INTU · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Intuit

Reported August 21, 2025

30-second summary

Intuit closed FY25 with Q4 revenue +20% to $3.83B and non-GAAP EPS of $2.75, both above the top of last quarter's guide, and FY25 revenue +16% to $18.83B. The print itself is clean — the signal is in the FY26 guide, where Credit Karma is set at 10–13% (a sharp step-down from FY25's delivered 32% full year / 34% Q4 exit), Consumer at 8–9%, and GBSG at 14–15% (15.5–16.5% ex-Mailchimp). Management frames it as conservatism plus less FY26 pricing; the tape is being asked to trust that the deceleration is a setup choice, not a demand statement.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$2.75

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$3.83B

+20.0% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

8.8%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$3.83B	+20.0%	$7.75B	-50.6%
EPS	$2.75	—	$11.65	-76.4%
Operating margin	8.8%	—	48.0%	-3915bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q4 FY2025	$3.723 billion to $3.760 billion	$3.831 billion	+$0.071 billion above guidance high end	Beat
Non-GAAP EPS	Q4 FY2025	$2.63 to $2.68	$2.75	+$0.07 above guidance high end	Beat
GAAP EPS	Q4 FY2025	$0.84 to $0.89	$1.35	+$0.46 above guidance high end	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Non-GAAP EPS	FY2026	$22.98 to $23.18	—
GAAP EPS	FY2026	$15.49 to $15.69	—
Revenue	FY2026	$20.997 billion to $21.186 billion	—
Revenue	Q1 FY2026	$3.744 billion to $3.776 billion	14 to 15 percent
Non-GAAP EPS	Q1 FY2026	$3.05 to $3.12	—
GAAP EPS	Q1 FY2026	$1.19 to $1.26	—
TurboTax revenue growth	FY2026	—	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Global Business Solutions Group revenue growth	FY2026	approximately 16 percent	14 to 15 percent (15.5 to 16.5% excluding Mailchimp)	-1 to -2 percentage points (on reported basis; -0.5 to 0.5pp excluding Mailchimp)	Lowered
Consumer Group revenue growth	FY2026	approximately 10 percent	8 to 9 percent	-1 to -2 percentage points	Lowered
Credit Karma revenue growth	FY2026	approximately 28 percent	10 to 13 percent	-15 to -18 percentage points	Lowered

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Global Business Solutions Group	$3B	+18.0%
Online Ecosystem	$2.2B	+21.0%
Consumer Group	$0.137B	+21.0%
Credit Karma	$0.649B	+34.0%
QuickBooks Online Accounting Growth (Q4)	23%	—
Credit Karma Growth (Q4)	34%	—
TurboTax Live Revenue Growth (FY)	47%	—

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
TurboTax Live Customer Growth (FY)	24%
TurboTax Online Paying Units Growth (FY)	6%
Total TurboTax Units (FY)	39.2 million

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Non-GAAP Operating Margin (FY)	40.2%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Share Repurchase (FY)	$2.8 billion

Management tone

Q1 (capacity expansion / mid-market emergence) → Q2 (AI agents framed) → Q3 (clean raise across every segment, AI as operating model) → Q4 (AI agents live with millions engaged, but forward growth bar reset).

The narrative shift in this quarter is asymmetric: product confidence ratcheted up while the forward revenue bar came down. Last quarter management broke TurboTax Live's 15–20% long-term band and lifted Credit Karma's FY25 guide from 5–8% to ~28%. This quarter, with FY25 closing at 47% Live growth and 32% Credit Karma growth (34% in Q4), the FY26 setup is 10–13% on Credit Karma and 8% on TurboTax. The press release language ("we are confident in delivering another strong year of double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion") is more measured than the Q3 cadence of segment-by-segment raises.

The AI agent rollout is the one place tone got more assertive, not less. A quarter ago agents were imminent; this quarter management cites "customer engagement in the millions and repeat usage rates significantly above our expectations" within a month of launch, and says new mid-market build customers were "up nearly 2x" Q4 vs Q3. The Q&A line that AI search traffic "converts at order of magnitude higher rates than traditional search" is the first time management has put numerical weight on the AI-channel monetization narrative.

Mailchimp's framing also shifted. Two quarters ago it was a turnaround in progress with no committed exit growth rate; this quarter the explicit statement is that Mailchimp will "exit fiscal 2026 growing double digits," and the GBSG guide is split-disclosed (14–15% reported vs 15.5–16.5% ex-Mailchimp) — quantifying the drag for the first time. That's both more transparency and more accountability.

What's notable for what isn't said: there is no explicit defense of the Credit Karma reset in the press release language, and the Q&A answer (diversification into prime customers, tax integration, insurance) lists drivers without quantifying any of them. Management is asking the tape to take the conservatism on faith.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

AI agents as done-for-you experiences automating customer workflowsMid-market consolidation and ARPC expansion driving 40% growth in QBO Advanced/IESTurboTax Live breakthrough adoption (47% growth) reshaping assisted tax categoryAll-in-one platform lead-to-cash consolidation reducing customer tech stack fragmentationData services and human intelligence integration as competitive moatDouble-digit revenue growth with margin expansion reaffirmed for FY26

Risks management surfaced:

Mailchimp international headwinds and small business softness requiring turnaroundAI search replacing traditional SEO could impact customer acquisition (though management downplayed at 1% of traffic)Customer concentration risk in mid-market (mentioned one customer with 200+ entities)Integration complexity of consolidating customer data across desperate applicationsMarket conditions and other factors affecting share repurchase cadence

Q&A highlights

Kirk Matern · Evercore ISI

Credit Karma had a fantastic year, but concerns exist about cyclicality. With tough comps, how confident are you in the double-digit growth guide for next year, and what new product lines will reduce cyclicality?

Management emphasized the strategic acquisition of Credit Karma to create a consumer platform with year-round engagement. Key confidence drivers include: tax integration and year-round customer engagement, share gains in credit cards and personal loans driven by data and AI investments, diversification into non-cyclical areas (tax, insurance, prime customers, money management), and several quarters of execution outpacing expectations.

Multiple quarters of execution outpacing internal expectationsCredit card and personal loan share gains driven by data and AI investmentsFocus on prime customers to reduce personal loan cyclicalityTax and insurance as non-cyclical revenue drivers

Kash Rangan · Goldman Sachs

How does Intuit's go-to-market engine for QuickBooks and ad-dependent products adapt to AI search overviews potentially replacing traditional paid search? What are the competitive advantages?

Management stated that AI search represents only 1% of current search traffic. Less than 15% of QuickBooks traffic comes from search overall, as Intuit has intentionally diversified across multiple channels. The go-to-market strategy operates across three dimensions: one-to-many (solopreneurs), one-to-one (mid-market via accountant channel), and platform synergies (avoiding redundant spend on payments, payroll, SMS). AI traffic converts at significantly higher rates than traditional search traffic and is prioritized for investment.

AI search is 1% of overall search traffic currentlyLess than 15% of QuickBooks business traffic driven by searchQuickBooks traffic up double digits year-over-yearAI traffic converts at order of magnitude higher rates than traditional search

Taylor McGinnis · UBS

Global solution business (excluding Mailchimp) showed strong 4Q acceleration in online. What drove this and how durable is it? Why does the FY26 guidance imply deceleration despite core momentum?

Q4 acceleration was driven by scaling in mid-market, introduction of new accounting lineup in early July, and services innovations including 'all invoices payable' feature. Core momentum remains strong, but FY26 guidance implies deceleration due to less pricing actions compared to FY25. Management emphasized that less pricing in FY26 vs. FY25 is the key delta, not underlying business momentum.

Q4 acceleration driven by mid-market scaling and new early July product lineupServices growth driven by money portfolio innovations including 'all invoices payable'FY26 vs. FY25 guidance delta primarily driven by lower pricing assumptionsCore business momentum remains strong

Brad Zelnick · Deutsche Bank

What improvements underpin confidence in 15-20% total company growth guidance for next year after a strong FY25?

Two main drivers: (1) Mid-market opportunity with $90B TAM and low penetration—23% customer growth, online growth 20% reaching $8B+, 40% mid-market growth. (2) All-in-one platform launch with AI agents and human experts enabling lead-to-cash management. Couple million customers engaged in first month with higher-than-expected discovery and repeat engagement. Significant services adoption opportunity from consolidation.

$90 billion mid-market TAM with low penetration23% customer growthOnline growth 20% reaching $8 billion+40% growth in mid-market customers

Alex Zukin · Wolf Research

How will the all-in-one product and AI functionality drive upsell to higher service tiers over the next 12-18 months? Is this push or pull? How do agentic capabilities enable more efficient go-to-market and margin expansion?

Management emphasized that businesses are overwhelmed with multiple apps and fragmented data. The all-in-one platform consolidates data, tech stack, and spend, delivering 300% ROI per Forrester study. Growth from consolidation is driven by both push (customer inertia against change, lineup curation) and pull (customers visibly seeing all apps, experiencing AI agent benefits). Platform economics mean customers pay more to Intuit but spend less overall. AI agents enable better revenue/profitability outcomes through consolidated data, automation, and efficiency.

300% ROI from consolidation of data, tech stack, and spend over three yearsForrester study validates consolidation value propositionCustomers overwhelmed with multiple apps and overspendingPush-and-pull strategy: lineup curation + natural discovery of platform breadth

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 revenue inside or above $3.723B–$3.760B with GBSG Online Ecosystem at or above ~21% — Resolved positively. Q4 revenue came in at $3.831B (+20% YoY), $71M above the high end. Online Ecosystem grew 21% in Q4, hitting the guided bar exactly. Status: Resolved positively

TurboTax Live FY revenue closing at $2.0B with units +24% — Resolved positively. FY25 TurboTax Live revenue grew 47% and customer count grew 24%, matching the unit guide. Status: Resolved positively

Credit Karma sustaining ~28% into Q4 and FY26 framing — Resolved, but the result is split. Q4 Credit Karma grew 34% and FY25 closed at 32% (above the 28% guide). But the FY26 framing is the opposite of sustained — guidance set at 10–13%, the largest forward step-down in the print. Status: Resolved negatively

Authentication friction fixes translating into prior-year retention — Not addressed in this print (off-season quarter for tax). The Q&A focus was on FY26 TurboTax growth at 8%, not on the operational fix itself. Status: Continue monitoring

IES mid-market wins moving from anecdote to disclosed counts — Partial. Management disclosed Q4 new build customers "up nearly 2x vs Q3" and 23% customer growth, plus 40% growth in QBO Advanced/IES online revenue. Still no absolute count or revenue dollar contribution. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Credit Karma's Q1 FY26 growth lands above the implied 10–13% FY band — if it tracks at FY25 exit rates (~34%), management is sandbagging and the FY26 number gets raised. If it tracks at the guide, FY25 was the cyclical peak.

Q1 FY26 revenue inside or above $3.744B–$3.776B — the cleanest near-term test of whether the "less pricing" explanation for the FY26 deceleration is volume-neutral.

FY26 GBSG ex-Mailchimp tracking toward the 15.5–16.5% bar — each quarter's print is a checkpoint against the split-disclosed FY26 guide.

Mailchimp's quarterly growth trajectory toward the "exit FY26 at double digits" commitment — management quantified the FY26 drag explicitly (~1.5pp on GBSG); each quarter's print is now a checkpoint.

AI agent monetization disclosure — management cited "millions" of customers engaged in month one but has not yet tied this to ARPU, attach rate, or revenue contribution. First quantified KPI would be the inflection signal.

Non-GAAP operating margin tracking toward the implied ~41% FY26 — modest expansion vs FY25's 40.2% even as agent infrastructure scales is the bull-case proof point.

Whether IES/QBO Advanced moves from "growing 40%" to a disclosed revenue dollar figure — six quarters of mid-market commentary without a hard number is the longest-running disclosure gap.

Sources

Intuit Q4 FY2025 Earnings Press Release, filed with SEC on 2025-08-21 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/896878/000089687825000031/fy25q4earningspressrelease.htm

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