ITW · Q1 2026 Earnings
CautiousIllinois Tool Works
Reported April 30, 2026
30-second summary
30-second take: ITW raised FY2026 GAAP EPS guidance by $0.10 to $11.10–$11.50 on the back of Q1 GAAP EPS of $2.66 (+12% YoY) and revenue of $4.02B (+4.6% YoY, including 3.9% FX tailwind), but organic growth came in at just 0.4% — well below the 1–3% FY range and right back in the low-end-trending pattern that defined 2025. Operating margin 25.4% (+60bps YoY) but 110bps below the FY 26.5% floor, with enterprise initiatives contributing 120bps (above the 100bps FY guide), and FCF conversion fell to 69% versus the >100% FY commitment (in line with Q1 seasonality; Q1 2025 was 71%). The EPS raise is real but is being funded largely by a narrower, lower tax rate (23–24% vs prior 23.5–24.5%) and FX — not by demand inflection. Management's tone turned decidedly more bullish on order activity in T&M and welding, but the print itself doesn't yet validate it.
Headline numbers
EPS
Q1 FY2026
$2.66
Revenue
Q1 FY2026
$4.02B
+4.6% YoY
Gross margin
Q1 FY2026
43.8%
Free cash flow
Q1 FY2026
$0.53B
Operating margin
Q1 FY2026
25.4%
Key financials
Q1 FY2026| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | YoY | Q4 FY2025 | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.02B | +4.6% | $4.10B | -2.0% |
| EPS | $2.66 | — | $2.72 | -2.2% |
| Gross margin | 43.8% | — | 44.2% | -40bps |
| Operating margin | 25.4% | — | 26.5% | -110bps |
| Free cash flow | $0.53B | — | $0.90B | -41.3% |
Guidance
ITW raised FY2026 GAAP EPS guidance by $0.10 per share while maintaining full-year revenue and margin outlooks; tax rate guidance narrowed lower.
Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.
Changes to prior guidance
| Metric | Period | Prior guide | New guide | Δ | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | FY2026 | $11.00–$11.40 | $11.10–$11.50 | +$0.10 at midpoint | Raised |
| Effective tax rate | FY2026 | 23.5%–24.5% | 23%–24% | −50 bps at low end; −50 bps at high end | Lowered |
Segment KPIs
Q1 FY2026| Segment | Q1 FY2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive OEM | $0.82B | +4.4% |
| Food Equipment | $0.637B | +1.7% |
| Test & Measurement and Electronics | $0.715B | +9.6% |
| Welding | $0.507B | +7.3% |
| Polymers & Fluids | $0.452B | +5.4% |
| Construction Products | $0.458B | +3.4% |
| Specialty Products | $0.431B | -1.0% |
Other KPIs
Q1 FY2026| Segment | Q1 FY2026 |
|---|---|
| Organic Revenue Growth | 0.4% |
| Foreign Currency Translation Impact | 3.9% |
| Operating Cash Flow | $623 million |
| Free Cash Flow to Net Income Conversion Rate | 69% |
| Enterprise Initiatives Operating Margin Contribution | 120 bps |
| After-Tax Return on Average Invested Capital | 27.1% |
| Share Repurchases | $375 million |
| Effective Tax Rate | 20.6% |
Management tone
Q2 structural outperformance framing → Q3 measured caution despite operational delivery → Q4 broad-based recovery posture (still "solid") → Q1 bullish demand inflection narrative.
The "green shoots" of last quarter graduated to "sustainable recovery" this quarter. Three quarters ago T&M was described as cyclically weak with capital equipment soft; last quarter management cautiously flagged "green shoots"; this quarter the framing has hardened. The anchor quote: "the green shoots we talked about last quarter begin to look more like a sustainable recovery" with "increasing fabulization, encouraging customer signals and response to new products, as well as strong order activity all support the view that the positive demand trends... are sustainable in the near term." The shift from speculative early-cycle language to durability language is the most consequential tone change in the brief — and it's backed by T&M/Electronics segment organic accelerating to its highest rate in three years.
Order rates now explicitly running ahead of reported revenue — a leading-indicator claim not previously made. In Q3 and Q4, management's posture was defensive: organic growth was trending to the lower end and Q4 was "roughly flat sequentially." This quarter, in response to Jamie Cook (Truist), management stated that order rates in welding and test/measurement are meaningfully higher than reported organic growth, and not yet reflected in guidance. This is a structurally different forward signal than anything offered in the prior three quarters — it implies the unchanged organic growth guide carries upside, not downside, risk. The choice to nonetheless leave the organic guide unchanged at +1–3% (with Q1 at 0.4%) reads as preserved conservatism rather than absent conviction. Notably, management also updated EPS cadence from the prior 47/53 H1/H2 split to 48/52 — less back-end-loaded than 2025 and the prior guide, reinforcing the slightly more confident posture.
Construction Products narrative pivoted from resilience-on-decline to actual organic recovery. For 11+ consecutive quarters through Q3 2025, the Construction story was "margins expand despite revenue declines." Q4's −3.5% organic with speculative "2026 could be the year" framing was the first crack in the bear narrative. This quarter delivered "the best organic growth performance in four years" at +3.4% total revenue. Management didn't dwell on it — but the four-year-high framing is doing meaningful work, given how much investor patience this segment has cost.
Confidence language stepped up versus typical ITW conservatism. The vs-typical framing is unmistakable: "As order activity continues to strengthen across several of our end markets, our production capacity, new product pipeline, and best-in-class customer-facing metrics, position us to take market share." The "take market share" language is new and forward-leaning. Combined with the explicit CBI commitment to "consistently deliver 3% plus CBI contribution to revenue by 2030... the key driver of our ability to consistently deliver 4% plus high quality organic growth," management is anchoring a structural growth narrative to specific multi-year targets rather than cycle commentary.
The gap that matters. Tone is bullish; print is muted. Operating margin at 25.4% expanded 60bps YoY but is 110bps below the FY 26.5% floor, organic at 0.4% is below the 1% floor, FCF conversion at 69% (in line with seasonality) is far below the 100% FY commitment. Management is asking the market to look through Q1 to the H2 ramp — exactly the playbook that didn't pay off in 2025.
Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:
Risks management surfaced:
Q&A highlights
Andy Kaplowski · Citi Group
Are CapEx businesses (test and measurement, welding) trending ahead of expectations while consumer specialty and food equipment are below, and how is management thinking about segment growth versus original expectations? Also, are incremental margins being achieved differently given test/measurement and auto strength but food equipment weakness?
Management confirmed all seven segments expected to show positive organic growth. Test and measurement grew >15% (semiconductors/electronics), welding grew 6% with broad-based strength extending into commercial platforms. Even challenged consumer markets are outgrowing their respective markets. Margin incrementals remain on track for mid-to-high 40s with 100 bps operating margin improvement expected; Q1 food equipment weakness was isolated to institutional end market in January and improving.
Jamie Cook · Truist Security
What is management's confidence level on short-cycle momentum given geopolitical uncertainty (Iran), macro concerns, and any changes in sales cadence through Q1 and into April? Also, update on CBI contribution expected for 2026 and whether management is contemplating portfolio refocus given some products struggling with CBI adoption.
Management stated confidence has increased since last call; Q1 came in in line with plan and better than expected step-down from Q4. Order rates in welding and test/measurement are meaningfully higher than reported organic growth, not yet reflected in guidance. Guidance based on current run rates. On CBI, strong momentum across all seven segments with increasing pipeline strength; 40 bps CBI yield improvement in 2025 tracking to deliver incremental improvement in 2026 toward 3%+ by 2030. Patent filings up 18% in 2024, 9% in 2025 with additional increases expected in 2026.
Tammy Zakaria · JP Morgan
How does management view the impact of GLP-1 drug proliferation on demand from restaurants and hospitality within the food equipment business, particularly given strong QSR growth in Q1?
Management stated GLP-1 is 'early days' and 'not something we're giving a lot of thought to.' Noted that restaurants represent smaller portion of food equipment business, with institutional being largest. QSR specifically (most directly impacted by GLP-1) is smaller piece of the business, though growing. Emphasized that food equipment is fertile for innovation with room for customer-backed solutions expected to offset any pressures.
Steven Vogtman · Jefferies
Is the QSR market actually turning, or is the strong QSR growth at ITW-specific driven by internal initiatives rather than market improvement?
Management stated it's hard to say whether the market is turning but highlighted ITW-specific innovation gains in QSR space. New product launches across all food equipment categories in 2026 driven by critical customer pain points (energy, water, labor savings). QSR growth appears largely innovation-driven. Service business provides 3-4-5% organic growth at attractive margins, buffering lumpiness in QSR capital equipment sales.
Julian Mitchell · Barclays
Does guidance to higher end of 1-3% organic growth range assume total company organic growth improvement, and given Q1 was flat, is there anything on price inflation later in year driving higher growth? Also, on margins, given strong Q1 start, what should be expected for welding margins and overall operating leverage through 2026?
Management clarified organic growth guidance remains 1-3% based on typical seasonality and plan assumptions. Divisions now expect more price realization than originally planned, coming through primarily in Q2 and carrying into Q3-Q4, due to inflationary pressures. Nothing materially changed relative to guidance except positive demand trends in two specific segments. All segments expected to improve margins Q2 vs Q1, with sequential improvement in Q3 and Q4. Welding has best-in-class margins so less upside expected; test & measurement should see solid operating leverage. Enterprise initiatives expected to drive at least 100 basis points of improvement.
Answers to last quarter's watch list
What to watch into next quarter
Q2 organic growth print versus the order-rate claim. Management explicitly stated order rates in T&M and welding are running meaningfully ahead of reported revenue. Q2 organic above 1.5% would validate that claim and put the FY +1–3% guide in the upper half of range; a print below 1% — with Q1 at 0.4% — would force a mid-year organic guide cut and re-open the 2025 "low-end-trending" pattern.
Q2 operating margin recovery toward the FY floor. Q1 landed 110bps below the 26.5% guide floor. Management committed to sequential improvement across all segments and called out >100bps of sequential improvement Q1→Q2. Watch for a Q2 print of 26.5%+ as the structural validation; sustained sub-26% would force a margin guide cut and undermine the structural mid-to-high 40s incremental margin claim that anchors the bull case.
FCF conversion recovery. Q1 conversion of 69% is in line with seasonality but materially below the FY >100% commitment. Q2 conversion needs to step meaningfully above 100% to put the FY commitment in reach; another sub-90% print would call the cash-quality story into question.
Automotive OEM China trajectory. China auto bills down 10% in Q1 with management guiding flat for Q2. Watch whether Q2 actuals match or undershoot — a negative print would signal the China auto strength of 2025 has rolled over, removing a key 2025 organic growth contributor.
M&A pipeline disclosure. With $1.5B of buyback unchanged, 2x leverage capacity sitting unused, and no deal announcement two quarters into Q4 management's explicit M&A optionality framing, the silence is hardening into a signal. Watch for either a Q2 announcement or a softening of M&A language — either would resolve the capital allocation question.
Sources
- ITW Q1 2026 press release: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49826/000004982626000025/a20260331-1q26ex991pressre.htm
- ITW Q1 2026 earnings call Q&A excerpts
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