HOOD · Q4 2025 Earnings
BullishRobinhood Markets
Reported January 30, 2026
30-second summary
Robinhood closed FY2025 with Q4 revenue of $1.3B (+27% YoY), record FY revenue of $4.5B (+52%), adjusted EBITDA of $2.5B (76% growth, 56% margin), EPS of $2.05, total platform assets of $324B (+70% YoY), and FY net deposits of $68B (+35%). Q4 alone delivered $16B of net deposits — the eighth straight quarter above $10B. On top of that record print, management used the call to elevate prediction markets to a "super cycle" with trillion-dollar volume potential, then explicitly positioned private markets via Robinhood Ventures as potentially even bigger — the most expansive forward narrative management has issued. FY26 guidance lands at $2.6–$2.725B of adjusted OpEx+SBC (18% YoY growth at midpoint) alongside a reaffirmed 20%+ net deposit growth target, with Q1 already off to a $7B+ start.
Guidance
Company pivots to FY2026 guidance with 20%+ net deposit growth target and 18% YoY expense growth, signaling confidence in platform momentum while maintaining disciplined cost control.
Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.
New guidance
| Metric | Period | Guide | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted OPEX and SBC | FY 2026 | $2.6 to $2.725 billion | — |
| Adjusted OPEX and SBC Expense Growth | FY 2026 | 18% year-over-year | — |
| Net Deposit Growth | FY 2026 | 20% plus | — |
Other KPIs
Q4 FY2025| Segment | Q4 FY2025 |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 Stocks - Non-Directed Orders | 100.00% |
| Non-S&P 500 Stocks - Non-Directed Orders | 100.00% |
| Options - Non-Directed Orders | 100.00% |
| Top Venue (Stocks, S&P 500): Virtu Americas | 46.32% of non-directed orders |
| Top Venue (Stocks, Non-S&P 500): Virtu Americas | 34.57% of non-directed orders |
| Top Venue (Options): CITADEL SECURITIES LLC | 39.84% of non-directed orders |
Management tone
Q1 product roadmap framing → Q2 wallet-share inflection → Q3 platform diversification proof → Q4 multi-trillion TAM expansion
Prediction markets escalated from "fastest-growing business" to "super cycle worth trillions" in one quarter. Q3 anchored to a $300M annualized run rate based on October volumes. This quarter management vaulted past that quantitative frame and into pure TAM language: "300 million plus run rate in its first year. I think we're just at the beginning of a prediction market super cycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time." Paired with 12B contracts traded in 2025 and 4B+ already in early 2026, plus the Rothera JV close and thousands of non-sports contracts, management is now positioning prediction markets as a category-defining business, not a product line.
Private markets leap-frogged prediction markets in ambition. A quarter ago Robinhood Ventures was framed as "just the start" of a multi-trillion access gap. This quarter: "And now we think private markets could become even bigger than prediction markets. And I'm really excited about what we're building here." Stacking that against the trillion-dollar prediction markets framing implies management now sees private markets as the single largest forward opportunity in the business.
Tokenization moved from "strategic pillar" to "global financial ecosystem peer to trading." Q2 introduced stock tokens as the moat. Q3 described phase one (live, 400+ tokens) through phase three (DeFi, self-custody, collateralized lending). This quarter: "The big theme here is tokenization...we now have 2,000 stock tokens available to customers in Europe...it's early in the tokenization industry, but we've built a leadership position already." The token count grew 5x in two quarters, and management is targeting 24/7 trading and self-custody as differentiators by end of 2026.
Multi-generational platform replaced active-trader-first as the headline customer thesis. Through Q2 and Q3 the wallet-share narrative was the dominant frame. This quarter Vlad explicitly broadened it: "This year, it'll really become a multigenerational platform...we believe we can be the major beneficiary of the $100 trillion-plus wealth transfer." Custodial accounts, family infrastructure, and structured wealth transfer positioning are now the explicit retention vehicle.
Management explicitly acknowledged they have outrun their own roadmap. "I think in hindsight, we realize we underestimated what we could do in one year, not to mention 10 years." That sentence is the most confident statement Vlad has made in any quarter Tapebrief has covered, and it directly sets up the FY26 spend ramp as the funding mechanism for an accelerated, not steady, product velocity.
Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:
Risks management surfaced:
Q&A highlights
Alex Markgraf · KeyBank
What is the product team working on for prediction markets post-JV close, beyond expanding the contract list?
Robinhood is refining the down-funnel trading experience with tools like combos and player contracts, leveraging contextual discovery across app surfaces (e.g., showing relevant prediction markets on stock detail pages), revamping search/home for multi-asset integration, and streamlining the first-time prediction markets customer experience. The Rothera JV provides vertical control over contracts and pricing economics.
Ben Budish · Barclays
What is the current sports vs. non-sports contract mix in prediction markets, and how is Robinhood thinking about customer acquisition incentives given competitive pressure?
Management confirmed significant non-sports diversification with thousands of contracts available and success with non-sports events (e.g., government shutdown contracts driving volume in January). On customer acquisition, the primary lever is the 27M customer base via contextual surfacing, supplemented by referrals and learn-and-earn programs. Management is being ROI-disciplined on promotions and marketing spend.
James Yarrow · Goldman Sachs
Where is Robinhood prioritizing international expansion and how does the company differentiate its strategy between Europe and Asia?
UK and EU are mature markets receiving deeper product rounds (stock and shares ISAs, multi-currency wallets). EU is a tokenization testbed where Robinhood operates on crypto rails without traditional stocks. Southeast Asia and new markets will launch with faster feature rollout given regulatory groundwork and international-first architecture. International customer base reached 750k; management expects millions in the near term.
Dan Doloff · Mizuho
Given recent AI-driven headwinds for competitors, why isn't Robinhood seeing AI as a tailwind, and what is the company's AI roadmap?
Management asserts AI will transform financial services. Cortex Assistant is rolling out in coming weeks. On trading, Cortex Legend and in-app Cortex are in development. On advisory, self-serve AI tools and advisor workflow redefinition are both underway. Cortex has made progress on providing advice; conversations with regulators underway to ensure safe rollout with potential to transform wealth management.
Patrick Moley · Piper Sandler
Can you elaborate on Rothera economics and explain why Robinhood wouldn't migrate all prediction market volume to its own JV venue?
Management's north star is customer experience and best pricing, not maximum internal monetization. Rothera economics: customers currently pay 2 cents total (1 cent to Robinhood as FCM, 1 cent to exchange); Robinhood will control full economics through the JV. Robinhood owns 45%, Susquehanna 45%, MyEx 10%. Management remains open to other FCMs and counterparties connecting, prioritizing competitive market quality over volume capture.
Answers to last quarter's watch list
What to watch into next quarter
Q1 FY2026 net deposits final print vs the $7B+ Q1-to-date anchor — management has now publicly anchored to a strong Q1; a full-quarter print below $13B would suggest the year-opening pace was front-loaded promotional activity rather than structural momentum. The 20%+ FY26 deposit growth target depends on Q1 holding above $14B.
Robinhood Ventures 1 actual launch date, fund size, and non-accredited access mechanism — pending now for two consecutive quarters. Continued silence into Q1 would suggest SEC friction; an actual launch with disclosed AUM and fee structure would validate the "bigger than prediction markets" framing.
Rothera JV launch timing — mid-2026 commitment — any slippage past Q3 2026 would compress the FY26 prediction markets monetization runway. Watch for any update on FCM onboarding and regulatory approvals.
Cortex Assistant customer rollout and measurable engagement — committed to ship "in coming weeks." By Q1 we should have an early read on attach rate or interaction volume.
Gold Card scale-up — management committed to "more than doubling" Gold Card customers from 600K to well over 1M by year-end. Q1 should show the early pace.
Banking deposit trajectory — strong start at $400M+ across 25K+ funded customers; Q1 should test whether 3.5% APY plus direct-deposit attach can compound into a $1B+ deposit footprint.
FY26 OpEx+SBC pacing vs the $2.6B–$2.725B envelope — at 18% midpoint growth, Q1 OpEx materially above $650M would signal the high end of the range is more likely; below $620M would suggest discipline at the low end.
Crypto take rate trajectory — January running ~5bps below Q4; watch whether this stabilizes or compresses further if active-trader mix persists.
Prediction markets non-sports revenue mix disclosure — management cited "thousands" of non-sports contracts qualitatively. A concrete sports-vs-non-sports revenue split in Q1 would convert the diversification narrative from claim to evidence.
Sources
- Robinhood Financial LLC Q4 2025 Rule 606(a) NMS order routing public report (SEC filing): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000007/a165998_606xnmsx2025xq4x.htm
- Robinhood Markets Q4 FY2025 earnings call — management prepared remarks and analyst Q&A (Vlad Tenev, Shiv Verma, Chris Cagle)
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