Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

INVH · Q4 2025 Earnings

Invitation Homes

Reported February 18, 2026

30-second summary

Invitation Homes closed FY25 with Core FFO of $1.91/share (inside the $1.90–$1.94 guide) and Same Store NOI growth of 2.3%, above the 2.25% guide midpoint. The story is forward: FY26 Same Store NOI growth guide midpoint of 1.15% sits 110bps below the FY25 result, Same Store Core Revenue midpoint of 1.9% is 50bps below FY25's 2.4% print, and Core Opex growth midpoint of 3.5% is 90bps above FY25's 2.6%. Wholly owned acquisition deployment is guided to $250M at the midpoint vs. $812M actually deployed in FY25 — a 69% step-down that confirms the Q3 capital-allocation pivot toward buybacks and away from external growth. Core FFO and AFFO guide midpoints ($1.94 and $1.64) sit only $0.03 and $0.01 above FY25 actuals, with the operating reset offset by ResiBuilt contribution, construction lending income, and capital markets activity.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$0.48

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$0.69B

+4.0% YoY

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$0.69B	+4.0%	$0.69B	-0.4%
EPS	$0.48	—	$0.47	+2.1%

Guidance

Full-year FY2026 guidance materially reset lower on operational metrics (NOI, revenue growth, expenses), with FFO/AFFO ranges raised modestly at the top end; acquisition plans slashed by ~$500-700M.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Same Store Blended Rent Growth	FY 2026	mid-2% range	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Core FFO per Share	FY 2026	$1.90 - $1.94	$1.90 - $1.98	High end +$0.04 ($1.94 → $1.98)	Raised
AFFO per Share	FY 2026	$1.60 - $1.64	$1.60 - $1.68	High end +$0.04 ($1.64 → $1.68)	Raised
Same Store NOI Growth	FY 2026	1.75% - 2.75%	0.3% - 2.0%	Low end -145bps (1.75% → 0.3%), high end -75bps (2.75% → 2.0%), midpoint -120bps (2.25% → 1.15%)	Lowered
Same Store Core Revenues Growth	FY 2026	2.0% - 3.0%	1.3% - 2.5%	Low end -70bps (2.0% → 1.3%), high end -50bps (3.0% → 2.5%), midpoint -60bps (2.5% → 1.9%)	Lowered
Same Store Core Operating Expenses Growth	FY 2026	2.0% - 3.5%	3.0% - 4.0%	Low end +100bps (2.0% → 3.0%), high end +50bps (3.5% → 4.0%), midpoint +75bps (2.75% → 3.5%)	Raised
Wholly Owned Acquisitions	FY 2026	$750 - $850 million	$150 - $350 million	$500-700M reduction (midpoint $800M → $250M, -69%)	Lowered
JV Acquisitions	FY 2026	$100 - $200 million	$50 - $150 million	Low end -$50M (-50%), high end -$50M (-25%), midpoint -$50M (-40%)	Lowered
Wholly Owned Dispositions	FY 2026	$400 - $600 million	$450 - $650 million	Low end +$50M ($400M → $450M), high end +$50M ($600M → $650M), midpoint flat at $525M	Raised

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Same Store Portfolio (76,819 homes)	$0.564B	+1.7%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Western United States	$0.223B	+1.6%
Florida	$0.184B	+1.6%
Southeast United States	$0.106B	+1.9%
Texas	$0.028B	+1.1%
Midwest United States	$0.025B	+3.1%
Same Store NOI Growth (YoY)	0.7%	—
Same Store Average Occupancy	95.9%	—
Same Store Blended Rent Growth	1.8%	—
Same Store Renewal Rent Growth	4.2%	—
Same Store New Lease Rent Growth	-4.1%	—
Core FFO per Share	$0.48	—
AFFO per Share	$0.41	—
Total Homes Owned and/or Managed	110,064	—

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q2 Supply pressure acknowledged, guidance held defensively → Q3 Supply persistent, capital pivots to buyback → Q4 FY26 operating guide reset lower, external growth gated by cost of capital, ResiBuilt as strategic in-house pivot

The acquisitions step-down is the most informative single number in the print. FY25 actual wholly owned acquisitions were $812M; FY26 guidance is $250M at midpoint, a 69% reduction. Management's framing on the call anchors on cost of capital and signaling: Scott Eisen — "Given our cost of capital, we have been less aggressive in terms of acquiring from that pipeline...obviously listening to the signal in terms of our cost of capital and the balancing act between acquisitions and share repurchases." The Q3 buyback authorization is now structurally crowding out external growth.

The ResiBuilt acquisition reframes the development narrative. Management positioned in-house development capability as core: "This acquisition accelerates our in-house development capabilities while keeping our upfront approach asset and capital light...giving us greater command over product, location, and timing." ResiBuilt has delivered more than 4,200 homes (per press release) in Georgia, Florida, and the Carolinas since 2018, brings ~1,500 lots of optionality in Atlanta, Charlotte, and Orlando, and is expected to be modestly accretive to 2026 AFFO. Combined with the acquisitions step-down, future external growth flows through ResiBuilt rather than third-party builder channels.

The occupancy trade-off is now explicit. FY25 Same Store average occupancy of 96.8% landed at the high end of 2025 guidance per Tim Loebner, but Q4 dropped to 95.9% — a 90bps YoY decline and 70bps sequential decline that telegraphs how the year exited. John Olson (CFO) framed the FY26 setup directly: "We did about 48 days to re-resident in 25, and my expectation is that in 2026, it'll take us a few days longer on average over the course of the year to get new residents into homes." The FY26 occupancy guide of 96.0–96.6% (midpoint 96.3%) is a 50bps step-down from FY25's 96.8%.

The expense story turned. FY25 Same Store Core Opex growth came in at 2.6%, inside guide. FY26 guide of 3.0–4.0% reflects insurance (general liability, excess casualty, auto) flagged for "outsized increases," with John Olson noting "the general liability, excess casualty, and auto market that has become materially harder." Property tax growth is guided to 4–5% — Olson noted that absent a Texas "good guy" in 2025, FY25 property tax growth would have been closer to the mid-fours, and Florida/Georgia carry a multi-year assessed-value catch-up framing.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Housing affordability and path-to-homeownership as strategic narrativeSupply-demand imbalance as transitory but requiring pricing disciplineResiBuilt acquisition as unlocking development control and BTR growthCost of capital constraint limiting external growth velocityRegulatory clarity on BTR as constructive tailwindResident credit-building as differentiation and policy argument

Risks management surfaced:

Property tax catch-up in Florida and Georgia (multi-year structural headwind)Insurance cost inflation in GL, excess casualty, and auto lines (material outsize increases expected)Elevated inventory supply in Sunbelt markets (Florida, Texas, Arizona) pressuring new lease ratesPotential differential tax treatment of investor-owned vs. owner-occupied homes by municipalitiesRegulatory/legislative risk around institutional investor restrictions (estimated 2 cents per share cost)

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether new lease growth troughs in Q4 or worsens into Q1-2026 — Q4 new lease growth deteriorated to −4.1% from Q3's −0.6%, materially worse than the Q3 trajectory implied. FY25 finished at −0.6%. January 2026 data from Loebner: new lease rates down 4.2%, blended +1.5% (30bps better than December). The Q4 print is the trough so far; whether Q1 confirms or worsens it is now the central question for the FY26 revenue guide. Status: Resolved negatively for Q4; Q1 still in play

Same Store NOI growth landing inside the new 1.75–2.75% range — FY25 landed at 2.3%, above the 2.25% midpoint.

Resolved positively

Pace of $500M buyback execution — INVH repurchased 2.23M shares for ~$61M in Q4, with an additional ~$39M in January bringing year-to-date repurchases to 3.64M shares for ~$100M total. Olson: "We see meaningful value in our shares and expect to continue repurchasing as opportunities permit." Dispositions of $550M at midpoint are explicitly earmarked as the primary funding source. Status: Resolved — active but measured

2026 preliminary framework on the Q4 call — Delivered, and is materially below FY25 guide midpoints across operating metrics: Same Store NOI midpoint of 1.15% (vs. FY25 guide midpoint 2.25%), revenue midpoint of 1.9% (vs. FY25 guide midpoint 2.5%), opex midpoint of 3.5% (vs. FY25 guide midpoint 2.75%).

Resolved negatively

Disposition cap rate of 4–4.5% holding — The press release didn't disclose realized disposition cap rates. FY25 actual dispositions were $534M; FY26 guide raised modestly to $450M–$650M (midpoint $550M).

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q1-2026 Same Store new lease rent growth shows sequential improvement from Q4's −4.1% trough — January at −4.2% suggests no improvement yet. A Q1 reading at or below −4% would put the FY26 revenue guide's low end (1.3%) in jeopardy within one quarter.

Insurance cost trajectory — Management's policy year runs March 1 to March 1. Watch the Q1 call for explicit insurance renewal outcomes; GL/excess casualty/auto is the swing factor in the 3.0–4.0% opex guide.

Actual buyback deployment vs. the $500M authorization — At $100M YTD through January, INVH is at 20% of authorization. With dispositions of ~$550M earmarked as funding source and acquisitions stepping down ~$560M, the natural redirect is repurchases. Watch quarterly cadence.

ResiBuilt contribution to FY26 deliveries and 2027 visibility — Management cited 23 active fee-build contracts, 2,000+ home starts planned for 2026, ~1,500 lots of optionality, and "modestly accretive to 2026 AFFO per share" ($0.02 in the bridge). Watch for explicit delivery cadence and per-home cost data on the Q1 call.

Whether Same Store NOI tracks above the 1.15% FY26 midpoint — H1-2026 will set the trajectory. The Q4 exit rate of 0.7% NOI growth is below the FY26 midpoint, putting pressure on H2 acceleration.

Property tax assessments in Florida and Georgia — Olson flagged a multi-year catch-up dynamic given 22%+ HPA in both states from 2022–2025. Watch for explicit commentary on assessment outcomes in the Q1 call.

Regulatory backdrop — Management included ~$0.02/share of advocacy and other costs in the FY26 bridge. Watch for clarity on institutional-investor legislation and any escalation in the cost estimate.

Sources

Invitation Homes Q4 2025 Supplemental, filed February 18, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1687229/000168722926000013/q42025supplemental.htm
Invitation Homes Q4 2025 earnings call prepared remarks and Q&A (Dallas Tanner, Scott Eisen, Tim Loebner, John Olson)

Get the next brief, free.

We publish analyst-grade earnings briefs the same day or morning after every call — headline numbers, segment KPIs, Q&A highlights, and tone analysis. Free during beta.

This is not investment advice.