LOW · Q1 2025 Earnings
CautiousLowe's
Reported May 21, 2025
30-second summary
Revenue fell 2.0% YoY to $20.93B on comps of -1.7%, with management citing weather and persistent DIY big-ticket weakness; pro and online both posted mid-single-digit comp growth. Lowe's affirmed full-year guidance (sales $83.5–84.5B, EPS $12.15–12.40, comps flat to +1%) and separately announced the $1.325B Artisan Design Group acquisition — a tacit admission that organic pro growth alone won't close the gap to the $50B addressable opportunity. The tone was defensive: substantial airtime on China sourcing reduction (40% → 20%) and AI deployment, not demand recovery.
Headline numbers
EPS
Q1 FY2025
$2.92
Revenue
Q1 FY2025
$20.93B
-2.0% YoY
Gross margin
Q1 FY2025
33.4%
Free cash flow
Q1 FY2025
$2.86B
Operating margin
Q1 FY2025
11.9%
Key financials
Q1 FY2025| Metric | Q1 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $20.93B | -2.0% |
| EPS | $2.92 | — |
| Gross margin | 33.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 11.9% | — |
| Free cash flow | $2.86B | — |
Guidance
Prior quarter data unavailable — comparison not possible.
Platform metrics
Q1 FY2025| Segment | Q1 FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Comparable Sales Growth | -1.7% |
| Pro Comparable Sales Growth | mid-single-digit |
| Online Comparable Sales Growth | mid-single-digit |
| Customer Satisfaction Ranking | #1 among Home Improvement Retailers (J.D. Power 2025) |
| Store Count | 1,750 stores |
| Retail Selling Space | 195.3 million sq ft |
| Weekly Customer Transactions | ~16 million |
Profitability
Q1 FY2025| Segment | Q1 FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Operating Margin | 11.92% |
Management tone
Five distinct shifts mark this quarter's commentary, all pointing toward a company repositioning for a longer, harder demand cycle than the "temporary headwinds" framing of prior calls.
Housing weakness is being treated as structural, not cyclical. Prior commentary leaned on the language of temporary mortgage-rate-driven softness; this quarter, Marvin Ellison devoted substantial prepared-remarks airtime to supply-chain derisking, with sourcing from China cut from ~40% to ~20%. His line — "Although we're pleased with this reduced dependency, we're not satisfied, and we're working to accelerate our diversification efforts" — signals that management is building the operating model for a multi-year environment of constrained demand and trade-policy risk, not bridging to a near-term recovery.
Pro is no longer treated as sufficient on its own. The $1.325B ADG acquisition is the loudest statement in the release. Ellison framed it as engaging "a larger pro with their plan span in a new distribution channel" — coded language for the fact that organic pro initiatives (Total Home, MVPs Pro Rewards) have not been enough to close the gap to the $50B pro TAM. M&A is now the primary lever, not the supplemental one.
DIY discretionary weakness has shifted from "pause" to "deferral." Bill Boltz's acknowledgment that "bigger ticket project spending remains under pressure in interior categories like flooring and kitchens and baths, with many customers still choosing to delay those larger purchases" is more durable language than prior quarters. Brandon Sink explicitly stated that a discretionary inflection is not baked into 2025 guidance — meaning the FY plan assumes the soft DIY environment persists.
AI moved from concept to deployed infrastructure. Both customer-facing (Milo, the AI virtual advisor) and associate-facing (MyLo Companion, deployed across 1,700+ stores) tools were positioned as production systems. Joe McFarland's framing — "marking the first time a retailer has successfully implemented this kind of technology at scale" — is a competitive-positioning claim, not an exploratory one.
Marketplace has accelerated from pilot to growth vector. The Mirakl partnership announcement, paired with Ellison's "we're still in the early days" hedge, signals management views marketplace as a material future revenue stream with no inventory or capex burden — a notable departure from the "test and learn" framing of prior quarters.
Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:
Risks management surfaced:
Q&A highlights
Simeon Gutman · Morgan Stanley
Asked about the relationship between comp growth and operating leverage for the rest of the year, particularly regarding expense leverage on a 25 basis point comp expansion basis, and questioned whether Lowe's is getting more out of the business or if it's timing-related.
Brandon detailed comp guidance by half: first half roughly flat (weather story with Q2 expected at ~1.5% due to spring shift from Q1), second half implied at ~plus 1% driven by total home sales momentum offsetting hurricane pressure. Gross margins expected flat for full year with PPI portfolio initiatives offsetting cost pressures. SG&A outperforming with roughly 500 million in OPEX offsets across multiple pressure points, supporting full-year operating income guidance of 12.3-12.4%.
Robbie Ohms · Bank of America
Asked about tariff impacts on pricing, private brand versus vendor price increases, and how management is navigating tariff pressure. Follow-up asked about marketplace potential and scale.
Marvin emphasized portfolio approach to pricing using best-in-class price management tools and strong supplier relationships developed over six years, noting they will remain price competitive and not donate market share. Bill detailed global sourcing: ~60% from U.S., ~20% from China (holiday, trim/tree, ceiling fans, small appliances, tools), with active diversification efforts ongoing. On marketplace, Marvin highlighted partnership with Miracle (number one tech platform for large marketplace sellers), first product marketplace in home improvement, high expectations based on global retail benchmarks, ability to manage premium/value products without incremental capex or inventory, and world-class sellers eager to join.
Scott Ciccarelli · Truist Securities
Asked what percentage of mix big-ticket projects represent on annualized basis and what is needed to unlock greater activity in that segment—improved consumer confidence, lower interest rates, or something else.
Marvin described overall consumer as healthy from balance sheet perspective with positive historic demand drivers (home price appreciation, aging housing stock, growing disposable income faster than inflation, rising real income, lower debt), but noted DIY customer pulling back on large discretionary driven by elevated mortgage rates (~7% for 30-year). Brandon added affordability challenge is primary concern; trends not worsening but consumer remains on sidelines waiting for sustained increase in discretionary projects and DIY traffic (not expected or baked into 2025 guidance). Bill highlighted appliance strength as bright spot with strength across all major categories, new innovative products, strong delivery capabilities (2-day across country, same-day available), and best-in-stock position ever.
Steven Zicone · Citigroup
Asked whether environment has become more competitive from non-traditional retailers (e.g., Amazon, e-commerce players) expanding in home improvement and rural areas, and whether Lowe's views this as a threat given their own rural expansion strategy.
Marvin acknowledged retail has always been competitive and e-commerce makes it more so, but emphasized Lowe's competitive advantages: product knowledge, store environment, shopability (in-store and online), investment in technology, and J.D. Power ranking as number one in customer service in home improvement sector. Joe highlighted MyLo app for associates (adoption ahead of schedule), gig delivery network (e.g., Mulch Madness for DIY), extended aisle in-store, and omnichannel capabilities giving associates access to full inventory across store, warehouse, special order.
Christopher Horvitz · J.P. Morgan
Asked whether pro business experienced weather impact in Q1 given moderation from last year's pace, and about tariff impact on gross margin rate, specifically regarding FIFO inventory accounting creating potential sine curve benefit earlier.
Marvin confirmed weather absolutely impacted pro business in Q1; as weather moderates, business improves, with April comp adjustment positive. Pro loyalty program (MyLo Pro Rewards) seeing strong adoption and new customer acquisition. Marvin stated confidence in pro playbook trajectory. On tariffs/margin, Marvin reiterated tools to manage impact while minimizing customer impact and remaining price competitive, with margin management through portfolio approach and line structure work; confident in delivering guidance. Brandon clarified gross margin expected flat for full year inclusive of trade policy impacts. With FIFO accounting methodology, incremental costs will flow through as inventory layers turn. Current strong inventory visibility means FIFO impact concentrated in second half. Mitigation actions expected to offset majority of second half impact.
What to watch into next quarter
Q2 comp delivery vs the ~+1.5% directional guide — management has explicitly attributed the Q1 miss to weather and $400M of spring demand shifting into Q2. If Q2 comps land below +1%, the weather narrative breaks and the FY flat-to-+1% guide becomes untenable.
Gross margin trajectory in 2H — Sink committed to roughly flat FY gross margin inclusive of tariff impacts, but FIFO accounting concentrates tariff cost flow-through in 2H. Watch whether Q2 gross margin holds near the 33.38% delivered in Q1.
ADG close and initial integration disclosures — deal is expected to close in Q2; first commentary on revenue synergies, pro penetration uplift, and the path to FY2026 EPS accretion will reset the pro growth narrative.
China sourcing percentage — management is publicly committed to driving the ~20% figure lower. Any update on this number is the cleanest read on tariff-risk mitigation progress.
Marketplace GMV or seller-count disclosure — Lowe's has not yet quantified marketplace scale. First hard numbers (sellers, SKUs, GMV) would convert this from narrative to model input.
Pro comp deceleration risk — pro outperformed at mid-single-digits this quarter, but management flagged that pros feel "a little less confident." If pro comp converges toward total comp, the most credible growth pillar weakens.
Sources
- Lowe's Q1 2025 Press Release / 10-Q exhibit, filed May 21, 2025 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/60667/000006066725000091/exhibit991-05022025.htm
Get the next brief, free.
We publish analyst-grade earnings briefs the same day or morning after every call — headline numbers, segment KPIs, Q&A highlights, and tone analysis. Free during beta.
This is not investment advice.