tapebrief

IR · Q2 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Ingersoll Rand

Reported July 30, 2026

30-second summary

Ingersoll Rand beat Q2 consensus on both lines (revenue $2.049B vs $1.96B, +4.5%; non-GAAP EPS $0.86 vs $0.83, +3.6%) with organic revenue growth of +4.1% — a decisive reversal from Q1's -0.3% and the strongest organic print in the trailing five quarters. Management raised FY revenue growth guidance to 4.5–6.5% (from 2.5–4.5%) and organic to +1–3% (from flat-to-2%), reaffirmed EPS at $3.45–$3.57 with a "near the high end" flag, and total orders of $2.04B produced a consolidated book-to-bill of 1.0x. The raise is real, but the 200bps top-line lift with EPS reaffirmed at the same range says the flow-through is capped — margins are still not the story.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$0.86

+3.6% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$2.05B

+8.5% YoY

+4.5% vs est.

Gross margin

Q2 FY2026

42.1%

Free cash flow

Q2 FY2026

$0.27B

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

18.6%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026
MetricQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoYQ1 FY2026QoQ
Revenue$2.05B$1.89B+8.5%$1.85B+10.9%
EPS$0.86$0.80+7.5%$0.77+11.7%
Gross margin42.1%43.7%-160bps42.9%-80bps
Operating margin18.6%4.0%+1460bps15.7%+290bps
Free cash flow$0.27B$0.21B+28.1%$0.16B+65.0%

Guidance

Company raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 4.5%-6.5% (from 2.5%-4.5%) and organic growth to +1% to +3% (from flat to +2%), while reaffirming EPS and EBITDA; Q2 beat both revenue and EPS consensus.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
RevenueQ2 FY2026$2.049B+4.5% above consensus estimate ($1.96B); +8.5% YoYBeat
Adjusted EPSQ2 FY2026$0.86+3.6% above consensus estimate ($0.83)Beat

Changes to prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideNew guideΔResult
Revenue Growth
FY 2026
2.5% to 4.5%4.5% to 6.5%+2.0pts at low end, +2.0pts at high endRaised
Organic Revenue Growth
FY 2026
flat to 2%+1% to +3%+1.0pt at low end, +1.0pt at high endRaised
M&A Revenue Contribution
FY 2026
approximately 2%Withdrawn — no replacementWithdrawn
Currency Impact
FY 2026
approximately +0.5%Withdrawn — no replacementWithdrawn

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Adjusted EBITDA ($2,130M to $2,190M), Adjusted EPS ($3.45 to $3.57), Free Cash Flow to Adjusted Net Income Conversion (~95%)

Segment KPIs

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Industrial Technologies and Services$1.622B$1.492B+8.7%
Precision and Science Technologies$0.427B$0.396B+7.8%
IT&S Segment Adjusted EBITDA Margin26.8%
P&ST Segment Adjusted EBITDA Margin31.5%

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Adjusted EBITDA$519.9M$509.4M
Adjusted EBITDA Margin25.4%27.0%
Orders$2,042.9M$1,940M
Organic Revenue Growth4.1%-3.4%
Free Cash Flow Margin13.1%11.1%
Book to Bill Ratio (IT&S)1.0x

Management tone

Q3 FY2025 anchor: explicit guidance cut → Q4 FY2025 anchor: organic inflection delivered → Q1 FY2026 anchor: inflection broken by Middle East delay → Q2 FY2026 anchor: organic re-accelerates and guide raised on organic strength.

Three quarters ago management was cutting guidance and citing tariff exposure exceeding $100M; two quarters ago they codified a "flat margin year"; last quarter they leaned on "anticipate order recovery" hedges to defend a reaffirmed guide; this quarter they raised the top-line guide by 200bps. From the release: "Order momentum continues to build, reinforcing our confidence in delivering on our full-year commitments." The verb tense finally matches the results — "continues to build" is a present-tense claim backed by Q2 orders of $2.04B and organic revenue of +4.1%, not the "anticipate" and "expect" hedges that carried the Q1 defense. The shift signals management now has the operational evidence it lacked one quarter ago.

Tariff and macro caveats — a fixture of the last four quarters — are gone from the release commentary. In Q3 FY2025 tariffs were sized at $100M+ with pricing offsets pushed into 2026; Q4 FY2025 framed H1 2026 margins as "muted"; Q1 FY2026 hedged with "we do not currently expect any net tariffs and inflation impact." This quarter the tariff word does not appear in the qualitative statements at all. Whether that reflects real fade in exposure or management confidence in the mitigation framework, the disclosure choice signals the topic is no longer a load-bearing hedge in the FY narrative.

EPS reaffirmed at the range but with an explicit "high end" flag is a new posture. In Q1 FY2026 management reaffirmed EPS without directional bias inside the range. This quarter's addition — "expected to finish near the high end of the range" — is the closest management has come to a mid-year raise without formally raising. The signal: the EPS range is now conservative given the top-line raise, and management wants that read into the number without committing to the print.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether the $40M Middle East order recovery actually materializes. The Q2 orders print of $2.04B and ITS organic orders holding flat (with the press release explicitly noting ongoing Middle East impact still weighing on ITS) indicate partial conversion but not full recovery. The aggregate order strength and guide raise foreclose the "transitory framing was too optimistic" scenario, though the Middle East drag has not fully cleared.
Resolved positively
Q2 EBITDA margin landing inside prior color range. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA margin was 25.4% vs Q2 FY2025's 27.0% — a 160bps YoY decline, wider than prior color implied. This is the clearest miss on the print, though management reaffirmed FY EBITDA at $2,130–$2,190M implying steeper H2 recovery.
Resolved negatively
ITS margin trajectory in Q2. ITS Adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 26.8% — sequentially stable from Q1's 26.7% but down 180bps YoY, driven by pricing/inflation dynamics in China and commercial investments. Sequential stabilization is intact; the "approximately flat YoY" FY commitment now requires meaningful H2 expansion. Status: Mixed
Whether organic orders turn positive in Q2. Consolidated organic orders +1.6%, with ITS flat (+0.1%) and PST +7.4%. Total organic orders are positive and sufficient to support the raised FY 1–3% organic guide, though ITS remains the drag.
Resolved positively
Recurring revenue progression. No updated recurring revenue quantum disclosed this quarter against the $450M run-rate figure last quantified in Q4 FY2025 or the $1B-by-2027 target.
Continue monitoring
M&A pipeline conversion — particularly any disclosure on the >$1B opportunity noted in the funnel. No large-deal disclosure this quarter, though the Fai Filtri signing and pending close of a U.S. blower manufacturer confirm bolt-on cadence continues. The >$1B opportunity remains undisclosed.
Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q3 organic revenue growth sustains at 3%+ or fades back toward the FY midpoint of ~2%. Q2's +4.1% is the top of the two-quarter range; a Q3 print below +2% would suggest Q2 was a Middle East catch-up spike rather than a durable trend.

Q3 Adjusted EBITDA margin recovery from 25.4%. Reaffirmed FY EBITDA of $2,130–$2,190M against H1 EBITDA of $989M implies H2 EBITDA of $1,141–$1,201M — H2 margin needs to run in the 27%+ range. A Q3 print below 27% would put the FY EBITDA guide at risk.

ITS margin YoY progression. Down 180bps YoY in Q2 with China pricing and commercial investment cited as drivers. A Q3 print showing YoY compression narrowing is required for the FY "approximately flat" ITS commitment to hold.

Recurring revenue quantum against the $450M FY25 baseline and $1B-by-2027 target. Two consecutive quarters without disclosure erodes visibility on the structural growth pillar management emphasized in Q4 FY2025.

Whether the ">$1B M&A opportunity" surfaces at LOI or transaction stage. Continued silence at Q3 would suggest the deal has either closed under confidentiality or slipped further, either of which changes the FY27 growth algorithm.

Whether the "near the high end" EPS flag converts to a formal guide raise on the Q3 call. Two consecutive quarters of top-line strength with EPS held at the range creates the setup for a Q3 EPS raise — or, if margins slip further, a graceful reaffirmation without the "high end" language.

Sources

  1. Ingersoll Rand Q2 FY2026 earnings press release, SEC filing — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1699150/000162828026051068/ir2026q2ex991.htm
  2. Tapebrief Q1 FY2026, Q4 FY2025, Q3 FY2025, and Q2 FY2025 IR briefs (prior-quarter guidance baselines, tone trajectory, and watch-list resolution)

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