LII · Q1 2026 Earnings
CautiousLennox International
Reported April 29, 2026
30-second summary
Lennox put up Q1 FY2026 revenue of $1.135B (+6% YoY) and EPS of $3.35 (-8% YoY) with the two segments pulling in opposite directions — Building Climate Solutions revenue up 38% (26% organic) and Home Comfort Solutions down 10% with a $15M total enterprise factory under-absorption hit weighing on segment profit. Management raised FY2026 revenue growth guidance to ~8% (from 6–7%) with organic now explicitly at ~4%, broke out segment guidance (HCS now ~4% growth vs. prior ~2%; BCS now ~16%), but held the EPS range of $23.50–$25.00 flat — the revenue raise is being absorbed by tariff inflation, not flowing to earnings. Full-year margins are now expected to decline slightly vs. the slight expansion management guided in January.
Headline numbers
EPS
Q1 FY2026
$3.35
Revenue
Q1 FY2026
$1.14B
+6.0% YoY
Gross margin
Q1 FY2026
30.9%
Free cash flow
Q1 FY2026
$-0.04B
Operating margin
Q1 FY2026
14.4%
Key financials
Q1 FY2026| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | YoY | Q4 FY2025 | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.14B | +6.0% | $1.20B | -5.0% |
| EPS | $3.35 | — | $4.45 | -24.7% |
| Gross margin | 30.9% | — | 32.6% | -170bps |
| Operating margin | 14.4% | — | 16.4% | -200bps |
| Free cash flow | $-0.04B | — | $0.38B | -110.3% |
Guidance
Company raised full-year revenue growth guidance from 6-7% to approximately 8%, while maintaining EPS and FCF ranges; organic growth now explicitly disclosed at ~4%.
Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.
New guidance
| Metric | Period | Guide | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organic revenue growth | FY 2026 | approximately 4% | — |
Changes to prior guidance
| Metric | Period | Prior guide | New guide | Δ | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | FY 2026 | approximately 6% to 7% | approximately 8% | +1-2 percentage points | Raised |
| Capital expenditures | FY 2026 | approximately $250 million | Withdrawn — no replacement | — | Withdrawn |
Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: EPS (GAAP) ($23.50 to $25.00), Free Cash Flow ($750 million to $850 million)
Segment KPIs
Q1 FY2026| Segment | Q1 FY2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Home Comfort Solutions | $0.65B | -10.0% |
| Building Climate Solutions | $0.485B | +38.0% |
Other KPIs
Q1 FY2026| Segment | Q1 FY2026 |
|---|---|
| Home Comfort Solutions Segment Margin | 13.3% |
| Building Climate Solutions Segment Margin | 19.7% |
| Total Segment Profit Margin | 14.4% |
| Building Climate Solutions Organic Sales Growth | 26% |
| Building Climate Solutions Acquisitions Growth | 12% |
Management tone
Narrative arc: Q2 FY2025 "raise on momentum" → Q3 FY2025 "transitional year, destocking through Q2 FY2026" → Q4 FY2025 "industry normalizes; M&A carries the recovery" → Q1 FY2026 "operational discipline against tariff inflation"
Two quarters ago management was preparing for a destocking-driven trough; last quarter the framing was that industry normalization would lift FY2026, with M&A doing 4pp of the work. This quarter the destocking story has effectively resolved on schedule but a new headwind — tariff inflation — has displaced it as the operating concern. The verbatim Q&A quote from the call: "we are focused on productivity measures, supply chain optimization, and thoughtful pricing actions" while "macro uncertainties persist." That is a tighter operational posture than the constructive backdrop language in Q4 and signals management is now managing through cost, not demand.
The price/cost timing mismatch is the most material new disclosure. Three quarters ago pricing was framed as a stable mix tailwind; last quarter management split it into 1–2pp H1 carryover plus new pricing initiatives in H2; this quarter price increases were "announced this week" with effect "predominantly in H2 (some in late Q2)" while cost inflation is hitting now. Management's H1/H2 EPS profitability split is held similar to prior guide, but that requires the announced pricing to land — analyst (Chris Snyder) cited 90% vs prior 75% incremental drop-through, and management confirmed the price/mix mechanics (price ~100% incremental, mix ~50%) drive a higher blended drop-through as price weighting rises. The mechanics are coherent; the execution risk is concentrated in H2.
The HCS recovery has been deferred again. Q3 FY2025 said HCS margins would normalize as destocking ended in Q2 FY2026; Q4 FY2025 guided HCS "flat to slightly down" for the year; this quarter HCS came in at 13.3% margin with management saying recovery is "contingent on H2 volume recovery and absorption normalization." That is the third consecutive quarter of HCS margin pushed further out. The factory under-absorption is described as temporary, but the dependence on H2 volume recovery is the same load-bearing assumption that was made last quarter and the quarter before.
The tariff acknowledgment is the most direct admission in the call. From Q&A: company runs daily 7 a.m. tariff "war crisis type" calls with experts, and mitigation requires "a lot of time" — supply chain moves, manufacturing relocation, SKU optimization. No major reshoring is planned until policy stabilizes. That is honest scoping of the problem, but it also tells you tariff costs are likely a FY2027 carryover issue, not just a FY2026 line item.
Q&A highlights
Noah Kay · Oppenheimer
Clarification on FIFO conversion timing impacts, specifically how cost increases and price realization will flow through the P&L in 2Q and 2H, and whether previous guidance on H1/H2 EPS splits remains valid.
Michael explained most cost and price impact will fall in H2, with price increases announced this week taking effect predominantly in H2 (some in late Q2). H1/H2 profitability splits should remain similar to prior guidance despite revenue weighting shifting to H2. Q2 will see some absorption headwinds continuing, but inventory normalization will be complete by end of Q2.
Julian Mitchell · Barclays
Operating margin guidance dynamics: is the company expecting flat consolidated margins, with HCS down and BCS up offsetting? How quickly will HCS margins recover from Q1 headwinds?
Michael confirmed slight margin decline expected for full year (vs. slight expansion in January guidance) due to increased cost inflation and tariffs. BCS margins expected up organically, HCS down organically. M&A will have slight drag. HCS margin recovery dependent on volume recovery and elimination of factory under-absorption; improved incrementals expected in H2 as volumes recover.
Chris Snyder · Morgan Stanley
Clarification on price-cost dynamics in H2: mid-single-digit pricing guidance appears unchanged, but why did incremental drop-through improve from 75% to 90%? How does HCS need to perform to reach full-year guidance?
Alok confirmed mid-single-digit pricing remains broad range, with higher drop-through (90% vs. 75% prior) due to higher price component relative to mix in incremental guidance. Price has 100% incremental while mix typically 50%, so higher price weighting boosts blended drop-through. HCS guidance assumes easier comps in H2 (especially Q3 with canister shortage anniversary), Q2 canister issue impact from prior year, and Q1 driven by 410A pre-buy behavior last year.
Jeff Sprague · Vertical Research
Breakdown of inflation headwinds between tariff-driven and commodity-driven components; what percentage is hedged? Will pricing fully mitigate 2026-2027 carryover impacts?
Michael stated company is approximately 78% hedged on input cost inflation via hedging programs and fixed contracts. Of the 5% cost inflation guidance, hedging/fixed contracts cover 20% and tariffs represent balance (~80%). Tariff mitigation is incomplete; company pursuing supply chain moves, manufacturing moves, product SKU optimization, and sourcing alternatives (U.S. steel, Mexico production) but these take considerable time. Confidence in ability to mitigate but full mitigation not yet achieved.
Amit Mehrotra · UBS
Section 232 tariff scope and impact: detailed breakdown of how it affects product flows (Mexico-sourced, compressors, components crossing borders), net steel content vs. total value implications.
Alok acknowledged scope is wide and complex, involving multiple tariff classification codes and secondary impacts. Company runs daily 7 a.m. tariff crisis calls with experts. Primary impacts well-understood once products classified; secondary impacts emerging as challenging. Not new to tariff uncertainty (occurred in prior year with tie changes). Approach is flexible, adaptable, moving products/raw materials as needed, working with vendors to share pain. Every metal manufacturer impacted. Offered offline discussion for detailed analysis; no current major reshoring plans until policy stabilizes.
Answers to last quarter's watch list
What to watch into next quarter
HCS Q2 margin trajectory — Q1 trough was 13.3%; Q2 carries continuing absorption headwinds before clearing by quarter-end per management. Watch whether Q2 HCS margin holds above 15% or breaks lower — sub-15% would signal the H2 recovery is becoming structurally harder to deliver.
Pricing realization in late Q2 — management cited "some" of the announced price increases landing late in Q2. Watch the Q2 mix/price contribution to revenue; a soft contribution would signal the H2 pricing ramp is slipping.
BCS organic deceleration — Q1 organic was +26% against a ~16% FY guide. Watch whether Q2 BCS organic holds above +15%; a sharp deceleration would suggest Q1 pulled forward demand rather than confirming an inflection.
FCF cash conversion run-rate — Q1 burned $38.7M; the $750–850M FY guide requires ~$830M across the next three quarters. Watch Q2 operating cash flow trend — a weak Q2 OCF print puts the FY guide at risk.
Tariff mitigation progress — management said full mitigation requires "considerable time" and is incomplete. Watch for any quantification of tariff cost reduction in Q2 commentary; absent visible mitigation progress, the FY2027 setup carries embedded carryover cost pressure.
Sources
- Lennox International Q1 FY2026 press release (SEC EDGAR): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1069202/000106920226000052/lii-20260331xexx991pressre.htm
- Q&A commentary integrated from supplied analyst exchange extraction.
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