IT · Q3 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Gartner

Reported November 4, 2025

30-second summary

Gartner's Q3 FY2025 print shows the core engine still grinding: Insights revenue grew 5.1% as reported / 3.6% FX-neutral (vs. 4.2% FX-neutral in Q2), Conferences turned negative (-1.6%), and total Contract Value grew +3.0% FX-neutral — or +6% excluding the US Federal cohort that management has been winding down (YTD federal dollar retention ~46% on a remaining ~$165M federal CV book). Management raised full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance by $60M to ≥$1.575B (24.3% margin) on cost discipline (Q3 EBITDA $347M, 22.8% margin) and reiterated the 2026 CV acceleration thesis — now sharpened in Q&A to "high single-digit" growth re-acceleration over the course of 2026, with double-digit as the destination beyond. The recovery thesis is intact on management's lips; the ex-Fed CV line (6%) supports it, while the headline (3.0%) still reflects the federal drag.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2025

$2.76

Revenue

Q3 FY2025

$1.52B

+2.7% YoY

Gross margin

Q3 FY2025

68.9%

Free cash flow

Q3 FY2025

$0.27B

Operating margin

Q3 FY2025

5.7%

Key financials

Q3 FY2025

Metric	Q3 FY2025	YoY	Q2 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$1.52B	+2.7%	$1.69B	-9.6%
EPS	$2.76	—	$3.53	-21.8%
Gross margin	68.9%	—	68.5%	+40bps
Operating margin	5.7%	—	19.4%	-1370bps
Free cash flow	$0.27B	—	$0.35B	-22.5%

Guidance

Company raised full-year FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA and margin guidance on the back of Q3 results tracking ahead of expectations; reaffirmed Contract Value acceleration expected in 2026.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Contract Value Growth	FY2026	expected to accelerate in 2026	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted EBITDA	FY2025	not numerically specified in prior guidance	increased for the year	direction raised; magnitude not quantified	Raised

Segment performance

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025	YoY
Insights	$1.271B	+5.1%
Conferences	$0.075B	-1.6%
Consulting	$0.124B	-3.2%
Other	$0.055B	-22.6%

Platform metrics

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025
Contract Value	$5.0 billion
Contract Value YoY Growth	+3.0% (FX Neutral)
Global Technology Sales Contract Value	$3.8 billion
Global Technology Sales CV YoY Growth	+1.7% (FX Neutral)
Global Business Sales Contract Value	$1.2 billion
Global Business Sales CV YoY Growth	+7.1% (FX Neutral)

Profitability

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025
Adjusted EBITDA	$347 million
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	22.8%

Management tone

Q2 anchor: "Five-bucket 2026 recovery math" → Q3 anchor: "High-single-digit re-acceleration over the course of 2026."

Last quarter management walked through four-to-five specific bps buckets that aggregated to 500–600bps of 2026 CV growth recovery (DOGE rollover, tariff normalization, tech vendor reacceleration, operational improvements). This quarter, asked directly by Goldman's George Tong to validate the inflection, CFO Craig Safian compressed the framing to "expected to re-accelerate over course of 2026 into high single-digit growth rates, then continue accelerating back to double-digit growth." Detailed 2026 guidance is deferred to February. The shift from precise bps accounting to qualitative "high single-digit" framing — even as the ex-Fed CV line (6%) already sits inside the target zone — is the most important tonal signal in the call.

On tariffs, management's posture hardened in an unexpected direction. Last quarter the tariff-exposed cohort was framed as a drag to normalize. This quarter, William Blair's Andrew Nicholas got a more bullish reframe from Gene Hall: tariff-impacted industries are "expected to actually perform better in 2026" because tariff certainty is unlocking deferred purchase decisions. Manav Patnik at Barclays got the sizing update: 40% of total CV is tariff-affected, and 20–30% of tech vendor CV specifically. The "certainty unlocks demand" framing is new and shifts the burden of proof from "tariffs normalize" to "tariff-exposed clients actively re-engage."

On the pipeline-vs-bookings disconnect — the diagnostic I flagged last quarter as the most important to track — Safian quantified for Barclays: pipeline is up double-digits while new business declined ~4% ex-Fed in the quarter (down 12% in GTS and 10% in GBS on a reported basis). His explanation (longer sales cycles, higher approval requirements, modestly better than earlier in the year) is consistent with the Q2 framing but does not yet show the pipeline-to-bookings catch-up that would validate the recovery. This remains a timing-vs-demand question with no clean answer.

Q&A highlights

Jeff Mueller · Baird

Asked about upselling and downselling expectations, federal government trends, and whether improvement in leading indicators for upselling to existing customers is materializing.

Management indicated the selling environment improved modestly in Q3. New enterprise sales are doing well. Upselling to existing enterprises has been hurt most by seat losses rather than growth. However, engagement metrics (document reading, expert conversations, conference attendance) are up significantly as leading indicators. In-quarter retention rates improved from Q2 to Q3, which management sees as positively correlated with upsell potential.

Engagement metrics up significantlyIn-quarter retention rates improved Q2 to Q3Existing enterprise upselling has been most challenged areaNew sales to new enterprises performing well

George Tong · Goldman Sachs

Asked for details on expected trajectory of contract value improvement in 2026, including whether bottoming occurs in Q4 2025 and pacing of acceleration to high single-digit growth.

Management indicated they will provide more detailed 2026 guidance in February Q4 earnings. Confirmed expectation to re-accelerate over course of 2026 into high single-digit growth rates, then continue accelerating back to double-digit growth and medium-term objective range. Growth can be lumpy but favorable comparisons in H1 2026 support expectation of acceleration over the year.

Expected CV acceleration to high single-digit growth in 2026Favorable year-over-year comparisons in H1 2026Further detail to come in February guidancePath to double-digit growth beyond 2026

Andrew Nicholas · William Blair

Followed up on tariff-impacted industry performance relative to rest of business, and whether conservative assumptions should be applied to 2026 improvement expectations given recent tariff trends.

Non-tariff affected industries grew about 200 basis points faster than tariff-affected industries, roughly consistent with Q2. Management expects tariff-impacted industries to actually perform better in 2026 due to increased certainty allowing clients to make purchase decisions they previously deferred. Clients in these industries still need help with AI, cybersecurity, and data analytics.

Non-tariff industries ~200 bps faster than tariff-impactedTariff certainty improving purchasing decisionsTariff-impacted industries expected to improve in 2026Performance consistent with Q2 trends

Manav Patnik · Barclays

Asked for clarification on the disconnect between double-digit pipeline growth and 4% new business decline, and requested sizing of tariff-impacted business as percentage of total CV.

Management explained pipeline is a leading indicator but not a guarantee, and reflects named opportunities with multiple seller conversations. The challenging selling environment persists with longer sales cycles and higher approval requirements, though modestly better than earlier in year. About 40% of total CV is tariff-affected; within tech vendor, approximately 20-30% is tariff-affected. Pipeline growth is promising given it builds during peak conference quarter.

40% of total CV in tariff-affected sectors20-30% of tech vendor CV in tariff-affected subsectorsPipeline up double-digits despite 4% new business declineLonger sales cycles and higher approval requirements persist

Tony Kaplan · Morgan Stanley

Asked about expected sales headcount growth in 2026 relative to CV growth, and whether corporate headcount reductions and AI efficiency gains might shift preference toward enterprise-based licensing model.

Management expects headcount growth 3-4 percentage points slower than expected CV growth to drive productivity gains while sustaining growth. On enterprise vs. seat-based model: target clients are C-level executives and their direct reports, a narrow group for whom enterprise licensing adds limited value since content is role-specific. Developer-level content would not be useful to C-suite audience. Management acknowledged enterprise-focused products could be future growth avenue but not current focus.

Headcount growth expected 3-4 points slower than CV growthTarget customer base is C-level plus direct reports (narrow group)Enterprise model not suited to current narrow target customer profileFuture enterprise products possible but not current strategic priority

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Insights revenue growth re-acceleration. Insights grew 5.1% reported / 3.6% FX-neutral in Q3 FY2025, vs. 4.2% FX-neutral in Q2 — on the like-for-like FX-neutral basis the trajectory actually softened modestly, with FX masking the underlying step-down.

Continue monitoring

Federal renewal cohort completion. Safian disclosed that nearly all US federal contracts renew in 2025 with more than 85% transacted through Q3, YTD dollar retention ~46%, and ~$165M federal CV remaining at September 30. The cohort is being worked through largely on schedule and is the identifiable driver of the 3.0% vs. 6.0% (ex-Fed) headline gap. Status: Resolved (transparency improved; drag quantified and nearing wind-down)

Tariff-industry CV trajectory. Management sized tariff-affected CV at 40% of total and reframed the 2026 setup as tariff-impacted industries performing better — not just normalizing — due to tariff certainty unlocking deferred deals. Non-tariff verticals grew ~200bps faster than tariff-impacted ones in Q3, consistent with Q2. The bullish reframe is a new claim that bears watching. Status: Resolved negatively (drag persisted; recovery thesis pushed to 2026)

AskGartner monetization signal. Recurring analyst theme in Q&A; Hall said AskGartner is driving more readership of the same content (not different content), and engagement metrics broadly were cited as "up significantly" — but no quantified attach, usage, or retention disclosure tied specifically to AskGartner exposure.

Continue monitoring

Pipeline-to-bookings conversion. Safian quantified the gap explicitly in response to Barclays: pipeline up double-digits, new business down ~4% ex-Fed (-12% GTS, -10% GBS reported). The gap persists. Management attributes it to longer sales cycles and higher approval thresholds, not demand destruction. Status: Resolved negatively (gap did not close)

What to watch into next quarter

February 2026 CV guidance specificity. Management deferred the detailed 2026 guide. Watch whether the "high single-digit" CV framing comes with the same precise bps stack as Q2 (DOGE + tariff + tech vendor + operations) or remains qualitative. A vaguer guide implies lower internal conviction than the Q2 framing claimed.

Q4 FY2025 CV growth — is this the bottom? Tong's question and management's answer implied Q4 FY2025 should mark the trough before 2026 acceleration. Headline CV has decelerated from 4.9% → 3.0% FX-neutral over two quarters; ex-Fed has held near 6%. Watch whether Q4 headline prints below 3.0% (recovery deferred) or whether ex-Fed accelerates further as the federal cohort substantially clears.

Tariff-exposed CV cohort growth disclosure. Management's claim that tariff-impacted industries will perform better in 2026 (not just normalize) is a fresh, aggressive framing. Watch for a specific tariff-cohort growth rate disclosure in Q4 or February that backs the claim, or an admission that "certainty unlocks demand" was overstated.

Conferences and Consulting return to growth. Conferences -1.6% and Consulting -3.2% in Q3 after +13.6%/+8.8% in Q2 is a sharp reversal. Conferences on a same-conference basis grew ~6% FX-neutral, and Consulting had a large project slip out of Q3 — both partially explanatory. The FY2025 guides (Conferences ≥$630M, Consulting ≥$575M) still require Q4 to firm; watch whether the slipped Consulting project closes in Q4.

Adjusted EBITDA margin trajectory. Q3 margin was 22.8% vs. 26.3% in Q2 (-350bps QoQ) despite the FY EBITDA raise. The new FY ≥$1.575B / 24.3% margin guide combined with the ≥$400M Q4 EBITDA guide implies Q4 margin steps up materially — watch whether Q4 delivers, and whether the implied exit run-rate supports the 2026 investment posture.

Sources

Gartner Q3 FY2025 press release (SEC 8-K exhibit 99.1): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/749251/000074925125000080/it-09302025xex991_gdm.htm
Gartner Q3 FY2025 earnings call — prepared remarks and Q&A (Gene Hall, CEO; Craig Safian, CFO).

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