JPM · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

JPMorgan

Reported January 13, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: JPMorgan closed 2025 with $46.8B Q4 revenue (+7% YoY) and $4.63 GAAP EPS at an 18% ROTCE, reaffirming FY2026 NII ex-Markets at ~$95B while disclosing a $105B adjusted expense guide — roughly $9B higher than FY2025's $95.9B, or +9.5%. The card NCO outlook ticked back up to ~3.4% for 2026 after Q3's cut to 3.3%, and Dimon's NBFI "cockroaches" caution has hardened into formal "mindfulness" language without a quantified portfolio breakdown. The franchise is printing 18% returns, but management is preparing investors for materially higher costs and modestly worse credit in 2026.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$4.63

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$46.77B

+7.0% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

51.4%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$46.77B	+7.0%	$46.43B	+0.7%
EPS	$4.63	—	$5.07	-8.7%
Operating margin	51.4%	—	—	—

Guidance

JPMorgan reaffirms FY2026 NII ex-markets at $95B while raising total NII guidance to $103B and adjusted expenses to $105B, signaling expectations for higher costs and modestly elevated credit losses amid resilient consumer demand.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
NII ex-markets	Q4 FY2025	approximately $23.5 billion	$24.995 billion	+$1.5 billion above guide	Met
Total NII	Q4 FY2025	about $25 billion	$24.995 billion	in-line	Met
Adjusted Expenses	Q4 FY2025	approximately $24.5 billion	not disclosed in actuals	—	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Total Net Interest Income	FY 2026	$103 billion	—
Adjusted Noninterest Expense	FY 2026	$105 billion	—
Card Net Charge-Off Rate	FY 2026	approximately 3.4%	—
Markets NII	FY 2026	about $8 billion	—

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: NII ex-markets (Full Year 2026) ($95 billion)

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Consumer & Community Banking	$19.396B	+6.0%
Commercial & Investment Bank	$19.375B	+10.0%
Asset & Wealth Management	$6.516B	+13.0%

Capital & returns

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
CET1 capital ratio	14.5%
Tier 1 capital ratio	15.5%
Return on equity (ROE)	15%
Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE)	18%
Total deposits	$2,559.3 billion

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Total loans	$1,493.4 billion
Net interest income	$24.995 billion
Provision for credit losses	$4.655 billion

Management tone

Q1: Tariff-shock caution → Q2: "Notably more upbeat" → Q3: Credit normalization and NBFI scrutiny → Q4: Defensive cost build for a more competitive 2026.

The two-quarter arc on NBFI has moved from a Dimon one-liner to formal portfolio framing. In Q2 Dimon left the door open to private credit M&A; in Q3 he warned "when you see one cockroach, there are probably more." This quarter the language shifted from rhetorical to operational: "In light of the growth and the novel elements of some components of this activity, we are quite mindful of the risks." Management still declined to quantify NBFI exposure, but the move from anecdote ("cockroaches") to acknowledged structural unknown ("novel elements") suggests internal portfolio scrutiny is escalating without yet producing a public schedule.

On expenses, Barnum's Q3 telegraph that consensus 2026 looked "a little bit low" became a $9B increase. Last quarter Barnum signaled consensus ~$100B was light when adjusted for seasonality and labor inflation. This quarter the FY2026 guide came in at $105B — well above that consensus, and 9.5% above 2025's $95.9B. Jamie justified it directly: "The environment is only getting more competitive, and so it remains critical to ensure that we are making the necessary investments to secure our position against both traditional and non-traditional competitors." This is the cleanest tone shift of the year: from Q3's "old-fashioned expense discipline" framing to Q4's explicit acceptance of structural expense growth as defensive necessity. The buy-side framing of JPM as an efficiency story is being walked back by management.

The consumer narrative is now hedged in a way it wasn't last quarter. Q3 carried "favorable delinquency trends driven by the continued resilience of the consumer." Q4 reads: "despite weak consumer sentiment, trends in our data are largely consistent with historical norms, and we are not currently seeing deterioration." The phrase "not currently seeing deterioration" is doing work — it concedes a watch posture that the Q3 language did not. Paired with the card NCO guide moving from ~3.3% (FY2025) to ~3.4% (FY2026), management is preparing investors for credit to drift, not snap.

On AI and tech spend, Jamie refused to break out a dollar figure or commit to an ROI timeline. Last quarter Barnum walked AI back to "old-fashioned headcount discipline." This quarter Jamie said AI is "not a big driver" of the $9B expense step-up and that efficiency gains "will eventually be passed on to the customer." The unwillingness to either size the AI investment or commit to a payback creates the cleanest earnings risk in the print: if the $9B doesn't translate to revenue, 2026 EPS compression is the residual.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Consumer resilience with monitoring for stress indicatorsNBFI lending growth with acknowledged novel risksRate outlook uncertainty offsetting loan growth benefitsCompetitive intensity driving structural expense growthCapital management amid higher RWAStrong investment banking pipeline for 2026

Risks management surfaced:

Weak consumer sentiment and potential deterioration in leading indicatorsNBFI lending fraud risk and deep recession erosion of credit enhancementApple Card portfolio contribution creating temporary elevated advanced RWA ($110B)Declining IVP revenue from timing of deals pushed to 2026Lower credit trading revenue offsetting fixed income gains

Q&A highlights

Glenn Shore · Evercore

Asked about stablecoin regulatory risk, specifically Treasury's estimate that $6.6 trillion in bank deposits could be at risk if loopholes on interest-bearing stablecoins aren't closed, and what this means for the banking system.

Management acknowledged the issue is material and that all bank types (not just community banks) signed the ABA letter. They articulated that a parallel banking system with deposit-like features but without regulatory safeguards is dangerous and undesirable. However, when pressed on specific systemic risks to deposits, they acknowledged the question involves complex nuances around money flows and securities purchases that make it 'pretty complicated' to quantify. They emphasized the consumer benefit lens as the framework for evaluating these technologies.

ABA, FSF, and ICBA all signed the letter (all banks, not just community banks)Management describes the core advocacy position: avoiding creation of parallel ecosystem with same economic properties and risks without regulation1.7 million net new checking accounts opened year-over-year17% growth in client investment assets noted

John McDonald · Truist Securities

Asked about the strategic rationale for acquiring Apple Card's credit card portfolio and partnership, and separately, inquired about potential regulatory impact if Congress implements APR caps on credit cards.

On Apple Card: management described it as economically compelling for JPMorgan, a win-win-win for all three parties, and highlighted opportunity to partner with a payments innovation leader and gain access to compelling distribution. Integration will take two years due to Apple's custom iOS tech stack requiring full rebuild into JPMorgan's systems. On APR caps: management provided direct answer that price controls would not compress margins (already competitively optimal) but would instead dramatically reduce credit availability, harming consumers—especially subprime borrowers. Acknowledged this would be 'significant challenge' for JPMorgan's card business but declined to quantify impact.

Apple Card integration timeline: 2 yearsReason for timeline: Apple built proprietary iOS-integrated tech stack requiring full rebuild into JPMorgan systemsManagement stated APR caps would result in extensive loss of access to credit, particularly for subprime borrowersCard business is described as 'big business' and 'very competitive business' but 'good business' for JPMorgan

Erica Najarian · UBS

Asked Jamie Dimon about 2026 macro outlook given recent social media posts about credit card rate caps and DOJ subpoenas to Fed Chair Powell, and separately asked Jeremy about balance sheet and deposit growth assumptions underlying NII guidance.

Jamie provided balanced macro view: positive near-term (6-12 months) driven by consumer balance sheets, jobs, stimulus, and deregulation, but flagged significant longer-term risks from geopolitics and large deficits. Did not quantify timing of when deficits 'bite.' Jeremy detailed deposit outlook with tension between strong franchise growth (1.7M accounts) and yield-seeking flows, with balance-per-account inflection expected H2 2026. Noted wholesale deposit growth in 2025 was 'exceptionally strong' and harder to beat in 2026. Discussed Fed's $40B/month T-bill purchases adding liquidity initially to wholesale deposits.

Jamie: Short-term macro outlook positive (6-12 months)Jamie: Geopolitical risk is 'enormous amount of risk'Jamie: Large deficits 'will bite eventually' but timing unknownJeremy: Card loan growth expected ~6-7% in 2026 (lower than recent, reflecting revolver normalization)

Mike Mayo · Wells Fargo Securities

Asked for detailed breakdown of the $9 billion increase in 2026 expense guidance relative to 2025, specifically regarding tech spending growth (on top of recent $17-18B annual tech spend), AI spending and payoff timeline, and Jamie's confidence level in achieving returns from these investments.

Jamie and Jeremy acknowledged the $9B guidance but resisted granular disclosure, citing competitive sensitivity. Jamie emphasized that revenue growth (if it occurs) is embedded in the number and that they are investing across payment systems, AI, consumer personalization, branches, and compliance (SRI initiative described as 'may be far bigger than we thought'). Jeremy added that 'living within our means' discipline continued in 2025 and that hiring is only incremental. Provided color on real estate catch-up for 320,000 employees (described as 'small number') and healthcare inflation ($300M). On tech specifically: Jamie stated tech spend 'is going to go up' and is needed to compete with fintech and traditional peers, but cautioned that efficiency gains will eventually be passed to customers. On AI: stated spending will increase but 'not a big driver' and payoff will drive 'efficiency down the road.' Jamie refused to provide specific AI spending figures or ROI timeline.

2026 expense guidance increase: $9 billion year-over-yearJeremy: Expense guidance includes Apple Card spending, inflation, and revenue-contingent itemsJeremy: Real estate spend described as 'very small number,' catch-up for headcount growthJeremy: Healthcare spend ~$300M

Ibrahim Punawalla · Bank of America

Asked whether JPMorgan has received any communication from the administration about implementation of credit card APR caps announced via social media on Jan 20th, and asked about appropriate level of excess capital relative to regulatory minimums.

On APR caps: Jeremy stated no substantive information available and declined to answer whether there had been administration communication, citing the speed and unconventional nature (social

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether the preliminary FY2026 NII ex-Markets guide of ~$95B is reaffirmed or revised — Reaffirmed at ~$95B. Management additionally disclosed total NII of ~$103B implying ~$8B of Markets NII benefit from lower funding costs post rate cuts. The base case held. Status: Resolved positively

NBFI portfolio disclosure or write-downs — No portfolio breakdown disclosed. Management formalized the risk posture ("quite mindful of the risks," "novel elements") but did not provide an exposure schedule or incremental NBFI-specific provision. Q4 provisioning of $4.66B was elevated versus Q3's $3.40B but not attributed publicly to NBFI. Status: Not resolved

Card NCO trajectory after the cut to 3.3% — FY2026 guide came in at ~3.4%, +10bps vs FY2025 actuals tracking ~3.3%. The "favorable delinquency trends" language has softened to "favorable delinquency trends" caveated by weaker consumer sentiment. The give-back the watch list flagged has materialized at modest scale. Status: Resolved negatively

Q4 expense print vs. the ~$24.5B guide and the implied 2026 ~$100B+ run-rate — Q4 adjusted expense actuals not explicitly disclosed in the supplement detail, but FY2026 guidance of $105B came in materially above Barnum's Q3 telegraph that consensus ~$100B looked "a little bit low." The labor inflation framing was vindicated and then some — $5B above the soft signal. Status: Resolved negatively

CET1 at 14.8% with continued RWA expansion, watch buyback pace — CET1 dropped another 30bps to 14.5%, partially driven by a temporary $110B advanced RWA increase from Apple Card portfolio onboarding. Buyback pace remained subdued as flagged. No inorganic deal announced. Status: Resolved positively (capital discipline held, NBFI M&A door narrowed further)

What to watch into next quarter

Whether the FY2026 NII ex-Markets guide of ~$95B holds through the Q1 budget refresh — three consecutive quarters of reaffirmation would lock the central case; any cut would expose the rate-cut drag is biting harder than the curve implies

NBFI exposure disclosure or a wholesale provision build — two quarters of escalating language without a portfolio schedule sets up Q1 to either deliver disclosure or be exposed as macro-prudential signaling; watch wholesale provisions specifically

Card NCO formation vs. the ~3.4% FY2026 guide — if early-2026 delinquency formation tracks above the implied path, the guide cuts again; if below, the 3.3% trajectory resumes

Q1 expense print as a percent of the $105B FY2026 guide — annualizing Q1 will tell investors whether the $9B step-up is front-loaded (Apple Card integration) or evenly distributed, which matters for full-year EPS phasing

CET1 trajectory as Apple Card RWA normalizes from $110B — management framed this as temporary; watch how fast it rolls off and whether buyback pace inflects when it does

Any quantification of AI spend or efficiency targets — Jamie's "not a big driver" framing and refusal to size the investment is the print's biggest disclosure gap; an Investor Day or quarterly disclosure adding specificity would materially de-risk the expense narrative

Sources

JPMorgan Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release Supplement, SEC Form 8-K Exhibit 99.2 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000162828026001902/a4q25erfex992supplement.htm
JPMorgan Q4 2025 earnings call (management prepared remarks and Q&A)

Get the next brief, free.

We publish analyst-grade earnings briefs the same day or morning after every call — headline numbers, segment KPIs, Q&A highlights, and tone analysis. Free during beta.

This is not investment advice.