tapebrief
HST · Q3 2025

HST · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Host Hotels & Resorts

Reported February 18, 2026

30-second summary

Host closed 2025 with comparable RevPAR up 3.8% (versus the ~3.0% raised guide from Q3), beat its FY revenue guide by $54M at $6.114B, and delivered Adjusted FFO/share of $2.07 (vs $2.03 prior guide). The Q4 print (Adjusted EBITDA RE of $428M, Adjusted FFO/share of $0.51) was paired with the $1.1B sale of Four Seasons Orlando and Jackson Hole at a 14.9x trailing EBITDA multiple — proceeds management says are "more likely than not" to fund a ~$0.72/share special dividend. 2026 guidance is the more interesting tape: Adjusted EBITDA RE midpoint of $1,770M (+$13M vs FY2025 actual of $1,757M), Adjusted FFO/share of $2.07, but comparable hotel EBITDA margin guided to a tight -20bps to +20bps range against ~5% wage inflation, capping the operating-leverage story even as RevPAR is guided +2.0% to +3.5%. Maui contributed $111M of EBITDA in 2025 (vs $90M initial / $110M raised), and is now guided to $120M in 2026 — still well short of the $160M full-recovery benchmark, leaving real upside if group pace materializes.

Guidance

FY2025 results beat RevPAR guidance significantly (4.6% vs ~3.0-3.4%), though EBITDA margin came in slightly below at 28.0% vs 28.8%. FY2026 guidance moderately raised with Adjusted EBITDA RE midpoint of $1,770M (+$40M vs prior FY2025 guidance), offset by tighter EBITDA margin guidance (-20 to +20 bps) due to expected 5% wage increases.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
RevenueFY2025$6,060 million$6,114 million+$54 million above guideBeat
Comparable Hotel RevPAR GrowthFY2025approximately 3.0%4.6%+160 bps above guideBeat
Comparable Hotel Total RevPAR GrowthFY2025approximately 3.4%4.6%+120 bps above guideBeat
Comparable Hotel EBITDA MarginFY202528.8%28.0%-80 bps below guideBeat
Adjusted EBITDA REFY2025$1,730 million$1,770 million+$40 million above guide (midpoint basis)Beat

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
Comparable Hotel Total RevPAR GrowthFY20262.5% to 4.0%—
Comparable Hotel RevPAR GrowthFY20262.0% to 3.5%—
Comparable Hotel EBITDA Margin ChangeFY2026-20 bps to +20 bps—
Adjusted EBITDA REFY2026$1,770 million—
Capital Expenditure GuidanceFY2026$525 million to $625 million—
Wage Rate Increase ExpectedFY2026Approximately 5%—

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025YoY
Domestic Hotels$1.439B+5.4%
International Hotels$0.029B+6.9%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025YoY
Maui$0.106B+12.8%
New York$0.167B+13.4%
Miami$0.072B+11.7%
Orlando$0.132B+10.8%
San Diego$0.107B-6.8%
San Francisco/San Jose$0.095B+29.7%
Comparable Hotel RevPAR$227.14—
Comparable Hotel RevPAR YoY Growth4.6%—
Comparable Hotel Occupancy66.9%—
Comparable Hotel ADR$339.44—
Hotel EBITDA (Comparable)$410.9M—
Comparable Hotel EBITDA Margin28.0%—
Total Hotels in Portfolio79—
Total Rooms in Portfolio42,478—

Management tone

Q2 (defensive binary framing, fortress balance sheet) → Q3 (assertive industry leadership, across-the-board guide raise) → Q4 (decisive capital allocation, explicit shareholder returns, beat-and-raise into a clearly framed wage-inflation backdrop)

The arc from Q2 to Q4 is the most pronounced tone shift Host has shown in three quarters. In Q2 management was hedging FY guidance as a binary bet on macro clarity and deploying balance-sheet language to "weather any environment." By Q3 the tone shifted to confident operational execution — the RevPAR raise, margin guide improvement, and MTCP2 announcement. This quarter management goes a step further: the language is "we are optimistic about the travel environment, particularly at the upper end of the chain scale" and the company is monetizing two trophy assets at 4x its own trading multiple to fund a special dividend. That is a management team that believes the public-market multiple does not reflect underlying asset value, and is willing to act on the conviction.

The transformational capital program has shifted from "expected to deliver 3-5pt yield index gain" (Q2/Q3 framing) to demonstrably outperforming. Management this quarter said "the average RepPAR index share gain is 8.7 points, which is well in excess of our targeted gain of three to five points" across 21 stabilized properties — up from the 8.5pt figure across 20 properties cited in Q3. The mid-teens cash-on-cash return thesis is being validated in real time, which is exactly why management told Baird (per Q&A) it still doesn't beat buybacks at the current multiple but does justify the second Marriott program.

Maui's trajectory has shifted from "stabilizing" (Q2) to "firmly underway" (Q3) to a quantified $120M 2026 contribution with explicit upside callouts (Q4). Management said "Maui is expected to contribute approximately $120 million of EBITDA in 2026" — up from $111M actual 2025, up from $90M initial 2025 guide, but still ~$40M short of the $160M full-recovery benchmark. The path to that $160M is now visible: Hyatt Regency Maui growing from ~$28M to ~$34M, with further upside as group pace builds.

Group commentary has reversed entirely. Q2's "near-term group is softer" framing has become "3.1 million definite group room nights on the books, representing a 16% increase since the third quarter of 2025." Total group revenue pace +5% over same time last year. Combined with Q3's commentary that 2026 group is room-night-led rather than rate-led, this is a healthier mix than 2025's experience-led story and signals improving H2 2026 visibility.

The capital allocation message has fully crystallized: Q2 emphasized buybacks ($205M H1), Q3 explicitly redirected capital from buybacks to MTCP2 internal CapEx, and this quarter management announced the $1.1B Four Seasons disposition and signaled a ~$0.72/share special dividend as "more likely than not." Management told BMO that the reverse like-kind exchange option requires accretive deals within 45 days — and that the acquisition market is "better than 2025 but still not robust." Translation: management does not see attractive acquisitions, so capital comes back to shareholders.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Luxury/high-end demand strength at resorts and premium propertiesCapital allocation discipline with asset sales at premium multiples and shareholder returnsTransient revenue growth driven by rate increases rather than occupancyOperational excellence from transformational capital programs exceeding targetsMaui recovery accelerating beyond initial expectationsBalance sheet strength enabling flexibility and special dividends

Risks management surfaced:

Forward-looking statements subject to numerous risks and uncertainties per federal securities lawsGroup room night declines in certain markets driven by renovations and citywide softnessBusiness interruption from ongoing transformational capital programsWage inflation expected at approximately 5% in 2026Exposure to special events (World Cup, inauguration) creating uneven quarterly comparisons

Q&A highlights

Michael Bellisario · Baird

How deep is the buyer pool for high-value hotel assets, and would Host consider selling more of its top assets like Four Seasons given the strong execution?

Management confirmed a deep buyer pool including sovereigns, high-net-worth individuals, and private equity firms. Four Seasons sale demonstrates value creation (sold at 14.9x multiple, 5.9% cap rate) and there are opportunistic opportunities to maximize shareholder value from the portfolio. Everything is for sale at the right price.

Four Seasons sold for $175 million more than purchase priceSold at 14.9x multiple / 5.9% cap rate (4x higher than Host share trading multiple)11% unlevered IRR including $58 million CapEx and transaction costsFour Seasons Orlando CAGR of 18.4% from purchase through 2025

David Katz · Jefferies

What is the rationale behind the transformational capital program with Marriott—why these hotels, why now, and what returns can shareholders expect?

Management explained the program targets assets needing repositioning to increase yield index and achieve mid-teens cash-on-cash returns. First program achieved 8.7 points yield index pickup vs. 3-5 points underwritten. Brands provide operating guarantees covering disruption. Partnership with brands elevates EBITDA for both Host and the brands.

Second transformational capital program with Marriott after first 16 assetsFirst program stabilized hotels achieved 8.7 points yield index increase vs. 3-5 points underwritten2025 MTCP2 guarantee: $2 million ($1M Q3, $1M Q4)2026 guarantees: $7 million HTCP (Hyatt Manchester, San Diego) + $12 million MTCP2 = $19 million total

Dan Pulitzer · JP Morgan

Given Maui EBITDA beat expectations (90M guidance to 111M actual in 2025), what conservatism is embedded in the 120M 2026 forecast and what are the key drivers to reach 160M?

Management confirmed 120M 2026 guidance based on current booking pace. Wailea side (Fairmont Kiyomi, Andaz) nearly fully recovered with record 49M EBITDA in 2025. Hyatt Regency Kanapali still has runway, expected to grow from 28M to 34M in 2026 as group pace picks up. Potential for upside as year progresses.

2025 actual Maui EBITDA: $111 million (vs. $90M guidance)2026 guidance: $120 millionFairmont Kiyomi 2025 EBITDA: $49 million (new high watermark)Hyatt Regency Kanapali 2026 expected EBITDA: ~$34 million (vs. ~$28M in 2025)

Ari Klein · BMO Capital Markets

Given $500 million in capital gains from Four Seasons sale, what is management's thinking on acquisition opportunities versus returning capital to shareholders?

Management indicated acquisition market is better than 2025 but still not robust. Confirmed ability to execute reverse like-kind exchange if accretive assets identified within 45 days, but will not acquire just to defer taxes. Leaning toward special dividend (~72 cents/share) as more likely outcome, though retaining flexibility.

$500 million in taxable capital gains availableSpecial dividend option: ~72 cents per share (~$500M)Reverse like-kind exchange window: 45 days, accretive deals onlyAcquisition market improving but not robust

Dwayne Fenningsworth · Evercore ISI

What market tailwinds and headwinds should investors expect in 2026, particularly regarding Maui and San Francisco pacing, and which markets represent material drivers?

World Cup expected to contribute 60 bps to full-year RevPAR (net 40 bps accounting for 20 bps inauguration benefit in 2025). Host has exposure in 10 markets. Strong pacing in Nashville (+13%), Atlanta (+10%), Miami (+15%), San Francisco (+20%), D.C. (+10%), Austin (+26%). Hyatt Regency Maui group pacing strong at north of 10%/close to 11.5% RevPAR. Headwinds in San Diego, Chicago, Boston, Seattle due to citywide impacts.

World Cup benefit: 60 bps full-year RevPAR impact; net 40 bps after accounting for inaugurationWorld Cup matches in 10 Host markets (Q2 > Q3 concentrations)Maui group pacing (Hyatt Regency): 10%+ RevPAR, expected close to 11.5%Top markets pacing: San Francisco +20%, Austin +26%, Miami +15%, Nashville +13%, Atlanta +10%, D.C. +10%

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 RevPAR print vs. the implied FY ~3.0% math. Comparable RevPAR grew 4.6% in Q4, well above the "low single-digit" telegraph; FY comparable RevPAR landed at 3.8%, beating the ~3.0% raised guide by ~80bps. The strength was not front-loaded into October — Q4 sustained meaningful outperformance across the gateway markets despite San Diego weakness.
Resolved positively
2026 initial EBITDAre framing. Adjusted EBITDA RE midpoint of $1,770M for 2026, +$13M vs the $1,757M FY25 actual (+0.7%). Per management, the run-rate is closer to $1.9B once you adjust for $87M of disposed EBITDA and ~$24M of HTCP guarantees that won't repeat. Maui contribution stepped from $111M actual 2025 to $120M guided 2026 — still $40M below the $160M full-recovery benchmark, leaving optionality. World Cup adds net 40bps to RevPAR. Group room nights at 3.1M (+16% since Q3) confirm the room-night-led recovery thesis.
Resolved positively
Marriott MTCP2 CapEx cadence and property-level disclosure. 2025 MTCP2 operating guarantee tracked to $2M ($1M Q3, $1M Q4) as expected, but total 2025 transformational guarantees were $26M including $24M from HTCP. 2026 guarantees step down to $19M total ($7M Hyatt + $12M MTCP2) — a $7M net decline as the original Hyatt program rolls off. The original MTCP2 properties are progressing; six Hyatt properties are in final renovation stages. Property-level disruption windows still not granularly disclosed.
Continue monitoring
Q4 government room nights and shutdown exposure. Not explicitly quantified in the materials available. San Diego revenue did print -6.8% in Q4, consistent with prior shutdown/government exposure flags. Management did not break out government room nights in the same detail as Q3.
Continue monitoring
Condo development closings at Four Seasons Orlando. Host retained the condo development when it sold the hotel for $1.1B (jointly with Jackson Hole) at a 14.9x trailing multiple. Management expects an additional $20–25M of net EBITDA from the remaining unit sales, with deposits/purchase agreements on 28 of 40 units including 8 of 9 villas. Status: Continue monitoring (now standalone development economics).

What to watch into next quarter

Special dividend confirmation and size. Management said ~$0.72/share is "more likely than not" but retained optionality for a reverse like-kind exchange through a 45-day window. Watch the Q1 announcement: a confirmed dividend at $0.72 validates the capital-discipline message; an unexpected acquisition pivot raises questions about deal pricing given management's own characterization of the M&A market as "not robust."

Q1 2026 comparable hotel EBITDA margin vs the -20 to +20bps full-year band. With ~5% wage inflation embedded, watch whether Q1 prints inside the band. A Q1 margin decline of more than 30bps would suggest the high-end +20bps case is already off the table and the FY guide is biased to the low end.

Maui group room nights actualizing vs +10-11.5% pacing. Hyatt Regency Maui group pacing is the lever between the $120M 2026 guide and the path to $160M. Watch Q1 commentary for whether actualization is tracking the pacing — and whether the Hyatt Regency Maui $34M target is firming.

MTCP2 property-level disruption disclosure. With $12M of MTCP2 guarantees in 2026 — and total transformational guarantees stepping down from $26M to $19M — the property-level disruption schedule matters for modeling quarterly cadence and the $7M YoY headwind. The named MTCP2 starts include the New Orleans Marriott (in progress since Q3 2025) and the Ritz-Carlton Naples Tiburón (Q2 2026 start). Watch for confirmation of the remaining program properties and their quarterly disruption windows.

San Diego trajectory. Q4 revenue down 6.8% YoY makes San Diego the only major Host market in negative territory. The Hyatt Manchester transformational program will help eventually but disrupts near-term. Watch whether Q1 2026 prints another negative comp or shows stabilization — the answer informs whether the headwind markets list (San Diego, Chicago, Boston, Seattle) is structural or cyclical.

Sources

  1. Host Hotels & Resorts Q4-2025 Supplemental Financial Information — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1070750/000107075026000038/hst-supplementalfinanciali.htm
  2. Host Hotels & Resorts Q4-2025 earnings call prepared remarks and Q&A
  3. Host Hotels & Resorts Q3-2025 brief (Tapebrief, prior-quarter baseline)
  4. Host Hotels & Resorts Q2-2025 brief (Tapebrief, two-quarter-back baseline)

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