionality from strength" to active growth springboard, with quantified Q4 contribution ($20M core PPNR / ~$0.01 EPS) and one-time costs ($125–150M). Status: Resolved positively (close certainty), with $125–150M one-time cost a Q4 optics headwind
NIM trajectory — Q3 NIM printed at 3.13%, up 2bps QoQ and ahead of the mid-quarter conference expectation per Zach. Q4 standalone guide is +1–2bps further, plus 2–3bps Veritex accretion on reported.
Resolved positively
Fee income growth re-acceleration toward double digits — Standalone FY fee guide raised to ~7% from 4–6%. Not yet at double digits, but the trajectory and the explicit "momentum is building across the fee businesses" comment validate the bull case.
Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Reported Q4 NIM landing within the 316–318bps zone (Q3 3.13% + 1–2bps standalone + 2–3bps Veritex). A miss below 316bps reported would call the rate-path-independent 2026 NIM thesis into question before it gets a fair test.

Whether the Q4 print discloses a revised ROTCE medium-term target. Management explicitly flagged the 16–17% range as potentially insufficient; an updated range (e.g. 17–19%) would mark the inflection from "exceeding" to "resetting."

Veritex one-time expense actual landing inside the $125–150M envelope. Overshoot would push 2026 expense growth optics and dilute the >250bps operating leverage story heading into the new fiscal year.

2026 NII growth disclosure at the January call. Mid-to-high single digit loan growth + ≥10bps NIM expansion implies high-single-digit-to-low-double-digit NII growth on a standalone basis. Watch whether management formalizes a range or stays qualitative.

C&I loan growth sustaining above 15% YoY. Q3 printed +17.4% — this is the line carrying the loan growth story. Deceleration toward high-single-digits would force a rethink of the 2026 mid-to-high single digit working assumption.

Any credit deterioration in equipment finance following management's tariff-related comment about delayed Q4 orders. Not material yet, but the only specific forward credit-watch item flagged on the call.

Sources

  1. Huntington Bancshares Q3 2025 8-K / press release (SEC EDGAR): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49196/000004919625000075/hban20250930_8kex992.htm
  2. Q3 2025 earnings call prepared remarks and Q&A (Steve Steinour, Zach Wasserman).

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