INTC · Q2 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Intel

Reported July 23, 2026

30-second summary

Intel delivered $16.13B revenue (+25% YoY), crushing the $13.8–14.8B guide by $1.3–2.3B, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 versus a $0.20 guide and non-GAAP gross margin of 41.8% versus a 39.0% guide. DCAI grew +59% YoY and Foundry +31%, converting the "AI inflection" thesis from Q1 into an unambiguous fact pattern. The Q3 guide of $15.8–16.8B (midpoint $16.3B) sustains the trajectory — but a headline $11.0B net loss from non-cash charges, and non-GAAP EPS guided down QoQ to $0.38, are the caveats sitting under an otherwise commanding print.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$0.42

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$16.13B

+25.0% YoY

+12.1% vs est.

Gross margin

Q2 FY2026

40.4%

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

11.1%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$16.13B	$12.90B	+25.0%	$13.58B	+18.8%
EPS	$0.42	$-0.10	+520.0%	$0.29	+44.8%
Gross margin	40.4%	27.5%	+1290bps	39.4%	+100bps
Operating margin	11.1%	-24.7%	+3580bps	-23.1%	+3420bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued one quarter forward. The Prior-guide column references the guide issued last quarter for the period just reported; the New-guide column is for next quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q2 FY2026	$13.8B–$14.8B	$16.128B	+$1.328B–$2.328B above guide (9–17% above midpoint)	Beat
Non-GAAP EPS	Q2 FY2026	$0.20	$0.42	+$0.22 above guide (+110%)	Beat
GAAP EPS	Q2 FY2026	$0.08	-$2.16	-$2.24 below guide (due to large non-cash charges)	Missed
Non-GAAP Gross Margin	Q2 FY2026	39.0%	41.8%	+280 bps above guide	Beat
Non-GAAP Tax Rate	Q2 FY2026	11%	11%	in-line	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	Q3 FY2026	$15.8B–$16.8B	+15–23% YoY
GAAP EPS	Q3 FY2026	$0.31	—
Non-GAAP EPS	Q3 FY2026	$0.38	—
GAAP Gross Margin	Q3 FY2026	41.0%	—
Non-GAAP Gross Margin	Q3 FY2026	42.0%	—
GAAP Tax Rate	Q3 FY2026	1%	—
Non-GAAP Tax Rate	Q3 FY2026	11%	—

Segment performance

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Client Computing and Physical AI Group (CCPG)	$8.877B	—	+13.0%
Data Center and AI (DCAI)	$6.262B	$3.9B	+60.6%
Intel Foundry	$5.765B	$4.4B	+31.0%
All Other	$0.701B	$1.1B	-36.3%
Data Center and AI Revenue Growth	59% YoY	—	—
Intel Foundry Revenue Growth	31% YoY	—	—
Total Intel Products Revenue	$15.1B	—	—
Total Intel Products Growth	28% YoY	—	—

Capacity & utilization

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Q3 2026 Non-GAAP EPS Guidance	$0.38	—	—

Profitability

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Non-GAAP Gross Margin	41.8%	29.7%	—
Non-GAAP Operating Margin	17.2%	-3.9%	—
Operating Cash Flow (Q2)	$7.0B	$2.1 billion	—

Management tone

No transcript available this quarter; tone analysis is limited to the press-release qualitative statements.

Narrative arc: Q2 2025 "triage and survival" → Q3 2025 "demand outpacing supply" → Q4 2025 "supply trough and yield disappointment" → Q1 2026 "capacity expansion and CPU re-insertion" → Q2 2026 "strongest growth in 15 years and meaningfully increased investment."

From "flat CapEx" to "meaningfully increasing investments." Three quarters ago Tan's CapEx framing was "down"; two quarters ago "flat to down slightly"; one quarter ago "flat to 2025 levels"; this quarter, in the press release: "AI-driven compute continues to strengthen, and to support expected growth this year and next across products and foundry, we are meaningfully increasing our investments in equipment, clean room space, and substrates." This is the fourth consecutive upward CapEx revision, and the language has finally shed its hedging — "meaningfully increasing" is the first unambiguously expansionary posture from Tan since he took over. The demand pull has forced the pivot.

From "how quickly can we scale supply" to "strongest revenue growth in 15 years." In Q1 Tan said the conversation had moved from "survive" to "scale." This quarter's press-release anchor: "Our Q2 results represent our strongest revenue growth in more than fifteen years, enabled by greater speed, accountability, and customer focus." The 15-year framing is not throwaway — it's Tan claiming the turnaround has produced Intel's best quarter in a decade and a half. Whether that framing survives a Q3 print at only $16.3B midpoint (roughly 1% QoQ growth) is the next test.

The GAAP/non-GAAP divergence is the one thing that cut the other way. GAAP EPS of $(2.16) versus the $0.08 guide, driven by an $11.0B net loss from non-cash charges (the reconciliation identifies a $12.5B mark-to-market loss on Escrowed Shares tied to the U.S. Government Warrant and Common Stock Agreement as the dominant driver), is a $2.24 miss the size of which would ordinarily dominate any brief. That management is guiding GAAP EPS of $0.31 for Q3 says they view Q2's charges as one-time — but the absence of transcript commentary means the composition and go-forward volatility of those charges is unresolved, and the market will want that resolved.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q2 non-GAAP gross margin lands at or above the 39.0% guide despite Panther Lake dilution and rising memory/substrate costs — Non-GAAP GM printed 41.8%, a 280bps beat versus the 39.0% guide, and Q3 is guided to 42.0%. The Panther Lake dilution and input-cost headwinds either failed to materialize at the magnitude flagged or were more than offset by mix and volume leverage. The structural margin recovery thesis is intact and accelerating.

Resolved positively

DCAI YoY growth at +20% or better in Q2 — DCAI grew +59% YoY, nearly triple the +20% threshold and up from +22% in Q1. This is now two consecutive quarters of >+20% growth, meaning the "AI inflection" framing has converted from thesis to fact pattern by the criteria set last quarter. The share-loss debate against AMD is off the table for now.

Resolved positively

A named external 14A customer commit by the Q3 print — The company didn't disclose a named external 14A customer in the press release; without a transcript this quarter we don't have Tan's engagement-commentary update. The Q1 guidance of "H2 2026 design commitments" has one more quarter to be tested.

Continue monitoring

Whether FY26 OpEx stays at ~$16.5B or drifts higher — The Q3 outlook reconciliation still shows FY26 non-GAAP OpEx at approximately $16.5B, consistent with prior guidance; the "meaningfully increasing investments in equipment, clean room space, and substrates" language points to CapEx expansion rather than OpEx drift. Status: Resolved in line.

CCG Q2 print holding above $7.5B against a low-double-digit PC TAM decline — CCPG (renamed to include Physical AI) printed $8.88B, +13% YoY, well above the $7.5B threshold. Management's client-flat-from-Q2-onward framing has been broken to the upside, not the downside.

Resolved positively

Advanced packaging revenue contribution made specific — The press release did not quantify advanced packaging as a specific revenue number or name additional customers. The Q1 "billions per year, not hundreds of millions" framing is not yet backed by disclosed figures.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

The composition of the $11.0B GAAP net loss and its non-cash charges — the reconciliation attributes $12.5B to mark-to-market on Escrowed Shares tied to the U.S. Government CHIPS Act Secure Enclave agreement, but the go-forward volatility of that derivative liability, and any additional impairment or restructuring components, will be a focus for the Q3 10-Q and call commentary.

DCAI YoY growth holding above +30% in Q3 — the +59% Q2 print set a new high-water mark off a $3.94B Q2 2025 base; anything below +30% in Q3 would suggest the demand pull is decelerating faster than the revenue guide implies.

Whether the "meaningfully increasing" CapEx language translates into a quantified FY26 CapEx number above 2025 levels — Tan has now revised CapEx guidance upward four consecutive quarters using progressively softer hedging; a specific dollar figure in Q3 is the natural next step, and its magnitude is the cleanest read on management's demand conviction.

A named external 14A customer commit or a fourth deferral — Tan has now pushed this milestone from "H1 2026" to "H2 2026 design commitments"; a Q3 print without named commits would be the fourth consecutive deferral and would materially damage the leading-edge external foundry thesis on the original Tan-era timeline.

Q3 non-GAAP EPS printing at or above the $0.38 guide — the $0.42 → $0.38 QoQ step-down suggests either mix pressure or higher OpEx offsetting the 20bps gross margin expansion; understanding which is the cleanest test of whether Q2's operating leverage was mix-timing or run-rate.

Foundry revenue holding above $5B and moving toward disclosed external customer economics — Foundry printed $5.77B versus $4.42B in Q2 2025 (+31% YoY); the segment's external revenue mix and named-customer economics need to start being disclosed, or the +31% growth remains largely an internal-transfer story.

Sources

Intel Q2 2026 Earnings Press Release, SEC Archives: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086326000155/q226earningsrelease.htm

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